SEA RBs - Walker v Charbonnet

[Bronco Billy]

This seems like a topic worthy of discussion. I’ll put forth my thoughts and let the discussion go where it may. I’ll also be completely candid and have refrained from posting on this until I was able to capture Charbonnet with my 1.10 pick this morning, so you know where my dog is in this hunt.

Walker had a good year by overview last season. He didn’t start the entire season but was able to rush for over 1k yds in 228 carries. He was entering the 2023 with the assumption that he would be an undisputed RB1 with talk of his being a top 5 dynasty RB.

The Seattle changed the landscape and shocked FFers by selecting Charbonnet in the 2nd round, giving him roughly equivalent draft capital with Walker.

So we can we read from this? I’ve seen analysis by FF experts saying the Charbonnet is going to back up Walker or be SEA’s CoP RB and I think that is pretty misgiven.

Let’s start by looking at the HC and his philosophy. There are chunkers and grinders in coaching.

The chunkers base philosophy is to look to gain large gobs of yards in single plays. They are willing to take greater risks to achieve this because they are looking to put up lots of points, putting pressure on their opponent to try to keep up with them and thereby forcing them out of their comfort zone and into making mistakes. The chunker HC’s ideal drive is a 2 play 75 yd TD that finishes with a long TD run or catch that was set up by a previous play that forced the D into a subsequent vulnerable situation. They don’t fret when they miss on a pass play that costs them a down or they have a holding call that sets them back 10 yds - they just extend their next play and move forward.

The grinders on the other hand want to physically dismantle their opponent. The want to stay on script and ahead of the chains, taking less risk and moving relentlessly down the field in smaller pieces. Their ideal drive is a 14 play 75 yd drive that ends on a TD on 3rd down from their opponent’s 2 yd line. Their intent is to disrupt the opponent by tiring out their D, keeping the O cooling their heels on the sidelines and not gaining a rhythm, and protecting their own D by giving them lots of rest during the long drives. An offside penalty is a disaster to them because it gets them off schedule and puts them in unfavorable down and distance situations.

Pete Carroll is a grinder. He loves to control the game and beat up opposing Ds by running the football. Over the past 11 seasons, when his teams rush over 500 times in a season they win at a .700 clip, whereas when they rush under 500 times in a season he wins at a .580 clip. That’s a big difference.

Now looking at Walker’s successful 2022, drilling down we see something very relevant: Walker runs like a scatback. He was 2nd in the NFL in chunk runs of 20+ plays, but he also was 4th worst in the NFL in being stuffed on his runs at 23.7%. He had an admirable 4.6 ypa on his 228 carries, but all other SEA RBs combined for 122 carries at 5.1 ypa. He is not particularly adept as a receiver though he is functional, and his pass protection isn’t great. He plays like a small, faster RB who either gashes the D or gets stonewalled.

That 23.7% stuff rate would stick in the craw of a grinder HC. That puts his O behind the chains a lot. Add to that SEA didn’t come close to 500 rushing attempts, rushing 425 times despite the added 17th regular season game.

That’s where I see the Charbonnet pick being Carroll making a major statement on his intent next season. He plans to run the ball a lot more and Charbonnet is the type of RB that grinders absolutely adore. Big, powerful, always moving forward, putting the team in positive down/distance scenarios. Plus he’s a plus in the passing game both as a receiver and in protection.

So let’s say Pete wants to get back to running the ball a lot more. If he goes back to his nature, there’s a very real and reasonable possibility that SEA runs the ball 550 times in a 17 game season. Say the QB runs 60 times and other RBs run another 20, that leaves 470 rushes for Walker and Charbonnet. That means Walker can still get 230-235 carries and leave 235-240 carries for Carbonnet who is more condusive to the grinding game plan. That also would mean that Walker has enough opportunity to repeat his success last season while allowing Charbonnet to also be successful and letting both guys spell each other in games. It allows SEA to diversify their running game by forcing Ds to cope with 2 very different running styles, and potentially could allow both guys to share the backfield on some plays

If the bigger Charbonnet gets more goal line work and he also is the better receiver, that also means that while Walker can repeat his success, Charbonnet could reasonably surpass him and be the better FF option. That’s where I believe SEA is headed and that’s why I’m not buying into the negative narrative on Charbonnet. He’s a great fit in this offense and Carroll made him a 2nd round pick despite Walker being there for just that reason. Don’t get fooled by the narrative - Charbonnet is at a bargain price right now in FF drafts.

