CJ Stroud & Coin Flips

[Sriracha]

If it is a true 50/50 coin - why is the 10th flip a bigger chance of being tails?

Here's a simple way to grasp the concept.

Let's say you're at a casino. Let's say you can place one of the following bets. Same bet, same return, same loss.
9 coin tosses, all heads
10 coin tosses all heads.

Would you bet that a coin flipped 9 times would return 9 heads,
or would you bet that a coin flipped 10 times would return 10 heads?

I would assume that all reasonable people would choose 9 times. Why risk losing on the 10th flip?

We can take the same thinking to QB draft crops. In any given year, it would be extremely rare for every first round QB to end up a long term starter in the NFL. Just as it would be extremely unlikely to flip a coin five times get five consecutive heads. Yes, each flip is a 50/50 proposition, but getting five in a row is highly unlikely and is not a 50/50 proposition.

So, if historical facts indicate not all of the 2023 first round QBs are going to be a success, we have to start trying to figure out which ones are not going to turn up heads. I've accepted the proof Stroud has presented that he is already a heads flip. Now the discussion becomes, of AR and Young, which is more likely to be a heads. So far AR looks more like a heads flip than Young.

That leaves us with an unfortunate scenario. To bet on Young being a success, you virtually have to bet right now that ten coin flips will return ten consecutive heads. I'd never make that bet.

I understand the concept, the one I replied just don’t make any sense to me in the context of the other posts in the quote with wordings etc.

To your last paragraph, I honestly just think it is way to soon to pass that judgement over young. It is 3 games in, a lot of football to be played.
You could end up being right.

Forgive me if I missed something in an earlier post but this seems like a pretty blatant example of the Gambler's Fallacy.

Each flip is an independent event so if you've already flipped heads 9 times in a row.. that doesn't change the likelihood it will flip heads again.

The 2020 QB class had: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts as known 'hits' already with Jordan Love trending towards being a hit, as well. The idea that "some of these guys have to miss" is a fallacy. It's unlikely to happen but definitely not impossible.

[Anteaters]

Forgive me if I missed something in an earlier post but this seems like a pretty blatant example of the Gambler's Fallacy.

Each flip is an independent event so if you've already flipped heads 9 times in a row.. that doesn't change the likelihood it will flip heads again.

You missed something. At the risk of going even further off topic ...

On second thought, nevermind. I can lead the horses to water but some just can't drink.

The bottom line is I personally think it is a very rare occurrence for all 1st round drafted QBs to become real life "hits". I feel the last 25 years of NFL drafts bears that out. Many people (fans and executives) always think they can see college prospects and predict which is guaranteed to be a very good pro player. More than half the time, they are wrong.

At this point, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Bryce or AR will not be very good professional players. FTR, I hope Bryce is the next great QB, because I'd like to see the Panthers have a winning team. I'm just saying the history of the NFL draft strongly indicates at least one of the teams that drafted a QB in the first round made a mistake. Right now, everyone agrees Stroud is a win.

...

[Sriracha]

Forgive me if I missed something in an earlier post but this seems like a pretty blatant example of the Gambler's Fallacy.

Each flip is an independent event so if you've already flipped heads 9 times in a row.. that doesn't change the likelihood it will flip heads again.

You missed something. At the risk of going even further off topic ...

On second thought, nevermind. I can lead the horses to water but some just can't drink.

The bottom line is I personally think it is a very rare occurrence for all 1st round drafted QBs to become real life "hits". I feel the last 25 years of NFL drafts bears that out. Many people (fans and executives) always think they can see college prospects and predict which is guaranteed to be a very good pro player. More than half the time, they are wrong.

At this point, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Bryce or AR will not be very good professional players. FTR, I hope Bryce is the next great QB, because I'd like to see the Panthers have a winning team. I'm just saying the history of the NFL draft strongly indicates at least one of the teams that drafted a QB in the first round made a mistake. Right now, everyone agrees Stroud is a win.

...

Based on historical data I agree there is a decent chance any 1st round QB busts in any given draft class.. but they will bust because they just didn't make it in the NFL not because QB X from the same draft class already hit.

Each player is an individual and the success of other players from the same draft class does not impact their performance on the field because this isn't a zero sum game.

I go back to the 2020 draft class, again. If you were to say that 4 QBs would be looked at as franchise QBs 3 years into their career people would rightfully have told you that's a ridiculous expecatation.. but here we are. Burrow, Herbert, and Hurts have already gotten blockbuster contracts and Tua isn't far behind. Jordan Love may even add his name to the list if he continues to play at this level. Just because Burrow and Herbert hit in year 1 did not neccessitate that Hurts, Tua and Love were assuredly busts. They still had the same chances to hit as they did when they first arrived in the NFL because like the previous coinflips their chance of success is an indepent event.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

deleted.

rubbish nerd subjective crap.

