Treylon Burks thread

[Pullo Vision]

Tennessee traded AJ Brown, then used the pick they got to draft Treylon Burks. People compared him to Brown pre draft, so people loved the move. That ignores things like his lack of NFL route familiarity- per PFF, almost 20% of his routes came behind the line of scrimmage on screen, flare, ghost and slide concepts.

So after a disappointing TC due to reported asthma/breathing/conditioning issues, he underwhems in preseason, playing into the 4th quarter of week 2.

His issues are nothing like Jamarr Chase's drop struggles last year. I'm staying far, far away from him. I've read he's dropped into the 2nd round of rookie drafts going on currently or recently concluded. His value would have to drop waaay further down to interest me.

[Mjvb5]

I'd take the shot in the 2nd but I tried to get out for his predraft value early on in the year and have been relatively low on him through the draft process( he was my 5 or 6). Looking at ranks if he was there at 15 or 16 overall I'd have to take the shot over a Tolbert, bell, spiller type

[Ice]

The coached seemed pretty happy with him. It is going to take some time but moving off him is a bit premature.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports ... 312903002/

It is dynasty and having a few difficult weeks isn't out of the ordinary for a rookie even though it is frustrating for his owners.

[FantasyFreak]

I honestly, (pre studying because I had no firsts at the time) thought he may be the 1.01 pre-draft. The guy has so many red flags, is stuck in a run first offense an no real future at QB, in sight. If it had been Deebo getting moved, and Burks replacing him in SF, I'd have a different outlook, but I just don't see the ceiling here, and the floor is in the basement, and the foundation is leaking.

[Jigga94]

I honestly, (pre studying because I had no firsts at the time) thought he may be the 1.01 pre-draft. The guy has so many red flags, is stuck in a run first offense an no real future at QB, in sight. If it had been Deebo getting moved, and Burks replacing him in SF, I'd have a different outlook, but I just don't see the ceiling here, and the floor is in the basement, and the foundation is leaking.

Keep Burks out of that basement. Sounds like it might be hard to breathe.

I agree as well though. Really liked him for a second and then it all seemed to fall apart the further you looked. He may be a value in the 2nd, but plenty of reasons he may not cut it anyways

[BabyChark23]

I agree there are some legitimate concerns… but the 2nd? What’s the list of guys you would take over him? I can’t think of 12 in this class.

[FantasyFreak]

I agree there are some legitimate concerns… but the 2nd? What’s the list of guys you would take over him? I can’t think of 12 in this class.

First off, this is not a shot at you, and I agree, and I am not personally saying 2nd, but man, I would trade for any first next year. Weight issues since college, poor route runner, breathing issues, no good QB in the outlook, as it stands.....run first offense, Pats Defensive coach as the HC. I mean, Henry is on borrowed time, AJB gone, give me the names of talent on that team...... can you not see a situation in a year or two where this roster is in total overhaul, including a new coaching staff? I can. I think it's very likely, actually.

[halfbaked88]

If I had Burks I'd be fine holding him for 6 weeks into the season and re-evaluate. If I'm in a rookie draft I'm still taking him over Skyy Moore, Watson and any RB not named Breece or KW.

The point about PFF route trees: They didn't ask AJB to run a full route tree there. Dez Bryant made a career off of like 2 routes. Burks doesn't need to be Keenan Allen or Davante Adams out there. There's different styles of WR and he can still win at the catch point at an elite level.

I do have concerns for this year though and him losing short-term value and that value won't recover quickly enough before Tannehill and Henry diminish.

Ideally I would be trying to trade out of Burks in favor of Olave/J Williams and pick up a 2nd if I could.

Mike Vrabel seems like a hard-nosed coach that would punish you for showing up to camp outta shape. He is a good coach though. Long term I think Burks will be OK.

It's Tannehill, and Henry and the future of the Titans franchise that scares me the most.

[j4pac]

I have Burks as my #7 WR after London, Olave, Williams, Wilson, Pickens, and Moore. So yeah…I’m not owning him anywhere. He has talent but not enough talent to overcome a bad offense and obvious red flags.

[Cameron Giles]

It's not looking good to start, and there should be concern. There are teams protecting WRs in preseason who were drafted lower than him.

The silver lining is that he is going to play a lot at some point. The Titans have a pretty bad WR room, so the opportunity is there. I think dropping him to the 2nd round is too hard of a reaction, but I would not be mad if anyone dropped him to 1.09-1.10 right now.

The rookies I'd take over him today: Hall, Walker, London, Wilson, Olave, J-Will, Pickens, Skyy, Dotson

[BabyChark23]

I agree there are some legitimate concerns… but the 2nd? What’s the list of guys you would take over him? I can’t think of 12 in this class.

First off, this is not a shot at you, and I agree, and I am not personally saying 2nd, but man, I would trade for any first next year. Weight issues since college, poor route runner, breathing issues, no good QB in the outlook, as it stands.....run first offense, Pats Defensive coach as the HC. I mean, Henry is on borrowed time, AJB gone, give me the names of talent on that team...... can you not see a situation in a year or two where this roster is in total overhaul, including a new coaching staff? I can. I think it's very likely, actually.

I agree that any 1st in 23 would be enough for me. OP said 2022 rookie drafts currently ongoing were seeing him go in the 2nd and that he wasn’t sure if that was too high. Risk fully considered, I can’t think of 12 2022 rookies that I would take over him. I will likely be looking for an opportunity to sell my one share when/if his value reaches a random 2023 1st or equivalent in value.

[Avery]

Goes without saying, this is not an ideal start.
Having said that, him dropping to the second in rookie drafts is bad process, IMO.

Maybe he should move back behind the other first round WRs but given the hit rate of 1st round WRs vs 2nd rounders, letting him drop behind 2nd and 3rd round draft picks is an overreaction to preseason.

React but don’t overreact and I say that knowing that he may be a bust but that doesn’t change my process opinion.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I was trying to think of rookies with similar trajectories right out of the gate that then went on to be studs vs busts. Guys with real signals and not noise. Noise was Chase last year. Drops are not a signal. Signal is playing into the 4th quarter of both preseason games and a bunch of bad reports out of camp/offseason.

Busts -
Nkeal Harry, Mims, Treadwell, DGB, JJAW

Studs-
Davante Adams, ?

[FantasyFreak]

I was trying to think of rookies with similar trajectories right out of the gate that then went on to be studs vs busts. Guys with real signals and not noise. Noise was Chase last year. Drops are not a signal. Signal is playing into the 4th quarter of both preseason games and a bunch of bad reports out of camp/offseason.

Busts -
Nkeal Harry, Mims, Treadwell, DGB, JJAW

Studs-
Davante Adams, ?

and to my point earlier, the QB situation is less than ideal. I mean, what are the chances he gets a prime Aaoron Rodgers level QB in a few years? It's not looking good. I honestly thought he might bust hard, after my initial look into him, and I am not exactly confident I am wrong, at this point.

[mild]

I was trying to think of rookies with similar trajectories right out of the gate that then went on to be studs vs busts...

I forget exactly who had the stat - I think it's been touted by quite a few sources, actually - but the breakout rate for WR's who completely bust in their first season is greatly reduced.

And if it's no meaningful production in their first 2 seasons, then it's basically not going to happen. (This is a stat a lot of people tout for Jerry Jeudy, and is probably the reason his ADP has risen, but semi-plateau'd - whilst Sutton's ADP has continued to rise)

I don't see a big QB upgrade coming down the pipe for TEN next year. I don't see a marked improvement in circumstance for Treylon either - the job is currently wide open for the taking, and Kyle Philips is taking it instead. It's a worrying start to his career, without a doubt.