Rookie WR Production 2022

[dondickenson]

I don’t know why but when thinking about massaging thresholds for players that I like I remember 2 years ago Denzel Mims had 357 yards in only 8.5 games as a rookie, and I didn’t sell him for the 2021 2.12 when offered while the following players were on the board: ARSB, Rhamondre, Elijah Mitchell. D’oh

[jomaed]

Looks like London and Pickens made it. Also Chig for TE’s. Well done lads.

If anyone has the PFF receiving grades for all the rookies (not just the 47+, all rookies) that would be much appreciated. If not I’ll get a month sub to get them.

On phone so not gonna do the full list, but there were 14 rookie WRs with 30 or more targets and then the next highest is 15 targets, so this the list of the top 14

1 Olave 84.7 Receiving Grade (103 targets)
2 London 83.2 (106)
3 Wilson 82.8 (122)
4 Rashid Shaheed 79.8 (30)
5 Burks 73.9 (53)
6 Watson 72.9 (59)
7 Dotson 71.3 (52)
8 Wandale 70.9 (30)
9 Skyy 70.0 (32)
10 Pickens 67.9 (78)
11 Doubs 64.5 (62)
12 Alec Pierce 60.6 (72)
13 Tyquan Thornton 55.3 (41)
14 David Bell 52.7 (31)

Thanks for sharing! Where do the top 3 guys rank when all WRs are included?

[ericanadian]

I don’t know why but when thinking about massaging thresholds for players that I like I remember 2 years ago Denzel Mims had 357 yards in only 8.5 games as a rookie, and I didn’t sell him for the 2021 2.12 when offered while the following players were on the board: ARSB, Rhamondre, Elijah Mitchell. D’oh

It doesn’t really matter who was on the board though. Who do you think you would’ve taken?

[bjd5211]

Looks like London and Pickens made it. Also Chig for TE’s. Well done lads.

If anyone has the PFF receiving grades for all the rookies (not just the 47+, all rookies) that would be much appreciated. If not I’ll get a month sub to get them.

On phone so not gonna do the full list, but there were 14 rookie WRs with 30 or more targets and then the next highest is 15 targets, so this the list of the top 14

1 Olave 84.7 Receiving Grade (103 targets)
2 London 83.2 (106)
3 Wilson 82.8 (122)
4 Rashid Shaheed 79.8 (30)
5 Burks 73.9 (53)
6 Watson 72.9 (59)
7 Dotson 71.3 (52)
8 Wandale 70.9 (30)
9 Skyy 70.0 (32)
10 Pickens 67.9 (78)
11 Doubs 64.5 (62)
12 Alec Pierce 60.6 (72)
13 Tyquan Thornton 55.3 (41)
14 David Bell 52.7 (31)

Thanks for sharing! Where do the top 3 guys rank when all WRs are included?

I edited my original post because I screwed up Wilson and Drake's scores and listed their Overall Grade instead of Receiving Grade. The actual rankings of the 3 are:

1 Wilson 85.9 (9th overall)
2 Drake 85.3 (10th)
3 Olave 84.7 (12th)

Overall rankings based upon WRs with 50+ targets

Chig among TEs with 30+ targets:

1 Kelce 91.3 (150 targets)
2 Chig 84.6 (45)
3 Goedert 81.7 (67)
4 Kittle 81.5 (74)
5 Freiermuth 80.7 (94)

[dondickenson]

I don’t know why but when thinking about massaging thresholds for players that I like I remember 2 years ago Denzel Mims had 357 yards in only 8.5 games as a rookie, and I didn’t sell him for the 2021 2.12 when offered while the following players were on the board: ARSB, Rhamondre, Elijah Mitchell. D’oh

It doesn’t really matter who was on the board though. Who do you think you would’ve taken?

True. Those were my top 3 guys left on the board, and they went in the next 5 picks. Others left were Amari Rodgers, Dyami Brown, Kellen Mond, Chuba Hubbard, Josh Palmer, Nico Collins, Kylin Hill, Dwayne Eskeidge is roughly the order I had them.