[FantasyFreak]

I haven't dropped Walker at all in my dynasty ranks, and I was high on Charbs. I think due to the landing spot, Charbs will never be what I wanted him to be, but now that he's a fraction of the price, he doesn't need to be. I'd have no issue rostering both. I still think Walker will out touch Charbs, I think he's the more talented player, but Charbs has a different skill set, and one that compliments Walkers. The Hawks RB needed more talent, and they certainly got it. That offense got a whole lot better with their draft this year.

I don't think it's likely Charbs passes him for FF purposes. A lot would have to go right for him, but I think he can be a functional flex play. Charbs isn't a whole lot bigger, 5 pounds, and his BMI is actually less, so not so certain he's cut out for all the GL work over Walker. Both players they intend to use on 3rd downs, at least for now, is what they have said.

For year 1, it's very unlikely Charbs gets the touch count you stated. At least not early. Typically round 2 backs take a bit or so to see a significant touch count. From Chubb, to Breece and a litany of other examples, typically they don't get a high touch count right out of the gate, barring injury, but certainly at some point, he can.

In today's game, 2 quality backs are a must for most teams, and it doesn't mean we should shy away from either of them, at the right price.

[Cameron Giles]

Very sound post.

It's going to be interesting to see whether Seattle remains more pass-driven as they were last year with Geno, or if they do revert back to being a more run-based offense. But, as you said, there's more historical evidence that they are going to run the ball a lot more and the Charbonnet pick adds gasoline to that fire. Once you get past the initial landing spot disappointment, you see that Charbonnet is being dropped too far. He's absolutely going to play and can very easily eat into the upside of Walker.

It seems like the evolving trend in the NFL is to eliminate the workhorse back. We'll still see a player or two defy that here and there, but featured RB snap shares are decreasing significantly.

Top 5 snap shares last year at RB:

Barkley - 75%, Jacobs - 74%, CMC - 73%, Cook - 72%, Stevenson - 66%.

A RB finishing Top-5 in snap share with 66% is so rare.

It seems like teams want to keep the primary back fresh, and because of that, it's creating more of a need to have two good backs to play that other 40-50% of snaps. Ingram/Kamara, Chubb/Hunt, and Zeke/Pollard seem to be the poster boys of this.

Last season:

Chubb - 56.2%, Hunt - 41.8%
Pollard - 49%, Zeke - 48%

We're looking at something very similar to Chubb/Hunt as Carroll's end game.

[FantasyFreak]

Very sound post.

It's going to be interesting to see whether Seattle remains more pass-driven as they were last year with Geno, or if they do revert back to being a more run-based offense. But, as you said, there's more historical evidence that they are going to run the ball a lot more and the Charbonnet pick adds gasoline to that fire. Once you get past the initial landing spot disappointment, you see that Charbonnet is being dropped too far. He's absolutely going to play and can very easily eat into the upside of Walker.

It seems like the evolving trend in the NFL is to eliminate the workhorse back. Featured RB snap shares are decreasing significantly. Teams want to keep the primary back fresh, and because of that, it's creating more of a need to have two good backs to play that other 40-50% of snaps. Ingram/Kamara, Chubb/Hunt, and Zeke/Pollard seem to be the poster boys of this.

Especially now that there are 17 games. Look at Mixon's SB year. He had a high touch count, and added a whole bunch more through 4 game playoff stretch. Didn't look at all the same the next year. Henry is an outlier, there aren't too many DH's, and of course, he finally ended up getting hurt, with his high touch count. CMC had 2 injury plagued years following his big year.

It's just the new paradigm. With the addition of RBBC, you may have lower upside, but your guys also might be on the field more, without missing games.

[Cameron Giles]

Very sound post.

It's going to be interesting to see whether Seattle remains more pass-driven as they were last year with Geno, or if they do revert back to being a more run-based offense. But, as you said, there's more historical evidence that they are going to run the ball a lot more and the Charbonnet pick adds gasoline to that fire. Once you get past the initial landing spot disappointment, you see that Charbonnet is being dropped too far. He's absolutely going to play and can very easily eat into the upside of Walker.

It seems like the evolving trend in the NFL is to eliminate the workhorse back. Featured RB snap shares are decreasing significantly. Teams want to keep the primary back fresh, and because of that, it's creating more of a need to have two good backs to play that other 40-50% of snaps. Ingram/Kamara, Chubb/Hunt, and Zeke/Pollard seem to be the poster boys of this.

Especially now that there are 17 games. Look at Mixon's SB year. He had a high touch count, and added a whole bunch more through 4 game playoff stretch. Didn't look at all the same the next year. Henry is an outlier, there aren't too many DH's, and of course, he finally ended up getting hurt, with his high touch count. CMC had 2 injury plagued years following his big year.

