You Should Be Up on Josh Downs

[Anteaters]

I just get all kinds of hot-young-receiver-flashes-before-coming-back-down-to-earth vibes about this. We just went through it with Jeudy/EMoore/3differentGBreceivers/and more. Downs is good, but he's not so immensely talented his skill rises above everything else. His situation matters greatly. And I don't think his situation is trustworthy.

Holding isn't a bad idea, but a mid1st in SF would be too good for me to say no to. A 2nd and I'm definitely holding.

Downs isn't going to post 125 yards every game, or get as open as he did on a wheel route each game. That said, he's a Day 2 WR with an 87th percentile breakout, and checked out big time in a lot of advanced stats that you want to see from a WR prospect.

There's going to be variance in every young WR. Statistical improvement is not linear and dynasty is a game of peaks and valleys. But, so far Downs looks exactly like the player in the OP and was always a perfect fit for this offense as a pure separator who increases the teams high % pass plays.

His skill set and talent is not coming back down to earth. The way he wins is very sustainable.

I don't dispute his talent. I like his talent and think his talent is good enough to be a good fantasy player in the right situation.

As I tried to explain, it's his situation that is my biggest concern.

[Cameron Giles]

I don't dispute his talent. I like his talent and think his talent is good enough to be a good fantasy player in the right situation.

As I tried to explain, it's his situation that is my biggest concern.

As much as the Colts have history, it's hard to believe this current team can truly support fantasy studs at QB/RB/WR1/WR2 and a promising TE. If Irsay gets cheap and lets Pittman move on, I'd feel great about Downs. If Pittman stays, I think Downs becomes a better version of Dotson for fantasy purposes. Not comparing their styles in real life, but their situations. A talented WR who is his NFL team's WR2, and that NFL team does not have a top NFL offense, will never be a great consistent fantasy producer. Pittman is too good to be ignored in predicting the future of Downs.

Downs doesn't need to be the #1 WR in this offense to feel great about his future. Obviously, that'd be amazing, but it's just a big ask for that to give you optimism. Their roles are completely different and they can co-exist and producd well together. I don't see Pittman as a roadblock in his upside.

Steichen's offenses have supported multiple fantasy relevant WRs and a good RB in Los Angeles and Philadelphia. If Richardson becomes the type of player that they think he can, then that will continue in Indianapolis.

[CGW]

I just get all kinds of hot-young-receiver-flashes-before-coming-back-down-to-earth vibes about this. We just went through it with Jeudy/EMoore/3differentGBreceivers/and more. Downs is good, but he's not so immensely talented his skill rises above everything else. His situation matters greatly. And I don't think his situation is trustworthy.

Holding isn't a bad idea, but a mid1st in SF would be too good for me to say no to. A 2nd and I'm definitely holding.

Downs isn't going to post 125 yards every game, or get as open as he did on a wheel route each game. That said, he's a Day 2 WR with an 87th percentile breakout, and checked out big time in a lot of advanced stats that you want to see from a WR prospect.

There's going to be variance in every young WR. Statistical improvement is not linear and dynasty is a game of peaks and valleys. But, so far Downs looks exactly like the player in the OP and was always a perfect fit for this offense as a pure separator who increases the teams high % pass plays.

His skill set and talent is not coming back down to earth. The way he wins is very sustainable.

I don't dispute his talent. I like his talent and think his talent is good enough to be a good fantasy player in the right situation.

As I tried to explain, it's his situation that is my biggest concern.

I agree that Minshew is largely benefitting Downs vs Richardson currently, but I also think there's plenty of optimism around Downs's performances in Richardson games too. Downs was getting almost 17% of Richardson's targets vs 20% for Minshew. Either way, I do believe that will continue to grow regardless of who the QB is. The guy just runs good routes.

[Anteaters]

I think we might be arguing semantics and missing the point of the question asked. The question was "If the answer is to move him, what are folks looking for?"

I said I'd definitely trade away Downs in exchange for a mid 1st in SF.
I said I'd hold Downs if the best offer was a 2nd.

Does anyone disagree with that?

[CGW]

I think we might be arguing semantics and missing the point of the question asked. The question was "would would you do with Downs?"

I said I'd definitely trade away Downs in exchange for a mid 1st in SF.
I said I'd hold Downs if the best offer was a 2nd.

Does anyone disagree with that?

