Jaxon Smith-Njigba: the thread

[Sriracha]

I would like to see if any deals have involved him. Like BB alludes to, his current owners who drafted him likely are fine holding and buyers probably are trying to buy low. Could say the same about QJ

I sent an offer of JSN for Flowers for fun

I don't believe this is very similar to QJ, at all.

QJ is much more physically talented and was drafted for who he can become not who he was coming out of TCU. JSN was expected to be a high level technician right out of the gate.

When a player who wins off savvy doesn't translate to the NFL that should be more alarming than when a traits based prospect starts his career out slowly.

The starting points of their value were very different so I'm not valuing him above JSN at this point but IMO JSN should have lost more value through the first 4 weeks of the season than QJ has.

[CGW]

I would like to see if any deals have involved him. Like BB alludes to, his current owners who drafted him likely are fine holding and buyers probably are trying to buy low. Could say the same about QJ

I sent an offer of JSN for Flowers for fun

I don't believe this is very similar to QJ, at all.

QJ is much more physically talented and was drafted for who he can become not who he was coming out of TCU. JSN was expected to be a high level technician right out of the gate.

When a player who wins off savvy doesn't translate to the NFL that should be more alarming than when a traits based prospect starts his career out slowly.

The starting points of their value were very different so I'm not valuing him above JSN at this point but IMO JSN should have lost more value through the first 4 weeks of the season than QJ has.

I can tell you in reality, QJs value is dropping just as fast. I've seen QJ in a few trades where he was written off for basically late 1sts or early 2nds (Richaad White in one trade). According to KTC, QJ has fallen from WR21 to WR40. JSN has fallen WR11 to WR19. Yes, I get the flaws in KTC, but I'm using it for sake of a crude "in the moment" market value.

[Sriracha]

I would like to see if any deals have involved him. Like BB alludes to, his current owners who drafted him likely are fine holding and buyers probably are trying to buy low. Could say the same about QJ

I sent an offer of JSN for Flowers for fun

I don't believe this is very similar to QJ, at all.

QJ is much more physically talented and was drafted for who he can become not who he was coming out of TCU. JSN was expected to be a high level technician right out of the gate.

When a player who wins off savvy doesn't translate to the NFL that should be more alarming than when a traits based prospect starts his career out slowly.

The starting points of their value were very different so I'm not valuing him above JSN at this point but IMO JSN should have lost more value through the first 4 weeks of the season than QJ has.

I can tell you in reality, QJs value is dropping just as fast. I've seen QJ in a few trades where he was written off for basically late 1sts or early 2nds (Richaad White in one trade). According to KTC, QJ has fallen from WR21 to WR40. JSN has fallen WR11 to WR19. Yes, I get the flaws in KTC, but I'm using it for sake of a crude "in the moment" market value.

Wasn't QJ a late 1st round pick in most drafts? I'd be trading him if I could just re-roll the dice in a presumed stronger class, too.

It is interesting that he's dropped 19 spots but that's also because this latter round crop of rookie WRs have been surprisingly strong. I'd also argue the value of dropping from WR11 to WR19 is bigger than WR21 to WR40

[CGW]

Is next year a stronger class? I've been under the impression there is one WR that is a sure bet better WR than any from 2023. Beyond that, I'm not sure yet. I've actually heard there is very little depth.

[Sriracha]

Is next year a stronger class? I've been under the impression there is one WR that is a sure bet better WR than any from 2023. Beyond that, I'm not sure yet. I've actually heard there is very little depth.

We never really know until the off-season but a lot of NFL evaluators were eyeing towards it even during the 2023 draft. Some film guys have called it the 'best class they've ever scouted'.. but I don't put a lot of stock into that type of hyperbole in September.

[Prison_Mike]

I don't believe this is very similar to QJ, at all.

QJ is much more physically talented and was drafted for who he can become not who he was coming out of TCU. JSN was expected to be a high level technician right out of the gate.

When a player who wins off savvy doesn't translate to the NFL that should be more alarming than when a traits based prospect starts his career out slowly.

The starting points of their value were very different so I'm not valuing him above JSN at this point but IMO JSN should have lost more value through the first 4 weeks of the season than QJ has.