It's just the new paradigm. With the addition of RBBC, you may have lower upside, but your guys also might be on the field more, without missing games.

Spot on.

It's going to take a while for everyone to accept the new reality. Committees aren't a new thing, but putting elite, workhorse RBs in a committee and lowering their snap share is. Of course, there will be RBs here and there who come along and defy that. Derrick Henry as you mentioned is an outlier.

I think the other bonus for teams with this structure is that it allows you to move on from RBs easier when they want to get paid. You always have the next guy up on the roster.

If Charbonnet starts dropping to 1.10-1.12, he is a big time value for rookie drafts. He can be relevant playing 40-45% of snaps, and he will always have that upside if Walker misses games. Ditto for Walker, who we've seen go off when Penny missed all of last season.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

This seems like a topic worthy of discussion. I’ll put forth my thoughts and let the discussion go where it may. I’ll also be completely candid and have refrained from posting on this until I was able to capture Charbonnet with my 1.10 pick this morning, so you know where my dog is in this hunt.

Walker had a good year by overview last season. He didn’t start the entire season but was able to rush for over 1k yds in 228 carries. He was entering the 2023 with the assumption that he would be an undisputed RB1 with talk of his being a top 5 dynasty RB.

The Seattle changed the landscape and shocked FFers by selecting Charbonnet in the 2nd round, giving him roughly equivalent draft capital with Walker.

So we can we read from this? I’ve seen analysis by FF experts saying the Charbonnet is going to back up Walker or be SEA’s CoP RB and I think that is pretty misgiven.

Let’s start by looking at the HC and his philosophy. There are chunkers and grinders in coaching.

The chunkers base philosophy is to look to gain large gobs of yards in single plays. They are willing to take greater risks to achieve this because they are looking to put up lots of points, putting pressure on their opponent to try to keep up with them and thereby forcing them out of their comfort zone and into making mistakes. The chunker HC’s ideal drive is a 2 play 75 yd TD that finishes with a long TD run or catch that was set up by a previous play that forced the D into a subsequent vulnerable situation. They don’t fret when they miss on a pass play that costs them a down or they have a holding call that sets them back 10 yds - they just extend their next play and move forward.

The grinders on the other hand want to physically dismantle their opponent. The want to stay on script and ahead of the chains, taking less risk and moving relentlessly down the field in smaller pieces. Their ideal drive is a 14 play 75 yd drive that ends on a TD on 3rd down from their opponent’s 2 yd line. Their intent is to disrupt the opponent by tiring out their D, keeping the O cooling their heels on the sidelines and not gaining a rhythm, and protecting their own D by giving them lots of rest during the long drives. An offside penalty is a disaster to them because it gets them off schedule and puts them in unfavorable down and distance situations.

Pete Carroll is a grinder. He loves to control the game and beat up opposing Ds by running the football. Over the past 11 seasons, when his teams rush over 500 times in a season they win at a .700 clip, whereas when they rush under 500 times in a season he wins at a .580 clip. That’s a big difference.

Now looking at Walker’s successful 2022, drilling down we see something very relevant: Walker runs like a scatback. He was 2nd in the NFL in chunk runs of 20+ plays, but he also was 4th worst in the NFL in being stuffed on his runs at 23.7%. He had an admirable 4.6 ypa on his 228 carries, but all other SEA RBs combined for 122 carries at 5.1 ypa. He is not particularly adept as a receiver though he is functional, and his pass protection isn’t great. He plays like a small, faster RB who either gashes the D or gets stonewalled.

That 23.7% stuff rate would stick in the craw of a grinder HC. That puts his O behind the chains a lot. Add to that SEA didn’t come close to 500 rushing attempts, rushing 425 times despite the added 17th regular season game.

That’s where I see the Charbonnet pick being Carroll making a major statement on his intent next season. He plans to run the ball a lot more and Charbonnet is the type of RB that grinders absolutely adore. Big, powerful, always moving forward, putting the team in positive down/distance scenarios. Plus he’s a plus in the passing game both as a receiver and in protection.

