Waiver Wire Depth

[Pullo Vision]

Scott Connor has a roster construction series on podcast (Destination Dynasty) where he goes though each position for his preferred roster build. All of it is incredible but the QB episode (November 28 - https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/t ... 0587712796) may contain information to help you formulate how you want to address your QB situation.

Thanks so much for the podcast pointer, and all the feedback by everyone so far. Recognized the Twitter handle but not the name. Have listened to the dynastytradesin5 for his SF tidbits, but this was a much more efficient use of time. Have listened to a number of the episodes of the DD pod now. He actually addresses several points I brought up and moishetreats responds to.

1- Since paying for two elite QBs is generally VERY expensive, do you prefer to have one tentpole elite QB1 and a lesser QB2 or two decent QB1s? Do you prefer one stud and wing it at SF, or you prefer a good 2nd QB, even if that costs you value at QB1? Something like Mahomes/Goff or Carr/Prescott.

2- What's the value of handcuffing your QB1? Is that a common practice?

3- What kind of value do QBs have who could, year to year, find themselves a backup one year or the starter (though perhaps placeholder) the next? I'm thinking guys like Jimmy G, Wentz, Keenum, Ryan, Brissett. Geno might qualify as well. Are they stashes you hold like RB handcuffs?

4- I seem to recall reading that QBs drafted in the 1st round by the NFL aren't a sure thing and after the 1st, the hit rate is terrible. Even if they get a sustained run of game starts (like Davis Mills), no guarantees after years 1 and 2. Is there an article that goes into that somewhere in the depths of the internet, or is that completely off?

I love these questions. Here are my thoughts.

1. Two QB1s. Definitely. Definitely definitely. Two elite-upside QB1s can carry you to a win and cover for other holes. And it's easier to find good productive players at other positions than at QB, especially on the waiver wire.

2. None, IMO. I'd only roster a backup QB if he has standalone value. So, yes on Huntley, Love, etc. No on, say, Purdy before yesterday.

3. Absolutely! I like D'Ernest Johnson as an RB stash for 2023. What's the realistic range of outcomes even if he does get a situation upgrade? Maaaaaybe an RB2, tops? Maybe....? But what if one of those QBs gets a starting gig? If nothing else, they'll command more in a trade.

4. You're on track with this. And I think it's pretty similar at WR, too.

Looks like I was unclear on my question at #1. Meant to present two options-
a- elite QB1 and low level SF option, like Mahomes and Goff
OR
b- 2 mid/low level QB1s, like Carr and Prescott

In a DD episode, he said he competed with a Stafford/Rodgers/Cousins trio last year but believes that kind of set up is more risky year to year. I'd suspect he'd prefer the tentpole, even if the 2nd QB is a QB2 type.

3- Great point! Think it's important to understand what QBs would walk into a secured starting job.
-----------------
To finally clean up my roster, I started to group QBs. I rarely do this kind of thing-
Tentpole- Hurts, Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow (5 QBs)
Potential tentpoles- LJax, TLaw, Fields (3)
High end SF platoon options- Kyler, Deshaun, Tua, Dak (4; would rather not roll with them as my #1 QB)
Secondary SF platoon options- Cousins, Carr, Goff, R Wilson (4)
Rookie contract QBs who could be starters this year and/or next- Pickett, Lance, Ridder, Mac Jones, Willis, Love, Z Wilson, Zappe, D Mills, Purdy, Corral, Howell, Trask (13)
Vets who could earn a long term starting job in 2023 FA- D Jones, Geno, Jimmy G, Minshew (4)
2022 starters with significant near term questions- Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Tannehill, M Ryan (5)
Vets who could earn a 2023 starting job as a bridge/placeholder- Brissett, Heinicke, Wentz, Winston, Dalton, T Huntley, Mayfield, Darnold, Bridgewater, Keenum, C McCoy, M White (12)
Not rosterable- Mariota, Trubisky, Flacco, Rush, Skylar, PJ Walker, Rudolph, Ehlinger, Lock, K Allen, Perkins, Wolford, Rypien, Driskel (14)

