SEA RBs - Walker v Charbonnet

[Sriracha]

Holding. I have two Charb shares, and I am not selling low.

I have tried to buy Charb in leagues where I own KW3, but sellers still looking for a late 24 1st in 12 team SF leagues, which is too rich for me to pay right now.

What would be the point of selling him?

He's an elite handcuff. If you really want to move off you really don't have any choice but to wait until Walker gets injured (like all RBs eventually do) and his value spikes.

Because he's a genuinely good talent he's going to have a lot more trade value than some other elite handcuffs of the past like Alexander Mattison.

Maybe as a win now move?

I have been flipping between contender and pretender all season in one league where I own KW3.
Sure, I want Charbs, but I am not paying a mid 24 1st in a 12 team SF league for him.

Right now the team in 1st place is winning despite Charbonnet's performance.
I just made him an offer of Mostert + Keenan Allen for Charbs and his late 24 1st.

Maybe he takes, it, maybe he doesn't....we'll see.

You can probably get more for those guys to a contender. I'd snap that offer up if I were pushing all my chips in this year

[MacDaddy123]

That’s where he was going after this past NFL draft and now he’s shown he can play in the league. You expect his value to drop?

Player's performance generally does relate to their current values.
For instance, most would agree that Stroud, LaPorta, and Puka values have increased to the point that all 3 are viewed as 1st round values.
Obviously, for players to move up into 1st round value, other players values have to drop out of 1st round value.

Just the way the game is played. Values change as time rolls on.

Many spent 1st round rookie picks on Elijah Moore a few years back, does he still hold 1st round value?
How about Jeudy, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Rashod Bateman, CEH, Dobbins, Akers, Trey Burks, Jameson Williams?
Are they all still holding 1st round value?

The point being that post draft assessments of him have been pretty much proven to be spot on, which verifies his previous value. Why would his value drop to the same draft slot a year later?

Perhaps because of a better draft class?
Most I know feel that the 2023 draft class was fairly weak, and that 2024 promises to be a stronger draft class.

Highly doubtful that Charbonnet would have been a 1st round rookie pick in 2021 or 2022.
Rookie draft classes change from year to year.

In fact, Charbonnet was not a 1st round pick in 2 of my 6 rookie drafts.
Went at 2.01 and 2.03 in 2 of my 12 team SF rookie drafts, so one might ask what has he done to increase his value so far?
Charbs went at 1.13 in my 14 team SF league.

I also think that almost all Charbonnet truthers were expecting him to share more of the backfield with Walker than he has through 7 weeks.
I know a few who even thought that Charbs would lead the Seattle backfield by mid-season.

[Jigga94]

Charbonnet had a few decent runs this week. Still think he dances too much, but he's a load to bring down and has good hands. Was the 1st game he out snapped Walker.

Walker had 9 touches this past week. He had 16+ in every other game so far. Probably just a 1 game blip, might be injury related (he missed Wed/Th practice with Calf injury), but something to keep an eye on

[Sriracha]

From the week 8 thread but it's probably more relevant here:

Yeap, both of these guys are a different style of very good RBs and it's not unusal for rookie RBs to be eased into the offense.

I do think there is going to be be a bit of a hot hand approach to those two with Walker being the preferred back.. but for anyone that thought Walker was head and shoulders the better RB talent, you may be right, but I'm certainly not comfortable projecting that based on what we've seen out of Charb when he's been given opportunities.

I mean, Charbs is good, never denied that. The OL was a huge reason for his 2 big runs in the 2nd half, and Walker, would have done better with that convoy, due to his explosiveness, just saying. There's plays Charbs gets 20 that Walker would have housed, or gone for 40. They are different backs, though, as you say. Charbs is a good player, and he'll absolutely have a bigger role than he did the first half of the season, IMO. However, he's still the RB2, and always will be, when the 2 are fully healthy.

I think with the way Geno played today, it was good to have 2 backs, who both didn't touch the ball all that much by the late 2nd half, because his throws were off target a lot, and a good run game really helped to create some good PA passing with better separation. Honestly, I was surprised how the Seattle OL did, in the run game today, vs a very good Browns D. Didn't see the start of the game, just getting caught up, but on the 2 Charbonnet runs that he had chunk yardage in the 2nd half, the OL was winning big time. I saw both Charbs and K Walker had a big YPC in the first half too, so assuming the OL was doing fairly well there.

If the OL can do a better job, like today, in the run game, it bodes well for all parties involved, moving forward. Charbs may be flex worthy if they can be consistent. It's tough to have a RB that's talented, but not as talented as a lead back, unless the OL play is really good, for the run game. Having 2 RB's be FF start worthy can happen if the OL is balling, and both RB"s are gaining chunk yardage, OR if one is a big time pass catcher and the other is a big time runner, but the Hawks don't throw to the RB enough, so we are looking for option 1. The OL can block well enought that both backs can have more efficient touches.

