2023 Draft

[Tvols]

Must we continue all of this Cowboys banter? We all already know the Cowboys suck and their fans are even worse. Only thing they are good at doing is selecting in the first rounds and leaving their fans disappointed every year.

What I would expect for a 12 year old .

[Jigga94]

Moved him up a round on my draft board due to landing spot. Many don't believe in Akers or Kyren and somebody needs to run the ball so he seems a solid target in late rounds.

Was that after you knocked him down 2 rounds for going undrafted? This was a guy that was supposed to be a day 2 pick not long ago. Very bad fall

He was drafted in round 6.

My bad. You're right. So... Was that after you knocked him down 2 rounds for getting drafted in the 6th round? This was a guy that was supposed to be a day 2 pick not long ago. Very bad fall

[saw061600]

Was that after you knocked him down 2 rounds for going undrafted? This was a guy that was supposed to be a day 2 pick not long ago. Very bad fall

He was drafted in round 6.

My bad. You're right. So... Was that after you knocked him down 2 rounds for getting drafted in the 6th round? This was a guy that was supposed to be a day 2 pick not long ago. Very bad fall

I moved him down after not going day 2, then landing spot had me move him back up. 2 rounds down but a net of 1 down after landing spot is a fair assumption. Too many league mates on here to say which round he is now

[Jigga94]

He was drafted in round 6.

My bad. You're right. So... Was that after you knocked him down 2 rounds for getting drafted in the 6th round? This was a guy that was supposed to be a day 2 pick not long ago. Very bad fall

I moved him down after not going day 2, then landing spot had me move him back up. 2 rounds down but a net of 1 down after landing spot is a fair assumption. Too many league mates on here to say which round he is now

That's all I was really getting at. Landing spot is fairly good considering Akers history. The OL still needs work (i think) but hes definitely fallen from a few months back

[Patsfan86]

Man just what a weird draft Boutte and Tucker are now absolute screaming values for me. You can probably scoop those 2 guys up in the 3rd or later at absolutely no risk. Meanwhile you have to spend an early first on a QJ who many have questions on including myself. Tho I think his ceiling is massive if everything goes right. There is an alternate universe where Boutte is this years rookie WR1 and Tucker is this years rookie RB3. Just crazy

[halfbaked88]

Man just what a weird draft Boutte and Tucker are now absolute screaming values for me. You can probably scoop those 2 guys up in the 3rd or later at absolutely no risk. Meanwhile you have to spend an early first on a QJ who many have questions on including myself. Tho I think his ceiling is massive if everything goes right. There is an alternate universe where Boutte is this years rookie WR1 and Tucker is this years rookie RB3. Just crazy

This is where the fantasy football community's evaluations, hopes and wishes meet real life.

Every year, after the draft, the NFL abruptly tells us what we should think about these types of players. Frankly, people die in fantasy in a matter of days. You just say your goodbyes and close the casket. If a player truly has WR1 and RB3 outcomes... the chance that professional NFL evaluators would have let them slide this far down is very, very small. Like a 6th round WR?... eesh

I somewhat agree on the minimal risk if you can get them at late 3rd/4th rookie pick prices... that's if I have multiple 3rds and 4ths to burn and go into it knowing I'll probably be over the roster limit and flat out dropping them or stashing them on taxi or taking a fat 0 when all is said and done.

If I'm ever making those late picks seriously considering this guy might finish #1 rookie in the class I think I gotta pull back and temper expectations big time.

Personally, in that range, I'm probably just taking RBs like Zach Evans, Evan Hull, DeWayne McBride, Deuce Vaughn, etc

[Gazzerk]

He was cleared, so I'm not going to say he should give up on his dream. Teams clearly don't want to risk drafting him with capital for the position he plays, which is low on the NFL value scale. Mo Hurst (DL) was supposed to be a top 50 pick and went in the 5th a few years back, due to a heart thing, he was able to carve out a solid career.