In my RB heavy leagues, I try to have one elite back, a group of secondary options who can step in as the #2, and a pipeline of backs like handcuffs/backups/young guys. I've been looking at adopting that process for SF. Ideally, it'd be great to have 2 QBs from the "tentpole" groups, even if one is from the "potential" group. But, the cost of getting two studs makes that unlikely. Using this idea of a QB pipeline, I'm thinking it's more reasonable to target 1 tentpole, 2 SF platoon, 2 from the rookie contract group, and 1 from the 3 groups that start with D Jones and end with M White. So, for example, we're talking a QB room of Herbert, Dak, Carr, Pickett, D Mills, and Brissett. Three certain starters, some youth to groom, and a 6th spot to rotate for potential flip value.

Does this QB pipeline idea sound like a good plan? A pipeline of, say, 5-6 QBs would require a fair number of roster spots and may be stress the roster limit. Thoughts on the groupings?

While I was putting that grouping list together, the DD pod dropped an episode Monday. He focused on the bottom end of the rosterable QBs. He believed McCoy was a cut (I could see him starting for Kyler next year) and that Trubisky, Flacco and Mariota were keeps (I see them as 2023 backups with limited starting opportunity). I don't believe he included rookies like Trask, and I didn't want to either, lol.

All told, before accounting for 2023 rookies, he had 48 QBs as rosterable and I have 50. That's not far off from 4 in a 14 teamer.

Posters who provided how many QBs are rostered in their leagues-
6.166 per team (74 rostered in a 12 team SF league)
4.750 per team (57/12)
4.857 per team (68/14)
4.857 (68 QBs in a 14x40 league, with deep IDP starting reqs and a PS)

[moishetreats]

Looks like I was unclear on my question at #1. Meant to present two options-
a- elite QB1 and low level SF option, like Mahomes and Goff
OR
b- 2 mid/low level QB1s, like Carr and Prescott

IMO, Mahomes > Carr + Prescott. You'll be able to scrape together players that can get you mid-QB numbers if need be, but you can't replace production from an elite QB1.

To finally clean up my roster, I started to group QBs. I rarely do this kind of thing-
Tentpole- Hurts, Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow (5 QBs)
Potential tentpoles- LJax, TLaw, Fields (3)
High end SF platoon options- Kyler, Deshaun, Tua, Dak (4; would rather not roll with them as my #1 QB)
Secondary SF platoon options- Cousins, Carr, Goff, R Wilson (4)
Rookie contract QBs who could be starters this year and/or next- Pickett, Lance, Ridder, Mac Jones, Willis, Love, Z Wilson, Zappe, D Mills, Purdy, Corral, Howell, Trask (13)
Vets who could earn a long term starting job in 2023 FA- D Jones, Geno, Jimmy G, Minshew (4)
2022 starters with significant near term questions- Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Tannehill, M Ryan (5)
Vets who could earn a 2023 starting job as a bridge/placeholder- Brissett, Heinicke, Wentz, Winston, Dalton, T Huntley, Mayfield, Darnold, Bridgewater, Keenum, C McCoy, M White (12)
Not rosterable- Mariota, Trubisky, Flacco, Rush, Skylar, PJ Walker, Rudolph, Ehlinger, Lock, K Allen, Perkins, Wolford, Rypien, Driskel (14)

Love the grouping! I suppose I could quibble with one here or there, but I'm in a pretty similar camp as you.

