Jaxon Smith-Njigba: the thread

[Anteaters]

I would not be worried that JSN is a bust or a bad player

That IMO is still not a major risk

On the other hand look at the elite WRs in fantasy/dynasty and you'll see a bunch of guys (not all but most) who if they had high capital (day 3 picks like Hill and Diggs are obviously on a different trajectory) produced early and often

If the question is "is JSN a good player?" nothing in his start would sway me towards no

But if it is "is JSN a transcendent talent?" then yeah it's probably very fair to be waffling

I agree.

The question shouldn't be "Is JSN a bust or a good player?"

For me, the question for all rookies is to determine "is he a good player who is going to be stuck in the fantasy WR3 zone, or is he a stud?"

I don't really draft rookies to be my WR3/Flex. I'm always hoping a guy has the potential to be a T20WR for fantasy. Unfortunately, for JSN owners, the way the analysis of stats break down for rookie WRs, he has to put up some numbers or his fate will almost certainly not be a stud. He doesn't have the luxury of assuming he can be the rare cat who overcomes the odds based on first-year usage.

There's still time for JSN (and QJ) to turn it around. But if we get to week 10 and neither is getting more usage, it will be a bad sign.

[StripesOfKC]

I would not be worried that JSN is a bust or a bad player

That IMO is still not a major risk

On the other hand look at the elite WRs in fantasy/dynasty and you'll see a bunch of guys (not all but most) who if they had high capital (day 3 picks like Hill and Diggs are obviously on a different trajectory) produced early and often

If the question is "is JSN a good player?" nothing in his start would sway me towards no

But if it is "is JSN a transcendent talent?" then yeah it's probably very fair to be waffling

I agree.

The question shouldn't be "Is JSN a bust or a good player?"

For me, the question for all rookies is to determine "is he a good player who is going to be stuck in the fantasy WR3 zone, or is he a stud?"

I don't really draft rookies to be my WR3/Flex. I'm always hoping a guy has the potential to be a T20WR for fantasy. Unfortunately, for JSN owners, the way the analysis of stats break down for rookie WRs, he has to put up some numbers or his fate will almost certainly not be a stud. He doesn't have the luxury of assuming he can be the rare cat who overcomes the odds based on first-year usage.

There's still time for JSN (and QJ) to turn it around. But if we get to week 10 and neither is getting more usage, it will be a bad sign.

Tbh I still think top 20 WR is very possible (though not this year). Being an Amari Cooper/Terry Mclaurin/Brandin Cooks/etc is enough for that. It isn't something that will win you your leagues but a player anyone would be very happy to have and for the most part start week to week

But JSN was talked about as something greater---a contender for the WR3 overall spot with Olave, Wilson, CD, AJB and few others.

That is a kind of trajectory you generally need a strong start to fulfill

[Cameron Giles]

I would not be worried that JSN is a bust or a bad player

That IMO is still not a major risk

On the other hand look at the elite WRs in fantasy/dynasty and you'll see a bunch of guys (not all but most) who if they had high capital (day 3 picks like Hill and Diggs are obviously on a different trajectory) produced early and often

If the question is "is JSN a good player?" nothing in his start would sway me towards no

But if it is "is JSN a transcendent talent?" then yeah it's probably very fair to be waffling

I agree.

The question shouldn't be "Is JSN a bust or a good player?"

For me, the question for all rookies is to determine "is he a good player who is going to be stuck in the fantasy WR3 zone, or is he a stud?"

I don't really draft rookies to be my WR3/Flex. I'm always hoping a guy has the potential to be a T20WR for fantasy. Unfortunately, for JSN owners, the way the analysis of stats break down for rookie WRs, he has to put up some numbers or his fate will almost certainly not be a stud. He doesn't have the luxury of assuming he can be the rare cat who overcomes the odds based on first-year usage.

There's still time for JSN (and QJ) to turn it around. But if we get to week 10 and neither is getting more usage, it will be a bad sign.

Tbh I still think top 20 WR is very possible (though not this year). Being an Amari Cooper/Terry Mclaurin/Brandin Cooks/etc is enough for that. It isn't something that will win you your leagues but a player anyone would be very happy to have and for the most part start week to week

But JSN was talked about as something greater---a contender for the WR3 overall spot with Olave, Wilson, CD, AJB and few others.

That is a kind of trajectory you generally need a strong start to fulfill

This is the second or third time that's been implied. Who in this thread has been saying that?

For me, I think JSN has the skill, talent and upside to be a 100 reception type of WR. But, that's not the expectation I had for him as a rookie.

