Zay Flowers official thread

[Bronco Billy]

I used to be a strong Flowers proponent but I’ve cooled on him quite a bit after looking a lot more closely at him. His size is clearly an issue and when DBs get their hands on him they completely disrupt his routes. There aren’t a whole lot of successful WRs where the majority of CBs are significantly bigger than them. Between his size and his short wingspan he does not win 50/50 balls often. He has way too many drops. He does not do a good job identifying zone coverage and sitting in a hole - that’s a real health concern as he’ll get blasted running through zones when the ball is delivered his way. Lastly he’ll be almost literally no factor in the run game, which is BAL’s bread and butter.

There are some very real positives in his game, but those negatives make me wonder how low his ceiling is in the NFL, and given his ADP there are other guys that fit the pro game better that I can draft later. I do understand why people see upside in him and are hoping he’ll work his way through at least some of those negatives.

[Anteaters]

You can't stack the box or put a spy on Lamar with Andrews, Bateman, Flowers and Beckham on the field together.

Why not? Even if all those guys manage to stay healthy, which is far from a sure thing for at least two of them (not to mention Lamar himself), who outside of Andrews is scaring opposing defenses at this point in their career?

Andrews - Just came off the worst YPT of his career. While he’s good, not sure he’s elite or just a very good player propped up by a very TE friendly system under Roman.

Bateman - Has been repeatedly derailed by injuries and isn’t currently healthy. He also graded out at a 61.6 on PFF in his limited work last year.

Flowers - I like him a lot, but he’s a rookie coming out of Boston College. There is going to be a transition here more likely than not. He may be pushed out by Agholor in the early part of the season.

Beckham - Hasn’t had a productive years in three years and even then wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Has been off for a full year with an injury and is 30 years old. Does he still have it? Can he stay healthy?

I think you’re assuming upside reached in most cases here if you look at this receiving corps and think they’re scaring people.

Not to put words into Cameron's answer, but ... I don't think he meant teams would preemptively remove the spy to better contain the receivers. I assumed Cameron meant that when teams open the season slacking off the receivers by assigning a spy on Jackson, those teams will be burned by Jackson, then be forced to utilize the spy to help contain the receivers ... which will open up running opportunities for Jackson. Then by week 3 or 4 or 5, teams will know better than to assign a regular spy on Jackson because it's too dangerous to leave the DBs without extra help.

Naturally, that presumes two-or-three of the receivers are not laid out with injuries. I think that's why Baltimore over-indulged in receivers this off-season, to compensate if one is injured (OBJ/Bateman) or doesn't produce right away (Zay.) No guarantees, but there appears to be a plan. We'll just have to wait and see how it works out.

[remedy29]

A pass happy offense with Jackson seems stupid. When the the rubber meets the road…the Ravens will go back to having Jackson run the ball and pepper Andrews a million times per game…because that is what Jackson does well.

I think Jackson will be very good in a pass-heavy offense. I put his over/under at 4500yds, and can see a clear pathway to a 5000yd season.

4500 may seem like a lot, but it's averaging 260yds/gm. Jackson averaged 260yds/gm in 2021 (discount the partial game where he got injured and had only 4 passes) in the old offense. If this new offense lets Lamar cook, he'll blow past 5000 yards like nothing. If that happens, at least one receiver besides Andrews is going to have a fine fantasy season.

I think the yards will be there from Jackson. I'm almost certain Zay is not ready to be the receiver to step up and claim a co-leading role as a rookie.

In 2021, Lamar Jackson threw for 2,865 yards in 13 games (not including the game he got hurt). That is 220 yards per game, not 260. Ove a 17 game span, that is 3,740 yards.

Last year, there were 6 teams to average over 260 yards per game. About 3,740 yards seems like a good over/under line. If someone was offering 4,500 yards over/under, I'd also wager the under.

I drafted Zay Flowers, after drafting Elijah Moore, Sky Moore the past few seasons. I do hope one of these smaller WRs start hitting or I may be out on them too.

[Anteaters]

In 2021, Lamar Jackson threw for 2,865 yards in 13 games (not including the game he got hurt). That is 220 yards per game, not 260. Ove a 17 game span, that is 3,740 yards.

In week 13 (game 12) of 2021, Jackson left the game after completing only 4 (of 4) passes. If you remove that game from the tally, Jackson averaged 260yds/gm for the first 11 games of the season. Over a 17 game span, that would be 4,420yds.

In this new offense, I think 4500 yards is easily achievable. And 5000 is not a far out there proposition.

[FantasyFreak]

I think you’re assuming upside reached in most cases here if you look at this receiving corps and think they’re scaring people.

Didn't they just sign Treadwell? That's 5 former first round WR's!!!!

Better up it to 5500 yards with that bit of news.

[remedy29]

In 2021, Lamar Jackson threw for 2,865 yards in 13 games (not including the game he got hurt). That is 220 yards per game, not 260. Ove a 17 game span, that is 3,740 yards.

In week 13 (game 12) of 2021, Jackson left the game after completing only 4 (of 4) passes. If you remove that game from the tally, Jackson averaged 260yds/gm for the first 11 games of the season. Over a 17 game span, that would be 4,420yds.

In this new offense, I think 4500 yards is easily achievable. And 5000 is not a far out there proposition.

Yep, you're correct my bad. Makes me feel a little better about Zay Flowers.

4,500 still seems optimistic without a stud WR or a team passing every down. Last year;
KC, TB and LAC charges are all extreme pass heavy teams. Mia, Cincy, Minn and Buffalo have Tyreek/Waddle, Chase/Higgins, Jefferson and Diggs. I am mot sure Baltimore receiving core matches up with those teams and I doubt Baltimore turns into a top 4 passing volume team.