In my RB heavy leagues, I try to have one elite back, a group of secondary options who can step in as the #2, and a pipeline of backs like handcuffs/backups/young guys. I've been looking at adopting that process for SF. Ideally, it'd be great to have 2 QBs from the "tentpole" groups, even if one is from the "potential" group. But, the cost of getting two studs makes that unlikely. Using this idea of a QB pipeline, I'm thinking it's more reasonable to target 1 tentpole, 2 SF platoon, 2 from the rookie contract group, and 1 from the 3 groups that start with D Jones and end with M White. So, for example, we're talking a QB room of Herbert, Dak, Carr, Pickett, D Mills, and Brissett. Three certain starters, some youth to groom, and a 6th spot to rotate for potential flip value.

Does this QB pipeline idea sound like a good plan? A pipeline of, say, 5-6 QBs would require a fair number of roster spots and may be stress the roster limit. Thoughts on the groupings?

Yes... And...

Yes, this sounds like a GREAT plan.
And I wouldn't lock myself into it.

It's a slightly broader approach for me. When I'm in a win-now mode, I like having my starters secure and at least two players (one at TE in a 1TE league) at each position that I am comfortable starting every week if needed. That usually leaves about 3-5 bench spots available, and I'm almost always going after guys with the most upside regardless of position. In a league like yours, that might be a lot of QBs (in my league in Sig 1, at different times, I've had 10QBs rostered or, once, 10 TEs rostered!!).

In addition, your plan might deviate from time to time. Maybe you get a great offer for your QB5 -- take it! Maybe you have injuries elsewhere and need the roster spots. Fine!

So, I'd sign off on your QB plan. I also wouldn't lock it in and the be-all, end-all.

Bottom line: I think you're in great shape with your thought process!

[Pullo Vision]

To finally clean up my roster, I started to group QBs. I rarely do this kind of thing-
Tentpole- Hurts, Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow (5 QBs)
Potential tentpoles- LJax, TLaw, Fields (3)
High end SF platoon options- Kyler, Deshaun, Tua, Dak (4; would rather not roll with them as my #1 QB)
Secondary SF platoon options- Cousins, Carr, Goff, R Wilson (4)
Rookie contract QBs who could be starters this year and/or next- Pickett, Lance, Ridder, Mac Jones, Willis, Love, Z Wilson, Zappe, D Mills, Purdy, Corral, Howell, Trask (13)
Vets who could earn a long term starting job in 2023 FA- D Jones, Geno, Jimmy G, Minshew (4)
2022 starters with significant near term questions- Rodgers, Stafford, Brady, Tannehill, M Ryan (5)
Vets who could earn a 2023 starting job as a bridge/placeholder- Brissett, Heinicke, Wentz, Winston, Dalton, T Huntley, Mayfield, Darnold, Bridgewater, Keenum, C McCoy, M White (12)
Not rosterable- Mariota, Trubisky, Flacco, Rush, Skylar, PJ Walker, Rudolph, Ehlinger, Lock, K Allen, Perkins, Wolford, Rypien, Driskel (14)

Love the grouping! I suppose I could quibble with one here or there, but I'm in a pretty similar camp as you.

I appreciate the feedback! Always open to hearing quibbles. Victory comes along the edges, and if there's a minor way these can be refined, I'm all ears. I had the most difficulty with placing Goff and Minshew- could see putting Goff in the "could earn long term role" group, and Minshew in the bridge group. Could see an argument for a different grouping for LJax or Tua. I also referred to how I tier the groups, but I coulda been more clear-
Tentpoles and potential tentpoles
---break
High and secondary SF platoon
---break
Rookie contracts
---break
Vets with questions, could earn long term role, or could earn bridge role

What's interesting about the groupings is how narrow the top is. There are only 5 locked in cornerstone QBs, and Hurts might be aggressive. Even if you lump the potential ones in as QB1s, that leaves 8 QBs. Besides putting that Olave Herbert deal into context (actually beginning to like it now lol), it could force teams in a 12 to 16 team league to start guys I wouldn't want to rely on as a #1, like Prescott.

That rookie contract group is where we can groom a guy or three to get to at least those SF platoon groups. A bunch of young options, but guys like Mills, Willis and Trask look like low odds of hitting, imo.

