Treylon Burks thread

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Well, right now you could probably still get a 2nd round rookie pick for Burks.
Most Burks managers will hold, but fact is that many 1st round WR's wind up busting.

I mean, probably could have cashed out on N'Keal Harry, Jalen Reagor, etc., in their 2nd seasons for a 2nd round rookie pick.
Probably happy if you did looking back on them now.

Point is just that holding doesn't always work out.
Value is not guaranteed to rebound.

Yeah, I held N’Keal Harry until it was too late, but I had drafted Reagor in damn near all my leagues but was able to see the writing on the wall before it was too late and cashed out for either a 2nd or used him in a package to get a stud in all my leagues. I think one league maybe 2 years back, I sent mixon, Pittman, Reagor and Trautman to get Justin Jefferson. Since I started my rookie wr production thread, I’ve been ejecting unproductive rookie wrs from my team a lot faster than I normally would, and buying wrs that did have impressive rookie seasons but whose value got depressed (like Aiyuk for example). I wouldn’t sell for peanuts, for example i couldn’t sell Pittman in several places (I drafted a lot of Pittman and Reagor that year, but for whatever reason Reagor a value held better), and you know it’s fortunate I did hold instead of selling for peanuts in a couple of leagues because he’s doing well now. But Pittman also checked a ton of boxes for me so I had some confidence he’d be able to turn it around. I think my strategy for selling at the time was packaging both and attempting to get a mid-late 1st. But anyway, Burks is a bit intriguing so I wouldn’t sell for peanuts but come up with creative ways to get him off most of your teams. Package up Burks plus something small for London, as just one example.

The Burks+ for London idea is interesting. Was trying to find your final 2022 rookie wr ypg chart, but I can’t seem to find the thread. Where did London rank?

viewtopic.php?p=2149534#p2149534

[BabyChark23]

Yeah, I held N’Keal Harry until it was too late, but I had drafted Reagor in damn near all my leagues but was able to see the writing on the wall before it was too late and cashed out for either a 2nd or used him in a package to get a stud in all my leagues. I think one league maybe 2 years back, I sent mixon, Pittman, Reagor and Trautman to get Justin Jefferson. Since I started my rookie wr production thread, I’ve been ejecting unproductive rookie wrs from my team a lot faster than I normally would, and buying wrs that did have impressive rookie seasons but whose value got depressed (like Aiyuk for example). I wouldn’t sell for peanuts, for example i couldn’t sell Pittman in several places (I drafted a lot of Pittman and Reagor that year, but for whatever reason Reagor a value held better), and you know it’s fortunate I did hold instead of selling for peanuts in a couple of leagues because he’s doing well now. But Pittman also checked a ton of boxes for me so I had some confidence he’d be able to turn it around. I think my strategy for selling at the time was packaging both and attempting to get a mid-late 1st. But anyway, Burks is a bit intriguing so I wouldn’t sell for peanuts but come up with creative ways to get him off most of your teams. Package up Burks plus something small for London, as just one example.

The Burks+ for London idea is interesting. Was trying to find your final 2022 rookie wr ypg chart, but I can’t seem to find the thread. Where did London rank?

viewtopic.php?p=2149534#p2149534

Thanks!

[Jrblaha]

My second round PPR 1 QB was as follows:

2.1 Tank Bigsby
2.2 LaPorta
2.3 Mingo
2.4 Young
2.5 RJ
2.6 Rice
2.7 Spears
2.8 Mayer
2.9 Downs
2.10 Reed
2.11 CJ
2.12 Evans

Not a high % in that list that I’d prefer over holding Burks which is why I wouldn’t flip him for a 2nd. His rebound rate is higher than hitting on a second imo

[gpaok]

My second round PPR 1 QB was as follows:

2.1 Tank Bigsby
2.2 LaPorta
2.3 Mingo
2.4 Young
2.5 RJ
2.6 Rice
2.7 Spears
2.8 Mayer
2.9 Downs
2.10 Reed
2.11 CJ
2.12 Evans

Not a high % in that list that I’d prefer over holding Burks which is why I wouldn’t flip him for a 2nd. His rebound rate is higher than hitting on a second imo

The thing is one is trending down (Burks), and it only takes 2-3 weeks and the 2nd rounders could jump significantly. We are in week 4 and I would already take LaPorta, Spears, and maybe Mingo, Reed, Downs over Burks.