True. I think heart stuff just always freaks me out. If he was cleared to play then he’s probably okay to do so and I’m sure a team will give him a crack as an UFA. Maybe he’ll be the next Arian Foster.

He signed with Tampa Bay already.

Yeah I saw that right after I posted. That’s a good song at least. Not a bad spot either.

[Patsfan86]

Man just what a weird draft Boutte and Tucker are now absolute screaming values for me. You can probably scoop those 2 guys up in the 3rd or later at absolutely no risk. Meanwhile you have to spend an early first on a QJ who many have questions on including myself. Tho I think his ceiling is massive if everything goes right. There is an alternate universe where Boutte is this years rookie WR1 and Tucker is this years rookie RB3. Just crazy

This is where the fantasy football community's evaluations, hopes and wishes meet real life.

Every year, after the draft, the NFL abruptly tells us what we should think about these types of players. Frankly, people die in fantasy in a matter of days. You just say your goodbyes and close the casket. If a player truly has WR1 and RB3 outcomes... the chance that professional NFL evaluators would have let them slide this far down is very, very small. Like a 6th round WR?... eesh

I somewhat agree on the minimal risk if you can get them at late 3rd/4th rookie pick prices... that's if I have multiple 3rds and 4ths to burn and go into it knowing I'll probably be over the roster limit and flat out dropping them or stashing them on taxi or taking a fat 0 when all is said and done.

If I'm ever making those late picks seriously considering this guy might finish #1 rookie in the class I think I gotta pull back and temper expectations big time.

Personally, in that range, I'm probably just taking RBs like Zach Evans, Evan Hull, DeWayne McBride, Deuce Vaughn, etc

I used the words alternate universe for a reason. I really just meant they have a lot of talent Imo but other things have happened or their personalities take away from that talent. I mean Boutte in the 3rd offers no risk Imo, how often do 3rd round picks even work? May as well take these guys there.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Man just what a weird draft Boutte and Tucker are now absolute screaming values for me. You can probably scoop those 2 guys up in the 3rd or later at absolutely no risk. Meanwhile you have to spend an early first on a QJ who many have questions on including myself. Tho I think his ceiling is massive if everything goes right. There is an alternate universe where Boutte is this years rookie WR1 and Tucker is this years rookie RB3. Just crazy

This is where the fantasy football community's evaluations, hopes and wishes meet real life.

Every year, after the draft, the NFL abruptly tells us what we should think about these types of players. Frankly, people die in fantasy in a matter of days. You just say your goodbyes and close the casket. If a player truly has WR1 and RB3 outcomes... the chance that professional NFL evaluators would have let them slide this far down is very, very small. Like a 6th round WR?... eesh

I somewhat agree on the minimal risk if you can get them at late 3rd/4th rookie pick prices... that's if I have multiple 3rds and 4ths to burn and go into it knowing I'll probably be over the roster limit and flat out dropping them or stashing them on taxi or taking a fat 0 when all is said and done.

If I'm ever making those late picks seriously considering this guy might finish #1 rookie in the class I think I gotta pull back and temper expectations big time.

Personally, in that range, I'm probably just taking RBs like Zach Evans, Evan Hull, DeWayne McBride, Deuce Vaughn, etc

I used the words alternate universe for a reason. I really just meant they have a lot of talent Imo but other things have happened or their personalities take away from that talent. I mean Boutte in the 3rd offers no risk Imo, how often do 3rd round picks even work? May as well take these guys there.

I looked back on this in one of my leagues and on average you get about 2-3 startable players per year in the 3rd round. Some notable examples would be Dak, Kupp, McLaurin, James Conner, Goedert. Last year Allgeier and potentially Sam Howell (and potentially Brian robinson). Year before that you had Rhamandre. Of course it will be different for every league. So ~20% chance of getting a usable fantasy asset really isn’t that bad. The 4th round is where things really drop off a cliff.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

This is where the fantasy football community's evaluations, hopes and wishes meet real life.

