Tony Pollard Discussion

[Cameron Giles]

It seems as if you have been more fortunate than I have been. I tried very hard to sell JT in a 20 team league after his 2021 season, when he was the unquestioned RB1. Unfortunately, his value was so high that I couldn't move him.

I have 3 Bijan shares, and would happily listen to offers, from the likes of what I have been hearing, but most seem willing to wait for his value to drop.

Seems like, especially with RB's, do NOT buy high, just wait, and their value will eventually drop.
Just like I picked up Breece Hall in one league last year for DeVonta Smith, after he got injured.
All prices fall eventually, I've been holding too many JT, Javonte, Dobbins, Breece shares I guess, none of them winning me anything in 2022.

Agreed. Rarely see buy high deals on RBs these days, even the top ones. A lot of people have become very risk adverse to it and would rather draft one or wait for the buy low window. The trade offers section will make you think it happens often though.

Selling high on Pollard sounds great in theory though. Even if he has a great season, I can't see his value being higher as a 27 year old FA RB.

[Pullo Vision]

Surprised noone brought up the potential for reduced efficiency with the OC gone.

People probably remember The HC was an OC and has a SB under his belt.

The offense won’t change much other than the O Line is improving, they added speed at WR and McCarthy likes to run the ball.

The offense should actually be better and the box matchups should improve even more for Pollard.

The long term success may not be there given the contract but few RB’s are safe bets these days.

He is great for teams hoping for a fantasy title run this year.

McCarthy has said he will focus on a slower pace, to give his defense time to rest on the sideline. When he was calling plays in GB, his highest neutral game script rate was 19th and generally mid 20s. A return to that would back up his offseason talk.

There are other ways things that could change (like if Dallas cuts back on the play action), but a slower pace is significant to me.

[j4pac]

I agree with that, my point was just that I believe that Pollard's value will never be higher than it is right now.
So I would look to sell, before his value ultimately goes down.

Bijan's value will likely go down. "Value" isn't just the trade market. It's points in your lineup, to win actual FF matchups, and ultimately championships. I drafted Bijan. Instead of trading him because he's at peak value, I traded future value to add Chase to my lineup. I tried to move Ekeler 2 years ago, thinking he was at peak "value", I couldn't, and he won it for me, 2 years in row, or at least, was a huge part of it. Learned from that. I moved JK for for Mixon when he hurt his knee that year, too. I then moved Mixon for Jacobs early last year, before Jacobs went off.

In another league, I was a mediocre team in a 14 team SF last year, middle of the pack, my QB's were Carr and Wentz. I decided to move a future 2nd for Geno. I nearly packed it in. Decided, why not? Get in the dance, who knows?

I won the ship, with benched Carr, and Geno and Carson at QB. My opponents, who had better rosters, had bad weeks, 3 weeks in row, vs my team. I had far better teams in the past, that never won. I won because I took a shot, on Geno Smith, rather than packing it in. I had some good RB's and Wr's, but nothing special....Had chosen Hall and Walker, but had moved for Coop and Cooks to go win now, earlier in the year. Almost backed out before the playoffs. Realized I had no future capital anyway, what's a future 2nd? Had made those win now moves. Got Geno. Won because of that. That 2.14, as it turned out, was the "VALUE" that won a ship.

If you're a competitor, you don't trade players unless you get immediate production AND future "value"/ What's the value of a future 24 first i f it lands you an extra year of production in a win now window? You might spend that pick on a dud a year from now, waiting 2 years a year from now to realize they are a dud. 3 years of nothing. "Value" isn't just trade value, it's points in your lineup, and winning. Value is relative to what you are trying to accomplish.

It seems as if you have been more fortunate than I have been. I tried very hard to sell JT in a 20 team league after his 2021 season, when he was the unquestioned RB1. Unfortunately, his value was so high that I couldn't move him.

I have 3 Bijan shares, and would happily listen to offers, from the likes of what I have been hearing, but most seem willing to wait for his value to drop.

