Durham Smythe, TE MIA

[wickerkat1212]

What are your thoughts about Durham Smythe, TE in MIA? He seems to be the starting TE right now.

Hold?
Drop?

He is ranked as the TE75 in dynasties, not great. LOL

In at least one league I am desperate at TE and think he could be a starter for me? Am I nuts? Thanks!

[j4pac]

Gesicki is a stud and he absolutely sucked in their system last year. Definitely pass unless desperate

[wickerkat1212]

Gesicki is a stud and he absolutely sucked in their system last year. Definitely pass unless desperate

Good point.

[Jigga94]

He's a blocking TE with less than 1000 total yards in 5 years. You're nuts.

Gesicki may not be elite but he at least had potential as a receiving TE and they still didn't use him. I'd rather take a dart throw on Higgins converting to TE than Smythe

[wickerkat1212]

He's a blocking TE with less than 1000 total yards in 5 years. You're nuts.

Gesicki may not be elite but he at least had potential as a receiving TE and they still didn't use him. I'd rather take a dart throw on Higgins converting to TE than Smythe

Didn't realize that, LOL, thanks. Just saw he was the TE1 and thought there may be an opportunity. He's on an orphan team I adopted and my TEs are TERRIBLE so I thought I might keep him. He's gone. There are better options on the WW right now, TBH.

[Anteaters]

It's very important to dig deeper into the stats to figure out the reasons Gesicki didn't produce in 2022 as he did before.

One important stat for Gesicki is the number of offensive plays he was on the field. I cannot find the source at the moment, but it was mentioned several times last season that because he was such a poor blocker Gesicki did not play as many offensive plays as years before when the coach's scheme did not necessitate good blocking from the TE position. Also, before 2022, Miami ran a lot of 2TE sets. In 2022, Miami ran a lot of 1TE sets.

2022 Starts/Targets/Receptions/TDs
Smythe 15/20/15/1
Gesicki 1/52/32/5
Conner 0/3/0/0
TOTAL 16/75/47/6

2021
Smythe 12/41/34/0
Gesicki 9/112/73/2
Shaheen 7/16/12/0
Long 2/3/1/0
TOTAL 30/172/120/2

What we see is TE starts were practically halved because of the severe decrease in 2TE sets. Presumably that also led to 1/2 offensive plays played by the TE position. Accordingly, the targets and receptions went down more than 50%. Interestingly, despite playing half the plays as in 2021, TDs at the TE position increased 300% in 2022.

Rose colored glasses: One TE proves adept at both blocking and receiving and commands 85% of TE targets. That might end up around 65Tar/40Rec/450Yds/5TDs with room for upside.

I wouldn't count on Smythe matching or exceeding those numbers, but I think it's a good bet the lead TE in Miami will. The important question is whether Smythe will be the lead TE.

If he's a FA and you need position help in TEP/2TE, I think he's worth a stash for now.

More looking at the bright side through aqua+orange colored glasses: In 2021 Smythe caught 83% of his targets; in 2022 Smythe caught 75% of his targets. That's about an 80% average. That's more than Kelce's career numbers (71%), and Andrews (67%), and Kittle (72%), and Pitts (57%), and Goedert (73%). If Smythe gets a little more volume, he might look pretty good in 2023.

Final hopeful fact: It's not like McDaniel's scheme hasn't supported a T5TE for fantasy before. Kittle?

[Bronco Billy]

Who?

[wickerkat1212]

It's very important to dig deeper into the stats to figure out the reasons Gesicki didn't produce in 2022 as he did before.

One important stat for Gesicki is the number of offensive plays he was on the field. I cannot find the source at the moment, but it was mentioned several times last season that because he was such a poor blocker Gesicki did not play as many offensive plays as years before when the coach's scheme did not necessitate good blocking from the TE position. Also, before 2022, Miami ran a lot of 2TE sets. In 2022, Miami ran a lot of 1TE sets.

2022 Starts/Targets/Receptions/TDs
Smythe 15/20/15/1
Gesicki 1/52/32/5
Conner 0/3/0/0
TOTAL 16/75/47/6

2021
Smythe 12/41/34/0
Gesicki 9/112/73/2
Shaheen 7/16/12/0
Long 2/3/1/0
TOTAL 30/172/120/2

What we see is TE starts were practically halved because of the severe decrease in 2TE sets. Presumably that also led to 1/2 offensive plays played by the TE position. Accordingly, the targets and receptions went down more than 50%. Interestingly, despite playing half the plays as in 2021, TDs at the TE position increased 300% in 2022.

Rose colored glasses: One TE proves adept at both blocking and receiving and commands 85% of TE targets. That might end up around 65Tar/40Rec/450Yds/5TDs with room for upside.

I wouldn't count on Smythe matching or exceeding those numbers, but I think it's a good bet the lead TE in Miami will. The important question is whether Smythe will be the lead TE.

If he's a FA and you need position help in TEP/2TE, I think he's worth a stash for now.

More looking at the bright side through aqua+orange colored glasses: In 2021 Smythe caught 83% of his targets; in 2022 Smythe caught 75% of his targets. That's about an 80% average. That's more than Kelce's career numbers (71%), and Andrews (67%), and Kittle (72%), and Pitts (57%), and Goedert (73%). If Smythe gets a little more volume, he might look pretty good in 2023.

