Aidan O'Connell: The Man, The Myth, The Legend

[moishetreats]

In 2020, the third QB went 1.06. Love went 1.26 to a team that was willing to invest three seasons of bench education time in his development - we know the Raiders (and almost every other nfl team) aren't looking to sit any QB they draft in the 1st round. Hurts was a miracle find in the back of the 3rd round.

Very, very, very small clarification (and not essential for your main point, which I'll address in another post). Hurts was drafted at the end of the 2nd round.

[moishetreats]

As a follow-up to Anteaters' far more essential points, I mostly agree with your suggestions but disagree with your conclusion.

I'm with you: the draft is a crapshoot, and I'm not sure that any incoming rookie QB beyond the top 3 (or whatever the number is) is less likely to fail than AOC. I also agree that using (wasting?) top-round picks on QBs who are long-shots is a way to continue to deplete the overall talent of the team. We might be off on some nuances, but I think we're on the same page with those two points. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

Here's where we differ. The Packers season was successful and the Bears season was not. IMO, the success / failure has little to do with team record or the outcome of the game yesterday. The Packers are confident they have their QB for the future -- and a damn good one, one who can lead the team to January wins. The Bears, I have to imagine, have no such confidence. The only real question for a team like the Packers, Bears, Panthers, Texans, etc. in 2023 was whether they have their long-term QB. The team's record is secondary.

I'll grant that AOC only had a few games rather than the whole season. And I'll grant that, with a full year in 2024, he could show that he's the guy. The question here isn't whether or not picking a QB in the early rounds or signing a free agent is going to net you a better QB than AOC. The question is whether or not you (well, the Raiders!) think that AOC is the guy to lead them forward -- or has earned the 2024 year to prove or disprove it.

That's what the Falcons and Commanders did. They felt like they saw enough (or invested enough) in Ridder and Howell to give them both a shot despite limited playing time in 2022. And I anticipate that's what the Titans will do with Levis in 2024. The Raiders could go that way for sure. If, though, they're confident AOC is NOT the guy, then it's a wasted year giving him that opportunity regardless of the other options. If you're sure AOC isn't the solution, then the worst thing is keep trying it anyway.

That being said, if there's any realistic belief or optimism that AOC could be the guy, then, as long as the draft / free agency doesn't offer them a clearer better option, I could see them rolling with AOC next year.

Ultimately, if given the opportunity in 2024, I imagine AOC will follow the Mills / Ridder / Howell path rather than the Hurts path. If that's the case, better to already look elsewhere in 2024 even if the new player ends up being worse than AOC.

[Anteaters]

Could always trade up, to say 9, with the Bears, if a guy like Penix is still there. Justin Fields fell to 11, it happens. Guys don't always go where we think they will.

That's something to seems realistic and wouldn't require an severe overpay. A few things need to line up. The Raiders have to think Penix is good enough, he has to still be available, and the trade up price has to be reasonable.

I think Penix is the last of the 4 QBs worth a 1st round pick. One or two more will probably actually be selected in the first round, though probably at the tail end of the first unless a team reaches for one. After the first four, if I was a GM, I'd rather wait than reach for the fifth or sixth option.

I think the top 4 QBs are going to be drafted by 1.10, so the Raiders probably need to move up if they want one.

[FantasyFreak]

Could always trade up, to say 9, with the Bears, if a guy like Penix is still there. Justin Fields fell to 11, it happens. Guys don't always go where we think they will.

That's something to seems realistic and wouldn't require an severe overpay. A few things need to line up. The Raiders have to think Penix is good enough, he has to still be available, and the trade up price has to be reasonable.

I think Penix is the last of the 4 QBs worth a 1st round pick. One or two more will probably actually be selected in the first round, though probably at the tail end of the first unless a team reaches for one. After the first four, if I was a GM, I'd rather wait than reach for the fifth or sixth option.

I think the top 4 QBs are going to be drafted by 1.10, so the Raiders probably need to move up if they want one.

Penix was awful tonight, I think he lost draft stock, big time.

[TheTroll]

Could always trade up, to say 9, with the Bears, if a guy like Penix is still there. Justin Fields fell to 11, it happens. Guys don't always go where we think they will.