Seems like, especially with RB's, do NOT buy high, just wait, and their value will eventually drop.
Just like I picked up Breece Hall in one league last year for DeVonta Smith, after he got injured.
All prices fall eventually, I've been holding too many JT, Javonte, Dobbins, Breece shares I guess, none of them winning me anything in 2022.

The problem with waiting is that you could be missing on a RBs peak. RBs that are great are typically great right away. It’s like purchasing vehicles. Of course the Porsche is most expensive off the lot…but by the time you wait for the price to come down, you may be getting a used up Porsche. I think that you just have to acknowledge that you are getting a losing investment at RB, more often than not. But that’s ok…because you need RBs to win in fantasy. I like the idea of having one stud, reliable RB…then go in bulk with lower priced RBs. Keep the majority of your investments locked up at QB and WR.

[Ice]

Surprised noone brought up the potential for reduced efficiency with the OC gone.

People probably remember The HC was an OC and has a SB under his belt.

The offense won’t change much other than the O Line is improving, they added speed at WR and McCarthy likes to run the ball.

The offense should actually be better and the box matchups should improve even more for Pollard.

The long term success may not be there given the contract but few RB’s are safe bets these days.

He is great for teams hoping for a fantasy title run this year.

McCarthy has said he will focus on a slower pace, to give his defense time to rest on the sideline. When he was calling plays in GB, his highest neutral game script rate was 19th and generally mid 20s. A return to that would back up his offseason talk.

There are other ways things that could change (like if Dallas cuts back on the play action), but a slower pace is significant to me.

My take overall is too many in fantasy focus on selling at peak value. I focus on winning over selling players. Players like Pollard may have great value or at least very good value in the sellers market but his upside points value makes him a strong hold when going for titles.

On Play action and Pace of Play:
I agree on your pace of Play comment but I do think the move Dallas made bringing in Cooks will actually increase play action this year to force teams away from playing cover 3 concepts. Speed is a great friend of play action.

No doubt Dallas is built to run a lot and they need to increase time of possession to really compete. Better running and fewer turnovers are significant keys. They ranked in the 20's in TOP and were the worst in their division in that regard. That is most likely a key reason a change was made at OC and have the HC calling the plays this year.

[Pullo Vision]

People probably remember The HC was an OC and has a SB under his belt.

The offense won’t change much other than the O Line is improving, they added speed at WR and McCarthy likes to run the ball.

The offense should actually be better and the box matchups should improve even more for Pollard.

The long term success may not be there given the contract but few RB’s are safe bets these days.

He is great for teams hoping for a fantasy title run this year.

McCarthy has said he will focus on a slower pace, to give his defense time to rest on the sideline. When he was calling plays in GB, his highest neutral game script rate was 19th and generally mid 20s. A return to that would back up his offseason talk.

There are other ways things that could change (like if Dallas cuts back on the play action), but a slower pace is significant to me.

My take overall is too many in fantasy focus on selling at peak value. I focus on winning over selling players. Players like Pollard may have great value or at least very good value in the sellers market but his upside points value makes him a strong hold when going for titles.

On Play action and Pace of Play:
I agree on your pace of Play comment but I do think the move Dallas made bringing in Cooks will actually increase play action this year to force teams away from playing cover 3 concepts. Speed is a great friend of play action.

No doubt Dallas is built to run a lot and they need to increase time of possession to really compete. Better running and fewer turnovers are significant keys. They ranked in the 20's in TOP and were the worst in their division in that regard. That is most likely a key reason a change was made at OC and have the HC calling the plays this year.

Good point on the Cooks addition purpose/impact. My concern is that the run game will be less effective, so defenses won't get sucked up as much.

TOP and turnovers definitely go hand in hand. On that, Martz puts more of the blame for Prescott's career high in interceptions on the receivers than the QB, and questions the scheme a few times. This article takes a different view, pinning 8 on the QB, while also saying that they all happened with only a 4 man rush. One analyst said the interceptions showed Dallas was short on play makers, especially when Pollard wasn't on the field.