So let’s say Pete wants to get back to running the ball a lot more. If he goes back to his nature, there’s a very real and reasonable possibility that SEA runs the ball 550 times in a 17 game season. Say the QB runs 60 times and other RBs run another 20, that leaves 470 rushes for Walker and Charbonnet. That means Walker can still get 230-235 carries and leave 235-240 carries for Carbonnet who is more condusive to the grinding game plan. That also would mean that Walker has enough opportunity to repeat his success last season while allowing Charbonnet to also be successful and letting both guys spell each other in games. It allows SEA to diversify their running game by forcing Ds to cope with 2 very different running styles, and potentially could allow both guys to share the backfield on some plays

If the bigger Charbonnet gets more goal line work and he also is the better receiver, that also means that while Walker can repeat his success, Charbonnet could reasonably surpass him and be the better FF option. That’s where I believe SEA is headed and that’s why I’m not buying into the negative narrative on Charbonnet. He’s a great fit in this offense and Carroll made him a 2nd round pick despite Walker being there for just that reason. Don’t get fooled by the narrative - Charbonnet is at a bargain price right now in FF drafts.

1) With the season at 17 and eventually 18 games, virtually every team is going to move towards some type of committee. So as a Walker owner, this is just going to become the new normal. And I think for the most part, it's a good thing (keep rb fresh and healthy).

2) The negatives you outlined with Walker, and this is not directed at you but just people in general, is this weird assumption that a ROOKIE can't improve his shortcomings. I've been hearing this narrative on various podcasts and posts about a variety of players and it baffles me. If anything, in theory, the biggest leap should come in year 2 after the acclimation time as a rookie. So while as a rookie Walker may have went for the homerun too often, that doesn't mean it would be the case in year 2. To think the 23% stuff rate defines Walker's career is idiocy (again, not saying you're saying this but many see the number and then think it's set in stone) but there are many who actually think like that in the fantasy space. We've seen countless very talented players struggle in an area as a rookie and improve on it greatly throughout their career.

I was listening to a podcast the other day talking about a rookie QB last year and they were citing numbers and statistics and were like "yeah these rates aren't good for us so this player isn't good" and I'm like HELLO HE'S A ROOKIE HE CAN IMPROVE. It's just so odd to me.

3) As far as Charbonnet being better than Walker for fantasy, it's one thing to see a player in college and do projections and all that, it's another to see them in the NFL etc. Walker is proven to be a good RB in the NFL so until we see otherwise I don't think it's wise to project Charbonnet being better than Walker, in real life or for fantasy. If he somehow takes ALL the passing and goal-line work, then yeah sure. But we'll have to see on that. I don't think it's likely.

[frerichs5]

Top 5 snap shares last year at RB:

Barkley - 75%, Jacobs - 74%, CMC - 73%, Cook - 72%, Stevenson - 66%.

A RB finishing Top-5 in snap share with 66% is so rare.

Interesting stat! And you could argue Stevenson would have been even lower if not for the injury to Harris.

[FantasyFreak]

1) With the season at 17 and eventually 18 games,
[/quote]


This is likely at least 8 years away. I'm still amazed they accepted 17. 18 Will be even worse for player's careers, and RB especially. They need their own union.

[FantasyFreak]

1) With the season at 17 and eventually 18 games,

This is likely at least 8 years away. I'm still amazed they accepted 17. 18 Will be even worse for player's careers, and RB especially. They need their own union.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

1) With the season at 17 and eventually 18 games,

This is likely at least 8 years away. I'm still amazed they accepted 17. 18 Will be even worse for player's careers, and RB especially. They need their own union.
[/quote]

Yeah, out of all the things the players lost on, the amount of games was probably the biggest one. If I were the players I woulda fought like hell to keep it at 16.

[Cameron Giles]

Top 5 snap shares last year at RB:

Barkley - 75%, Jacobs - 74%, CMC - 73%, Cook - 72%, Stevenson - 66%.

A RB finishing Top-5 in snap share with 66% is so rare.

Interesting stat! And you could argue Stevenson would have been even lower if not for the injury to Harris.

Right. The last three seasons, there has only been 1 RB to eclipse an 80% snap share.

Just for comparison, five years ago we had a season with 6 RBs with an 80% snap share or higher (CMC, Zeke, Gurley, Saquon, Da. Johnson, Conner)

The other thing and it's a duh statement, but....it's dynasty. Things can change quickly. RBs miss games with injuries all of the time. RBs get suspended. Who knows, trades happen too. Dropping Charbonnet too far is a big mistake.

[Bronco Billy]

1) With the season at 17 and eventually 18 games, virtually every team is going to move towards some type of committee. So as a Walker owner, this is just going to become the new normal. And I think for the most part, it's a good thing (keep rb fresh and healthy).