In my RB heavy leagues, I try to have one elite back, a group of secondary options who can step in as the #2, and a pipeline of backs like handcuffs/backups/young guys. I've been looking at adopting that process for SF. Ideally, it'd be great to have 2 QBs from the "tentpole" groups, even if one is from the "potential" group. But, the cost of getting two studs makes that unlikely. Using this idea of a QB pipeline, I'm thinking it's more reasonable to target 1 tentpole, 2 SF platoon, 2 from the rookie contract group, and 1 from the 3 groups that start with D Jones and end with M White. So, for example, we're talking a QB room of Herbert, Dak, Carr, Pickett, D Mills, and Brissett. Three certain starters, some youth to groom, and a 6th spot to rotate for potential flip value.

Does this QB pipeline idea sound like a good plan? A pipeline of, say, 5-6 QBs would require a fair number of roster spots and may be stress the roster limit. Thoughts on the groupings?

Yes... And...

Yes, this sounds like a GREAT plan.
And I wouldn't lock myself into it.

It's a slightly broader approach for me. When I'm in a win-now mode, I like having my starters secure and at least two players (one at TE in a 1TE league) at each position that I am comfortable starting every week if needed. That usually leaves about 3-5 bench spots available, and I'm almost always going after guys with the most upside regardless of position. In a league like yours, that might be a lot of QBs (in my league in Sig 1, at different times, I've had 10QBs rostered or, once, 10 TEs rostered!!).

In addition, your plan might deviate from time to time. Maybe you get a great offer for your QB5 -- take it! Maybe you have injuries elsewhere and need the roster spots. Fine!

So, I'd sign off on your QB plan. I also wouldn't lock it in and the be-all, end-all.

Bottom line: I think you're in great shape with your thought process!

Definitely agree that being flexible is important, and this would be a framework. If I had that Herbert/Dak/Carr/Pickett group as an example and someone came hard after Pickett, I'd definitely listen.

Appreciate all the feedback, moishe! Good to know this looks good from a SF pro angle.

[moishetreats]

I'm with you at how shockingly narrow the top is. The past few years were billed as a new golden era in NFL QBs -- incredible young talent coming in every year. That clearly hasn't materialized.

And you're welcome. Expert? I don't know about that. I'm happy to help, though!

Happy New Year!

[Pullo Vision]

I'm with you at how shockingly narrow the top is. The past few years were billed as a new golden era in NFL QBs -- incredible young talent coming in every year. That clearly hasn't materialized.

And you're welcome. Expert? I don't know about that. I'm happy to help, though!

Happy New Year!

I haven't been playing SF for a decade or more so don't have the knowledge bank, but it'd be curious if the narrow top is a blip or more of a multi year thing. Like RB from a few years ago, we seem to have fallen into a gap in terms of elite young QBs. Not certain the rookie contract QBs I mentioned can step in as anything higher than QB2 platoon options- Pickett, Lance, Ridder, Mac Jones, Willis, Love, Z Wilson, Zappe, D Mills, Purdy, Corral, Howell, Trask. Pickett, Jones, Love, Zappe and Purdy (in no particular order) seem the most likely to hit.

Happy New Year's to you, too!

[moishetreats]

I haven't been playing SF for a decade or more so don't have the knowledge bank, but it'd be curious if the narrow top is a blip or more of a multi year thing.

Yes?

I think we see fluctuations at all positions at all times. For instance, for the previous few years, there would be about 25-30 WRs who could put up back-end WR1 numbers, diminishing the value of the elite top tier. This year, however, we are seeing a much different picture: there is a tier of about 7 (give or take, depending on scoring system, etc.) difference-making WRs and then a HUGE drop to that second tier. It would be hard to win a league in 2022 without one (or potentially two) of those seven WRs. So there are constant fluctuations at every position.