[Ice]

McCarthy has said he will focus on a slower pace, to give his defense time to rest on the sideline. When he was calling plays in GB, his highest neutral game script rate was 19th and generally mid 20s. A return to that would back up his offseason talk.

There are other ways things that could change (like if Dallas cuts back on the play action), but a slower pace is significant to me.

My take overall is too many in fantasy focus on selling at peak value. I focus on winning over selling players. Players like Pollard may have great value or at least very good value in the sellers market but his upside points value makes him a strong hold when going for titles.

On Play action and Pace of Play:
I agree on your pace of Play comment but I do think the move Dallas made bringing in Cooks will actually increase play action this year to force teams away from playing cover 3 concepts. Speed is a great friend of play action.

No doubt Dallas is built to run a lot and they need to increase time of possession to really compete. Better running and fewer turnovers are significant keys. They ranked in the 20's in TOP and were the worst in their division in that regard. That is most likely a key reason a change was made at OC and have the HC calling the plays this year.

Good point on the Cooks addition purpose/impact. My concern is that the run game will be less effective, so defenses won't get sucked up as much.

TOP and turnovers definitely go hand in hand. On that, Martz puts more of the blame for Prescott's career high in interceptions on the receivers than the QB, and questions the scheme a few times. This article takes a different view, pinning 8 on the QB, while also saying that they all happened with only a 4 man rush. One analyst said the interceptions showed Dallas was short on play makers, especially when Pollard wasn't on the field.

No doubt Prescott was very unlucky at times last year. It was painful watching balls bounce of WR hands and routes mistakes last year. The Line was also in shambles given their all world tackle got hurt. The good news is their first round rookie stepped up and played really well overall. The line should be much better.

It is the Cowboys so who knows but I think the offense will be considerably more reliable this season.

I am glad to own Pollard in a few leagues and not really worried about a fall off. Then again it is only June!

[Pullo Vision]

I am glad to own Pollard in a few leagues and not really worried about a fall off. Then again it is only June!

Wish I could be as enthusiastic where I have him. Not convinced he's 100% at the beginning of the season. Assuming they keep limiting his touches (position coach called him a sports car), he'll need to keep up his high per touch efficiency like last year. Hopefully the combo of injury and McCarthy play calling doesn't torpedo that.

That said, with you that you gotta hold talent when contending, so I'm trying to scoop up productive depth.

[j4pac]

I am glad to own Pollard in a few leagues and not really worried about a fall off. Then again it is only June!

Wish I could be as enthusiastic where I have him. Not convinced he's 100% at the beginning of the season. Assuming they keep limiting his touches (position coach called him a sports car), he'll need to keep up his high per touch efficiency like last year. Hopefully the combo of injury and McCarthy play calling doesn't torpedo that.

That said, with you that you gotta hold talent when contending, so I'm trying to scoop up productive depth.

There is no reason he shouldn’t be ready unless there is a setback. Tua had the procedure and he was back in two weeks. Every injury is different, but I’d rest comfortably that he’ll be ready

[Pullo Vision]

I am glad to own Pollard in a few leagues and not really worried about a fall off. Then again it is only June!

Wish I could be as enthusiastic where I have him. Not convinced he's 100% at the beginning of the season. Assuming they keep limiting his touches (position coach called him a sports car), he'll need to keep up his high per touch efficiency like last year. Hopefully the combo of injury and McCarthy play calling doesn't torpedo that.

That said, with you that you gotta hold talent when contending, so I'm trying to scoop up productive depth.

There is no reason he shouldn’t be ready unless there is a setback. Tua had the procedure and he was back in two weeks. Every injury is different, but I’d rest comfortably that he’ll be ready

I'm trying to keep my expectations/hope in check, but the news has certainly been good. Ignoring Bayless is easy.