[Jrblaha]

My second round PPR 1 QB was as follows:

2.1 Tank Bigsby
2.2 LaPorta
2.3 Mingo
2.4 Young
2.5 RJ
2.6 Rice
2.7 Spears
2.8 Mayer
2.9 Downs
2.10 Reed
2.11 CJ
2.12 Evans

Not a high % in that list that I’d prefer over holding Burks which is why I wouldn’t flip him for a 2nd. His rebound rate is higher than hitting on a second imo

The thing is one is trending down (Burks), and it only takes 2-3 weeks and the 2nd rounders could jump significantly. We are in week 4 and I would already take LaPorta, Spears, and maybe Mingo, Reed, Downs over Burks.

I agree with your first sentence, but the percentage for the second part still isn’t good unless you’re super low on Burks rebounding or change your maybes to yeses and add more others to yes.

LaPorta is probably a yes for me, but the rest are currently no’s. For me, for swapping Burks to a 2nd, to work out well, I would only have a 1/12 (8%) chance of being successful. If you add more people to yes, obviously the % goes up, so you’d be at 17% (more if the maybes change to yes, but still under 50%). I have Mingo and I’d trade him for Burks.

[Jigga94]

My second round PPR 1 QB was as follows:

2.1 Tank Bigsby
2.2 LaPorta
2.3 Mingo
2.4 Young
2.5 RJ
2.6 Rice
2.7 Spears
2.8 Mayer
2.9 Downs
2.10 Reed
2.11 CJ
2.12 Evans

Not a high % in that list that I’d prefer over holding Burks which is why I wouldn’t flip him for a 2nd. His rebound rate is higher than hitting on a second imo

Was Mims a 1st? Stroud?

[Jrblaha]

My second round PPR 1 QB was as follows:

2.1 Tank Bigsby
2.2 LaPorta
2.3 Mingo
2.4 Young
2.5 RJ
2.6 Rice
2.7 Spears
2.8 Mayer
2.9 Downs
2.10 Reed
2.11 CJ
2.12 Evans

Not a high % in that list that I’d prefer over holding Burks which is why I wouldn’t flip him for a 2nd. His rebound rate is higher than hitting on a second imo

Was Mims a 1st? Stroud?

Mims was a 1st - 1.12
CJ was 2.11

[Farley]

My second round PPR 1 QB was as follows:

2.1 Tank Bigsby
2.2 LaPorta
2.3 Mingo
2.4 Young
2.5 RJ
2.6 Rice
2.7 Spears
2.8 Mayer
2.9 Downs
2.10 Reed
2.11 CJ
2.12 Evans

Not a high % in that list that I’d prefer over holding Burks which is why I wouldn’t flip him for a 2nd. His rebound rate is higher than hitting on a second imo

The thing is one is trending down (Burks), and it only takes 2-3 weeks and the 2nd rounders could jump significantly. We are in week 4 and I would already take LaPorta, Spears, and maybe Mingo, Reed, Downs over Burks.

I agree with your first sentence, but the percentage for the second part still isn’t good unless you’re super low on Burks rebounding or change your maybes to yeses and add more others to yes.

LaPorta is probably a yes for me, but the rest are currently no’s. For me, for swapping Burks to a 2nd, to work out well, I would only have a 1/12 (8%) chance of being successful. If you add more people to yes, obviously the % goes up, so you’d be at 17% (more if the maybes change to yes, but still under 50%). I have Mingo and I’d trade him for Burks.