Every year, after the draft, the NFL abruptly tells us what we should think about these types of players. Frankly, people die in fantasy in a matter of days. You just say your goodbyes and close the casket. If a player truly has WR1 and RB3 outcomes... the chance that professional NFL evaluators would have let them slide this far down is very, very small. Like a 6th round WR?... eesh

I somewhat agree on the minimal risk if you can get them at late 3rd/4th rookie pick prices... that's if I have multiple 3rds and 4ths to burn and go into it knowing I'll probably be over the roster limit and flat out dropping them or stashing them on taxi or taking a fat 0 when all is said and done.

If I'm ever making those late picks seriously considering this guy might finish #1 rookie in the class I think I gotta pull back and temper expectations big time.

Personally, in that range, I'm probably just taking RBs like Zach Evans, Evan Hull, DeWayne McBride, Deuce Vaughn, etc

I used the words alternate universe for a reason. I really just meant they have a lot of talent Imo but other things have happened or their personalities take away from that talent. I mean Boutte in the 3rd offers no risk Imo, how often do 3rd round picks even work? May as well take these guys there.

I looked back on this in one of my leagues and on average you get about 2-3 startable players per year in the 3rd round. Some notable examples would be Dak, Kupp, McLaurin, James Conner, Goedert. Last year Allgeier and potentially Sam Howell. Year before that you had Rhamandre. Of course it will be different for every league. So ~20% chance of getting a usable fantasy asset really isn’t that bad. The 4th round is where things really drop off a cliff.

That’s actually great information. Alit of those guys get flipped into higher picks as well. Makes me want to stash a bunch of thirds in the future for cheap. Roster space is probably the big issue.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I used the words alternate universe for a reason. I really just meant they have a lot of talent Imo but other things have happened or their personalities take away from that talent. I mean Boutte in the 3rd offers no risk Imo, how often do 3rd round picks even work? May as well take these guys there.

I looked back on this in one of my leagues and on average you get about 2-3 startable players per year in the 3rd round. Some notable examples would be Dak, Kupp, McLaurin, James Conner, Goedert. Last year Allgeier and potentially Sam Howell. Year before that you had Rhamandre. Of course it will be different for every league. So ~20% chance of getting a usable fantasy asset really isn’t that bad. The 4th round is where things really drop off a cliff.

That’s actually great information. Alit of those guys get flipped into higher picks as well. Makes me want to stash a bunch of thirds in the future for cheap. Roster space is probably the big issue.

Yup, for every real hit, there’s probably another set of players of the same number that you could flip. Doubs, Wandale, Chuba, Gainwell, Khalil Herbert, Ridder, Josh Palmer, shenault, kmet, dionte Johnson, singleterry, mattison, Hayden hurst, nyheim hines, DJ chark, , I mean the names are endless. All those guys could potentially pull a 2 or higher at some point.

In one league I flipped Herbert for a future 1 which turned into the 1.02, in another I traded Rhamandre for 1st round value. I used to be a package and trade up guy because the hit rate is better the higher the draft pick, and while that’s still true, the hit rate for your team is better with more shots. So I put a ton of value into the amount of shots I can take in rookie drafts now, much more than I used to.

Edit: using the multiple shots in the 3rd can drastically increase your odds of a hit. If we say 1 shot gives you 17% odds, 2 shots gives you around 31% and 3 shots brings it up to 42% (odds of a 1st round rookie pick hitting is 45%, per some article I pulled up). The price to acquire 3 3rds is not that high and it gives you a 42% of drafting a legit starter, and an even higher probabailtiy of drafting a player that might not actually be any good but that you could flip later for more value.

[lukkynumber13]

Deuce Vaughn to Dallas? Welp, RIP Tony Pollard. Your time as the man was fun while it lasted

Really? I don't feel he's a threat at all, but what do I know.

I was 100% being sarcastic with my comment about him robbing from Pollard

Pollard certainly won’t be a 300 carry guy this year, but that has nothing to do with a 6th round scat back who’s my wife’s height

[halfbaked88]

Just killing time like a degenerate. Here's a rough draft set of post-draft rookie rankings for fun. Anything seem really out of place. Who'd I miss?

