Rookie WR Production 2022

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Pickens is going to be real interesting to follow. I think he remains a great buy. The Steelers offense was a circus and Canada really didn't use him or Diontae Johnson to their strengths.

FFT though on Pickens:

- He finished with a Top-20 (#17) overall WR score on 538. Largely because he has a ridiculous 99 overall catch score, which is insane when you remember he finished with a Top-15 contested catch rate this season. Some of that is him and some of that is the usage.

But, rookies who've finished with a Top 20 Overall Score on 538 since tracking:

Chris Godwin (2017)
D.J. Moore (2018)
Calvin Ridley (2018)
Terry McLaurin (2019)
A.J. Brown (2019)
D.K. Metcalf (2019)
Diontae Johnson (2019)
Preston Williams (2019)
Marquise Brown (2019)
Chase Claypool (2020)
Justin Jefferson (2020)
Ja'Marr Chase (2021)
Chris Olave (2022)
Garrett Wilson (2022)
George Pickens (2022)

Pretty strong list.

I think the route running will get better. 48 is slightly below average from what it looks like.

Might be interesting to dig into the numbers as bit more, instead of just “Top XX”. Also what is more important, open score, catch score, overall, etc. But yeah, sounds promising.

[Cameron Giles]

Might be interesting to dig into the numbers as bit more, instead of just “Top XX”. Also what is more important, open score, catch score, overall, etc. But yeah, sounds promising.

"For wide receivers and tight ends, Open Score accounts for roughly half of the overall score, while Catch Score accounts for a little over a quarter and YAC Score accounts for the remainder. We think these weights make logical sense, in that a receiver has to get open to have the chance to make a catch. He then has to catch the ball to gain additional yards. Without success in the early part of the sequence, he wouldn't have many opportunities through the remainder of the process."

Rookies With Top-20 Open Scores:

2022: Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson
2021: N/A (Highest Mark: Elijah Moore)
2020: Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool
2019: Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown, Preston Williams
2018: Calvin Ridley
2017: N/A (Highest Mark: Chris Godwin)

Dwindles it down more, but still a solid indicator overall.

[j4pac]

Pickens is going to be real interesting to follow. I think he remains a great buy. The Steelers offense was a circus and Canada really didn't use him or Diontae Johnson to their strengths.

FFT though on Pickens:

- He finished with a Top-20 (#17) overall WR score on 538. Largely because he has a ridiculous 99 overall catch score, which is insane when you remember he finished with a Top-15 contested catch rate this season. Some of that is him and some of that is the usage.

But, rookies who've finished with a Top 20 Overall Score on 538 since tracking:

Chris Godwin (2017)
D.J. Moore (2018)
Calvin Ridley (2018)
Terry McLaurin (2019)
A.J. Brown (2019)
D.K. Metcalf (2019)
Diontae Johnson (2019)
Preston Williams (2019)
Marquise Brown (2019)
Chase Claypool (2020)
Justin Jefferson (2020)
Ja'Marr Chase (2021)
Chris Olave (2022)
Garrett Wilson (2022)
George Pickens (2022)

Pretty strong list.

I think the route running will get better. 48 is slightly below average from what it looks like.

Maybe…but he never won with route running he has always won with contested catches. I don’t think that’s as sustainable as the guys who produce with route running…and certainly isn’t good from an injury outlook. I’d still definitely put him behind Wilson, Olave, and Williams…but after that I think he’s as good as any.

[Cameron Giles]

Maybe…but he never won with route running he has always won with contested catches. I don’t think that’s as sustainable as the guys who produce with route running…and certainly isn’t good from an injury outlook. I’d still definitely put him behind Wilson, Olave, and Williams…but after that I think he’s as good as any.

This is true, but he was also really good at beating press in college. At best, I think he's a competent route runner and separator with room to get better. I think the big issue is how they were using him most of the season. He was really just running clear outs. I think they could've played to his strengths more in the intermediate game. He has upside as a possession receiver.

[ericanadian]

One guy I’m looking forward to seeing next year who’s not getting a huge amount of press is John Metchie. High draft pick with what should be a rookie QB (could be his college QB) and not a lot of competition on the depth chart. They’re expecting him back as early as offseason workouts which, with a new offense coming in, will put him on the same starting point as everyone else.

[j4pac]

I’m not a big believer. Just didn’t seem that athletic, and the hype outlived the actual ability.

[Jigga94]

One guy I’m looking forward to seeing next year who’s not getting a huge amount of press is John Metchie. High draft pick with what should be a rookie QB (could be his college QB) and not a lot of competition on the depth chart. They’re expecting him back as early as offseason workouts which, with a new offense coming in, will put him on the same starting point as everyone else.

I like this call. Overall, I wasn't a big fan of Metchie as a prospect, compared to his 2nd round price. But now it seems like he's been forgotten and you may be able to get him for a 3rd. In which case, I'm in

[dynastyninja]

One guy I’m looking forward to seeing next year who’s not getting a huge amount of press is John Metchie. High draft pick with what should be a rookie QB (could be his college QB) and not a lot of competition on the depth chart. They’re expecting him back as early as offseason workouts which, with a new offense coming in, will put him on the same starting point as everyone else.