I can tell you in reality, QJs value is dropping just as fast. I've seen QJ in a few trades where he was written off for basically late 1sts or early 2nds (Richaad White in one trade). According to KTC, QJ has fallen from WR21 to WR40. JSN has fallen WR11 to WR19. Yes, I get the flaws in KTC, but I'm using it for sake of a crude "in the moment" market value.

Wasn't QJ a late 1st round pick in most drafts? I'd be trading him if I could just re-roll the dice in a presumed stronger class, too.

It is interesting that he's dropped 19 spots but that's also because this latter round crop of rookie WRs have been surprisingly strong. I'd also argue the value of dropping from WR11 to WR19 is bigger than WR21 to WR40

I think the "excuses" are more understandable and widely accepted with JSN than they are with QJ, particularly the WRs each guy would need to force off the field. I know there was a bit of a twitter outcry that QJ can't force his way onto the field over Josh Palmer, even on an offense that's top-5 in pass volume. At least JSN has known good football players keeping him off the field

[ButtFumbleCity]

I can tell you in reality, QJs value is dropping just as fast. I've seen QJ in a few trades where he was written off for basically late 1sts or early 2nds (Richaad White in one trade). According to KTC, QJ has fallen from WR21 to WR40. JSN has fallen WR11 to WR19. Yes, I get the flaws in KTC, but I'm using it for sake of a crude "in the moment" market value.

Wasn't QJ a late 1st round pick in most drafts? I'd be trading him if I could just re-roll the dice in a presumed stronger class, too.

It is interesting that he's dropped 19 spots but that's also because this latter round crop of rookie WRs have been surprisingly strong. I'd also argue the value of dropping from WR11 to WR19 is bigger than WR21 to WR40

I think the "excuses" are more understandable and widely accepted with JSN than they are with QJ, particularly the WRs each guy would need to force off the field. I know there was a bit of a twitter outcry that QJ can't force his way onto the field over Josh Palmer, even on an offense that's top-5 in pass volume. At least JSN has known good football players keeping him off the field

Up until last week QJ was going up against Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. I'd put those two essentially on par with the Seahawks duo. Add Josh Palmer to the mix who is better than whatever the Seahawks were throwing out there and you could argue that QJ has had the harder road to snaps.

[Prison_Mike]

Wasn't QJ a late 1st round pick in most drafts? I'd be trading him if I could just re-roll the dice in a presumed stronger class, too.

It is interesting that he's dropped 19 spots but that's also because this latter round crop of rookie WRs have been surprisingly strong. I'd also argue the value of dropping from WR11 to WR19 is bigger than WR21 to WR40

I think the "excuses" are more understandable and widely accepted with JSN than they are with QJ, particularly the WRs each guy would need to force off the field. I know there was a bit of a twitter outcry that QJ can't force his way onto the field over Josh Palmer, even on an offense that's top-5 in pass volume. At least JSN has known good football players keeping him off the field

Up until last week QJ was going up against Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. I'd put those two essentially on par with the Seahawks duo. Add Josh Palmer to the mix who is better than whatever the Seahawks were throwing out there and you could argue that QJ has had the harder road to snaps.

Yeah, I agree. My point was he wasn't even getting on as the WR3 prior to the Williams injury, and is still the WR3 behind Palmer after the Williams injury

[Sriracha]

I can tell you in reality, QJs value is dropping just as fast. I've seen QJ in a few trades where he was written off for basically late 1sts or early 2nds (Richaad White in one trade). According to KTC, QJ has fallen from WR21 to WR40. JSN has fallen WR11 to WR19. Yes, I get the flaws in KTC, but I'm using it for sake of a crude "in the moment" market value.

Wasn't QJ a late 1st round pick in most drafts? I'd be trading him if I could just re-roll the dice in a presumed stronger class, too.

It is interesting that he's dropped 19 spots but that's also because this latter round crop of rookie WRs have been surprisingly strong. I'd also argue the value of dropping from WR11 to WR19 is bigger than WR21 to WR40

I think the "excuses" are more understandable and widely accepted with JSN than they are with QJ, particularly the WRs each guy would need to force off the field. I know there was a bit of a twitter outcry that QJ can't force his way onto the field over Josh Palmer, even on an offense that's top-5 in pass volume. At least JSN has known good football players keeping him off the field

You're not going to catch me saying that QJ is better than JSN right now. I also expected him to be raw as hell out of the gates.. but that foot quickness at his size coupled with his YAC ability is a very intriguing combination. QJ always had the biggest bust potential of the 1st round WRs but he might also have the highest upside.