I think I would have gone Mitchell most likely as a Niners fan as our draft was in August and he had already snagged the backup job from Sermon and was getting tons of buzz.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

On phone so not gonna do the full list, but there were 14 rookie WRs with 30 or more targets and then the next highest is 15 targets, so this the list of the top 14

1 Olave 84.7 Receiving Grade (103 targets)
2 London 83.2 (106)
3 Wilson 82.8 (122)
4 Rashid Shaheed 79.8 (30)
5 Burks 73.9 (53)
6 Watson 72.9 (59)
7 Dotson 71.3 (52)
8 Wandale 70.9 (30)
9 Skyy 70.0 (32)
10 Pickens 67.9 (78)
11 Doubs 64.5 (62)
12 Alec Pierce 60.6 (72)
13 Tyquan Thornton 55.3 (41)
14 David Bell 52.7 (31)

Thanks for sharing! Where do the top 3 guys rank when all WRs are included?

I edited my original post because I screwed up Wilson and Drake's scores and listed their Overall Grade instead of Receiving Grade. The actual rankings of the 3 are:

1 Wilson 85.9 (9th overall)
2 Drake 85.3 (10th)
3 Olave 84.7 (12th)

Overall rankings based upon WRs with 50+ targets

Chig among TEs with 30+ targets:

1 Kelce 91.3 (150 targets)
2 Chig 84.6 (45)
3 Goedert 81.7 (67)
4 Kittle 81.5 (74)
5 Freiermuth 80.7 (94)

Thanks for this. Wow a lot of 80's. Usually we get about 1 a year I think, if that.

I'm pretty surprised Shaheed's grade is so high. Very very interesting... If only another .2!!!

[bjd5211]

Thanks for this. Wow a lot of 80's. Usually we get about 1 a year I think, if that.

I'm pretty surprised Shaheed's grade is so high. Very very interesting... If only another .2!!!

It is high, but he also has significantly fewer targets than the top 3 and was just at the the cutoff point of 30 targets. Technically the highest graded rookie WR and 2nd highest overall WR is Jalen Nailor (Minnesota) with a Receiving Grade of 90.8, but he only has 12 targets on the year so it didn't really make sense to include him imo.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Thanks for this. Wow a lot of 80's. Usually we get about 1 a year I think, if that.

I'm pretty surprised Shaheed's grade is so high. Very very interesting... If only another .2!!!

It is high, but he also has significantly fewer targets than the top 3 and was just at the the cutoff point of 30 targets. Technically the highest graded rookie WR and 2nd highest overall WR is Jalen Nailor (Minnesota) with a Receiving Grade of 90.8, but he only has 12 targets on the year so it didn't really make sense to include him imo.

Yes, very true. But way to be a party pooper

[mild]

With the fantasy season now done, some of the more interesting stat reports are starting to trickle in, particularly for the Rookie Wide Receivers. Really good post here on Reddit collating everything in one place like YPRR, PFF grades, Air Yard share, and so on.

I highly recommend going there to read it, as he's got it edited a lot nicer than I can (be bothered to) do here.

I can't make a copy-paste play nice on our forum's editor for the charts, but I can quote his final takeaways:

As I've said all year long, the high-level takeaway is that this is another very strong receiver class.

The top tier finishes the year with a new member. It's been Wilson and Olave since the first post, now it's Wilson, Olave, and London. This may come a surprise for those that just look at raw production, but London very much belongs in this tier. He had the best prospect profile of the three and this numbers across the board are incredible just as they have been all year. He's a priority buy this offseason as he profiles just as well as Wilson or Olave but the market isn't plugged in.

I'm still going to include Watson and Burks in the second tier together. I wouldn't argue too much if you wanted to place Burks a half step down though since Watson's year one numbers are better. Burks is the one exception I'm allowing myself this year though. His numbers were just as good before Tannehill went down and he graded as a such a great prospect that I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt here and still buying both.

