Alvin Kamara; What are you guys doing?

[AllEliteDynasty]

Alvin has been a consistent stud throughout his career in the NFL, and this past year had what some would call a down year. When you look into the numbers, it actually appears his 2022 season mirrors his 2021 season, with the main difference being less touchdowns. Touchdowns are usually extremely volatile, so that shouldn't be much of a concern. The team is likely to upgrade at the quarterback position, which should help them get into the endzone more often. That said, the elephant in the room is there. Alvin likely faces some sort of suspension for his antics at last years Pro Bowl.

With all things considered, what are you doing with Alvin? If I'm a rebuilding team then I would stay far away. But now for the contenders, do you take him knowing the talent is there, and just hope for a 2 game suspension? New Orleans has never been a "handcuff" situation, like how people used to roster Pollard during the prime Ezekiel years so getting Kamaras handcuff seems unrealistic.

[Csl312]

I had a down year because of injuries and some flukes, and sold him at the trade deadline for a late 23 1st and a throw in. I figured that was probably the last opportunity to get first round value out of him. The offense as a whole is regressed from his peak. And he's getting to past his prime age. With the expectation that he will be sitting for a few games at least next season I felt like he probably will not be a top 10 RB again.

That said I would probably grab pick him up for a mid 2nd if he was available at that price. Once his suspension is announced. You have to hope that he is more consistent when he is playing because he had some duds that definitely lost weeks for me this year.

[PBFalcon]

As someone who doesn't own him anywhere, I am not going out of my way to aquire him.
I think his best years are behind him and that brees/Payton/Kamara were the perfect storm but that won't be replicated again. I wouldn't let a potential suspension influence my opinion on him though.
I would be looking to sell him if I had him to someone that values him as a 1st. I might give up a 2nd for him (or sell him for a 2nd) but that is dependent how this draft and combine shake out. There are a few RB prospects that could be available that I would rather have.

[j4pac]

I’d take a 1st for him but not selling him for a second. He is still and elite receiver, which can translate to a longer career. But the play calling has been really bad. I think the Saints would benefit by getting a bellcow RB to share the load with Kamara and allow Kamara to work the edges.

Charbonnet and Kamara would be a great tandem

[Jigga94]

I own him on a team that's been doing very well (sort of) in spite of him. I'll probably put him on the block and see if I can use him in a package or buy back some years at RB with him + a pick. But I'm in no way selling short. I think his skillset will age fine as long as they go back to his old usage...

He's a lock to get 250+ touches as he has the past several years. 50 receptions is his floor. I think as he gets older now, his carries should be going down and receptions back up (last 2 years trended the opposite direction).

He probably gets susp 4-6 games so obviously his season totals will be down but on a per game basis, I don't think I can get a better RB2/flex for his declining price. Going to most likely be holding for the long haul and hoping he can rack up receptions in his later years and still provide solid PPR value. Think Sproles later years where he was still getting 50+ receptions, with more carries

[Tvols]

contender u are holding and mid of road or rebuild moving on. I would buy for a late 2nd 3rd, sell for early 2nd or late first which I doubt many will give, as a contender he probably facing a 6 game band or so. He is no longer elite flex play or rb 3 is fine.

[frerichs5]

I have him on a contender and am simply holding.

One thing I don’t see discussed too often is the possibility he is released from the Saints. If he is a post June 1 cut designation, they save nearly 10m in cap space. The saints are currently projected with the worst cap situation in the league at the moment (most over the cap for 2023; I think I’ve read 57m over). They’re going to have to do something. Maybe it doesn’t end up happening, but should be considered a possibility he is on a different team next year.

[Pullo Vision]

I have him on a contender and am simply holding.

One thing I don’t see discussed too often is the possibility he is released from the Saints. If he is a post June 1 cut designation, they save nearly 10m in cap space. The saints are currently projected with the worst cap situation in the league at the moment (most over the cap for 2023; I think I’ve read 57m over). They’re going to have to do something. Maybe it doesn’t end up happening, but should be considered a possibility he is on a different team next year.

