Zig While Others Zag

[Jigga94]

Kincaid is obviously a superior talent to Knox while Musgrave and Kraft are closer. I would be worried that Knox takes red zone opportunities from Kincaid though. He seems like a great between the 20s TE

[PigeonBoys]

That's a good point.

could this be a similar trending to a Knox/Kincaid situation once Musgrave is back? Something certainly great for GB as a team but dicey for FF managers?

Maybe but it almost feels worse. I've said my piece on Musgrave/Kraft. They don't appear poised to be particularly FF relevant in '24. Outside of the top-15 in redraft ranks for example.

The Kincaid thing seems a little different. The narrative during draft season was that BUF wanted the best pass catcher they could get at that point in the draft and concluded it was Kincaid over the available WRs.

What's frustrating for Kincaid managers is he ended up receiving the 2nd most targets on the team (usually a harbinger of fantasy TE success), caught 80% of the targets BUT suffered from terrible TD rates. He caught 2 on 83 targets whereas Gabe Davis caught 7 on 79! When you look at the targets per snap Kincaid is at 12.6% and Knox is at 7.3%. They clearly prefer Kincaid in the passing game and his results warrant that.

The TD production is what killed him. Through week 17 he is TE8 in receptions, TE13 in yards and TE25 on TDs. The problem is that is xTD is only 2.5 (Dec 26 data so maybe slightly higher now). It's like he's the trap back version of a TE. Empty touches.

I'm holding out hope on Kincaid. I think we'd be a little less upset if he'd caught a few more TDs and if LaPorta hadn't vaulted to TE1 status in dynasty. I'd still be happy to roster him if I could.

I'm noticing some oddities in the Bills RZ scheme. TE's got a total of 17 RZ targets, David Njoku himself had 17 RZ targets (9 kincaid, 7 for Knox) for the sake of reference and Jake Ferguson led TE's with 22. Allen attempted 10th most passes inside the 20 but the stats dwindle hard inside the 10. Allen only had 26 attempts from inside the 10, one less than Kirk Cousins who played much less than half the year. Allen actually had twice as many TD's inside the 20 than inside the 10. It looks like maybe there will be some positive regression for Kincaid but Allen runs alot in the RZ and they don't appear to throw around the GL. Just kind of weird as I thought they would have spent a whole lot more time throwing the ball in the RZ.

[TheTroll]

could this be a similar trending to a Knox/Kincaid situation once Musgrave is back? Something certainly great for GB as a team but dicey for FF managers?

Maybe but it almost feels worse. I've said my piece on Musgrave/Kraft. They don't appear poised to be particularly FF relevant in '24. Outside of the top-15 in redraft ranks for example.

The Kincaid thing seems a little different. The narrative during draft season was that BUF wanted the best pass catcher they could get at that point in the draft and concluded it was Kincaid over the available WRs.

What's frustrating for Kincaid managers is he ended up receiving the 2nd most targets on the team (usually a harbinger of fantasy TE success), caught 80% of the targets BUT suffered from terrible TD rates. He caught 2 on 83 targets whereas Gabe Davis caught 7 on 79! When you look at the targets per snap Kincaid is at 12.6% and Knox is at 7.3%. They clearly prefer Kincaid in the passing game and his results warrant that.

The TD production is what killed him. Through week 17 he is TE8 in receptions, TE13 in yards and TE25 on TDs. The problem is that is xTD is only 2.5 (Dec 26 data so maybe slightly higher now). It's like he's the trap back version of a TE. Empty touches.

I'm holding out hope on Kincaid. I think we'd be a little less upset if he'd caught a few more TDs and if LaPorta hadn't vaulted to TE1 status in dynasty. I'd still be happy to roster him if I could.

I'm noticing some oddities in the Bills RZ scheme. TE's got a total of 17 RZ targets, David Njoku himself had 17 RZ targets (9 kincaid, 7 for Knox) for the sake of reference and Jake Ferguson led TE's with 22. Allen attempted 10th most passes inside the 20 but the stats dwindle hard inside the 10. Allen only had 26 attempts from inside the 10, one less than Kirk Cousins who played much less than half the year. Allen actually had twice as many TD's inside the 20 than inside the 10. It looks like maybe there will be some positive regression for Kincaid but Allen runs alot in the RZ and they don't appear to throw around the GL. Just kind of weird as I thought they would have spent a whole lot more time throwing the ball in the RZ.

you are right...inside the 10 it's the Allen running show. CLE and DAL dont have the same kind of QBs inside the 10

[mild]

What if they're both really good?

Great to see the big Mus' back in action this weekend.

I think if you're holding either of these guys, you're pretty happy you've got a pass catcher attached to the best QB in the NFC North.

[FantasyFreak]

What if they're both really good?

Great to see the big Mus' back in action this weekend.

I think if you're holding either of these guys, you're pretty happy you've got a pass catcher attached to the best QB in the NFC North.

Was about to bump this.

The Pack have a dangerous young offense.

[Bronco Billy]

What if they're both really good?

Great to see the big Mus' back in action this weekend.

I think if you're holding either of these guys, you're pretty happy you've got a pass catcher attached to the best QB in the NFC North.

Was about to bump this.

The Pack have a dangerous young offense.

I honestly don’t know how they can be defensed going into next season. Love is perfectly willing to throw to anyone and everyone and they’ve got a HC who’s perfectly comfortable to design a play where his QB intentionally throws all the way across the field because they set the table so well.

The problem in going to be figuring out who can be counted on to be an impact FF player every week other than Love and their starting RB.

[FantasyFreak]

What if they're both really good?

Great to see the big Mus' back in action this weekend.

I think if you're holding either of these guys, you're pretty happy you've got a pass catcher attached to the best QB in the NFC North.

Was about to bump this.

The Pack have a dangerous young offense.

I honestly don’t know how they can be defensed going into next season. Love is perfectly willing to throw to anyone and everyone and they’ve got a HC who’s perfectly comfortable to design a play where his QB intentionally throws all the way across the field because they set the table so well.

The problem in going to be figuring out who can be counted on to be an impact FF player every week other than Love and their starting RB.

Thing I like about Love is, the biggest concern, at least to me was, during that lull, mid-season, that he'd get more and more wild, and out of structure. But the opposite occurred. He learned how to read leverage better, play within structure, became more accurate due to a faster processing of that, which also led to better mechanics, and learned when he needed to go out of structure.

WC offense depends on timing and accuracy, and he's gotten so much better at that, but he's also been able to make elite plays outside of structure, by learning better how to play within it. This is huge.

It also may be a blessing in disguise that he didn't have a "star" WR, that he just focused on, I think it was a risk, he was asked to do a lot, with young WR's, but the end result is he read the coverage, not singling in on the "star WR" to bail him out, and it's helped his development.

This is the scary thing about it. It's not like there's a Tyreek, or Kelce, or Adams, or Diggs that some of these other top end QB's had.

He's showing all the signs of being elite, and Lafleur's job looks very secure right now.

They've done a fantastic job.

[TheTroll]

I will be honest…Love has just enough Zig/Zag to see one of his weapons wide @ss open to throw to. It was uncanny.

[mild]

"Musgrave stayed on his feet!"

-locker room cheers-



https://x.com/packers/status/1746983809239724203?s=20

That's good stuff.