Jaxon Smith-Njigba: the thread

[Bronco Billy]

And to add, rather than editing, I’ve got a corps of young WRs and I’m using these discussions as an information gathering exercise to see if I should be making a play for him. JSN’s owner in our league is pretty saavy, but he just bailed on JT out of frustration. So with G Wilson, Shaheed, Reed, M Wilson and D Douglas already on board (that I’ll admit I’m pretty happy with) and also having Meyers and a 2024 2nd rounder I’m looking at comparisons and futures to see if I might be able to negotiate some kind of favorable deal right now.

[Jrblaha]

Probably another Pitts situation - simply in terms of buying and selling value adding up. Guessing there’s a decent gap.

[Cameron Giles]

Not sure that’s the case. There’s a reasonable expectation of performance, or at least indicators of such, when an owner is burning a 1.03 pick on a player unless an injury would preclude that. In this case, JSN is getting on the field, has a solid passing QB, is protected by good outside WRs, and yet his number of snaps is trending down, he’s had 20 targets and yet his ypr is also trending down and he’s posting 15.5 ypg.

That is a strong basis for concern for the “consensus best WR in the draft”, most especially when we’re seeing other supposedly lesser WRs experiencing significantly greater success. I agree that this isn’t nearly enough to bail out, but it ought to be enough to revisit his evaluations and open them to discussion.

I'm not saying you can't discuss a lack of production from rookies. I'm merely saying that expectations for players, especially rookies, seem to get more and more urgent like a redraft mentality.

I hate JSN's usage right now. Not in terms of volume, but purely just how they're using him. But, it's also early in the season and they may figure some things out as we go.

[jordanzs]

He’s getting dropped in redraft leagues. And even with my dynasty bias, I don’t have room on the roster to pick him up.

[Jigga94]

He’s getting dropped in redraft leagues. And even with my dynasty bias, I don’t have room on the roster to pick him up.

I dropped in a few redraft also

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Not sure that’s the case. There’s a reasonable expectation of performance, or at least indicators of such, when an owner is burning a 1.03 pick on a player unless an injury would preclude that. In this case, JSN is getting on the field, has a solid passing QB, is protected by good outside WRs, and yet his number of snaps is trending down, he’s had 20 targets and yet his ypr is also trending down and he’s posting 15.5 ypg.

That is a strong basis for concern for the “consensus best WR in the draft”, most especially when we’re seeing other supposedly lesser WRs experiencing significantly greater success. I agree that this isn’t nearly enough to bail out, but it ought to be enough to revisit his evaluations and open them to discussion.

I'm not saying you can't discuss a lack of production from rookies. I'm merely saying that expectations for players, especially rookies, seem to get more and more urgent like a redraft mentality.

I can't find where I posted it now (edit: FOUND IT), but the number of rookie wr's hitting the 47 ypg threshold has been steadily increasing over the years. So it's fair to adjust rookie expectations as the league becomes more pass-happy, and the rookie wr's seem more pro-ready. It's not just people randomly deciding to be more urgent, that's just the way the league is headed and we have to adjust with it.

Amount of Rookie Receivers with >47 YPG, >=9 games played. By Year.

1.6 per year average
1985 - 4
1986 - 2
1987 - 1
1988 - 1
1989 - 3
1990 - 1
1991 - 1
1992 - 0
1993 - 1

1.6 per year average
1994 - 2
1995 - 4
1996 - 4
1997 - 0
1998 - 1
1999 - 2
2000 - 0
2001 - 1
2002 - 0

2.8 per year average
2003 - 2
2004 - 5
2005 - 1
2006 - 2
2007 - 2
2008 - 2
2009 - 5
2010 - 2
2011 - 5

3.7 per year average
2012 - 3
2013 - 2
2014 - 9
2015 - 2
2016 - 1
2017 - 2
2018 - 3
2019 - 5
2020 - 7 estimated

We can see a noticeable change after 2002 that every year afterwards had at least 1 rookie receiver hitting the mark. Also, after 2002 the average number of rookies that reach the 47 ypg threshold starts to increase. To me it looks like the numbers have been steadily increasing since 2003.