[Anteaters]

I would not be worried that JSN is a bust or a bad player

That IMO is still not a major risk

On the other hand look at the elite WRs in fantasy/dynasty and you'll see a bunch of guys (not all but most) who if they had high capital (day 3 picks like Hill and Diggs are obviously on a different trajectory) produced early and often

If the question is "is JSN a good player?" nothing in his start would sway me towards no

But if it is "is JSN a transcendent talent?" then yeah it's probably very fair to be waffling

I agree.

The question shouldn't be "Is JSN a bust or a good player?"

For me, the question for all rookies is to determine "is he a good player who is going to be stuck in the fantasy WR3 zone, or is he a stud?"

I don't really draft rookies to be my WR3/Flex. I'm always hoping a guy has the potential to be a T20WR for fantasy. Unfortunately, for JSN owners, the way the analysis of stats break down for rookie WRs, he has to put up some numbers or his fate will almost certainly not be a stud. He doesn't have the luxury of assuming he can be the rare cat who overcomes the odds based on first-year usage.

There's still time for JSN (and QJ) to turn it around. But if we get to week 10 and neither is getting more usage, it will be a bad sign.

Tbh I still think top 20 WR is very possible (though not this year). Being an Amari Cooper/Terry Mclaurin/Brandin Cooks/etc is enough for that. It isn't something that will win you your leagues but a player anyone would be very happy to have and for the most part start week to week

But JSN was talked about as something greater---a contender for the WR3 overall spot with Olave, Wilson, CD, AJB and few others.

That is a kind of trajectory you generally need a strong start to fulfill

No disagreement here.

[Cameron Giles]

Is next year a stronger class? I've been under the impression there is one WR that is a sure bet better WR than any from 2023. Beyond that, I'm not sure yet. I've actually heard there is very little depth.

In 1QB, it looks very top heavy and RB talent is in question. WR looks good though.

[killer_of_giants]

Tbh I still think top 20 WR is very possible (though not this year). Being an Amari Cooper/Terry Mclaurin/Brandin Cooks/etc is enough for that. It isn't something that will win you your leagues but a player anyone would be very happy to have and for the most part start week to week

But JSN was talked about as something greater---a contender for the WR3 overall spot with Olave, Wilson, CD, AJB and few others.

That is a kind of trajectory you generally need a strong start to fulfill

This is the second or third time that's been implied. Who in this thread has been saying that?

can't be arsed to go back and find the receipts but there were some saying that he'd pass lockett before the start of the season, or both lockett and DK at some point in the season, or that he'd be the highest scoring 'hawks WR at the end of the season.

[murphysxm]

Tbh I still think top 20 WR is very possible (though not this year). Being an Amari Cooper/Terry Mclaurin/Brandin Cooks/etc is enough for that. It isn't something that will win you your leagues but a player anyone would be very happy to have and for the most part start week to week

But JSN was talked about as something greater---a contender for the WR3 overall spot with Olave, Wilson, CD, AJB and few others.

That is a kind of trajectory you generally need a strong start to fulfill

This is the second or third time that's been implied. Who in this thread has been saying that?

can't be arsed to go back and find the receipts but there were some saying that he'd pass lockett before the start of the season, or both lockett and DK at some point in the season, or that he'd be the highest scoring 'hawks WR at the end of the season.

I can only speak for me, as an admitted JSN truther, I said I wouldn't be surprised if led the team in receptions (I think that is what I said), but I don't remember anyway stating he score the most fantasy points this season. The usage is very much a surprise to me and I miscalculated that. Still lots of a season left, who knows how it will end.

[killer_of_giants]

This is the second or third time that's been implied. Who in this thread has been saying that?

can't be arsed to go back and find the receipts but there were some saying that he'd pass lockett before the start of the season, or both lockett and DK at some point in the season, or that he'd be the highest scoring 'hawks WR at the end of the season.

I can only speak for me, as an admitted JSN truther, I said I wouldn't be surprised if led the team in receptions (I think that is what I said), but I don't remember anyway stating he score the most fantasy points this season. The usage is very much a surprise to me and I miscalculated that. Still lots of a season left, who knows how it will end.

yeah i'm just going by memory, so there's a next to 100% chance i'm talking bollocks, at least partially!

[wickerkat1212]

I agree.

The question shouldn't be "Is JSN a bust or a good player?"

For me, the question for all rookies is to determine "is he a good player who is going to be stuck in the fantasy WR3 zone, or is he a stud?"

I don't really draft rookies to be my WR3/Flex. I'm always hoping a guy has the potential to be a T20WR for fantasy. Unfortunately, for JSN owners, the way the analysis of stats break down for rookie WRs, he has to put up some numbers or his fate will almost certainly not be a stud. He doesn't have the luxury of assuming he can be the rare cat who overcomes the odds based on first-year usage.

There's still time for JSN (and QJ) to turn it around. But if we get to week 10 and neither is getting more usage, it will be a bad sign.