I agree with that assessment of trade possibilities. I doubt many will offer mid firsts currently, and no way I'd sell for a 2nd now. So somewhere between those two values lies his market.

[Cameron Giles]

I think we might be arguing semantics and missing the point of the question asked. The question was "If the answer is to move him, what are folks looking for?"

I said I'd definitely trade away Downs in exchange for a mid 1st in SF.
I said I'd hold Downs if the best offer was a 2nd.

Does anyone disagree with that?

+ Everyone would offer a random 2nd for Downs right now, but nobody would trade him for that.
- Everyone would trade Downs for a mid-first in SF, but nobody would offer that pick for him.

The value is somewhere in the middle I think.

Right now, I'd say he's worth a mid-to-late 2024 1st in non-premium leagues and a late 1st in SF. He's putting around up the same numbers as Zay Flowers right now:

Zay Flowers (22 years old): 39/442/1, 90.4 FPG in 7 games
Josh Downs (22 years old): 33/402/2, 85.1 FPG in 7 games

[wickerkat1212]

Thanks for all of the thoughts on Downs vs my roster. Yeah, I have him at about a WR3/WR4/Flex right now. Trying to see if it's better to hold him and keep him (he's young and talented) and then move one of my other WRs for a RB upgrade or the opposite.

I really like what I'm seeing from him.

[FantasyFreak]

Thanks for all of the thoughts on Downs vs my roster. Yeah, I have him at about a WR3/WR4/Flex right now. Trying to see if it's better to hold him and keep him (he's young and talented) and then move one of my other WRs for a RB upgrade or the opposite.

I really like what I'm seeing from him.

Minshew is likely better for him than Richardson would have been. I'd want a first for him, for sure.

[MacDaddy123]

I think we might be arguing semantics and missing the point of the question asked. The question was "If the answer is to move him, what are folks looking for?"

I said I'd definitely trade away Downs in exchange for a mid 1st in SF.
I said I'd hold Downs if the best offer was a 2nd.

Does anyone disagree with that?

+ Everyone would offer a random 2nd for Downs right now, but nobody would trade him for that.
- Everyone would trade Downs for a mid-first in SF, but nobody would offer that pick for him.

The value is somewhere in the middle I think.

Right now, I'd say he's worth a mid-to-late 2024 1st in non-premium leagues and a late 1st in SF. He's putting around up the same numbers as Zay Flowers right now:

Zay Flowers (22 years old): 39/442/1, 90.4 FPG in 7 games
Josh Downs (22 years old): 33/402/2, 85.1 FPG in 7 games

Actually Flowers is 11 months older than Downs, and just turned 23 years old on September 11th 2023.
Downs will turn 23 in August 2024.

[Jigga94]

I think we might be arguing semantics and missing the point of the question asked. The question was "If the answer is to move him, what are folks looking for?"

I said I'd definitely trade away Downs in exchange for a mid 1st in SF.
I said I'd hold Downs if the best offer was a 2nd.

Does anyone disagree with that?

+ Everyone would offer a random 2nd for Downs right now, but nobody would trade him for that.
- Everyone would trade Downs for a mid-first in SF, but nobody would offer that pick for him.

The value is somewhere in the middle I think.

Right now, I'd say he's worth a mid-to-late 2024 1st in non-premium leagues and a late 1st in SF. He's putting around up the same numbers as Zay Flowers right now:

Zay Flowers (22 years old): 39/442/1, 90.4 FPG in 7 games
Josh Downs (22 years old): 33/402/2, 85.1 FPG in 7 games

Actually Flowers is 11 months older than Downs, and just turned 23 years old on September 11th 2023.
Downs will turn 23 in August 2024.

Ackshuallllly

[tstafford]

He's putting around up the same numbers as Zay Flowers right now:

Zay Flowers (22 years old): 39/442/1, 90.4 FPG in 7 games
Josh Downs (22 years old): 33/402/2, 85.1 FPG in 7 games

Thanks for posting that. I doubt the average FF manager would have guessed they are that close. Flowers has been more or less a line-up lock in 12-team PPR redraft.

As to the value, it's interesting how often we have players that the answer is "I'd give a second" but "I'd only take a first". And Downs is now squarely in that category. Only team I have him on is a rebuild where I have four '24 firsts so I'm holding in that case. Overall I'm glad to see that folks don't view Downs as a sell-high who is likely unable to sustain this type of production.

