Kyren Williams

[JoeJoe88]

Nobody's trading a Top-3 first in this class for Wliliams. I think a Top 4-6 is more realistic and probably fair. I think the Rams are going to add an RB, but I don't think it's going to be someone to be the starter. They just need RB depth overall.

I moved a 24’ 1st for him two weeks ago. At best it’s going to be the 1.07-could be the 1.10.

I wouldn’t be in the semis right now if it wasn’t for him.

[Two Cents]

There's 0% chance I would trade a high 1st for Kyren. So much can happen in the offseason

I have seen enough, no problem moving a 1st for him

Huge difference between a 1st and a top 3 1st

Which brings up the discussion (maybe not here) about what exactly can a top 3 pick accomplish that Kyren hasnt or wont moving forward in the immediate future. In my opinion unless you are getting an Adrian Peterson, Bijan, or McCaffrey level RB talent in a premium situation that you think might bring a player sustained success over the first 5 years of his career - I would move 1.3 for Kyren and some change in a heartbeat. But I also see Kyren in the same way as some might see Gibbs.

[CGW]

I have seen enough, no problem moving a 1st for him

Huge difference between a 1st and a top 3 1st

Which brings up the discussion (maybe not here) about what exactly can a top 3 pick accomplish that Kyren hasnt or wont moving forward in the immediate future. In my opinion unless you are getting an Adrian Peterson, Bijan, or McCaffrey level RB talent in a premium situation that you think might bring a player sustained success over the first 5 years of his career - I would move 1.3 for Kyren and some change in a heartbeat. But I also see Kyren in the same way as some might see Gibbs.

Two things you get with a top end first;

1. MHJ and Nabers are elite prospects, with MHJ being one of the best I've seen period. They give you top 5 WR upside for the next decade plus. Obviously it probably won't pan out that way, but there's a chance both are top end elite WRs. Similar could be argued for Odunze, but I think that's a good tier for Williams to slide in. I'd rather have Williams over the rest of the WRs in this class and all the RBs.
2. RBs jobs are almost never safe. It's unlikely Williams isn't the lead back for the Rams in 2024, but they will add depth. Hard to predict injuries, but all it takes a single injury at an injury prone position and things change rapidly in that backfield. Let's remember he missed the bulk of 2022 with an injury and then again missed several weeks in 2023. Flipping to elite WR prospects avoids this risk (but replaces it with bust risk).

[murphysxm]

Hard to predict injuries, but all it takes a single injury at an injury prone position and things change rapidly in that backfield. Let's remember he missed the bulk of 2022 with an injury and then again missed several weeks in 2023. Flipping to elite WR prospects avoids this risk (but replaces it with bust risk).

Are you saying Elite WR prospects have no injury risks?

[CGW]

Hard to predict injuries, but all it takes a single injury at an injury prone position and things change rapidly in that backfield. Let's remember he missed the bulk of 2022 with an injury and then again missed several weeks in 2023. Flipping to elite WR prospects avoids this risk (but replaces it with bust risk).

Are you saying Elite WR prospects have no injury risks?

Nope, I'm saying longevity favors the elite WRs (as does dynasty value.)

[murphysxm]

Flipping to elite WR prospects avoids this risk.

Are you saying Elite WR prospects have no injury risks?
[/quote]

Nope, I'm saying longevity favors the elite WRs (as does dynasty value.)
[/quote]

You wrote that it avoids the risk, just clarifying that wasn't the intent

[CGW]

Flipping to elite WR prospects avoids this risk.

Are you saying Elite WR prospects have no injury risks?

Nope, I'm saying longevity favors the elite WRs (as does dynasty value.)
[/quote]

You wrote that it avoids the risk, just clarifying that wasn't the intent
[/quote]

I guess I should say reduces injury risk, if that feels better for you. The point is, RBs tend to get injured more frequently.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I have seen enough, no problem moving a 1st for him

Huge difference between a 1st and a top 3 1st

Which brings up the discussion (maybe not here) about what exactly can a top 3 pick accomplish that Kyren hasnt or wont moving forward in the immediate future. In my opinion unless you are getting an Adrian Peterson, Bijan, or McCaffrey level RB talent in a premium situation that you think might bring a player sustained success over the first 5 years of his career - I would move 1.3 for Kyren and some change in a heartbeat. But I also see Kyren in the same way as some might see Gibbs.