[Anteaters]

2022: Pickett
2021: Lawrence, ZWilson, Lance, Fields, MJones
2020: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love
2019: KMurray, DJones, Haskins
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, JAllen, Rosen, LJackson
2017: Trubinsky, Mahomes, DWatson
2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch
2015: Winston, Mariota
2014: Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater
2013: EJManuel
2012: Luck, RGIII, Tannehill, Weeden
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010: Bradford, Tebow

That's a lot of drafts. In only 1 out of 13 drafts on this list (2020) can anyone claim that every 1st round QB was a good pick. Maybe the 2022 draft where Pickett was the only QB taken in the first round, if you want to consider him a very good QB. But even that reach leaves history as proving that in almost every draft with multiple 1st round QBs had at least one of those QBs ending up a bad pick.

Bringing that back to 2023, we can go against the convincing proof of history and make the premature call that all three 2023 first round QBs will be good real world QBs. Or we can assume history is right and at least one of the 2023 QBs will not be as good as his GM thought on draft day.

Almost everyone considers Stroud to be a win. If history is right, who do we think the second win will be and who will be the flop?

[Sriracha]

2022: Pickett
2021: Lawrence, ZWilson, Lance, Fields, MJones
2020: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love
2019: KMurray, DJones, Haskins
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, JAllen, Rosen, LJackson
2017: Trubinsky, Mahomes, DWatson
2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch
2015: Winston, Mariota
2014: Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater
2013: EJManuel
2012: Luck, RGIII, Tannehill, Weeden
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010: Bradford, Tebow

That's a lot of drafts. In only 1 out of 13 drafts on this list (2020) can anyone claim that every 1st round QB was a good pick. Maybe the 2022 draft where Pickett was the only QB taken in the first round, if you want to consider him a very good QB. But even that reach leaves history as proving that in almost every draft with multiple 1st round QBs had at least one of those QBs ending up a bad pick.

Bringing that back to 2023, we can go against the convincing proof of history and make the premature call that all three 2023 first round QBs will be good real world QBs. Or we can assume history is right and at least one of the 2023 QBs will not be as good as his GM thought on draft day.

Almost everyone considers Stroud to be a win. If history is right, who do we think the second win will be and who will be the flop?

In this case you are correlating draft capital with hit rate.. correlation does not equal causation.

As for Bryce.. it's not looking good right now but it's too early to tell. I think he needs to add some weight because he falls to a light breeze .. but if he fails to live up to his draft status I'm not going to say that it's because of Stroud's success

[Shcritters]

2022: Pickett
2021: Lawrence, ZWilson, Lance, Fields, MJones
2020: Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love
2019: KMurray, DJones, Haskins
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, JAllen, Rosen, LJackson
2017: Trubinsky, Mahomes, DWatson
2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch
2015: Winston, Mariota
2014: Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater
2013: EJManuel
2012: Luck, RGIII, Tannehill, Weeden
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010: Bradford, Tebow

That's a lot of drafts. In only 1 out of 13 drafts on this list (2020) can anyone claim that every 1st round QB was a good pick. Maybe the 2022 draft where Pickett was the only QB taken in the first round, if you want to consider him a very good QB. But even that reach leaves history as proving that in almost every draft with multiple 1st round QBs had at least one of those QBs ending up a bad pick.

Bringing that back to 2023, we can go against the convincing proof of history and make the premature call that all three 2023 first round QBs will be good real world QBs. Or we can assume history is right and at least one of the 2023 QBs will not be as good as his GM thought on draft day.

Almost everyone considers Stroud to be a win. If history is right, who do we think the second win will be and who will be the flop?

In this case you are correlating draft capital with hit rate.. correlation does not equal causation.

As for Bryce.. it's not looking good right now but it's too early to tell. I think he needs to add some weight because he falls to a light breeze .. but if he fails to live up to his draft status I'm not going to say that it's because of Stroud's success

Young may fall over due to a breeze, but he’s still stronger in the pocket than Wilson who falls over when people look at him!

[trc]

Forgive me if I missed something in an earlier post but this seems like a pretty blatant example of the Gambler's Fallacy.

Each flip is an independent event so if you've already flipped heads 9 times in a row.. that doesn't change the likelihood it will flip heads again.

You missed something. At the risk of going even further off topic ...

On second thought, nevermind. I can lead the horses to water but some just can't drink.

The bottom line is I personally think it is a very rare occurrence for all 1st round drafted QBs to become real life "hits". I feel the last 25 years of NFL drafts bears that out. Many people (fans and executives) always think they can see college prospects and predict which is guaranteed to be a very good pro player. More than half the time, they are wrong.

At this point, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Bryce or AR will not be very good professional players. FTR, I hope Bryce is the next great QB, because I'd like to see the Panthers have a winning team. I'm just saying the history of the NFL draft strongly indicates at least one of the teams that drafted a QB in the first round made a mistake. Right now, everyone agrees Stroud is a win.

...

You are the only one saying, that because Stroud looks like a win then the likelihood of AR or Young becomes a win is smaller… Quite frankly that is nonsense.
Otherwise the opposite is also true, that if Stroud and AR falls flat remaining of their career, the likelihood of Young becoming a win is bigger.

I fully understand that strategically in FF it could make sense to act on that historical info. Some do others don’t.

[Jigga94]

So that's why Ryan Leaf didn't work out!

[honcho55]

Forgive me if I missed something in an earlier post but this seems like a pretty blatant example of the Gambler's Fallacy.