It's no different at QB. We have just passed out of period in which there were a LOT of QBs who were good-to-great second QBs in an SF league. Not unlike WRs from a couple of years ago. I still prefer building around two studs, but you could find guys -- Staffords, Ryans, Wilsons -- just outside the top tier who would be close enough to be competitive and at a much greater value. And there was enough depth to stock your team. I don't think that's the case anymore. There are maybe around 14 QBs that I'd be excited about in an SF/2QB dynasty format. That is shockingly low compared to a handful of years ago. Now let's say that three incoming rookie QBs hit (always optimistic). That means only *half* the fantasy teams have a second viable QB!

TL;DR -- the top at any position is always narrow. It's the rest of the mountain that fluctuates, and the mountain is skinny and short now. That's why I tend to invest in the young, elite QBs -- players for whom it's reasonable to think they'll be in that narrow top (or at least close to it) for a long time. I don't have to worry about (or pay for) the fluctuations below the peak.

[Pullo Vision]

It's no different at QB. We have just passed out of period in which there were a LOT of QBs who were good-to-great second QBs in an SF league. Not unlike WRs from a couple of years ago. I still prefer building around two studs, but you could find guys -- Staffords, Ryans, Wilsons -- just outside the top tier who would be close enough to be competitive and at a much greater value. And there was enough depth to stock your team. I don't think that's the case anymore. There are maybe around 14 QBs that I'd be excited about in an SF/2QB dynasty format. That is shockingly low compared to a handful of years ago. Now let's say that three incoming rookie QBs hit (always optimistic). That means only *half* the fantasy teams have a second viable QB!

That puts some of these SF strategy articles into context. People talking about "it's important to have 2 studs QBs, it'll give you a massive leg up" and I look around the landscape and am like "do you not realize how few top tier QBs there are?!"

Curious who are those 14 QBs you'd be excited about.

[moishetreats]

That puts some of these SF strategy articles into context. People talking about "it's important to have 2 studs QBs, it'll give you a massive leg up" and I look around the landscape and am like "do you not realize how few top tier QBs there are?!"

Curious who are those 14 QBs you'd be excited about.

I look at my Dynasty team (#1 in sig), and that's what worries me most. (It's a 2QB best-ball league.) I paid big in-season for Herbert (what became pick 1.03, Olave, Javonte Williams, Zach Wilson [he was still starting then] for Herbert and J Meyers). And I think the only reason I got that was because Herbert was having a down year. I paid $1.50 for a $1.00 player (plus Meyers). And I don't regret it one bit. Short that 2nd QB that I'm excited about (maybe R Wilson sneaks back in?), I'm particularly nervous about this team. All the other QBs are good enough to get me something. But the gap between that something and what a top QB can put up is very, very big.

And, if those QBs are young, then you don't have to worry for a loooooong time. You can both compete with or rebuild with them (e.g., Herbert). Plus, if you get desperate, you can trade him. Bottom line: this is the scariest time in SF/2QB leagues that it has been in a long time.

The QBs I'd be excited about (not a ranking but ballpark close):

Mahomes
Allen
Herbert
Burrow
Lawrence
Fields
Hurts
Jackson
Watson
Prescott (that's 10 so far)
Pickett

Guys I'd be happy to have but they have some real questions:
Tua
Murray
D Jones
Cousins
R Wilson
Stafford (that's 7 more -- I figure everyone will have 2-4 from this list they like; I go back-and-forth on these guys)

We can quibble -- one guy should be in the above group or the lower group, or one guy should be in or should be out. In any case, at best, you're at, what, 18 QBs? Doesn't even go around in a 10-team league. Maybe a couple of rookie QBs jump in, and assuredly some guys not listed will surprise (like Geno this year). But some of the guys listed above will disappoint (like R Wilson this year). So it's a tough go getting two top guys let alone three -- which is the number I aim for.