That's something to seems realistic and wouldn't require an severe overpay. A few things need to line up. The Raiders have to think Penix is good enough, he has to still be available, and the trade up price has to be reasonable.

I think Penix is the last of the 4 QBs worth a 1st round pick. One or two more will probably actually be selected in the first round, though probably at the tail end of the first unless a team reaches for one. After the first four, if I was a GM, I'd rather wait than reach for the fifth or sixth option.

I think the top 4 QBs are going to be drafted by 1.10, so the Raiders probably need to move up if they want one.

Penix was awful tonight, I think he lost draft stock, big time.

Agreed there… big stage…seize the moment flop

[mild]

Penix was awful tonight, I think he lost draft stock, big time.

I think he lost stock equal to what he gained last week against Texas.

I am still wildly fascinated by which OC / GM combo is going to say "I can work with him" in the NFL. There'll definitely still be somebody, and I think he's still a 1st rounder.

[FantasyFreak]

Penix was awful tonight, I think he lost draft stock, big time.

I think he lost stock equal to what he gained last week against Texas.

I am still wildly fascinated by which OC / GM combo is going to say "I can work with him" in the NFL. There'll definitely still be somebody, and I think he's still a 1st rounder.

I think so too, but a top 10 pick? He may fall to the Raiders at 13, or the Vikings just before that. I just don't think there are 4 top 10 QB's. At this time of year, QB's get pushed up, and usually, a few drop. Jordan Love being one, Fields another (though not so much). How many times have we seen 4 top 10 QB's recently? Is THIS the class? I think 2018 was the first time in 70 years 4 went in the first 10.

[mild]

I think he lost stock equal to what he gained last week against Texas.

I am still wildly fascinated by which OC / GM combo is going to say "I can work with him" in the NFL. There'll definitely still be somebody, and I think he's still a 1st rounder.

I think so too, but a top 10 pick? He may fall to the Raiders at 13, or the Vikings just before that. I just don't think there are 4 top 10 QB's. At this time of year, QB's get pushed up, and usually, a few drop. Jordan Love being one, Fields another (though not so much). How many times have we seen 4 top 10 QB's recently? Is THIS the class? I think 2018 was the first time in 70 years 4 went in the first 10.

I've never been sure he was Top 10 material, but I also don't find it outside the realm of possibility if the draft goes QB 1/2/3 and Atlanta are married to the idea of a rookie at 8.

I also think we shouldn't view modern drafts through the lens of the past precedent for these things. The draft is always evolving, and has been changing fast (just look at the run on WR's in recent drafts). Front offices are getting smarter and more aggressive with QB selections. If you're willing to take any QB in the 1st round, then it doesn't really matter what the draft slot is. That's your guy. If a QB is worth taking at 15, then he's worth taking at 8. All the weight of expectation / media hype is the same, and you're putting your franchise hopes in their hands. The slot quickly becomes irrelevant.

We had QB's 1/2/4 last year, and I think we're absolutely in line for 1/2/3 already this year. If not the Pats, then maybe someone trades up. It's only getting more desperate out there in QB land for the have-nots.

[FantasyFreak]

I think he lost stock equal to what he gained last week against Texas.

I am still wildly fascinated by which OC / GM combo is going to say "I can work with him" in the NFL. There'll definitely still be somebody, and I think he's still a 1st rounder.

I think so too, but a top 10 pick? He may fall to the Raiders at 13, or the Vikings just before that. I just don't think there are 4 top 10 QB's. At this time of year, QB's get pushed up, and usually, a few drop. Jordan Love being one, Fields another (though not so much). How many times have we seen 4 top 10 QB's recently? Is THIS the class? I think 2018 was the first time in 70 years 4 went in the first 10.

I've never been sure he was Top 10 material, but I also don't find it outside the realm of possibility if the draft goes QB 1/2/3 and Atlanta are married to the idea of a rookie at 8.

I also think we shouldn't view modern drafts through the lens of the past precedent for these things. The draft is always evolving, and has been changing fast (just look at the run on WR's in recent drafts). Front offices are getting smarter and more aggressive with QB selections. If you're willing to take any QB in the 1st round, then it doesn't really matter what the draft slot is. That's your guy. If a QB is worth taking at 15, then he's worth taking at 8. All the weight of expectation / media hype is the same, and you're putting your franchise hopes in their hands. The slot quickly becomes irrelevant.