I thin at this point there are only four '23 rookie WRs I'd rather own than Downs - Addison, JSN, Puka and Flowers. Side note: it's nice to see that the top end of the WR class has mostly held up. (I never believed in QJ).

[lukkynumber13]

I liked Downs during the draft process and took him in my SF league.

Question: how much do we think his production is tied to AR being hurt? Is he a sell high? Or has he emerged and thus a hold?

I think part of his pro breakout is due to AR being hurt, but I don't think that will hurt him when AR returns. AR is good enough and smart enough to throw to Downs, one of his best WRs.

My biggest worry for Downs' fantasy production is the presence of Pittman. As much as the Colts have history, it's hard to believe this current team can truly support fantasy studs at QB/RB/WR1/WR2 and a promising TE. If Irsay gets cheap and lets Pittman move on, I'd feel great about Downs. If Pittman stays, I think Downs becomes a better version of Dotson for fantasy purposes. Not comparing their styles in real life, but their situations. A talented WR who is his NFL team's WR2, and that NFL team does not have a top NFL offense, will never be a great consistent fantasy producer. Pittman is too good to be ignored in predicting the future of Downs.

If the answer is to move him, what are folks looking for?

Moving him or keeping him depends on each manager's stance on his future. If you're confident his current stats are just the beginning of a Aiyuk like rise, you have to keep him and hope he maintains this level of production. If you think his production is unsustainable, trading him now seems like it would produce the most value he'll ever be worth.

If I could get a first, I'd have a hard time convincing myself not to take the deal. My doubts are that 1) AR returns 2) Irsay doesn't pay Minshew and Minshew leaves in the offseason 3) Pittman remains. If those things happen, Downs' production is going to be capped at a level I don't think will be what it is now.

I just get all kinds of hot-young-receiver-flashes-before-coming-back-down-to-earth vibes about this. We just went through it with Jeudy/EMoore/3differentGBreceivers/and more. Downs is good, but he's not so immensely talented his skill rises above everything else. His situation matters greatly. And I don't think his situation is trustworthy.

Holding isn't a bad idea, but a mid1st in SF would be too good for me to say no to. A 2nd and I'm definitely holding.

We have a promising young TE?

News to me!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I like Downs, I just have questions whether he can be a #1. And if he can’t, that’s ok. But then pivoting to a guy that can might be the move. Downs reminded me of a mini-Steve Smith coming out of college.

Flowers and Downs stats are very similar but I thought Flowers profiled more as a #1 than Downs. Flowers is bigger, stronger, faster, and a more consistent route runner.

[Cameron Giles]

I like Downs, I just have questions whether he can be a #1. And if he can’t, that’s ok. But then pivoting to a guy that can might be the move. Downs reminded me of a mini-Steve Smith coming out of college.

Flowers and Downs stats are very similar but I thought Flowers profiled more as a #1 than Downs. Flowers is bigger, stronger, faster, and a more consistent route runner.

I had that as the biggest advantage for Downs over Flowers. To me, Downs was the better route runner and separator. I think he arguably has the best release packages in this class. His footwork is the best in this class to me. Also, better at catchpoint than Flowers.

Flowers no slouch with his route running though either and more proven as a winner on the outside and more dynamic I think with the ball in his hands. Flowers kind of reminds me of Diggs.

[Orenthal Shames]

I think we might be arguing semantics and missing the point of the question asked. The question was "If the answer is to move him, what are folks looking for?"

I said I'd definitely trade away Downs in exchange for a mid 1st in SF.
I said I'd hold Downs if the best offer was a 2nd.

Does anyone disagree with that?

+ Everyone would offer a random 2nd for Downs right now, but nobody would trade him for that.
- Everyone would trade Downs for a mid-first in SF, but nobody would offer that pick for him.

The value is somewhere in the middle I think.

Right now, I'd say he's worth a mid-to-late 2024 1st in non-premium leagues and a late 1st in SF. He's putting around up the same numbers as Zay Flowers right now:

Zay Flowers (22 years old): 39/442/1, 90.4 FPG in 7 games
Josh Downs (22 years old): 33/402/2, 85.1 FPG in 7 games

He was already going mid-late 2nd in 1QB drafts. He's undoubtedly gained value.