Pickens and Dotson still both fit in together in the third tier as players that you may want to shop around. These are the two guys that people have been higher on than their profiles suggest all year nothing's changed. They both have okay prospect+year one profiles but Pickens in particular is just not priced efficiently. The market continues to cool off a bit from his earlier high but it's happening very slowly. If you own him, there's probably someone in your league that is higher on him than you. I'd be thrilled to add a 2nd or something to get up to London. The same story with Dotson though his price isn't as out of whack. He could still be a fine hold but understand much of his value comes from a 20.6% TD rate that is guaranteed to regress. Nothing new with Wan'Dale obviously. I still like him and slot him in this tier. Still sample size concerns. He's obviously much cheaper than either of the other two in this tier. Great buy.

Shaheed and Williams are both interesting. Like I said at the top, neither ran enough routes this year. Shaheed absolutely crushed on his limited sample though. Obviously he had a very bad prospect profile but that concern is priced in. He's so cheap and his numbers are so good that I'm going to look to get him as a throw-in everywhere I can. If you want to view Williams as essentially exactly how you did as a prospect, that's fine with me. It's what the market has done. It's concerning that the Lions never worked him in as more than a 2 target a game deep threat but I suppose it can be overlooked if he was a player you had high priors on. I'm a broken record here but he's so close in market value to London that if I have him, I'm looking to see if I can add a little to make that move.

Skyy Moore I'm bumping down a tier close to just "not interested." He had a good prospect profile and earned targets when we was on the field but the Chiefs didn't feel comfortable using him. Reminds me of Rondale Moore's year 1 for what that's worth. If I can get a speculative throw-in in 1 of my leagues, that'll be about enough exposure for me. I'm fine with a full fade though.

I'm not interested in anyone else. I imagine some people will want to make exceptions for Pierce or Doubs and I've even seem some inexplicable Thornton people out there. It's all a mistake. Don't be the guy in your league paying for these guys.

Some quick thoughts, as echoed in the comments on that post:
- the data vs. perception on George Pickens is very interesting
- Jahan Dotson is a fascinating case study given a lot of people are saying "sell"
- RIP Skyy Moore

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Looks like London and Pickens made it. Also Chig for TE’s. Well done lads.

If anyone has the PFF receiving grades for all the rookies (not just the 47+, all rookies) that would be much appreciated. If not I’ll get a month sub to get them.

On phone so not gonna do the full list, but there were 14 rookie WRs with 30 or more targets and then the next highest is 15 targets, so this the list of the top 14


1 Wilson 85.9*(122 targets)
2 London 85.3*(106)
3 Olave 84.7 Receiving Grade (103)
4 Rashid Shaheed 79.8 (30)
5 Burks 73.9 (53)
6 Watson 72.9 (59)
7 Dotson 71.3 (52)
8 Wandale 70.9 (30)
9 Skyy 70.0 (32)
10 Pickens 67.9 (78)
11 Doubs 64.5 (62)
12 Alec Pierce 60.6 (72)
13 Tyquan Thornton 54.3 (41)
14 David Bell 52.7 (31)

EDIT: I accidentally used the Overall Grade for Wilson and London in my original post, not the Receiving Grade.

Hey are all these grades up to date for end of season? I'm seeing Shaheed had 34 targets this year but you listed him as only having 30. He had 4 targets his last game so this means the grades you listed might be omitting week 18. Would you mind checking this for me please.

[mild]

Hey are all these grades up to date for end of season? I'm seeing Shaheed had 34 targets this year but you listed him as only having 30. He had 4 targets his last game so this means the grades you listed might be omitting week 18. Would you mind checking this for me please.

PFF Grades + NGS Open Scores are all in that Reddit post just above mate, including the correct Shaheed PFF score.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Hey are all these grades up to date for end of season? I'm seeing Shaheed had 34 targets this year but you listed him as only having 30. He had 4 targets his last game so this means the grades you listed might be omitting week 18. Would you mind checking this for me please.

PFF Grades + NGS Open Scores are all in that Reddit post just above mate, including the correct Shaheed PFF score.