And if you want two young studs, I'm down to five for sure and another 4 (up through Watson) that I am comfortable enough betting on. It's just ugly.

[zaner75]

The issue with the top end of QBs is not the price to acquire but the availability to do so. They are typically not available, so if one is, you pay the cost.
Getting one at a bargain price is exclusively league dependent, so seeing Allen traded for DJ Moore, 1.02, 1.08, 2.01 (one recent trade posted in the Dynasty Advice forum) is the proverbial needle in the haystack.
There's a thread in the Dynasty Discussion forum about top 10 QBs. Most everyone has the same names through 11. The margins where the Geno, D Jones, Goff types outperform expectations are where managers can really help their dynasty teams. Almost like the 'Hero RB' strategy, with the narrow top, teams can try to employ a 'Hero QB' strategy and have 2-4 other QBs to fill the QB2 spot.

[Pullo Vision]

That puts some of these SF strategy articles into context. People talking about "it's important to have 2 studs QBs, it'll give you a massive leg up" and I look around the landscape and am like "do you not realize how few top tier QBs there are?!"

Curious who are those 14 QBs you'd be excited about.

I look at my Dynasty team (#1 in sig), and that's what worries me most. (It's a 2QB best-ball league.) I paid big in-season for Herbert (what became pick 1.03, Olave, Javonte Williams, Zach Wilson [he was still starting then] for Herbert and J Meyers). And I think the only reason I got that was because Herbert was having a down year. I paid $1.50 for a $1.00 player (plus Meyers). And I don't regret it one bit. Short that 2nd QB that I'm excited about (maybe R Wilson sneaks back in?), I'm particularly nervous about this team. All the other QBs are good enough to get me something. But the gap between that something and what a top QB can put up is very, very big.

And, if those QBs are young, then you don't have to worry for a loooooong time. You can both compete with or rebuild with them (e.g., Herbert). Plus, if you get desperate, you can trade him. Bottom line: this is the scariest time in SF/2QB leagues that it has been in a long time.

The QBs I'd be excited about (not a ranking but ballpark close):

Mahomes
Allen
Herbert
Burrow
Lawrence
Fields
Hurts
Jackson
Watson
Prescott (that's 10 so far)
Pickett

Guys I'd be happy to have but they have some real questions:
Tua
Murray
D Jones
Cousins
R Wilson
Stafford (that's 7 more -- I figure everyone will have 2-4 from this list they like; I go back-and-forth on these guys)

We can quibble -- one guy should be in the above group or the lower group, or one guy should be in or should be out. In any case, at best, you're at, what, 18 QBs? Doesn't even go around in a 10-team league. Maybe a couple of rookie QBs jump in, and assuredly some guys not listed will surprise (like Geno this year). But some of the guys listed above will disappoint (like R Wilson this year). So it's a tough go getting two top guys let alone three -- which is the number I aim for.

And if you want two young studs, I'm down to five for sure and another 4 (up through Watson) that I am comfortable enough betting on. It's just ugly.

I've been known to throw down value and get some massive trades done, but I wouldn't have liked that Herbert trade a few months ago. Our discussion here has really warmed me to it, especially given the roster. A Rodgers/RWildon/Geno trio has loads of questions, it's easy to see why you'd pay up for him. When you get a chance to get a tentpole/cornerstone QB, you chase it down. I'm coming down harder and harder to that conclusion.

With how narrow it is at the top, and the bazillion questions with vets, the rookies are more than fliers. We need them to pan out so we have solid depth, and hopefully some them grow to be more than that. I can see reasons to be optimistic for Pickett when compared to other rookie contract QBs, but I'm curious why you're high enough on him to put him in your group of 14.