-Rookie Superflex Rankings-
1.01 Bijan
1.02 Anthony Richardson
---
1.03 Bryce Young
1.04 C.J. Shroud
1.05 Gibbs
1.06 JSN
---
1.07 Addison
1.08 QJ
1.09 Flowers
---
1.10 Will Levis
1.11 Dalton Kincaid
1.12 Devon Achane
2.01 Michael Mayer
---
2.02 Zach Charbonnet
2.03 Kendre Miller
2.04 Jonathan Mingo
2.05 Hendon Hooker
---
2.06 Rashee Rice
2.07 Jayden Reed
2.08 Sam LaPorta
2.09 Tyjae Spears
2.10 Roschon Johnson
2.11 Luke Schoonmaker
2.12 Luke Musgrave
---
3.01 Tank Bigsby
3.02 Marvin Mims
3.03 Josh Downs
3.04 Chase Brown
3.05 Israel Abanikanda
3.06 Jalin Hyatt
3.07 Evan Hull
3.08 Brenton Strange
3.09 Cedric Tillman
3.10 Tucker Kraft
3.11 Darnell Washington
3.12 Michael Wilson
---
4.01 Eric Gray
4.02 Zach Evans
4.03 Deuce Vaughn
4.04 Kayshon Boutte
4.05 Chris Rodriguez
4.06 Tank Dell
4.07 Sean Tucker
4.08 Lew Nichols
4.09 DeWayne McBride
4.10 Kenny McIntosh
4.11 ??
4.12 ??

???

[abloom]

Just killing time like a degenerate. Here's a rough draft set of post-draft rookie rankings for fun. Anything seem really out of place. Who'd I miss?

-Rookie Superflex Rankings-
1.01 Bijan
1.02 Anthony Richardson
---
1.03 Bryce Young
1.04 C.J. Shroud
1.05 Gibbs
1.06 JSN
---
1.07 Addison
1.08 QJ
1.09 Flowers
---
1.10 Will Levis
1.11 Dalton Kincaid
1.12 Devon Achane
2.01 Michael Mayer
---
2.02 Zach Charbonnet
2.03 Kendre Miller
2.04 Jonathan Mingo
2.05 Hendon Hooker
---
2.06 Rashee Rice
2.07 Jayden Reed
2.08 Sam LaPorta
2.09 Tyjae Spears
2.10 Roschon Johnson
2.11 Luke Schoonmaker
2.12 Luke Musgrave
---
3.01 Tank Bigsby
3.02 Marvin Mims
3.03 Josh Downs
3.04 Chase Brown
3.05 Israel Abanikanda
3.06 Jalin Hyatt
3.07 Evan Hull
3.08 Brenton Strange
3.09 Cedric Tillman
3.10 Tucker Kraft
3.11 Darnell Washington
3.12 Michael Wilson
---
4.01 Eric Gray
4.02 Zach Evans
4.03 Deuce Vaughn
4.04 Kayshon Boutte
4.05 Chris Rodriguez
4.06 Tank Dell
4.07 Sean Tucker
4.08 Lew Nichols
4.09 DeWayne McBride
4.10 Kenny McIntosh
4.11 ??
4.12 ??

???

For me it's (12 team SF)

1.01 Bijan
1.02 young
1.03 Stroud
----
1.04 Richardson
----
1.05 Gibbs
1.06 JSN
----
Trade out
----
1.07 Attison
1.08 Johnson
1.09 Flowers
----
Trade out
----
1.10 Levis
----
Trade out
---
1.11 Meyer
1.12 Kincaid
2.01 la porta
----

Haven't really dove any more than that. Those trade out spots are areas where I don't actually think that the nest group is worth what is traditionally seen as value for those picks.if I have the 1.07 and my top 6 are gone I want to trade out or back. Preferably out entirely because I don't think the value ends of getting back on track until probably 2.04-2.06.
This class has great top tier talent and has good depth, but the perceived best players in not the top tiers I don't think are significantly better than others in that tier.