[Ice]

I think you’re assuming upside reached in most cases here if you look at this receiving corps and think they’re scaring people.

Didn't they just sign Treadwell? That's 5 former first round WR's!!!!

Better up it to 5500 yards with that bit of news.

Hahaha The Ravens just don't know what they want to be when they grow up!

Flowers is going to be a very good NFL WR. Fantasy may be another story for a few years.

I am so looking forward to that 8th year breakout for Treadwell!
Just wondering if 55 targets would be considered a breakout for him at this point!

[Bronco Billy]

For Pete’s sake. Last year only Mahomes broke the 5k passing barrier. In the past 3 years a total of 3 QBs did it. So now Jackson is going to be one of the top 2 passers in the league?

In the past 3 years 15 QBs surpassed 4500 yds passing, including 5 last year. So Jackson is going to morph into a top 5 passing QB?

And none of that touches on his recent history of not being able to play a full season. I’ll take the under, thanks.

[Sriracha]

To the Lamar passing skeptics, what specifically do you not like about his passing ability?

[FantasyFreak]

For Pete’s sake. Last year only Mahomes broke the 5k passing barrier. In the past 3 years a total of 3 QBs did it. So now Jackson is going to be one of the top 2 passers in the league?

In the past 3 years 15 QBs surpassed 4500 yds passing, including 5 last year. So Jackson is going to morph into a top 5 passing QB?

And none of that touches on his recent history of not being able to play a full season. I’ll take the under, thanks.

Adding a 17th game does increase numbers across the board, to be fair, but point taken. To be honest though, Lamar SHOULD throw for 4500 yards. They've invested significant capital into the WR position, added an OC that everybody is talking about being great for him, and paid him a boatload of money. There's no reason beyond injury why Lamar shouldn't throw for 4500 yards.

No will he? That remains to be seen. Should be interesting to see.

[Bronco Billy]

For Pete’s sake. Last year only Mahomes broke the 5k passing barrier. In the past 3 years a total of 3 QBs did it. So now Jackson is going to be one of the top 2 passers in the league?

In the past 3 years 15 QBs surpassed 4500 yds passing, including 5 last year. So Jackson is going to morph into a top 5 passing QB?

And none of that touches on his recent history of not being able to play a full season. I’ll take the under, thanks.

Adding a 17th game does increase numbers across the board, to be fair, but point taken. To be honest though, Lamar SHOULD throw for 4500 yards. They've invested significant capital into the WR position, added an OC that everybody is talking about being great for him, and paid him a boatload of money. There's no reason beyond injury why Lamar shouldn't throw for 4500 yards.

No will he? That remains to be seen. Should be interesting to see.

There’s every reason to think he’ll never get close to that threshold. In the past 3 years his best completion percentage is 64.4%, which was a best in those years of #22 in the league. His ypa in that time is an average of around 7.3 ypa. He’ll need to throw in excess of 600 passes to hit 4500 yards. This is a guy who has never thrown more than 401 passes in any season. Even if you use his career best 7.8 ypa he’d still need to throw 576 passes.

I’m not sure why some here think that Jackson, who has been a mediocre passer at best his entire career, is suddenly going to turn into a top 5 passing QB or better. Could he do it? Sure, the season hasn’t started yet and anything is possible, no matter how remote. Probably about the same odds of Jennifer Connelly showing up at my front door to take me out for a date.

[YouMightDieTryin]

To the Lamar passing skeptics, what specifically do you not like about his passing ability?

*BUZZ* What is everything, Bob.

It's more that he just doesn't look to pass because he has his legs as a backup. So instead of trusting his receivers/his arm he bows out and runs. So there's a certain lack of trust going into predictions. Billy B is correct. He's not going to instantly become a top passing QB overnight. But Cameron also hit the right spot in that he's going to be given all the tools in order to achieve maximum passing yardage this year (new O scheme, new WR, etc).

[Cameron Giles]

You can't stack the box or put a spy on Lamar with Andrews, Bateman, Flowers and Beckham on the field together.

Why not? Even if all those guys manage to stay healthy, which is far from a sure thing for at least two of them (not to mention Lamar himself), who outside of Andrews is scaring opposing defenses at this point in their career?

Andrews - Just came off the worst YPT of his career. While he’s good, not sure he’s elite or just a very good player propped up by a very TE friendly system under Roman.

Bateman - Has been repeatedly derailed by injuries and isn’t currently healthy. He also graded out at a 61.6 on PFF in his limited work last year.

Flowers - I like him a lot, but he’s a rookie coming out of Boston College. There is going to be a transition here more likely than not. He may be pushed out by Agholor in the early part of the season.

Beckham - Hasn’t had a productive years in three years and even then wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Has been off for a full year with an injury and is 30 years old. Does he still have it? Can he stay healthy?

I think you’re assuming upside reached in most cases here if you look at this receiving corps and think they’re scaring people.

Not at all. I don't think all of them have to individually reach their highest upside to scare teams. I think median outcomes here represent a dramatic improvement from Baltimore's receiving core of the past. All four of these players are very good route runners and can separate.

Health is of course the biggest factor here, but if they are mostly healthy, I don't know how you contain Jackson while also preventing any of those players from having field days. It would definitely become more of a pick-your-poison type of offense with that talent.

[Jigga94]

Nice another Lamar thread. At least there won't be any Geronimo Allison talk here

[Anteaters]

Nice another Lamar thread. At least there won't be any Geronimo Allison talk here

Well, admittedly, it's worth it when we're talking about the second best qb in the league