Yep, posted about it in another thread. They restructured Thomas, seems clear they'll cut him.

I believe in Kamara's talent long term and that his skillset can age well. My concern is two straight years of setting career lows in targets, catches and rec yards. I was anticipating Dalton starting after Winston's injury would fix that, but he ended the 4 games after the bye (all Dalton starts) with 6 total catches and 57 total rec yards. I've never been not concerned about the limited rushing because the receiving role was always his path. But, the last two years really show his post Brees floor there.

Overall, the offense struggled last year- low scoring, among the league worst in turnovers and red zone TD efficiency. With limited cap to address QB and no 1st, the opportunities for improvement this year are the playcalling/scheme with OC Pete Carmichael retained and better injury luck (link).

With the suspension risk and limited chances for a better Saints offense, I'm pessimistic on Kamara for 23 and sold him throughout last year everywhere I had him.

[dondickenson]

I understand not wanting to sell for less than a 1st but be ready for him to fall off the map quick. He looked pretty iffy and the offense was terrible for him in 2022. I think he is an acceptable flex RB/RB3 or 4 on a contending roster but if he is your RB2 or g forbid RB1 then you are simply not a legit contender.

Edit:

To follow up, Kamara has slowly degraded over his six year career. First two seasons he averaged 5.2ypc and had 31TDs. Next two seasons 4.9ypc and 27 TDs. Last two seasons 3.8ypc and 13 TDs. And those 13 TDs came on over 100 more touches in years 5-6 than he got in years 1-2. He has slowed down a lot last two seasons. Can hardly expect that trajectory to change at age 28 with his legal troubles looming and lack of coaching changes in NO.

[gogobradyarm]

He has been wildly inconsistent since Brees retired. His best days are behind him. Sold him for a 2nd and 3rd.

[Cameron Giles]

If you want to sell him, it's better to wait until the season. It's the offseason and RBs in their late 20s (he turns 28 soon) aren't going to be worth a ton, especially when this draft class arrives with all these young RBs.

KTC has him worth a 2023 2nd right now (2.04)

I think maybe you can squeeze a late 1st out of someone during the season, but overall his value is not going to get much higher from here on out.

[dondickenson]

I agree with both of the last two posts. After your rookie draft if you pick say Kendre Miller and Luke Muskgrave with your 2nd and 3rd I think you’ll be happy. But you could probably hold out, thread the needle, and sell for something like 50% more at the trade deadline in season.

[gogobradyarm]

If you want to sell him, it's better to wait until the season. It's the offseason and RBs in their late 20s (he turns 28 soon) aren't going to be worth a ton, especially when this draft class arrives with all these young RBs.

KTC has him worth a 2023 2nd right now (2.04)

I think maybe you can squeeze a late 1st out of someone during the season, but overall his value is not going to get much higher from here on out.

Typically i'd agree, but I don't see a guy in a questionable offense, that has been trending down as a fantasy producer, with a looming suspension, that will be 28, rising in value (barring Kamara ending up in a new offense with high scoring upside)

[tstafford]

The possible suspension is a big issue. It threatens to eliminate nearly half his relevance in what might be his last productive fantasy window. I think any 2nd round pick would be a good return.

[Cameron Giles]

If you want to sell him, it's better to wait until the season. It's the offseason and RBs in their late 20s (he turns 28 soon) aren't going to be worth a ton, especially when this draft class arrives with all these young RBs.

KTC has him worth a 2023 2nd right now (2.04)

I think maybe you can squeeze a late 1st out of someone during the season, but overall his value is not going to get much higher from here on out.

Typically i'd agree, but I don't see a guy in a questionable offense, that has been trending down as a fantasy producer, with a looming suspension, that will be 28, rising in value (barring Kamara ending up in a new offense with high scoring upside)

I could see it briefly during the season. The offseason is the worst time to sell veterans approaching 30, because everyone is in full ADP and draft mode and trying to get the best young assets, not necessarily building a team that can win this year.