We had QB's 1/2/4 last year, and I think we're absolutely in line for 1/2/3 already this year. If not the Pats, then maybe someone trades up. It's only getting more desperate out there in QB land for the have-nots.

Fair. As the rules get more QB based, it makes sense that they go higher. Every possible rule has been made to make the QB more important, so it's not far fetched to see drafts go that way. I mean, RB's used to go top 10 all the time, and a lot of them, that won't happen any more, so it makes sense that it can happen again. It may ultimately be seen as a reach, but it's not that bad to miss on a QB in the top 10 as it used to be, as RB's, for instance, hold so little value vs the "old days:"

[Anteaters]

Could always trade up, to say 9, with the Bears, if a guy like Penix is still there. Justin Fields fell to 11, it happens. Guys don't always go where we think they will.

That's something to seems realistic and wouldn't require an severe overpay. A few things need to line up. The Raiders have to think Penix is good enough, he has to still be available, and the trade up price has to be reasonable.

I think Penix is the last of the 4 QBs worth a 1st round pick. One or two more will probably actually be selected in the first round, though probably at the tail end of the first unless a team reaches for one. After the first four, if I was a GM, I'd rather wait than reach for the fifth or sixth option.

I think the top 4 QBs are going to be drafted by 1.10, so the Raiders probably need to move up if they want one.

Penix was awful tonight, I think he lost draft stock, big time.

Yeah.
(I keep typing and deleting responses, so I'll just say, for now, this is going to be an interesting draft)

[cazzie33]

Go Big or Go Home ... trade up for one of the top 3 !
If not stick w/ AOC & bring in veteran competition. Wentz, Brisset, Flacco and add a QB for camp in later rds( Nix,Travis ,etc...)

[Anteaters]

Go Big or Go Home ... trade up for one of the top 3 !
If not stick w/ AOC & bring in veteran competition. Wentz, Brisset, Flacco and add a QB for camp in later rds( Nix,Travis ,etc...)

That's my take on it. If the team isn't going to get one of the guys that go in the first five picks, they're wasting a first round pick to take whoever falls to 1.13. That doesn't make football sense to me.

If they don't plan to trade up for one of the top 3 QBs, sign a free agent QB as soon as possible, draft a QB in the 3rd, and go into camp with a competition. Reaching for a flawed guy in the mid or late part of the 1st round usually results in a wasted pick.

[CGW]

Go Big or Go Home ... trade up for one of the top 3 !
If not stick w/ AOC & bring in veteran competition. Wentz, Brisset, Flacco and add a QB for camp in later rds( Nix,Travis ,etc...)

That's my take on it. If the team isn't going to get one of the guys that go in the first five picks, they're wasting a first round pick to take whoever falls to 1.13. That doesn't make football sense to me.

If they don't plan to trade up for one of the top 3 QBs, sign a free agent QB as soon as possible, draft a QB in the 3rd, and go into camp with a competition. Reaching for a flawed guy in the mid or late part of the 1st round usually results in a wasted pick.

The last thing I'd want if I was a raiders fan is more mid. I'd either want to sell out for a top pick or start the tanking. Wouldn't want to waste more capital on yet another 3rd round rookie. Just roll with AOC, and start the tanking.

[Anteaters]

In 2020, the third QB went 1.06. Love went 1.26 to a team that was willing to invest three seasons of bench education time in his development - we know the Raiders (and almost every other nfl team) aren't looking to sit any QB they draft in the 1st round. Hurts was a miracle find in the back of the 3rd round.

Very, very, very small clarification (and not essential for your main point, which I'll address in another post). Hurts was drafted at the end of the 2nd round.

Thanks for that correction.

I'll be back in the A.M. to respond to your following post. It requires more thought than I can spare right now.

[Anteaters]

if AP is named the head coach I think there's a better than 50% chance AOC is the 2024 opening day starter.

I'd take this wager

Looks like the premise (AP being the Raiders' head coach in 2024) may become a moot point. Apparently Mark Davis is going to screw up another head coach search -- because Davis has failed as yet to sign AP, other teams are already lining up to request an interview with AP. I'm glad I'm not a Raider fan because watching an obviously good young HC get away would drive me crazy. It would be just like Davis to sign Belichick.