I assume you're talking about non-SF. Draft picks can get real hairy real fast in that rookie draft format, so I get it. However, I think in general this is not a good way to look at it. You'd be betting that Kyren is a 1 in 100 type of player, considering his lack of draft capital, size, and athleticism. At least players such as Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler were great athletes.

[j4pac]

Huge difference between a 1st and a top 3 1st

Which brings up the discussion (maybe not here) about what exactly can a top 3 pick accomplish that Kyren hasnt or wont moving forward in the immediate future. In my opinion unless you are getting an Adrian Peterson, Bijan, or McCaffrey level RB talent in a premium situation that you think might bring a player sustained success over the first 5 years of his career - I would move 1.3 for Kyren and some change in a heartbeat. But I also see Kyren in the same way as some might see Gibbs.

I assume you're talking about non-SF. Draft picks can get real hairy real fast in that rookie draft format, so I get it. However, I think in general this is not a good way to look at it. You'd be betting that Kyren is a 1 in 100 type of player, considering his lack of draft capital, size, and athleticism. At least players such as Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler were great athletes.

Kyren has already proven to be 1:100 type player for his production this year. How many RBs over the past 10 years have averaged over 20 ppg? Even very good RBs struggle to do that. I counted 12 times in 10 years. I believe Kamara only did it once, Barkley only did it once…many really good RBs never did it.

[murphysxm]

Which brings up the discussion (maybe not here) about what exactly can a top 3 pick accomplish that Kyren hasnt or wont moving forward in the immediate future. In my opinion unless you are getting an Adrian Peterson, Bijan, or McCaffrey level RB talent in a premium situation that you think might bring a player sustained success over the first 5 years of his career - I would move 1.3 for Kyren and some change in a heartbeat. But I also see Kyren in the same way as some might see Gibbs.

I assume you're talking about non-SF. Draft picks can get real hairy real fast in that rookie draft format, so I get it. However, I think in general this is not a good way to look at it. You'd be betting that Kyren is a 1 in 100 type of player, considering his lack of draft capital, size, and athleticism. At least players such as Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler were great athletes.

Kyren has already proven to be 1:100 type player for his production this year. How many RBs over the past 10 years have averaged over 20 ppg? Even very good RBs struggle to do that. I counted 12 times in 10 years. I believe Kamara only did it once, Barkley only did it once…many really good RBs never did it.

Kind of where I am at as well. We keep talking about Kyren like he hasn't been incredible and consistent this year. I think he is vastly underrated and if people don't believe it is sustainable, I will gladly "over pay." Production has value I can see, potential has value I can hope for.

[JoeJoe88]

Kyren is the Brock Purdy of rbs.

Everyone will have a million reasons why he should/will fail, but he just keeps on ballin’.

[frerichs5]

Not trying to compare them as players…but Kyren situation reminds me of James Robinson (pre-injury) to an extent.

Guys no one thought much of, but just produced when given the opportunity.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Many RBs that ultimately never amounted to much of anything have had great years. It’s wild how we have this conversation literally every year.

[Cameron Giles]

Huge difference between a 1st and a top 3 1st

Which brings up the discussion (maybe not here) about what exactly can a top 3 pick accomplish that Kyren hasnt or wont moving forward in the immediate future. In my opinion unless you are getting an Adrian Peterson, Bijan, or McCaffrey level RB talent in a premium situation that you think might bring a player sustained success over the first 5 years of his career - I would move 1.3 for Kyren and some change in a heartbeat. But I also see Kyren in the same way as some might see Gibbs.

I assume you're talking about non-SF. Draft picks can get real hairy real fast in that rookie draft format, so I get it. However, I think in general this is not a good way to look at it. You'd be betting that Kyren is a 1 in 100 type of player, considering his lack of draft capital, size, and athleticism. At least players such as Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler were great athletes.

The main thing that gives me pause with conventional thinking is Sean McVay, who remains one of the best offensive minds in the league and runs wild with a scheme that doesn't seem to rely much on needing elite athletes. Of course, having Matthew Stafford helps too.

