Jameson Williams Thread

[Anteaters]

I'd pay a third. Hes looking like a bust, but so will every third rounder next year.

Except 2024 third round picks have not played in the NFL yet and maybe three out of twelve (25%) will make an impact in your league. In 2023 alone, the following players were likely 3rd round (or lower) picks in most dynasty leagues with at least 12 teams: Puka, Hyatt, Dell, Schoonmaker, CRodriguez, MichaelWilson and others. At this point I'd rather have them instead of Jamo.

I feel very confident saying there is much less than a 25% chance Jamo is anything more than fantasy waste.

I understand that premise, but the hit rate(starting level asset) is ~9% historically for rookie 3rds and later. On top of that, my leagues draft shortly after the NFL draft, so there's no camp info to adjust on. I'd say Jamo has slightly less chance to hit than that overall, but with his profile I'd take that shot at that price.

I wouldn't fault someone for taking the third though. Maybe those who are much better drafters than I, and foresaw Puka being a thing before the camp hype and everyone else caught up.

The beauty of it is you don't have to foresee a 3rd round player's future greatness. What you're doing is deciding the 9% chance of any 3rd rounder is a better bet than Jamo. You're buying a chance at getting a productive player, not any specific player.

The only thing is, you have to decide Jamo is a bust and will never hit. It's hard to let go of high hopes. Those who still believe in Jamo even a little will say, "But, he's Jamo da**it!" and decide to hold.

I won't argue with anyone who wants to hold. We all have our players we choose to hold till the bitter end. But for me, I'm almost all the way out on Jamo. I wouldn't drop him, but I might take a 3rd for him if I had him.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

There is no way to prove anything but Jamo still has a better than +9% chance. It’s not even just 9%. It’s anything that promotes his value. He has so much capital and speed that if he went 6/120/2 tds he would vault back up to early 2nd. Someone like Tillman does that and people will still be waiting to see before paying an early 2nd, imo. There is so much draft capital invested in Jamo he will get another shot with another team, maybe he doesn’t click with Goff or coaches and goes somewhere else and does.

Selling for a 3rd is still very premature. He has a 9%- 25% chance to be Hyatt, Dell or Schoonmaker and a 1% chance to be Davante Adams. I’ll take the 1%.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

He will also hold that 3rd value until he stops getting signed to some team. He switches teams and I guarantee you he bumps back up to a third

Meaning you can hold while waiting to see how it turns out and still recoup the third down the road.

[Valhalla]

He will also hold that 3rd value until he stops getting signed to some team. He switches teams and I guarantee you he bumps back up to a third

Meaning you can hold while waiting to see how it turns out and still recoup the third down the road.

Agreed with this.
The one consideration is if you are in need of additional roster space, want to bring someone up off the practice squad or someone coming back from IR or something. I’d take Jameson over a third, but a third takes up no roster space, and is FAR easier to package with ANY trade partner.

[mild]

The Lions acquiring another outside WR at the trade deadline is nothing to worry about, right guys...?

It's just Donovan Peoples Jones. He's not a serious threat to Jameson's playing time.

No sir. No threat at all.

[Jigga94]

Maybe he is just worth a 3rd lol

[FantasyFreak]

The Lions acquiring another outside WR at the trade deadline is nothing to worry about, right guys...?

It's just Donovan Peoples Jones. He's not a serious threat to Jameson's playing time.

No sir. No threat at all.

I think Jamo will get dealt at some point, and some people will co-relate it so Swift. All I can say is, if this happens, take the out, and move him.

[Shoreline Steamers]

DPJ hoping to jump Williams and/or Reynolds (who's cooled off lately). We'll see if it works out. He gets the BYE week with his new team to get acclimated. Will be interesting to see what his usage is in Week 10 and how, or if, his presence affects the other WR's.

Could also be insurance for someone getting banged-up. The price for DPJ was certainly cheap. Maybe he won't have much of an impact after all.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Maybe he is just worth a 3rd lol

lol

[Lumps]

Could be a time to buy low on Williams if you liked him before. Detroit has playoff aspirations. DPJ could be insurance all around of their WR room. If Amon-Ra went down they are screwed. DPJ doesn’t necessarily solve it. But could be seen as insurance for everyone.

Edit: I was never super in on him and didn’t do too much research as I wasn’t ever in a position to get him plus the ACL. Just saying if you believed before…

[mild]

If Amon-Ra went down they are screwed.

I legit don't think they are anymore. Yes to this idea a year ago.

But this year, if ARSB misses, they just redirect the short-range target share to LaPorta and Gibbs.

Not as great, for sure, but not even close to "screwed" imo.

[FantasyFreak]

Could be a time to buy low on Williams if you liked him before. Detroit has playoff aspirations. DPJ could be insurance all around of their WR room. If Amon-Ra went down they are screwed. DPJ doesn’t necessarily solve it. But could be seen as insurance for everyone.

Edit: I was never super in on him and didn’t do too much research as I wasn’t ever in a position to get him plus the ACL. Just saying if you believed before…

I'm going to play the cliché, but Jamo is a bestball only player for me, at this point. There's no way I want to plug him into a lineup, and I don't see that ever being a confident play.

[FantasyFreak]

If Amon-Ra went down they are screwed.

I legit don't think they are anymore. Yes to this idea a year ago.

But this year, if ARSB misses, they just redirect the short-range target share to LaPorta and Gibbs.

Not as great, for sure, but not even close to "screwed" imo.

Was legit going to say the same thing, but your post came up a second before mine. Not to diminish how good ARSB is, just that they have the players and OC to manage that injury, in their offense, currently.

[Lumps]

If Amon-Ra went down they are screwed.

I legit don't think they are anymore. Yes to this idea a year ago.

But this year, if ARSB misses, they just redirect the short-range target share to LaPorta and Gibbs.

Not as great, for sure, but not even close to "screwed" imo.

I’m talking about their playoff chances/Super Bowl chances. Maybe “screwed” is too strong of a word, but I think ARSB is criminally undervalued. What was the stat from last night….something like the most receiving yards in history for the first 40 games or something? He is vital to their chances.

They still have a strong run game, defense, LaPorta and Gibbs as you mentioned…but I have yet to see them have Gibbs run ARSB routes even though he can. Maybe that’s coming later this year? I don’t know. From what I’ve seen them do with Gibbs doesn’t make me confident they could fill a ARSB hole.

Back to Williams. Has anyone gone to try to buy low?

[Anteaters]

Back to Williams. Has anyone gone to try to buy low?

Buying Jamo low (compared to the production he will deliver) would be buying him for a 5th.