With regards to richardson. I think is potential is the highest of all rookies in SF, and if you are willing to put him at 1.02 I'm confused why not at 1.01. for me though I learned that I prefer to not miss with my firsts than try to take the most upside. I think there is a clear difference between young/stroud & Richardson. Richardson needs to develop. Certainly with the draft capital invested with him the colts believe he will be, but he is far from a sure thing.

In a 12 teamer I also don't see that much of a difference between young, stroud,.and bijan. I have bijan ahead by a hair, but.the career length of QBs and rbs is significantly different enough that I don't really think bijan is significantly better. I'll note when it comes to 14+ SF leagues bijan is my 1.03.

Overall seems like we agree on the vast majority of picks. I don't really think you can go wrong with the top 6, it's everything after that that I think is disappointing. The fact that a second round QB made the top 12 (I believe 2nd round QBs have something like a 20% hit rate) I think demonstrates this.

[halfbaked88]

For me it's (12 team SF)

1.01 Bijan
1.02 young
1.03 Stroud
----
1.04 Richardson
----
1.05 Gibbs
1.06 JSN
----
Trade out
----
1.07 Attison
1.08 Johnson
1.09 Flowers
----
Trade out
----
1.10 Levis
----
Trade out
---
1.11 Meyer
1.12 Kincaid
2.01 la porta
----

Haven't really dove any more than that. Those trade out spots are areas where I don't actually think that the nest group is worth what is traditionally seen as value for those picks.if I have the 1.07 and my top 6 are gone I want to trade out or back. Preferably out entirely because I don't think the value ends of getting back on track until probably 2.04-2.06.
This class has great top tier talent and has good depth, but the perceived best players in not the top tiers I don't think are significantly better than others in that tier.

With regards to richardson. I think is potential is the highest of all rookies in SF, and if you are willing to put him at 1.02 I'm confused why not at 1.01. for me though I learned that I prefer to not miss with my firsts than try to take the most upside. I think there is a clear difference between young/stroud & Richardson. Richardson needs to develop. Certainly with the draft capital invested with him the colts believe he will be, but he is far from a sure thing.

In a 12 teamer I also don't see that much of a difference between young, stroud,.and bijan. I have bijan ahead by a hair, but.the career length of QBs and rbs is significantly different enough that I don't really think bijan is significantly better. I'll note when it comes to 14+ SF leagues bijan is my 1.03.

Overall seems like we agree on the vast majority of picks. I don't really think you can go wrong with the top 6, it's everything after that that I think is disappointing. The fact that a second round QB made the top 12 (I believe 2nd round QBs have something like a 20% hit rate) I think demonstrates this.

Richardson's the only rookie QB that can crack the Top8 dynasty QBs to me with his NFL team's current situation; and do it quickly just off rushing alone. Young and Stroud don't have the weapons. They're pocket-passing QBs that need WRs. They would need to become "Joe Burrow" in a sense and it just ain't happening in CAR and HOU in 2023. They'll be lucky to be "Kirk Cousins" in production by the end of the year where AR could either be ahead of Justin Fields now or ready to be abandoned for a late1st like Justin Fields was Week 1-4 last year. I.e it doesn't matter what Richardson's passing #s look like as long as he's giving you Top5 or similar spike weeks with his legs.

I'm still taking Bijan over AR because going #8 overall in the NFL as an RB is the most surefire thing you could ask for. Richardson's outcome is nowhere near as certain. But the reward on an elite QB in Superflex puts him in the same tier for me.

I have a 16tm 4pt passing TD league with the 1.02 and I'm hoping Bijan goes ahead of me to make the decision on AR easier.

Then I have a regular 12tm 6pt passing TD league with the 1.03 and I'm hoping both Bijan+AR go ahead of me because I don't actually want to take AR in that league lol. Also, I want to diversify my players so I don't want two copies of Richardson. Rankings are always subject to league format and situation.