[FantasyFreak]

So other than beating up on the hapless Giants, he's not been the same guy. I still think he's a good player, and hope he does better going forward, I have some Cowboys in my FF teams, including him, that it would help. I'm posting this because efficiency is harder to produce, with volume, it's why I am not a big fan of people promoting backup RB's missed tackles forced per touch, etc., as a means to say they are superior to guys who take more touches. If you can be efficient on high touch counts, that's more an indication you're truly elite, and Pollard was awesome last year. He doesn't look as good this year. Hoping that will change, but he's well beyond the age apex, having never been a lead back, and that was a warranted skepticism coming into this year, for the more redraft state of mind, focusing on production this year.

Really, really hoping it's a bounce back week for him and this offense. It's needed.

This offense has not been the same since they gave Cooper away to the Browns. That was a bad move.

[wickerkat1212]

I moved him recently in a big trade. I always felt that he could only hand on for so long.

[mild]

So other than beating up on the hapless Giants, he's not been the same guy. I still think he's a good player, and hope he does better going forward, I have some Cowboys in my FF teams, including him, that it would help...

Really, really hoping it's a bounce back week for him and this offense. It's needed.

The Chargers defense should be the cure for the ailment. They -love- giving up rushing production. If he doesn't have a good day tomorrow, I'll be a little more worried.

We're not even 10 months removed from Tony cracking his fibula. It's not surprising that he's dived down to Latavious Murray levels of missed tackles forced... We should be generous with letting him return to form this season imo.

Tightrope surgery occurred at the same time for a high ankle sprain/injury, too. It's all pretty "up there" as far as devastating lower body injuries go.

[FantasyFreak]

So other than beating up on the hapless Giants, he's not been the same guy. I still think he's a good player, and hope he does better going forward, I have some Cowboys in my FF teams, including him, that it would help...

Really, really hoping it's a bounce back week for him and this offense. It's needed.

The Chargers defense should be the cure for the ailment. They -love- giving up rushing production. If he doesn't have a good day tomorrow, I'll be a little more worried.

We're not even 10 months removed from Tony cracking his fibula. It's not surprising that he's dived down to Latavious Murray levels of missed tackles forced... We should be generous with letting him return to form this season imo.

Tightrope surgery occurred at the same time for a high ankle sprain/injury, too. It's all pretty "up there" as far as devastating lower body injuries go.

Maybe they shouldn't have paid him, IDK. They miss Coop, I will tell you that. Need a big game from him to justify that contract, and....oh, yeah, ditto from Dak.

Staley vs McCarthy is as close to that McDaniels vs Staley game we will likely see, for who will find a way to lose more. The Spider man meme brought to real life.

[mild]

Maybe they shouldn't have paid him, IDK. They miss Coop, I will tell you that. Need a big game from him to justify that contract, and....oh, yeah, ditto from Dak.

I mean, they only tagged him. 10 million is fair comp for a single year of hard service.

It's almost like the Cowboys are now a Mike McCarthy offense now, or something... weird, right.

Who could have seen this coming...

[FantasyFreak]

Maybe they shouldn't have paid him, IDK. They miss Coop, I will tell you that. Need a big game from him to justify that contract, and....oh, yeah, ditto from Dak.

I mean, they only tagged him. 10 million is fair comp for a single year of hard service.

It's almost like the Cowboys are now a Mike McCarthy offense now, or something... weird, right.

Who could have seen this coming...

Well, yeah, but last year Dak struggled too. I firmly believe Coop was a good part to that offense, with Dak. History tends to show that. Moore was there last year, too. Since they've moved Coop, it hasn't been as potent an offense. They gave him away. I guess my point is, keeping Coop could have been done, and likely should have been, but Jerrah had a personal vendetta, it seemed, vs Coop, and it has hurt his offense, since. Really, they could have found a way too keep Coop, regardless, but Jerry holds grudges, it seems.

Zeke is toast now, but last year, he was still better than what they have as an alternative this year, IMO. They need a better complimentary back to Pollard, as well. Cooks hasn't worked out, for the passing game. They've been middle of the pack since Coop left.