Burks at one season + 3 weeks + possible chronic knee issues = need more time to evaluate; lots of opportunity to rebound

versus

Collective 2nd round rookies at 3 games in the NFL = 8% chance of a stud; 92% chance rest are trash; I've seen enough

[Sriracha]

My second round PPR 1 QB was as follows:

2.1 Tank Bigsby
2.2 LaPorta
2.3 Mingo
2.4 Young
2.5 RJ
2.6 Rice
2.7 Spears
2.8 Mayer
2.9 Downs
2.10 Reed
2.11 CJ
2.12 Evans

Not a high % in that list that I’d prefer over holding Burks which is why I wouldn’t flip him for a 2nd. His rebound rate is higher than hitting on a second imo

The thing is one is trending down (Burks), and it only takes 2-3 weeks and the 2nd rounders could jump significantly. We are in week 4 and I would already take LaPorta, Spears, and maybe Mingo, Reed, Downs over Burks.

I agree with your first sentence, but the percentage for the second part still isn’t good unless you’re super low on Burks rebounding or change your maybes to yeses and add more others to yes.

LaPorta is probably a yes for me, but the rest are currently no’s. For me, for swapping Burks to a 2nd, to work out well, I would only have a 1/12 (8%) chance of being successful. If you add more people to yes, obviously the % goes up, so you’d be at 17% (more if the maybes change to yes, but still under 50%). I have Mingo and I’d trade him for Burks.

Not high percentage prospects; but I'd rather have LaPorta, Reed, Rice who have all already flashed more than Burks has in 3 games.. and that list doesn't even include Nakua and Dell who have outperformed their draft slot significantly or Mims who was usually available in that draft slot, as well.

You could argue that his situation isn't ideal.. but I don't see it getting all that much better for the forseeable future and he's shown nothing that makes me believe his ceiling is significantly higher than these other WRs already breaking out.

[StripesOfKC]

The thing is one is trending down (Burks), and it only takes 2-3 weeks and the 2nd rounders could jump significantly. We are in week 4 and I would already take LaPorta, Spears, and maybe Mingo, Reed, Downs over Burks.

I agree with your first sentence, but the percentage for the second part still isn’t good unless you’re super low on Burks rebounding or change your maybes to yeses and add more others to yes.

LaPorta is probably a yes for me, but the rest are currently no’s. For me, for swapping Burks to a 2nd, to work out well, I would only have a 1/12 (8%) chance of being successful. If you add more people to yes, obviously the % goes up, so you’d be at 17% (more if the maybes change to yes, but still under 50%). I have Mingo and I’d trade him for Burks.

Not high percentage prospects; but I'd rather have LaPorta, Reed, Rice who have all already flashed more than Burks has in 3 games.. and that list doesn't even include Nakua and Dell who have outperformed their draft slot significantly or Mims who was usually available in that draft slot, as well.

You could argue that his situation isn't ideal.. but I don't see it getting all that much better for the forseeable future and he's shown nothing that makes me believe his ceiling is significantly higher than these other WRs already breaking out.

Umm what?

Burks rookie year production was not bad

[StripesOfKC]

To clarify 16% target share, 17% target rate, 28% air yards share is very much in the solid range for rookie WRs and that’s despite exiting games with injury

Rashee Rice has absolutely not shown more in three games than that

[Sriracha]

Not high percentage prospects; but I'd rather have LaPorta, Reed, Rice who have all already flashed more than Burks has in 3 games.. and that list doesn't even include Nakua and Dell who have outperformed their draft slot significantly or Mims who was usually available in that draft slot, as well.

You could argue that his situation isn't ideal.. but I don't see it getting all that much better for the forseeable future and he's shown nothing that makes me believe his ceiling is significantly higher than these other WRs already breaking out.

Umm what?

Burks rookie year production was not bad

Rice is currently 10th in the NFL at 2.84 YPRR and his target rate of 36.4% is 4th among qualifying WRs.

Reed is currently 28th in the NFL at 2.06 YPRR and his target rate of 27.8% is 18th in the NFL.

Burks is 62nd in the NFL at 1.3 YPRR and his target rate of 17.1% is 69th in the NFL; His rookie year YPRR of 1.96 and target rate of 23.8% ranked 32nd and 31st.