Walker I predicted for 280 plus touches, but his work load was heavy, the first half. With a calf, and the wear and tear of the season, I'd expect him to be scaled back a bit. He had 26 carries the week before, load management is real, for any RB, in a 17 game season. Charbs is fresher, for sure, and I expect Carroll to increase his workload the 2nd half.

https://twitter.com/CoachspeakIndex/sta ... 8833475586

Some extra context into Charbonnet's playing time.

Pete isn't the most trustworthy source when it comes to injuries but this in combination with how Walker looked on Sunday it seems likely that Charbonnet's playing time was not related to the Walker injury and we could see a "hot hand approach" to these guys going forward.

Time will tell.

[StripesOfKC]

https://twitter.com/jmthrivept/status/1 ... 0019888506

[FantasyFreak]

https://twitter.com/jmthrivept/status/1 ... 0019888506

https://twitter.com/football_sis/status ... 0299625713

[Dynasty DeLorean]

https://twitter.com/jmthrivept/status/1 ... 0019888506

I’m a big stats guy but it’s painfully obvious when people only use them to confirm their priors.

Chris Johnson only had 2.0 ypc in I-Formation in 2010. He blows!

[killer_of_giants]

https://twitter.com/jmthrivept/status/1 ... 0019888506

I’m a big stats guy but it’s painfully obvious when people only use them to confirm their priors.

Chris Johnson only had 2.0 ypc in I-Formation in 2010. He blows!

also, i have no idea what those numbers are for other RBs.

[StripesOfKC]

I don't know how I'd feel about a broken tackles stat that speaks well of Najee 'run 2 yards and fall down' Harris

[mild]

At the risk of just taking this "all stats, no brakes"

... I don't know if I particularly buy this one (because the person charting it would have to "know" / decide which gap was the correct one for the play each time)

But if nothing else, it's definitely hilarious for our boy Walker.

How often teams don't run into their intended run gap (x-axis), and their rushing success rate when that happens (y-axis). The Bucs have 22 rushes where the runner doesn't run into the gap they're supposed to, and they've had an unsuccessful rush on every single play

He's just out here taking a Jazz solo on every snap.

[FantasyFreak]

At the risk of just taking this "all stats, no brakes"

... I don't know if I particularly buy this one (because the person charting it would have to "know" / decide which gap was the correct one for the play each time)

But if nothing else, it's definitely hilarious for our boy Walker.

How often teams don't run into their intended run gap (x-axis), and their rushing success rate when that happens (y-axis). The Bucs have 22 rushes where the runner doesn't run into the gap they're supposed to, and they've had an unsuccessful rush on every single play

He's just out here taking a Jazz solo on every snap.

You could also attribute it to the fact the blocking isn't good. Walker has created some big plays rather than plowing into the back of his lineman, for a 1 yard gain, on the designed run. Walker sometimes takes a risk, at a bigger play, rather than a short gain, no doubt, it's part of who he is. So is being really good.

I mean, I'd be interested to see where this falls. Outside zone, the intended gap is likely somewhere else, but he sees 6 overpursuing. Hits the cut back gap up the middle for a big chunk.

https://twitter.com/egghand_fandumb/sta ... 2098450668

This one, definitely not the intended gap.

https://twitter.com/egghand_fandumb/sta ... 2098450668

Or this

https://twitter.com/hawkmania4/status/1 ... 1691312223

Here's some jazz. There's nothing really much there once the C gets thrown into his way, yes, you could have taken a short gain, but this is why he's different. It's going to work sometimes, and sometimes it won't.

https://twitter.com/ChuxMaranan/status/ ... 5042217039

There were plays like this vs the Lions, too, where there's just nothing there, but he gets like 15 yards.

Anyways, yeah Walker often doesn't hit the intended hole, but it's not necessarily a bad thing. There are a lot of stuffed runs where he does, and yet he'll get blamed for a stuffed run. Sure, there are times where perhaps he makes the wrong read, or tries to do a bit too much, but it's not like it was last year. He's picking his spots a whole lot better, and the staff have aknowledged this. He's a very elusive back that can create on his own like few can.

https://twitter.com/ChuxMaranan/status/ ... 6468769850

[FantasyFreak]

I don't know how I'd feel about a broken tackles stat that speaks well of Najee 'run 2 yards and fall down' Harris

Well, I mean it's forced missed tackles as well, and ETN and CMC among others are also there, seems like you're cherry picky Najee. It's cool, you're not high on Walker, doesn't bother me. I think Charbs is a solid back. I just think Walker's better. The Seahawks will use both, they don't care about FF, they want to win.