Tbh I still think top 20 WR is very possible (though not this year). Being an Amari Cooper/Terry Mclaurin/Brandin Cooks/etc is enough for that. It isn't something that will win you your leagues but a player anyone would be very happy to have and for the most part start week to week

But JSN was talked about as something greater---a contender for the WR3 overall spot with Olave, Wilson, CD, AJB and few others.

That is a kind of trajectory you generally need a strong start to fulfill

This is the second or third time that's been implied. Who in this thread has been saying that?

For me, I think JSN has the skill, talent and upside to be a 100 reception type of WR. But, that's not the expectation I had for him as a rookie.

This.

[StripesOfKC]

JSN was being drafted in a tier with high first round QBs and a first round RB in SF rather than with the Addisons and QJs and Flowers

On KTC he was valued around WR11 above proven young and good WRs like Aiyuk and DK before ever playing a snap

If he had done even 60% of what Puka has so far he probably would be the consensus WR3 overall

It was always pointed out that he out produced Olave and Wilson at Ohio State

You can say now that the expectation was always getting Terry Mclaurin but I just don’t buy it

When you sink that much into a WR prospect you’re expecting something truly special which with JSN’s pedigree and capital would have put him in the running for WR3 overall

Still possible I suppose but those guys started faster even if the situation wasn’t conducive to it

[FantasyFreak]

JSN was being drafted in a tier with high first round QBs and a first round RB in SF rather than with the Addisons and QJs and Flowers

On KTC he was valued around WR11 above proven young and good WRs like Aiyuk and DK before ever playing a snap

If he had done even 60% of what Puka has so far he probably would be the consensus WR3 overall

It was always pointed out that he out produced Olave and Wilson at Ohio State

You can say now that the expectation was always getting Terry Mclaurin but I just don’t buy it

When you sink that much into a WR prospect you’re expecting something truly special which with JSN’s pedigree and capital would have put him in the running for WR3 overall

Still possible I suppose but those guys started faster even if the situation wasn’t conducive to it

My main push back is that he wasn't in a tier of his own as a WR in this class, and a lot of people felt he was, in the Dynasty community. There was a "tier break" factor in drafts, and positionally with JSN, in the community, 100 percent. As of now, that looks to be a mistake. Maybe he ends up totally outproducing the rest of the class to warrant that type of valuation, but there's zero indication that will be the case.

[Lumps]

I’ll add too, people always pointing out that Olave and Wilson said he was the better athlete and that meant he was better than them.

I don’t feel like digging it up, but I said before his last season with those two moving on that was his chance to prove he can play outside. Then, coaches came out saying he’d man the slot again. That was worrisome. Then, the injury etc.

Slot WRs can be productive and some significantly so. Right system, right QB, etc. I don’t think Seattle is that place and we still don’t know if he can play outside.

Edit: that all being said a) it’s VERY early b) his landing spot almost made it a given he would have to wait until Lockett left.

[kmbryant09]

When did this become a redraft forum? I pointed out that 3 of the top 4 WRs from last year's class were fantasy afterthoughts for nearly the entire first half of the season.

It's been 4 weeks into the season and JSN was recovering from a broken hand. Let's see how this plays out all season before we start throwing up red flags.

The same people panicking now probably sold Garrett Wilson for a late 1st, and Christian Watson & Drake London for a second after week 6 last year. Heck, they might've even dropped ASRB halfway through his rookie year.

Sheesh.

[Sriracha]

When did this become a redraft forum? I pointed out that 3 of the top 4 WRs from last year's class were fantasy afterthoughts for nearly the entire first half of the season.

It's been 4 weeks into the season and JSN was recovering from a broken hand. Let's see how this plays out all season before we start throwing up red flags.

The same people panicking now probably sold Garrett Wilson for a late 1st, and Christian Watson & Drake London for a second after week 6 last year. Heck, they might've even dropped ASRB halfway through his rookie year.

Sheesh.

Never owned Drake London since I had Wilson rated higher but Wilson and Watson both showed much more through the first 4 games of the season. Watson's first target was a dropped 75 yard TD -- a lot of people saw that and said, "LOL this dude can't catch I knew he was a bust"; I saw a guy who missed almost all of training camp still got wide open downfield in his first game in the NFL and I heavily discount any and all drop narratives. Wilson was targeted 39 times in 4 games and had 255 receiving yards in the worst offense in the NFL

JSN hasn't shown us anything.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

When did this become a redraft forum? I pointed out that 3 of the top 4 WRs from last year's class were fantasy afterthoughts for nearly the entire first half of the season.

Olave, Wilson and London all were averaging 57+ ypg through week 4 of last year. viewtopic.php?p=2127102#p2127102