[Pullo Vision]

The issue with the top end of QBs is not the price to acquire but the availability to do so. They are typically not available, so if one is, you pay the cost.
Getting one at a bargain price is exclusively league dependent, so seeing Allen traded for DJ Moore, 1.02, 1.08, 2.01 (one recent trade posted in the Dynasty Advice forum) is the proverbial needle in the haystack.
There's a thread in the Dynasty Discussion forum about top 10 QBs. Most everyone has the same names through 11. The margins where the Geno, D Jones, Goff types outperform expectations are where managers can really help their dynasty teams. Almost like the 'Hero RB' strategy, with the narrow top, teams can try to employ a 'Hero QB' strategy and have 2-4 other QBs to fill the QB2 spot.

Yep, have been reading the thread. There are various vets like Geno/Stafford that can help the next few years, but my focus is the rookies. If guys like Ridder, Mac Jones, Purdy, and Pickett can get to the Prescott/Tua area of production, they'll provide better roster value.

Totally with you on the Hero QB angle. To what moishe said before IIRC, go after the studs when one becomes available. It's not so much about what the price is but if one becomes available. Dynastytradesin5 recently had a recently had a vid on the cost of the top tier ones. One of the things debated was how many first it would take for Josh Allen, and if 4 would get it done.

[moishetreats]

I've been known to throw down value and get some massive trades done, but I wouldn't have liked that Herbert trade a few months ago. Our discussion here has really warmed me to it, especially given the roster. A Rodgers/RWildon/Geno trio has loads of questions, it's easy to see why you'd pay up for him. When you get a chance to get a tentpole/cornerstone QB, you chase it down. I'm coming down harder and harder to that conclusion.

With how narrow it is at the top, and the bazillion questions with vets, the rookies are more than fliers. We need them to pan out so we have solid depth, and hopefully some them grow to be more than that. I can see reasons to be optimistic for Pickett when compared to other rookie contract QBs, but I'm curious why you're high enough on him to put him in your group of 14.

For what it's worth, I *still* don't like the Herbert trade. I overpaid -- by a lot. And I don't regret it, as I wrote above.

As for Pickett, it's solely an SF/2QB valuation. I have little interest in him in a 1QB league since I don't think he'll ever realistically be a top-10, top-12 QB. But I could see him being a top-18, top-20 QB for a long time. He flashed enough to my eyes this year to make me optimistic he'll be an NFL starter for a long time. And, if I have to be on any QB getting a long-term opportunity to develop, I want them in Pittsburgh. Put it together, and he's a guy I would love as my QB3 (or QB2 if I'm stacked elsewhere).

That he's in my top-14 is far more an indictment of the NFL QB landscape. He's a player I want at around 18-24. I just can't find enough other QBs to put ahead of him. And that's, I think, my big takeaway from this thread: the QB room for SF/2QB leagues is about as bare as I can recall it in my 13 years playing SF/2QB leagues.

[Pullo Vision]

As for Pickett, it's solely an SF/2QB valuation. I have little interest in him in a 1QB league since I don't think he'll ever realistically be a top-10, top-12 QB. But I could see him being a top-18, top-20 QB for a long time. He flashed enough to my eyes this year to make me optimistic he'll be an NFL starter for a long time. And, if I have to be on any QB getting a long-term opportunity to develop, I want them in Pittsburgh. Put it together, and he's a guy I would love as my QB3 (or QB2 if I'm stacked elsewhere).

That he's in my top-14 is far more an indictment of the NFL QB landscape. He's a player I want at around 18-24. I just can't find enough other QBs to put ahead of him. And that's, I think, my big takeaway from this thread: the QB room for SF/2QB leagues is about as bare as I can recall it in my 13 years playing SF/2QB leagues.

Totally get the floor play angle for Pickett. Among the rookie contract QBs,he's the strongest bet to be a consistent starter. He does have some scrambling ability, raising his any game floor.

Among this group, what QBs do you think have the greatest odds to start every game for their team for the next 2 years?- Pickett, Lance, Ridder, Mac Jones, Willis, Love, Z Wilson, Zappe, D Mills, Purdy, Corral, Howell, Trask. I think the ones with the best chances, in order- Pickett, Purdy, MJones, Love, Howell. I'm not comfortable predicting any of the others starting all of 2024, and maybe not 23.