Thanks but I need the receiving grade not overall pff grade.

[bjd5211]

Looks like London and Pickens made it. Also Chig for TE’s. Well done lads.

If anyone has the PFF receiving grades for all the rookies (not just the 47+, all rookies) that would be much appreciated. If not I’ll get a month sub to get them.

On phone so not gonna do the full list, but there were 14 rookie WRs with 30 or more targets and then the next highest is 15 targets, so this the list of the top 14


1 Wilson 85.9*(122 targets)
2 London 85.3*(106)
3 Olave 84.7 Receiving Grade (103)
4 Rashid Shaheed 79.8 (30)
5 Burks 73.9 (53)
6 Watson 72.9 (59)
7 Dotson 71.3 (52)
8 Wandale 70.9 (30)
9 Skyy 70.0 (32)
10 Pickens 67.9 (78)
11 Doubs 64.5 (62)
12 Alec Pierce 60.6 (72)
13 Tyquan Thornton 54.3 (41)
14 David Bell 52.7 (31)

EDIT: I accidentally used the Overall Grade for Wilson and London in my original post, not the Receiving Grade.

Hey are all these grades up to date for end of season? I'm seeing Shaheed had 34 targets this year but you listed him as only having 30. He had 4 targets his last game so this means the grades you listed might be omitting week 18. Would you mind checking this for me please.

1 Wilson 85.9
2 London 85.3
3 Olave 82.9
4 Shaheed 78.6
5 Watson 77.8
6 Dotson 74.0
7 Burks 73.9
8 Wan'Dale 70.9
9 Skyy 70.0
10 Pickens 69.3
11 Doubs 62.0
12 Pierce 61.1
13 Thornton 54.3
14 Bell 52.1

[Dynasty DeLorean]

1) Had a few late additions to the list this year, which I'm thankful for so now London and Pickens truthers aren't bitching at me for 6 months
2) PFF Grade of 80+ never(?) bust. Olave, Wilson, and London all fit the bill here.
3) Sub 60 PFF Grade is practically a death sentence. RIP Thornton & Bell. That said, the most likely players to recoup some of their value are speedsters, which Thornton is.
4) Receiving YPG 47+ combined with PFF Grade 75+ is a very safe profile. Nobody fits the criteria this year except those listed above with the 80+ grades.
5) There are 24 players in the sub-47 grouping, which means it's plausible that anywhere between 0-2 studs could still emerge from that group. Place your bets now, who ya got!?
6) Aiyuk seems to be a really undervalued player. I've been able to acquire him for a late-1st or early-2nd in 2 leagues this past year. He literally checks all the boxes. 1st round pick, athletic, 80+ PFF rookie receiving grade, 62 ypg as a rookie, and also sports an 89 open score and 83 overall grade according to ESPN Analytics which utilizes player tracking data. Everything points to Aiyuk being a strong buy at his price.
7) Pickens and Dotson have terrible open scores compared to their values. Something to monitor.
8) I've been seeing talk that people wouldn't sell Dotson, Burks, Moore, etc for 2023 1st and I think that is really misguided. Based on the available data, I would feel comfortable recommending to sell any of these players for any 1st I could get my hands on (or transitioning to another player, such as Aiyuk as I outlined above). I understand there will probably be a stud or two out of the sub-47 group, but identifying which ones is going to be difficult. The odds are better with a random 1st round WR next year (~30% odds) as opposed to a WR who had a "bust" of a rookie season this year (~2-10% odds).
9) CHIGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG


Update For Week 18

67+ Rookie Reception Yards per Game
90% Stud
90% Good or better
Chris Olave [69][PFF Grade: 82.9][Open Score: 82]


57-66 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
50% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Garrett Wilson [64][PFF Grade: 85.9][Open Score: 77]


47-56 Rookie Reception Yards per Game
38% Stud
57-69% Good or better
Drake London [50][PFF Grade: 85.3][Open Score: 69]
George Pickens [47][PFF Grade: 69.3][Open Score: 48]

