Aidan O'Connell: The Man, The Myth, The Legend

[Dynasty DeLorean]

First year starting

Player A
63% Completion Percentage
189 ypg
18 tds
12 INTs

Player B
62% Completion Percentage
201 ypg
12 tds
7 INTs


Player B is Aiden OConnel
Player A? Just some guy named Tom Brady…

[FantasyFreak]

First year starting

Player A
63% Completion Percentage
189 ypg
18 tds
12 INTs

Player B
62% Completion Percentage
201 ypg
12 tds
7 INTs


Player B is Aiden OConnel
Player A? Just some guy named Tom Brady…

I look forward to yearly updates on this. Let's also not forget it objectively easier to pass the football in 2023 than it was in 2001.

[Anteaters]

As a follow-up to Anteaters' far more essential points, I mostly agree with your suggestions but disagree with your conclusion.

I'm with you: the draft is a crapshoot, and I'm not sure that any incoming rookie QB beyond the top 3 (or whatever the number is) is less likely to fail than AOC. I also agree that using (wasting?) top-round picks on QBs who are long-shots is a way to continue to deplete the overall talent of the team. We might be off on some nuances, but I think we're on the same page with those two points. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

Not wrong on that.

Here's where we differ. The Packers season was successful and the Bears season was not. IMO, the success / failure has little to do with team record or the outcome of the game yesterday. The Packers are confident they have their QB for the future -- and a damn good one, one who can lead the team to January wins. The Bears, I have to imagine, have no such confidence. The only real question for a team like the Packers, Bears, Panthers, Texans, etc. in 2023 was whether they have their long-term QB. The team's record is secondary.

Agreed

I'll grant that AOC only had a few games rather than the whole season. And I'll grant that, with a full year in 2024, he could show that he's the guy. The question here isn't whether or not picking a QB in the early rounds or signing a free agent is going to net you a better QB than AOC. The question is whether or not you (well, the Raiders!) think that AOC is the guy to lead them forward -- or has earned the 2024 year to prove or disprove it.

Agreed

That's what the Falcons and Commanders did. They felt like they saw enough (or invested enough) in Ridder and Howell to give them both a shot despite limited playing time in 2022. And I anticipate that's what the Titans will do with Levis in 2024. The Raiders could go that way for sure. If, though, they're confident AOC is NOT the guy, then it's a wasted year giving him that opportunity regardless of the other options. If you're sure AOC isn't the solution, then the worst thing is keep trying it anyway.

Sort of agree. Last offseason, I don't think either the Falcons or Commanders felt Ridder/Howell were the long term answers for their teams. I don't think either believed Ridder/Howell could grow into a competent quarterback. Both those guys have critical flaws and I think (regarding Ridder especially) the teams' GMs+coaches knew they needed a better QB.

The problem is there really were not any satisfying options. No smart GM would have contemplated bringing in Aaron Rodgers. Mayfield is a nice story, but no one looks at him and says "that's my QB for the next six years." Neither team was in a position to move up in the draft for one of the top3 rookie QBs without giving up a ransom.

The smart solution for both would have been to make an offer to Lamar Jackson, but ... well, you know ... collusion.

So they were left with bringing in veteran career backups for "competition" and (to themselves) admitting 2023 was going to be a lost season.

Likewise, I do not think Tennessee believes in Levis. I was already leaning toward believing ownership/GM/HC lacked confidence, but the firing of Vrabel gave me all the proof I needed. No smart decision maker gets rid of a successful coach inbetween a QB's first and second season if that decision maker truly believes in the QB. Tennessee is going to do what Washington/Atlanta did this season and call a losing season before week 1 even begins, and look toward a magical QB solution next offseason. I don't really like Levis' game. I think he's too much of a risk taker, doesn't consistently see the defense well, and I don't think he will be able to correct these flaws. I don't think he will ever be able to process quickly enough to consistently make good decisions.

That being said, if there's any realistic belief or optimism that AOC could be the guy, then, as long as the draft / free agency doesn't offer them a clearer better option, I could see them rolling with AOC next year.