I'm extremely high on Metchie and agree completely. I have really high hopes for him, especially if the Texans are able to somehow land Young.

[j4pac]

One guy I’m looking forward to seeing next year who’s not getting a huge amount of press is John Metchie. High draft pick with what should be a rookie QB (could be his college QB) and not a lot of competition on the depth chart. They’re expecting him back as early as offseason workouts which, with a new offense coming in, will put him on the same starting point as everyone else.

I'm extremely high on Metchie and agree completely. I have really high hopes for him, especially if the Texans are able to somehow land Young.

Honestly, that’d be the only scenario I’ll have interest. But if that happens I’d imagine that his stock can increase and perhaps I’d lose interest again

[FantasyFreak]

Maybe…but he never won with route running he has always won with contested catches. I don’t think that’s as sustainable as the guys who produce with route running…and certainly isn’t good from an injury outlook. I’d still definitely put him behind Wilson, Olave, and Williams…but after that I think he’s as good as any.

This is true, but he was also really good at beating press in college. At best, I think he's a competent route runner and separator with room to get better. I think the big issue is how they were using him most of the season. He was really just running clear outs. I think they could've played to his strengths more in the intermediate game. He has upside as a possession receiver.

Pickens put up over 50 grabs and 800 yards with some of the worst QB play in the league this year, having not played almost any football the year before. His rookie year was extremely promising. I did not expect him to do as much as he did year 1, and I was always pretty high on him.

[MacDaddy123]

Pickens is going to be real interesting to follow. I think he remains a great buy. The Steelers offense was a circus and Canada really didn't use him or Diontae Johnson to their strengths.

FFT though on Pickens:

- He finished with a Top-20 (#17) overall WR score on 538. Largely because he has a ridiculous 99 overall catch score, which is insane when you remember he finished with a Top-15 contested catch rate this season. Some of that is him and some of that is the usage.

But, rookies who've finished with a Top 20 Overall Score on 538 since tracking:

Chris Godwin (2017)
D.J. Moore (2018)
Calvin Ridley (2018)
Terry McLaurin (2019)
A.J. Brown (2019)
D.K. Metcalf (2019)
Diontae Johnson (2019)
Preston Williams (2019)
Marquise Brown (2019)
Chase Claypool (2020)
Justin Jefferson (2020)
Ja'Marr Chase (2021)
Chris Olave (2022)
Garrett Wilson (2022)
George Pickens (2022)

Pretty strong list.

I think the route running will get better. 48 is slightly below average from what it looks like.

Maybe…but he never won with route running he has always won with contested catches. I don’t think that’s as sustainable as the guys who produce with route running…and certainly isn’t good from an injury outlook. I’d still definitely put him behind Wilson, Olave, and Williams…but after that I think he’s as good as any.

Comparing apples with oranges, different types of WR's.
Bigger WR's (6'3"- 6'6") tend to have to win with contested catches, not many great route runners.
The smaller WR's tend to have to win with route running.

Just like different types of RB's win different ways.
Smaller RB's usually need to be more efficient catching passes out of the backfield, while bigger RB's tend to win more running between the tackles.

[Bot101]

Maybe…but he never won with route running he has always won with contested catches. I don’t think that’s as sustainable as the guys who produce with route running…and certainly isn’t good from an injury outlook. I’d still definitely put him behind Wilson, Olave, and Williams…but after that I think he’s as good as any.

This is true, but he was also really good at beating press in college. At best, I think he's a competent route runner and separator with room to get better. I think the big issue is how they were using him most of the season. He was really just running clear outs. I think they could've played to his strengths more in the intermediate game. He has upside as a possession receiver.

Pickens put up over 50 grabs and 800 yards with some of the worst QB play in the league this year, having not played almost any football the year before. His rookie year was extremely promising. I did not expect him to do as much as he did year 1, and I was always pretty high on him.

He was good enough that Pittsburgh told Claypool to turn in his playbook.

[mild]

He was good enough that Pittsburgh told Claypool to turn in his playbook.

Getting Chase "I'm a top 5 WR in the NFL" Claypool to announce the draft pick of his eventual successor not even 6 months later will never not be funny to me.

Just an all time act of savagery from the Pittsburgh FO. We love to see it.

[dynastyninja]

He was good enough that Pittsburgh told Claypool to turn in his playbook.

Getting Chase "I'm a top 5 WR in the NFL" Claypool to announce the draft pick of his eventual successor not even 6 months later will never not be funny to me.

Just an all time act of savagery from the Pittsburgh FO. We love to see it.

Couldn't agree more, it was really funny.

[wickerkat1212]

Following. Good stuff in here.

In my 1 ppr league look at this:

TOTAL POINTS

Wilson 200
Olave 185
London 166
Pickens 150
Watson 147
Dotson 121

AVERAGE PER GAME

Olave 13.2
Wilson 12.5
Watson 11.3
Dotson 11.0
London 10.4
Pickens 9.3