Each flip is an independent event so if you've already flipped heads 9 times in a row.. that doesn't change the likelihood it will flip heads again.

You missed something. At the risk of going even further off topic ...

On second thought, nevermind. I can lead the horses to water but some just can't drink.

The bottom line is I personally think it is a very rare occurrence for all 1st round drafted QBs to become real life "hits". I feel the last 25 years of NFL drafts bears that out. Many people (fans and executives) always think they can see college prospects and predict which is guaranteed to be a very good pro player. More than half the time, they are wrong.

At this point, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Bryce or AR will not be very good professional players. FTR, I hope Bryce is the next great QB, because I'd like to see the Panthers have a winning team. I'm just saying the history of the NFL draft strongly indicates at least one of the teams that drafted a QB in the first round made a mistake. Right now, everyone agrees Stroud is a win.

...

I vote we go further off topic. This is textbook Gamblers Fallacy, no? Would like to hear why it might not be. The reason not all QBs from a year are good is because most QBs aren’t good, period. (Relatively speaking of course, only the top 50 in the *world* at a given time have a shred of fantasy relevance). I’d think you could easily look at overall bust rates, compare it to bust rates of 1st rounders from a class where a fellow 1st rounder turned out, and see this to be overwhelmingly true. Again, interested to hear ya explain more, not trying to be a dick.

I guess to contribute a blip to the on-topic, I have seen a lot to like from Young too. Needs to progress and probably add weight, but by no means am I giving up on him already.

AR is almost for sure gonna be at least decently startable in fantasy for a few years imo, based on rushing.

[mild]

Great discussion here by Robert Mays and Chase Daniel on Stroud's impressive 3 game start:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IFt2TB41xA

Takeaway sensationalist headline:
"I'm getting Joe Burrow vibes"

[Anteaters]

I vote we go further off topic. This is textbook Gamblers Fallacy, no? Would like to hear why it might not be. The reason not all QBs from a year are good is because most QBs aren’t good, period. (Relatively speaking of course, only the top 50 in the *world* at a given time have a shred of fantasy relevance). I’d think you could easily look at overall bust rates, compare it to bust rates of 1st rounders from a class where a fellow 1st rounder turned out, and see this to be overwhelmingly true. Again, interested to hear ya explain more, not trying to be a dick.

I guess to contribute a blip to the on-topic, I have seen a lot to like from Young too. Needs to progress and probably add weight, but by no means am I giving up on him already.

AR is almost for sure gonna be at least decently startable in fantasy for a few years imo, based on rushing.

I'll try again, but it feels like repeating the same stuff in a slightly different way.

Focusing on the bold, I think it's a good idea to focus on bust rates in framing this discussion. When considering bust rates, we have to wait until time has passed to determine which player was a bust. For instance, prior to week 1, we really couldn't make the call which first round players were going to be a bust. But we know some will bust, because some always bust.

It's a mistake to focus on hindsight to determine whether or not most QBs aren't good. By virtue of being a first round QB, that QB was thought to be extremely good by the team that drafted him. At the time of the draft, each team that drafts a QB in the first round thinks it has resolved its starting QB role for the next decade. But the stats of history clearly say at least half of all QBs chosen in the first round will bust.

The list I posted earlier listed 40 QBs drafted in the first round over thirteen drafts. Twenty-one are straight out busts or journeymen. That's not counting a guy like Bridgewater who hasn't been healthy enough to be a talent-related bust. Or Pickett who is only in his second season, so I'll give him time to complete his bust cycle become calling him a bust. But it does include Mayfield/Winston/Wentz, because if the team that drafted you doesn't want you, they made a mistake drafting you which makes each of them a bust. Goff is not included as a bust because unlike those three, Goff was never benched or converted to a back-up QB.

Again, that's a bust rate for 1st round QBs of over 50%. And only once has a draft that had multiple first-round QBs not had at least one bust. Taking those two factors into consideration, logic dictates at least one of the three first-round QB in 2023 will not be a good pro.

I'm not going to put blind faith in analysts' opinions of these three QBs. Virtually all analysts say nothing to indicate they thought (at draft time) that any of these three would bust. The analysts were higher on one or two, but there was no consensus that any of these three would be a bust.

BACK ON TOPIC
How about Stroud in week 4? More proof that CJ is not the QB bust of the 2023 draft. Four games and not one INT.

[Anteaters]

Most Passing Yards For a QB in His First Four Games
1386 - Newton
1212 - Stroud
1208 - Luck
1195 - JHerbert
1180 - Mahomes

[FantasyFreak]

Most Passing Yards For a QB in His First Four Games
1386 - Newton
1212 - Stroud
1208 - Luck
1195 - JHerbert
1180 - Mahomes

Historical stats are near pointless, these days, the game has changed so drastically in favour of the passing game, with rules etc. Newton's is actually the most impressive, considering. Stroud looks legit, but it's just like Mahomes being the first to 200 passing TD's. While he's the best QB of this era, no doubt, hitting 200 passing TD's in the 80's is different to now, the game and rules have changed so much.

[Jigga94]

Get off my lawn