If AP is signed as the HC, I think that is a tacit admission that the team believes in AOC and plans to roll with AOC for 2024.

Ultimately, if given the opportunity in 2024, I imagine AOC will follow the Mills / Ridder / Howell path rather than the Hurts path. If that's the case, better to already look elsewhere in 2024 even if the new player ends up being worse than AOC.

I agree with the last sentence. If the team does not believe in AOC, bring in a Brissett/Heinike and do the QB-bumble through the a 7-10 season of ineptitude.

I disagree with the first sentence. I've watched a decent amount of AOC this season and he plays with a lot more control, poise and patience than either Ridder or Howell. And AOC is simply a better QB than Mills, who is a competent backup but should never be a team's opening day starting QB.

All hyperbole aside about AOC being a legend in the making, I think he has shown the tools/skill/fooballIQ necessary to be a dependable long term answer at QB for LV or another team. I think he could land in that Goff/Carr/Garropolo/(a healthy)Bridgewater area. That kind of QB can lead a good roster toward the playoffs in multiple years. No, not going to say he can grow to the elitism Hurts displayed in 2022, but I wouldn't say there is a QB available that can reasonably be predicted to do that, so that's kind of a moot point.

What's not moot is AOC is, as of today, objectively the best QB Las Vegas can reasonably presume to roster going into the 2024 season. And if given the chance, I've seen enough to think he has a much better chance than the erratic Howell and the unaware Ridder, at seizing his moment. AOC simply doesn't make the same kind of fundamental drive-killing errors those guys repeatedly make.

Add in the added team benefits of planning on starting AOC in week 1 (not wasting an early draft pick on a predictably inadequate QB solution, not wasting valuable cap space on a not-good-enough veteran, providing the offense and QB with some much need continuity going into the 2024 season) and I don't see a logical reason why LV would not make the decision now to roll with AOC.

Now, if Kyler suddenly becomes available, I could be persuaded to change my mind.

[Paul717]

As a follow-up to Anteaters' far more essential points, I mostly agree with your suggestions but disagree with your conclusion.

I'm with you: the draft is a crapshoot, and I'm not sure that any incoming rookie QB beyond the top 3 (or whatever the number is) is less likely to fail than AOC. I also agree that using (wasting?) top-round picks on QBs who are long-shots is a way to continue to deplete the overall talent of the team. We might be off on some nuances, but I think we're on the same page with those two points. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

Not wrong on that.

Here's where we differ. The Packers season was successful and the Bears season was not. IMO, the success / failure has little to do with team record or the outcome of the game yesterday. The Packers are confident they have their QB for the future -- and a damn good one, one who can lead the team to January wins. The Bears, I have to imagine, have no such confidence. The only real question for a team like the Packers, Bears, Panthers, Texans, etc. in 2023 was whether they have their long-term QB. The team's record is secondary.

Agreed

I'll grant that AOC only had a few games rather than the whole season. And I'll grant that, with a full year in 2024, he could show that he's the guy. The question here isn't whether or not picking a QB in the early rounds or signing a free agent is going to net you a better QB than AOC. The question is whether or not you (well, the Raiders!) think that AOC is the guy to lead them forward -- or has earned the 2024 year to prove or disprove it.

Agreed

That's what the Falcons and Commanders did. They felt like they saw enough (or invested enough) in Ridder and Howell to give them both a shot despite limited playing time in 2022. And I anticipate that's what the Titans will do with Levis in 2024. The Raiders could go that way for sure. If, though, they're confident AOC is NOT the guy, then it's a wasted year giving him that opportunity regardless of the other options. If you're sure AOC isn't the solution, then the worst thing is keep trying it anyway.

Sort of agree. Last offseason, I don't think either the Falcons or Commanders felt Ridder/Howell were the long term answers for their teams. I don't think either believed Ridder/Howell could grow into a competent quarterback. Both those guys have critical flaws and I think (regarding Ridder especially) the teams' GMs+coaches knew they needed a better QB.

The problem is there really were not any satisfying options. No smart GM would have contemplated bringing in Aaron Rodgers. Mayfield is a nice story, but no one looks at him and says "that's my QB for the next six years." Neither team was in a position to move up in the draft for one of the top3 rookie QBs without giving up a ransom.