My issue with JSN isn't the fact that he's not productive right now.. it's his efficiency. When he's on the field he's not producing. JSN is averaging 0.69 YPRR; That's 96th in the NFL! Just to put this in perspective QJ is averaging .73 YPRR He's earning a target on only 22% of his routes run. I know DK and Lockett are high level competition but JSN was supposed to be elite. He should be earning a bigger piece of the pie when he's on the field and he's just not.

Still early, but my warning signs are blaring.

[trc]

Wasn't QJ a late 1st round pick in most drafts? I'd be trading him if I could just re-roll the dice in a presumed stronger class, too.

It is interesting that he's dropped 19 spots but that's also because this latter round crop of rookie WRs have been surprisingly strong. I'd also argue the value of dropping from WR11 to WR19 is bigger than WR21 to WR40

I think the "excuses" are more understandable and widely accepted with JSN than they are with QJ, particularly the WRs each guy would need to force off the field. I know there was a bit of a twitter outcry that QJ can't force his way onto the field over Josh Palmer, even on an offense that's top-5 in pass volume. At least JSN has known good football players keeping him off the field

You're not going to catch me saying that QJ is better than JSN right now. I also expected him to be raw as hell out of the gates.. but that foot quickness at his size coupled with his YAC ability is a very intriguing combination. QJ always had the biggest bust potential of the 1st round WRs but he might also have the highest upside.

My issue with JSN isn't the fact that he's not productive right now.. it's his efficiency. When he's on the field he's not producing. JSN is averaging 0.69 YPRR; That's 96th in the NFL! Just to put this in perspective QJ is averaging .73 YPRR He's earning a target on only 22% of his routes run. I know DK and Lockett are high level competition but JSN was supposed to be elite. He should be earning a bigger piece of the pie when he's on the field and he's just not.

Still early, but my warning signs are blaring.

If his aDOT is really low, that is also affecting his YPRR - as far as I can tell.
QJ's aDOT is 10 something, that is 7-8 yards difference per rec. just from different usage due to play calling.

[Sriracha]

If his aDOT is really low, that is also affecting his YPRR - as far as I can tell.
QJ's aDOT is 10 something, that is 7-8 yards difference per rec. just from different usage due to play calling.

ADoT is definitely part of the issue but my question is why is he not commanding targets down the field? Lock threw to him during his short time as relief and the pass was 20 yards away from him. Maybe Lock is just that inaccurate or maybe JSN is struggling to make the right reads, it's hard to tell.

But SEA is at least allowing him to run deeper routes he's just not being targeted aside from manufactured low ADoT touches.

[killer_of_giants]

when your adot is similar to rondale moore's, something isn't quite right.

[gogobradyarm]

Probably never going to be a better buy window than now

[Payton34]

Yeah, so not leafing through all 27 pages of posts. Did I expect to see flashes of what the future holds at this point? Absolutely! But the bottom line is I truly drafted JSN with no expectation for this year, so we wait. There is a LOT to be said for Carroll not using JSN correctly, or at all at this point. I think it’s fair to point out that on a run first team, it is reasonable to expect that he’d get buried behind the top two WRs, RBs and even the top TE (scheme based).

I would imagine at some point it will come to light that, “Hey, we need to get the rook involved!”.

I know my post will get tore asunder by some “crack analysis” here and I don’t much care. I’m reserving judgement through the entire season. If we get to week 10 or 11 and there has still been no sign of life, then maybe I’ll start sweating?

[StripesOfKC]

I would not be worried that JSN is a bust or a bad player

That IMO is still not a major risk

On the other hand look at the elite WRs in fantasy/dynasty and you'll see a bunch of guys (not all but most) who if they had high capital (day 3 picks like Hill and Diggs are obviously on a different trajectory) produced early and often

If the question is "is JSN a good player?" nothing in his start would sway me towards no

But if it is "is JSN a transcendent talent?" then yeah it's probably very fair to be waffling