This is the Rams skill position core right now:

- Cooper Kupp - A slow, small school WR with a late breakout who became one of the best WRs of the last 5-10 years. RAS - 5
- Puka Nacua - A slow, Day 3 WR who never broke 1000 in college and has a chance to break the rookie rec. yard record. RAS - 5.17
- Kyren Williams - A slow, undersized, Day 3 RB who leads the league in rushing yards/gm. RAS - 3.45

McVay just seems to land anomaly after anomaly. I don't think any of these players would be doing what they are doing or what they've done under any other coach. It's not to say that someone like Kyren Williams will continue doing this for the rest of his career. But, when you see the difference that Williams adds to the Rams offense, it does make you wonder if he's actually better than a replacement RB in this particular scheme and that the lack of athleticism doesn't matter.

For example:

- Rams first 6 games: 30, 23, 16, 29, 14, 26. First four games are without Kupp.
- Rams in the four games Williams missed: 17, 20, 3, and 16. Kupp and Nacua played in all 4 of those games. Stafford missed 1 game.
- Williams returns, and the Rams put up: 37, 36, 31, and 28.

Especially, when he sent Cam Akers packing (RAS - 8.75), Zach Evans doesn't play (RAS - 8.79) and Royce Freeman is his backup (RAS - 8.26). That's a lot of athleticism at RB that's he's beaten out. More than likely this is Williams peak year, but there's been a lot to suggest he's better than a typical replacement RB in this particular offense.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Which brings up the discussion (maybe not here) about what exactly can a top 3 pick accomplish that Kyren hasnt or wont moving forward in the immediate future. In my opinion unless you are getting an Adrian Peterson, Bijan, or McCaffrey level RB talent in a premium situation that you think might bring a player sustained success over the first 5 years of his career - I would move 1.3 for Kyren and some change in a heartbeat. But I also see Kyren in the same way as some might see Gibbs.

I assume you're talking about non-SF. Draft picks can get real hairy real fast in that rookie draft format, so I get it. However, I think in general this is not a good way to look at it. You'd be betting that Kyren is a 1 in 100 type of player, considering his lack of draft capital, size, and athleticism. At least players such as Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler were great athletes.

The main thing that gives me pause with conventional thinking is Sean McVay, who remains one of the best offensive minds in the league and runs wild with a scheme that doesn't seem to rely much on needing elite athletes. Of course, having Matthew Stafford helps too.

This is the Rams skill position core right now:

- Cooper Kupp - A slow, small school WR with a late breakout who became one of the best WRs of the last 5-10 years. RAS - 5
- Puka Nacua - A slow, Day 3 WR who never broke 1000 in college and has a chance to break the rookie rec. yard record. RAS - 5.17
- Kyren Williams - A slow, undersized, Day 3 RB who leads the league in rushing yards/gm. RAS - 3.45

McVay just seems to land anomaly after anomaly. I don't think any of these players would be doing what they are doing or what they've done under any other coach. It's not to say that someone like Kyren Williams will continue doing this for the rest of his career. But, when you see the difference that Williams adds to the Rams offense, it does make you wonder if he's actually better than a replacement RB in this particular scheme and that the lack of athleticism doesn't matter.

For example:

- Rams first 6 games: 30, 23, 16, 29, 14, 26. First four games are without Kupp.
- Rams in the four games Williams missed: 17, 20, 3, and 16. Kupp and Nacua played in all 4 of those games. Stafford missed 1 game.
- Williams returns, and the Rams put up: 37, 36, 31, and 28.

Especially, when he sent Cam Akers packing (RAS - 8.75), Zach Evans doesn't play (RAS - 8.79) and Royce Freeman is his backup (RAS - 8.26). That's a lot of athleticism at RB that's he's beaten out. More than likely this is Williams peak year, but there's been a lot to suggest he's better than a typical replacement RB in this particular offense.

Yeah all good stuff. It just basically never works out long term for guys like him. It’s a bad bet is what I’m saying. I never said he’s not good or not better than replacement. I’m just saying he would have to be a 1 in 100 type of player.

I always say with the lack of athleticism stuff, it’s the injuries that are a killer. He broke his foot in 2022 which is not really going to cause a big drop off assuming full recovery. But if he has injuries that sap just some of his athleticism, which is likely in today’s nfl, he might be toast. Javonte Williams was similar on that way, in that full health he was a great player. But losing some of his athleticism from the knee injury and he’s basically done. And I considered him ultra talented. Javonte had decent athleticism, but given his physical playstyle, etc, I considered it “just enough” at the time. This is the issue with the players who are limited athletically. WR is a totally different story, I’m specifically talking about rbs.