--------------------

Less than 47
2-10% Stud
4-24% Good or better
Christian Watson [43][PFF Grade: 77.8][Open Score: 73]
Jahan Dotson [43][PFF Grade: 74.0][Open Score: 46]
Rashid Shaheed [40][PFF Grade: 78.6]
Treylon Burks [40][PFF Grade: 73.9][Open Score: 66]
Alec Pierce [37][PFF Grade: 61.1][Open Score: 38]
Romeo Doubs [32][PFF Grade: 62.0][Open Score: 57]
Tyquan Thornton [19][PFF Grade: 54.3]
Skyy Moore [15][PFF Grade: 70.0]
David Bell [13][PFF Grade: 52.1]
Jalen Nailor [11]
Khalil Shakir [11]
Velus Jones Jr. [8]
Jalen Virgil [8]
Smori Toure [7]
Michael Woods II [4]
Dareke Young [1]
Tim Jones [1]
Danny Gray [0]
KaVontae Turpin [0]
Montrell Washington [0]
Britain Covey [0]
Lance McCutcheon [0]
DJ Turner [0]
Raleigh Webb [0]


---------------------------------------------------
*Stud = 3+ seasons of 1k+ receiving yards
*Good = 3+ seasons 750+ receiving yards
*Based on 1995-2015 sample
*Minimum of 9 games played
*PFF Grade = PFF Receiving Grade
--------------------------------------------------



__________________________________________________
Rookie TE Report: Update For Week 18

Looking for:
Yards per Game - 20+
Catch Percentage - 68%+
Yards per Target - 8+
Games played - 9+

These criteria may help identify future studs at the TE position. Until this year, only 11 players had qualified for this list since 1995, with most of them being either studs or promising players. Chigoziem Okonkwo becomes the 12th player added to this list, clearing all the benchmarks with flying colors. He's an interesting case because he doesn't fit the prototypical mold of a TE (he's only 6'2"), but he's hyper athletic and his price is relatively cheap. He's a buy/hold imo.

Comps
Delanie Walker
Jordan Reed

__________________________________________________


Also don't forget, I know we place a lot of emphasis on the rookie season, but any 1k yard breakout is a significant indicator of a stud in the making (about 50% odds). Here are some potentially undervalued players to keep an eye on who recently had a 1k yard receiving season (at some point from 2020-2022). To reiterate, this is not the full list, just the potentially undervalued players;

DeVonta Smith
Christian Kirk
Mike Williams
Deebo Samuel
Michael Pittman Jr.
Diontae Johnson
Marquise Brown
Calvin Ridley
Robbie Anderson

If we go back to 2019 we can also add;

Tyler Boyd
DJ Chark
Michael Gallup
DeVante Parker
Courtland Sutton


Just some names to keep in the back of your head. I'm not saying to go out and sell the farm for these players, but some of them are dirt cheap, could be a worthwhile addition to your team. I think I mainly did this to highlight Calvin Ridley.

__________________________________________________

[Cameron Giles]

Pickens is going to be real interesting to follow. I think he remains a great buy. The Steelers offense was a circus and Canada really didn't use him or Diontae Johnson to their strengths.

FFT though on Pickens:

- He finished with a Top-20 (#17) overall WR score on 538. Largely because he has a ridiculous 99 overall catch score, which is insane when you remember he finished with a Top-15 contested catch rate this season. Some of that is him and some of that is the usage.

But, rookies who've finished with a Top 20 Overall Score on 538 since tracking:

Chris Godwin (2017)
D.J. Moore (2018)
Calvin Ridley (2018)
Terry McLaurin (2019)
A.J. Brown (2019)
D.K. Metcalf (2019)
Diontae Johnson (2019)
Preston Williams (2019)
Marquise Brown (2019)
Chase Claypool (2020)
Justin Jefferson (2020)
Ja'Marr Chase (2021)
Chris Olave (2022)
Garrett Wilson (2022)
George Pickens (2022)

Pretty strong list.

I think the route running will get better. 48 is slightly below average from what it looks like.