I don't really buy the narrative that there's been some mysterious recent phenomena that's allowed rookie receivers to produce more. Sure, they are producing more but if you look at the numbers that's to be expected. They've been producing more not just the past few years but for nearly the past 20 years. Even if you cherry pick the juiciest stretch of years from 2014-2020, the per year average (4.1) is not high enough to rouse much suspicion imo as we expect it to be higher than the years prior (Not to mention you could cherry pick another 7 year stretch earlier than that with similar results [2008-2014 @ 4.0 per year]. In any event, we will see what happens with the upcoming draft classes... they could certainly change things.

I also don't buy the "but they're only rookies, it doesn't matter" narrative. The numbers clearly show that rookie year production is a BIG deal. It's not everything but it's seemingly a huge indicator of future success.

The numbers also show that our expectations of rookies producing right away ARE indeed founded. Sure, in the past, few rookies produced. But these days the numbers plainly show that it's an ever more frequent occurrence. It is NOT simply a few outlier classes. On average the numbers have steadily risen and continues to rise. I'm all for patience too but we can't ignore the facts either.

[FantasyFreak]

Not sure that’s the case. There’s a reasonable expectation of performance, or at least indicators of such, when an owner is burning a 1.03 pick on a player unless an injury would preclude that. In this case, JSN is getting on the field, has a solid passing QB, is protected by good outside WRs, and yet his number of snaps is trending down, he’s had 20 targets and yet his ypr is also trending down and he’s posting 15.5 ypg.

That is a strong basis for concern for the “consensus best WR in the draft”, most especially when we’re seeing other supposedly lesser WRs experiencing significantly greater success. I agree that this isn’t nearly enough to bail out, but it ought to be enough to revisit his evaluations and open them to discussion.

I'm not saying you can't discuss a lack of production from rookies. I'm merely saying that expectations for players, especially rookies, seem to get more and more urgent like a redraft mentality.

I hate JSN's usage right now. Not in terms of volume, but purely just how they're using him. But, it's also early in the season and they may figure some things out as we go.

It's happening before they play a game, too though. Some were proclaiming he'd take Lockett's job sooner, rather than later. A few highlights in camp and people were talking him up as a guy who'd hit 1000 plus yards with relative ease. So when you set your expectations high, right out of the gate, there's undoubtedly going to be some concern when they fall really short on that.

I think JSN will still be a good NFL WR, I never thought he was an alpha target hog type NFL player, nor did I think Seattle was a great fit. I see no reason to change my thought process on either, to date, and have more data to suggest my inclination might be right.

[Cameron Giles]

I can't find where I posted it now, but the number of rookie wr's hitting the 47 ypg threshold has been steadily increasing over the years. So it's fair to adjust rookie expectations as the league becomes more pass-happy, and the rookie wr's seem more pro-ready. It's not just people randomly deciding to be more urgent, that's just the way the league is headed and we have to adjust with it.

Yes, we are seeing more rookie WRs produce immediately over the last four years. 17 WRs have finished with 750 receiving yards or more (47 y/g) since 2019.

At the same time, some of those players came out guns blazing and some took a little bit longer. Ideal usage and production is not always instant. If 4 games is enough for you to move off a 1st round WR, then you're not doing it right. Everyone's craving linear progression, and it's not always like that.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I can't find where I posted it now, but the number of rookie wr's hitting the 47 ypg threshold has been steadily increasing over the years. So it's fair to adjust rookie expectations as the league becomes more pass-happy, and the rookie wr's seem more pro-ready. It's not just people randomly deciding to be more urgent, that's just the way the league is headed and we have to adjust with it.

Yes, we are seeing more rookie WRs produce immediately over the last four years. 17 WRs have finished with 750 receiving yards or more (47 y/g) since 2019.