2) The negatives you outlined with Walker, and this is not directed at you but just people in general, is this weird assumption that a ROOKIE can't improve his shortcomings. I've been hearing this narrative on various podcasts and posts about a variety of players and it baffles me. If anything, in theory, the biggest leap should come in year 2 after the acclimation time as a rookie. So while as a rookie Walker may have went for the homerun too often, that doesn't mean it would be the case in year 2. To think the 23% stuff rate defines Walker's career is idiocy (again, not saying you're saying this but many see the number and then think it's set in stone) but there are many who actually think like that in the fantasy space. We've seen countless very talented players struggle in an area as a rookie and improve on it greatly throughout their career.

I was listening to a podcast the other day talking about a rookie QB last year and they were citing numbers and statistics and were like "yeah these rates aren't good for us so this player isn't good" and I'm like HELLO HE'S A ROOKIE HE CAN IMPROVE. It's just so odd to me.

3) As far as Charbonnet being better than Walker for fantasy, it's one thing to see a player in college and do projections and all that, it's another to see them in the NFL etc. Walker is proven to be a good RB in the NFL so until we see otherwise I don't think it's wise to project Charbonnet being better than Walker, in real life or for fantasy. If he somehow takes ALL the passing and goal-line work, then yeah sure. But we'll have to see on that. I don't think it's likely.

All good points, but this is FF and as an owner you have to make a decision that you either believe in the talent or you don’t. You could make the same argument about Allgeier having proved he can play in the bigs while Bijan hasn’t taken a snap yet.

I’ve outlined in other threads why I believe that Charbonnet is the 2nd best RB in this draft and a true 3 down/all situational RB. He also is the type of RB grinders love because those coaches will sacrifice home runs for reliability, and say what you want but Walker did not demonstrate reliability last season - and that does not diminish his year last year, that’s just not how he wins at the NFL level (or at least didn’t last year). We’ll see if his vision and decisiveness improves. I understand that others do not evaluate Charbonnet as highly as I do. But I did think the back and forth would be worthwhile. I’m both astonished and ecstatic that I got Charbonnet at 1.10

[Dynasty DeLorean]

All good points, but this is FF and as an owner you have to make a decision that you either believe in the talent or you don’t. You could make the same argument about Allgeier having proved he can play in the bigs while Bijan hasn’t taken a snap yet.

Well sure, but those are two wildly different talent levels with wildly different draft capital. If those things are equal, then the wise move in my opinion is to side with the more proven player. Just my opinion anyway.

[FantasyFreak]

I am not quite as bullish on Charbs as Billy, but I am high on him. Just not vs Walker. I think Walker is the touch leader in the backfield, and I am looking to acquire him at a discount. I'm also looking to acquire Charbs, if the price is that cheap. Can't have enough good RB's IMO. I find WR production way easier to replace in FF, in terms of trade cost.

One thing that drives me nuts about FF podcasters, is the berate the pick, act like it's a terrible pick, that it makes no sense...bla bla bla. The act as if football revolves around Fantasy Football, rather than the other way around. Tail wagging the dog analysis. The pick makes sense from a scheme and philosophical stand point.

Charbonnet is a different type of back, and he provides a skill set that is desired. He's going to be a part of the Seahawks success as a football team. I don't understand why people have to view it as an indictment on Walker, or an indictment on Charbonnet, because it makes total sense in terms of a football move.

The Hawks took Charbonnet as their 4 pick of the draft, yeah, it was a bit of a luxury pick for some, but their RB room had so little talent behind Walker. Barren cupboard. The room got more talent, and there are now 2 guys they are comfortable having on the field for significant snaps, which is what every team wants.

FF analysts do a disservice when refusing to acknowledge real football and why it makes sense, because we don't like it for FF purposes, and act as if these GM's or coaches don't know what they are doing. It's really low caliber analysis.

[halfbaked88]

When an NFL team is spending 2nd round capital on a new RB it's saying "something" about the RB that's already there.

I'm not saying that as knock on KW - just speaking facts, SEA felt they needed more from the position. That by itself is no big deal. Every team adds depth and different types of runners. The big factor here is they used dang near a Top 50 pick...... That goes beyond just "adding another running back." Charbonnet is guaranteed a chunk of the offense, getting utilized early and often.

What semi-worries me about reducing the workload on a RB like KW is his play-style kinda needs to volume to offset the lost yardage when he's trying to hit those home runs. Some running backs need those 20 touches otherwise they don't find that momentum, they don't "connect" with the big play and they disappear in games.

When the team has access to another talented RB you get the whole "hot hand" headache as a fantasy owner. Now that's fun on gameday line-up decisions. You just know Pete Carroll is a "hot hand" guy. I can see the fantasy blurbs clear as day even as I type this now.

KWs value is substantial. I don't think it's a bad idea to use it to roll that value into an elite WR/QB i.e. someone safer.