The smart solution for both would have been to make an offer to Lamar Jackson, but ... well, you know ... collusion.

So they were left with bringing in veteran career backups for "competition" and (to themselves) admitting 2023 was going to be a lost season.

Likewise, I do not think Tennessee believes in Levis. I was already leaning toward believing ownership/GM/HC lacked confidence, but the firing of Vrabel gave me all the proof I needed. No smart decision maker gets rid of a successful coach inbetween a QB's first and second season if that decision maker truly believes in the QB. Tennessee is going to do what Washington/Atlanta did this season and call a losing season before week 1 even begins, and look toward a magical QB solution next offseason. I don't really like Levis' game. I think he's too much of a risk taker, doesn't consistently see the defense well, and I don't think he will be able to correct these flaws. I don't think he will ever be able to process quickly enough to consistently make good decisions.

That being said, if there's any realistic belief or optimism that AOC could be the guy, then, as long as the draft / free agency doesn't offer them a clearer better option, I could see them rolling with AOC next year.

If AP is signed as the HC, I think that is a tacit admission that the team believes in AOC and plans to roll with AOC for 2024.

Ultimately, if given the opportunity in 2024, I imagine AOC will follow the Mills / Ridder / Howell path rather than the Hurts path. If that's the case, better to already look elsewhere in 2024 even if the new player ends up being worse than AOC.

I agree with the last sentence. If the team does not believe in AOC, bring in a Brissett/Heinike and do the QB-bumble through the a 7-10 season of ineptitude.

I disagree with the first sentence. I've watched a decent amount of AOC this season and he plays with a lot more control, poise and patience than either Ridder or Howell. And AOC is simply a better QB than Mills, who is a competent backup but should never be a team's opening day starting QB.

All hyperbole aside about AOC being a legend in the making, I think he has shown the tools/skill/fooballIQ necessary to be a dependable long term answer at QB for LV or another team. I think he could land in that Goff/Carr/Garropolo/(a healthy)Bridgewater area. That kind of QB can lead a good roster toward the playoffs in multiple years. No, not going to say he can grow to the elitism Hurts displayed in 2022, but I wouldn't say there is a QB available that can reasonably be predicted to do that, so that's kind of a moot point.

What's not moot is AOC is, as of today, objectively the best QB Las Vegas can reasonably presume to roster going into the 2024 season. And if given the chance, I've seen enough to think he has a much better chance than the erratic Howell and the unaware Ridder, at seizing his moment. AOC simply doesn't make the same kind of fundamental drive-killing errors those guys repeatedly make.

Add in the added team benefits of planning on starting AOC in week 1 (not wasting an early draft pick on a predictably inadequate QB solution, not wasting valuable cap space on a not-good-enough veteran, providing the offense and QB with some much need continuity going into the 2024 season) and I don't see a logical reason why LV would not make the decision now to roll with AOC.

Now, if Kyler suddenly becomes available, I could be persuaded to change my mind.

Great dialogue here gents. This situation will be interesting to monitor over the next several weeks / months.

[moishetreats]

Thanks for your thoughtful reply, Anteaters!! (I'll reply below -- I love this conversation!! -- editing out some of the things for brevity's sake.)

Sort of agree. Last offseason, I don't think either the Falcons or Commanders felt Ridder/Howell were the long term answers for their teams. I don't think either believed Ridder/Howell could grow into a competent quarterback. Both those guys have critical flaws and I think (regarding Ridder especially) the teams' GMs+coaches knew they needed a better QB.

The problem is there really were not any satisfying options. No smart GM would have contemplated bringing in Aaron Rodgers. Mayfield is a nice story, but no one looks at him and says "that's my QB for the next six years." Neither team was in a position to move up in the draft for one of the top3 rookie QBs without giving up a ransom.

...So they were left with bringing in veteran career backups for "competition" and (to themselves) admitting 2023 was going to be a lost season.

Likewise, I do not think Tennessee believes in Levis.

Agreed. I like how you wrote that. With Baker, I might slightly amend it and write, "No one looked at him..." I do wonder what TB thinks about him now. But that's a divergence, and your larger point remains.