One things for certain, both KW and Charbs should touch the ball more than they did last week. Walker was definitely being managed, he was on the sideline testing out/stretching his calf, at times, so something to monitor this week. He didn't carry an injury designation, but I never completely trust ole Pete with that stuff.

[mild]

You could also attribute it to the fact the blocking isn't good. Walker has created some big plays rather than plowing into the back of his lineman, for a 1 yard gain, on the designed run. Walker sometimes takes a risk, at a bigger play, rather than a short gain, no doubt, it's part of who he is. So is being really good.

Sure. But to respectfully play "devils advocate"... not hitting the correct Gap assignment consistently (and in fact, doing it wrong more often than just about anyone else in the league) is the kind of thing that annoys coaches no end - and can often lead to another player who is technically "not as talented" getting more run instead.

An extreme example perhaps being Cam Akers vs. Kyren Williams... nobody out here is confusing Kyren for a top tier physical talent, but there's no question he executes the play "as called" incredibly consistently. (Just look at that chart!)

But it's all good in this case, cos there's nobody behind Walker whose a threat to take more snap share and execute the assignment any better, so I think we're safe here... no need to worry...

... right?

[FantasyFreak]

You could also attribute it to the fact the blocking isn't good. Walker has created some big plays rather than plowing into the back of his lineman, for a 1 yard gain, on the designed run. Walker sometimes takes a risk, at a bigger play, rather than a short gain, no doubt, it's part of who he is. So is being really good.

Sure. But to respectfully play "devils advocate"... not hitting the correct Gap assignment consistently (and in fact, doing it wrong more often than just about anyone else in the league) is the kind of thing that annoys coaches no end - and can often lead to another player who is technically "not as talented" getting more run instead.

An extreme example perhaps being Cam Akers vs. Kyren Williams... nobody out here is confusing Kyren for a top tier physical talent, but there's no question he executes the play "as called" incredibly consistently. (Just look at that chart!)

But it's all good in this case, cos there's nobody behind Walker whose a threat to take more snap share and execute the assignment any better, so I think we're safe here... no need to worry...

... right?

Coaches have talked about it, and Walker's elite ability to create. Akers can't do what Walker does in those clips. Apples and oranges. Akers isn't the talent Walker is, nor did he ever have the trust of the coaches like KW does. Definitely no need to worry, IMO. Never has been. Walker will hit the 280 touch projection I stated, barring injury. He's an upper tier NFL RB, in his prime. I've never been worried. Not all season, or off season. He's just too good to not be on the field a bunch.

His ball security has been great, to date as well. Hasn't fumbled yet, to my knowledge.


I mean, I'd be interested to see where this falls in that chart. Outside zone, the intended gap is likely somewhere else, but he sees 6 overpursuing. Hits the cut back gap up the middle for a big chunk.

https://twitter.com/egghand_fandumb/sta ... 2098450668

This one, definitely not the intended gap.

https://twitter.com/egghand_fandumb/sta ... 2098450668

Or this

https://twitter.com/hawkmania4/status/1 ... 1691312223

Here's some jazz. There's nothing really much there once the C gets thrown into his way, yes, you could have taken a short gain, but this is why he's different. It's going to work sometimes, and sometimes it won't.

https://twitter.com/ChuxMaranan/status/ ... 6468769850

There were plays like this vs the Lions, too, where there's just nothing there, but he gets like 15 yards.

Again, not the intended gap.

https://twitter.com/ChuxMaranan/status/ ... 5042217039

Anyways, yeah Walker often doesn't hit the intended hole, but it's not necessarily a bad thing. There are a lot of stuffed runs where he does, and yet he'll get blamed for a stuffed run. Sure, there are times where perhaps he makes the wrong read, or tries to do a bit too much, but it's not like it was last year. He's picking his spots a whole lot better, and the staff have aknowledged this. He's a very elusive back that can create on his own like few can.

[mild]

Here's some jazz. There's nothing really much there once the C gets thrown into his way, yes, you could have taken a short gain, but this is why he's different. It's going to work sometimes, and sometimes it won't.

You don't need to sell me on him being a *very* good back. The fact that he's succeeding with this "jazz improvisation" style - despite the fact that he's consistently off-script - is why I was saying he's hilarious in the first place. I've always been a fan, I am in no doubt of his talent.

But again, I think you're dodging the point by just posting more highlight rosterbation. I understand that reflex, but you should be careful you don't let your love of the player blind you to the looming situation.

If there's another very talented back on the roster, who executes the scheme better... I think you're deluding yourself if you don't think that guy is going to eat into his carry-share in this modern time-share NFL. This could easily continue tilting more Charbonnet's way imo - the coaching staff is putting more and more trust in him, especially this week just been.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if it's the start of something.