[moishetreats]

Among this group, what QBs do you think have the greatest odds to start every game for their team for the next 2 years?- Pickett, Lance, Ridder, Mac Jones, Willis, Love, Z Wilson, Zappe, D Mills, Purdy, Corral, Howell, Trask. I think the ones with the best chances, in order- Pickett, Purdy, MJones, Love, Howell. I'm not comfortable predicting any of the others starting all of 2024, and maybe not 23.

Ugly list!


Here's my take:

Tier 1: I believe in them
Pickett
Love (if Rodgers is traded or retires; otherwise, drop him to tier 2.5)

Tier 2: if they play well, they keep the job
Ridder
Mac Jones
Purdy (?; could also depend on how he plays the rest of the post-season)

Tier 2.5: Variables
Love (it's a waiting and guessing game where and when he plays, but he's a Tier 2 player for me when he gets his opportunity)

Tier 3: I have real doubts, but they have a chance (I'm happy to trade them)
Purdy (if not in Tier 1)
Lance
Howell

Tier 4: I'm not giving up yet but I have no real optimism at all
Corral
Willis
Zappe

Tier 5: Roster cloggers
Z Wilson
Trask
Mills

[Pullo Vision]

Among this group, what QBs do you think have the greatest odds to start every game for their team for the next 2 years?- Pickett, Lance, Ridder, Mac Jones, Willis, Love, Z Wilson, Zappe, D Mills, Purdy, Corral, Howell, Trask. I think the ones with the best chances, in order- Pickett, Purdy, MJones, Love, Howell. I'm not comfortable predicting any of the others starting all of 2024, and maybe not 23.

Ugly list!


Here's my take:

Tier 1: I believe in them
Pickett
Love (if Rodgers is traded or retires; otherwise, drop him to tier 2.5)

Tier 2: if they play well, they keep the job
Ridder
Mac Jones
Purdy (?; could also depend on how he plays the rest of the post-season)

Tier 2.5: Variables
Love (it's a waiting and guessing game where and when he plays, but he's a Tier 2 player for me when he gets his opportunity)

Tier 3: I have real doubts, but they have a chance (I'm happy to trade them)
Purdy (if not in Tier 1)
Lance
Howell

Tier 4: I'm not giving up yet but I have no real optimism at all
Corral
Willis
Zappe

Tier 5: Roster cloggers
Z Wilson
Trask
Mills

Lol ugly indeed, but with all these older QBs and a narrow top, we'll need some of them to pan out to fill QB2 and depth. Alot of them have taken value hits recently, so there could be quite alot of gold in them thar hills.

Your organization here provides for more nuance. In that scheme, Pickett and Jones are my tier 1. I believe in their floor, even if I don't see a crazy high ceiling.

In the "they can be the starter the next two years if they play well" group, I'd put Purdy, Love and Ridder. Purdy may have already played well enough to be in tier 1, and I think either Rodgers or Love will be on a new team next season. Ridder may not have played enough to prove himself worthy of a starting role in 2023, nevermind 24. So, he looks more dependent on practice field stuff and interactions with the coaching staff, which are hard to unearth, nevermind quantify.

No quibbles on tiers 3 and 4, with the obvious caveat of Purdy. Tier 5 is where I'm intrigued. Do you think Wilson and Mills are finished as NFL players and can't see their value resuscitated? I have problems with Wilson from a mental makeup perspective, but how do you separate Mills' struggles through 2 years from the poor OC/scheme/weapons support he's had to date? I've seen suggestions that, if Houston takes QB at 1.2, they might trade Mills. If he's acquired as a depth play to potentially be groomed (a la Mayfield to LAR), he could see a value bump. Imagine him going to Seattle or Detroit for a 6th.