I realize we're still working on small sample sizes but I just don't see Burks' efficiency metrics indicating anything special his rookie year and he's taken a big step backwards (perhaps not entirely his fault) in year 2.

When you add to this that I don't see his situation markedly improving in the near future I'd just prefer to have WRs producing right now then to wait on a WR whose ceiling I don't perceive to be markedly higher.

[StripesOfKC]

Not high percentage prospects; but I'd rather have LaPorta, Reed, Rice who have all already flashed more than Burks has in 3 games.. and that list doesn't even include Nakua and Dell who have outperformed their draft slot significantly or Mims who was usually available in that draft slot, as well.

You could argue that his situation isn't ideal.. but I don't see it getting all that much better for the forseeable future and he's shown nothing that makes me believe his ceiling is significantly higher than these other WRs already breaking out.

Umm what?

Burks rookie year production was not bad

Rice is currently 10th in the NFL at 2.84 YPRR and his target rate of 36.4% is 4th among qualifying WRs.

Reed is currently 28th in the NFL at 2.06 YPRR and his target rate of 27.8% is 18th in the NFL.

Burks is 62nd in the NFL at 1.3 YPRR and his target rate of 17.1% is 69th in the NFL; His rookie year YPRR of 1.96 and target rate of 23.8% ranked 32nd and 31st.

If you wanted to use YPRR and only YPRR yes I can see how you came to the conclusion of Rice having shown more

Of course that would also lead you to the conclusion that Rice is one of the best WRs in the NFL

Reed has a better case though I see him getting alphad by Watson soon enough

[Sriracha]

Umm what?

Burks rookie year production was not bad

Rice is currently 10th in the NFL at 2.84 YPRR and his target rate of 36.4% is 4th among qualifying WRs.

Reed is currently 28th in the NFL at 2.06 YPRR and his target rate of 27.8% is 18th in the NFL.

Burks is 62nd in the NFL at 1.3 YPRR and his target rate of 17.1% is 69th in the NFL; His rookie year YPRR of 1.96 and target rate of 23.8% ranked 32nd and 31st.

If you wanted to use YPRR and only YPRR yes I can see how you came to the conclusion of Rice having shown more

Of course that would also lead you to the conclusion that Rice is one of the best WRs in the NFL

Reed has a better case though I see him getting alphad by Watson soon enough

in case you missed my edit:

I realize we're still working on small sample sizes but I just don't see Burks' efficiency metrics indicating anything special his rookie year and he's taken a big step backwards (perhaps not entirely his fault) in year 2.

When you add to this that I don't see his situation markedly improving in the near future I'd just prefer to have WRs producing right now then to wait on a WR whose ceiling I don't perceive to be markedly higher.

[StripesOfKC]

Rice is currently 10th in the NFL at 2.84 YPRR and his target rate of 36.4% is 4th among qualifying WRs.

Reed is currently 28th in the NFL at 2.06 YPRR and his target rate of 27.8% is 18th in the NFL.

Burks is 62nd in the NFL at 1.3 YPRR and his target rate of 17.1% is 69th in the NFL; His rookie year YPRR of 1.96 and target rate of 23.8% ranked 32nd and 31st.

If you wanted to use YPRR and only YPRR yes I can see how you came to the conclusion of Rice having shown more

Of course that would also lead you to the conclusion that Rice is one of the best WRs in the NFL

Reed has a better case though I see him getting alphad by Watson soon enough

in case you missed my edit:

I realize we're still working on small sample sizes but I just don't see Burks' efficiency metrics indicating anything special his rookie year and he's taken a big step backwards (perhaps not entirely his fault) in year 2.

When you add to this that I don't see his situation markedly improving in the near future I'd just prefer to have WRs producing right now then to wait on a WR whose ceiling I don't perceive to be markedly higher.

In the games Tannehill played last year and not Malik Willis the YPRR was 2.15 fwiw

Now with that said PFF surprisingly rates Rice pretty high (81 compared to 74 for rookie Burks and 69 for Reed)--so I am taking a deeper look at him