Ultimately, if given the opportunity in 2024, I imagine AOC will follow the Mills / Ridder / Howell path rather than the Hurts path. If that's the case, better to already look elsewhere in 2024 even if the new player ends up being worse than AOC.

All hyperbole aside about AOC being a legend in the making, I think he has shown the tools/skill/fooballIQ necessary to be a dependable long term answer at QB for LV or another team. I think he could land in that Goff/Carr/Garropolo/(a healthy)Bridgewater area. That kind of QB can lead a good roster toward the playoffs in multiple years. No, not going to say he can grow to the elitism Hurts displayed in 2022, but I wouldn't say there is a QB available that can reasonably be predicted to do that, so that's kind of a moot point.

If Goff/Carr/JG, etc. is the realistic expectation for AOC, then I'm with and would absolutely roll with him in 2024 (barring a surprisingly better option).

So I think our major not-quite-on-the-same-page is our realistic expecations for AOC. If the Raiders see him the way you do, then I'm fully on board with starting him in 2024. If not, then I'd roll the dice on someone else (we agree better not to spend/waste a premium pick to overdraft a QB) on the slight chance that the new QB could be better than expected.

Thanks again for the conversation!

[Anteaters]

Good news for legend watchers. Kliff Klingsbury is rumored to be in line to be the next offensive coordinator for the Raiders.

[CGW]

Good news for legend watchers. Kliff Klingsbury is rumored to be in line to be the next offensive coordinator for the Raiders.

Is it? Hopefully, he's a better NFL OC this time around than he was HC. I do hope Pierce keeps that job though. He did a really good job in a tough situation. The team loves him.

[Anteaters]

Good news for legend watchers. Kliff Klingsbury is rumored to be in line to be the next offensive coordinator for the Raiders.

Is it? Hopefully, he's a better NFL OC this time around than he was HC. I do hope Pierce keeps that job though. He did a really good job in a tough situation. The team loves him.

I think KK is one of those guys who is a better coordinator than head coach. I guess the question, which you went at, is whether or not KK is actually a good NFL OC. My bet is yes, but I guess we really don't know right now.

[FantasyFreak]

Good news for legend watchers. Kliff Klingsbury is rumored to be in line to be the next offensive coordinator for the Raiders.

I don't understand how you can hire an OC, before you hire a GM or a HC. This makes so little sense. I heard that's IF AP is hired as HC, which would make more sense.

[Anteaters]

Good news for legend watchers. Kliff Klingsbury is rumored to be in line to be the next offensive coordinator for the Raiders.

I don't understand how you can hire an OC, before you hire a GM or a HC. This makes so little sense. I heard that's IF AP is hired as HC, which would make more sense.

Yeah, I assume the KK angle only happens if AP is retained as head coach.

[mild]

What is dead may never die. Long live the King.

Gardner Minshew’s contract with the Raiders is worth up to $25 million, with $15 million guaranteed.

That’s also known as starter money for the journeyman quarterback. While head coach Antonio Pierce might talk up a training camp battle between Minshew and Aidan O’Connell, Minshew is all but certain to start Week 1 for Vegas.

[hankmurphy]

I’m going on record that Gardner Minshew is terrible.

[FantasyFreak]

Don't be surprised if the Raiders draft a QB, as well.

[mild]

I’m going on record that Gardner Minshew is terrible.

Of course.

Which is why, if AOC is truly the next coming of TB12, he'll have no problem beating him out for backup duties to the new rookie.

And if he can't do that, then he wasn't meant to stick in the league anyway.

The funniest part here is still that the Raiders looked at both Fields and Minschew and decided Minschew was the better move.

[TheTroll]

I’m going on record that Gardner Minshew is terrible.

Of course.

Which is why, if AOC is truly the next coming of TB12, he'll have no problem beating him out for backup duties to the new rookie.

And if he can't do that, then he wasn't meant to stick in the league anyway.

The funniest part here is still that the Raiders looked at both Fields and Minschew and decided Minschew was the better move.

Totally agree! I’m shaking my head