Final hopeful fact: It's not like McDaniel's scheme hasn't supported a T5TE for fantasy before. Kittle?

Thanks.

[Bronco Billy]

It's very important to dig deeper into the stats to figure out the reasons Gesicki didn't produce in 2022 as he did before.

One important stat for Gesicki is the number of offensive plays he was on the field. I cannot find the source at the moment, but it was mentioned several times last season that because he was such a poor blocker Gesicki did not play as many offensive plays as years before when the coach's scheme did not necessitate good blocking from the TE position. Also, before 2022, Miami ran a lot of 2TE sets. In 2022, Miami ran a lot of 1TE sets.

2022 Starts/Targets/Receptions/TDs
Smythe 15/20/15/1
Gesicki 1/52/32/5
Conner 0/3/0/0
TOTAL 16/75/47/6

2021
Smythe 12/41/34/0
Gesicki 9/112/73/2
Shaheen 7/16/12/0
Long 2/3/1/0
TOTAL 30/172/120/2

What we see is TE starts were practically halved because of the severe decrease in 2TE sets. Presumably that also led to 1/2 offensive plays played by the TE position. Accordingly, the targets and receptions went down more than 50%. Interestingly, despite playing half the plays as in 2021, TDs at the TE position increased 300% in 2022.

Rose colored glasses: One TE proves adept at both blocking and receiving and commands 85% of TE targets. That might end up around 65Tar/40Rec/450Yds/5TDs with room for upside.

I wouldn't count on Smythe matching or exceeding those numbers, but I think it's a good bet the lead TE in Miami will. The important question is whether Smythe will be the lead TE.

If he's a FA and you need position help in TEP/2TE, I think he's worth a stash for now.

More looking at the bright side through aqua+orange colored glasses: In 2021 Smythe caught 83% of his targets; in 2022 Smythe caught 75% of his targets. That's about an 80% average. That's more than Kelce's career numbers (71%), and Andrews (67%), and Kittle (72%), and Pitts (57%), and Goedert (73%). If Smythe gets a little more volume, he might look pretty good in 2023.

Final hopeful fact: It's not like McDaniel's scheme hasn't supported a T5TE for fantasy before. Kittle?

Holy crap. Really? We’ve got a 6.21 RAS TE who has been in the league 5 years now. His best year was 2021 when he averaged less than 2.5 targets a game. Last year he dropped down to barely over 1 target a game - when he ought to be in his prime. The reason his catch rate was so high as listed above was probably because opposing Ds figured they didn’t have to cover him.

I research TEs with great effort and relish and I don’t even know wtf this guy is. And bringing up Kittle anywhere while discussing him? Seriously?

How do you get guys like this on your roster? 32 team league?

[Yarnith]

The Dolphins felt so strongly about involving Smythe as a dynamic pass catcher they did this..

with the 20th pick of the 6th round the Miami Dolphins select.....
https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/mi ... -tight-end

If you wanna waste a roster spot on an unlikely Miami TE with upside get Higgins.

[FantasyFreak]

Gesecki or GeSUCKi?

Have at it!

BTW, the OP's account should be suspended for this thread. LOL. Joking.....sort of. Seriously? This is a "come on, man" moment.

If he got traded to the Bears, though. Kelce 2.0.....

[wickerkat1212]

Gesecki or GeSUCKi?

Have at it!

BTW, the OP's account should be suspended for this thread. LOL. Joking.....sort of. Seriously? This is a "come on, man" moment.

If he got traded to the Bears, though. Kelce 2.0.....

sorry bro

[FantasyFreak]

Gesecki or GeSUCKi?

Have at it!

BTW, the OP's account should be suspended for this thread. LOL. Joking.....sort of. Seriously? This is a "come on, man" moment.

If he got traded to the Bears, though. Kelce 2.0.....

sorry bro

It's as the Brits would say, "taking the piss". I'm just having some fun. No biggie.

[killer_of_giants]

And bringing up Kittle anywhere while discussing him? Seriously?

didn't you notice who you were replying to?

[Anteaters]

And bringing up Kittle anywhere while discussing him? Seriously?

didn't you notice who you were replying to?

I didn't compare Smythe to Kittle. I said only that McDaniel's offense does not preclude a TE putting up fantasy relevant stats and used Kittle as exhibit A. I went as far as to say Smythe may not even turn out to be Miami's primary TE. All I was trying to get across was that in a land of almost worthless free agents, if a fantasy manager in a TEP and/or 2TE league has a need for a TE and he has an empty roster spot, Smythe might be as good as a dart throw flyer as anyone else likely to be available.

The odds are promising. The longshot is there. And that's half of what we do in fantasy. We take a few guys we hope are sure shots, we take a lot of JAGs and hope they improve, and we take a few longshots and wait and wait and wait for the miracle transformation. It's obvious that Smythe has not been as good as Kittle.. Smythe is a longshot ... but if he has the ability to seize the moment, the situation exists for him to shoot his shot.

And for anyone with an inch of comprehension skills, I put the potential best-case stats for Smythe very modest, at only 450 yds. Doesn't sound like Kittle like stats to me. But maybe skim readers got something different out of it?