At the same time, some of those players came out guns blazing and some took a little bit longer. Ideal usage and production is not always instant. If 4 games is enough for you to move off a 1st round WR, then you're not doing it right.

Yes, I totally agree with that.

[FantasyFreak]

I can't find where I posted it now, but the number of rookie wr's hitting the 47 ypg threshold has been steadily increasing over the years. So it's fair to adjust rookie expectations as the league becomes more pass-happy, and the rookie wr's seem more pro-ready. It's not just people randomly deciding to be more urgent, that's just the way the league is headed and we have to adjust with it.

Yes, we are seeing more rookie WRs produce immediately over the last four years. 17 WRs have finished with 750 receiving yards or more (47 y/g) since 2019.

At the same time, some of those players came out guns blazing and some took a little bit longer. Ideal usage and production is not always instant. If 4 games is enough for you to move off a 1st round WR, then you're not doing it right.

Yes, I totally agree with that.

I'd say it depends on price point. I'd move off him for an early first next year. Wouldn't move off him for a 2nd, that's for sure.

[Bronco Billy]

At the same time, some of those players came out guns blazing and some took a little bit longer. Ideal usage and production is not always instant. If 4 games is enough for you to move off a 1st round WR, then you're not doing it right. Everyone's craving linear progression, and it's not always like that.

I agree.

Conversely, if you’ve been advocating that a WR is a sure fire FF WR1 and then he comes out with 62 receiving yds in his first 4 games, with more than half that in one game and a total of 28 receiving yds in the other 3 combined, and you refuse to consider revising your position on him - then I’d say you’re doing it wrong too.

[Cameron Giles]

At the same time, some of those players came out guns blazing and some took a little bit longer. Ideal usage and production is not always instant. If 4 games is enough for you to move off a 1st round WR, then you're not doing it right. Everyone's craving linear progression, and it's not always like that.

I agree.

Conversely, if you’ve been advocating that a WR is a sure fire FF WR1 and then he comes out with 62 receiving yds in his first 4 games, with more than half that in one game and a total of 28 receiving yds in the other 3 combined, and you refuse to consider revising your position on him - then I’d say you’re doing it wrong too.

Yes, if I thought JSN was going to be a WR1 this season (I don't think many ever said that) then I'd surely be flipping my opinion right now.

But if I thought he could be a WR1 in the long-term, then I have no reason to change my mind right now.

[murphysxm]

Conversely, if you’ve been advocating that a WR is a sure fire FF WR1 and then he comes out with 62 receiving yds in his first 4 games, with more than half that in one game and a total of 28 receiving yds in the other 3 combined, and you refuse to consider revising your position on him - then I’d say you’re doing it wrong too.

Can you point me in the direction of anybody that has said this? I also value your opinion, but I struggle with your lack of flexibility. I was wrong on JSN to this point, I raised my hand and said I was. Others have as well. We have moved on, your turn

[Jrblaha]

I have 0 shares and won’t be buying him - thus he’s sure to rebound at some point this/next year - enjoy

[Bronco Billy]

Conversely, if you’ve been advocating that a WR is a sure fire FF WR1 and then he comes out with 62 receiving yds in his first 4 games, with more than half that in one game and a total of 28 receiving yds in the other 3 combined, and you refuse to consider revising your position on him - then I’d say you’re doing it wrong too.

Can you point me in the direction of anybody that has said this? I also value your opinion, but I struggle with your lack of flexibility. I was wrong on JSN to this point, I raised my hand and said I was. Others have as well. We have moved on, your turn

I agree that there has been good discussion towards the middle on this, but there is also the excuses for the lack of production. It’s the QB’s fault, it’s the offensive scheme’s fault for example. If you consider inflexibility on my part in maintaining that I continue to hold the opinion that he’ll be a solid WR despite my misgivings that he is not showing WR1 traits, I guess I’m inflexible.