George Pickens, where did we go wrong?

[TheTroll]

Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh has always had some sort of pure, dynamic separator who they relied on heavily. I don't know if they're going to use their first rounder to get that guy, but Day 2 is usually when the Steelers do serious damage with WRs:

- Mike Wallace
- Emmanuel Sanders
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Diontae Johnson
- George Pickens

Ladd McConkey seems like the archetype for the type of WR they like. I also would keep an eye on Ricky Pearsall. He would fit right in there as a big slot and immediately compliment Pickens.

ooh this is good stuff

[murphysxm]

However, if we wait until Pickens produces an overall WR5 season in 2024, we'll all have to pay twice today's price to trade for him.

Obviously, but I have very little confidence Pickens will ever be a WR5, so don’t want to buy when he is hyped and am fine missing if I am wrong.

[Anteaters]

Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh has always had some sort of pure, dynamic separator who they relied on heavily. I don't know if they're going to use their first rounder to get that guy, but Day 2 is usually when the Steelers do serious damage with WRs:

- Mike Wallace
- Emmanuel Sanders
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Diontae Johnson
- George Pickens

Ladd McConkey seems like the archetype for the type of WR they like. I also would keep an eye on Ricky Pearsall. He would fit right in there as a big slot and immediately compliment Pickens.

ooh this is good stuff

++

[Anteaters]

However, if we wait until Pickens produces an overall WR5 season in 2024, we'll all have to pay twice today's price to trade for him.

Obviously, but I have very little confidence Pickens will ever be a WR5, so don’t want to buy when he is hyped and am fine missing if I am wrong.

That's a perfectly reasonable way to play fantasy football. Just as leeway is given for the personal preference to "go get your guy", I think everyone has the right to "avoid their anti-guy." No reason required beyond not having that feeling.

[mild]

My opinion of their relative values is this. Those other guys (Flowers/Rice/DJM and while we're at it, Addison/Higgins/London) have higher prices/values attached to them, but have not significantly outperformed Pickens' 2023 season. I understand having a personal preference for any of them over Pickens -- However there is no statistical reasoning for a substantial difference in value/price. So, if there is not valid statistical reason to justify the higher value/cost of those guys, I'd rather pursue a WR positioned to outproduce them who costs less than they do. Or at worst, costs an equal amount.

Flowers - will always be the second option as long as MAndrews is around
Rice - Hello Mr Hollywood.
DJM - Hello Mr Allen.
Addison - distant 2nd fiddle to J-freaking-J
Higgins - already covered this one
London - Despite being WR1 in Atlanta, London has never produced a season close to as productive as Pickens did as the WR2 in PITT in 2023.

IMO, it's a win-win, because the price is (hopefully) cheaper AND the production will be better.

There is a substantial reason, and that's the QB play that these players in particular are attached to.

Rice - has the chance to be Mahomes #1 option. Entirely possible that they are grooming him for the Kelce role.
DJM - simply has to beat out a 32 year old WR for the honour of being Caleb Williams go-to option.
London - the #1 guy for Kirk, who has supported overall WR1 seasons with JJeff.

Neither Fields nor Russ have supported a WR1 overall season. Fields came closest last year, supporting DJ Moore's WR6 overall finish - but he's sitting on the bench, and arguably, Pickens hasn't shown that he's in DJ Moore's tier to this point either. Certainly not as a complete receiver that can run all routes at all depths.

We can hold the Pickens victory party until after the draft, anyway. It'll be interesting to see which of the young hype WR's he'll be running against this year whilst doing his best 2023 Courtland Sutton impression.

[Ruggenater]

Russell Wilson may not have gotten a WR to WR1 overall, but BOTH Metcalf and Lockett were WR1s in the 2020 season with Russ at QB.

[mild]

Russell Wilson may not have gotten a WR to WR1 overall, but BOTH Metcalf and Lockett were WR1s in the 2020 season with Russ at QB.

Great, how exciting.

How's it gone in 3 full seasons since then?

I'm sorry, but 2020 Russell Wilson is not walking back through that door.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

The big play bandit

[Anteaters]

My opinion of their relative values is this. Those other guys (Flowers/Rice/DJM and while we're at it, Addison/Higgins/London) have higher prices/values attached to them, but have not significantly outperformed Pickens' 2023 season. I understand having a personal preference for any of them over Pickens -- However there is no statistical reasoning for a substantial difference in value/price. So, if there is not valid statistical reason to justify the higher value/cost of those guys, I'd rather pursue a WR positioned to outproduce them who costs less than they do. Or at worst, costs an equal amount.

Flowers - will always be the second option as long as MAndrews is around
Rice - Hello Mr Hollywood.
DJM - Hello Mr Allen.
Addison - distant 2nd fiddle to J-freaking-J
Higgins - already covered this one
London - Despite being WR1 in Atlanta, London has never produced a season close to as productive as Pickens did as the WR2 in PITT in 2023.

IMO, it's a win-win, because the price is (hopefully) cheaper AND the production will be better.

There is a substantial reason, and that's the QB play that these players in particular are attached to.

Rice - has the chance to be Mahomes #1 option. Entirely possible that they are grooming him for the Kelce role.
DJM - simply has to beat out a 32 year old WR for the honour of being Caleb Williams go-to option.
London - the #1 guy for Kirk, who has supported overall WR1 seasons with JJeff.

Neither Fields nor Russ have supported a WR1 overall season. Fields came closest last year, supporting DJ Moore's WR6 overall finish - but he's sitting on the bench, and arguably, Pickens hasn't shown that he's in DJ Moore's tier to this point either. Certainly not as a complete receiver that can run all routes at all depths.

We can hold the Pickens victory party until after the draft, anyway. It'll be interesting to see which of the young hype WR's he'll be running against this year whilst doing his best 2023 Courtland Sutton impression.

Glad to read your reasoned opinions. I almost responded with "But but but". Respectfully not going to debate your opinions on Rice/DJM/London. We've both (and others have) presented our stats, opinions and reasons. At this point, we have to wait for the season to start to see which players rise to the top.

When does week 1 start?

[mild]

Glad to read your reasoned opinions. I almost responded with "But but but". Respectfully not going to debate your opinions on Rice/DJM/London. We've both (and others have) presented our stats, opinions and reasons. At this point, we have to wait for the season to start to see which players rise to the top.

When does week 1 start?

Aka "it occurs to me that I am going to have to defend Russell Wilson in this line of argument, and I don't like picking a losing horse so I'll just bow out here by saying you're entitled to your opinion"

[Anteaters]

Glad to read your reasoned opinions. I almost responded with "But but but". Respectfully not going to debate your opinions on Rice/DJM/London. We've both (and others have) presented our stats, opinions and reasons. At this point, we have to wait for the season to start to see which players rise to the top.

When does week 1 start?

Aka "it occurs to me that I am going to have to defend Russell Wilson in this line of argument, and I don't like picking a losing horse so I'll just bow out here by saying you're entitled to your opinion"

Hey, if people can insist Aaron Rodgers can support GWilson's yet-to-come T12WR season, there's no reason not to expect Russ to support George's forthcoming T12WR season. At age 36 Stafford just created a new fantasy T12WR in Puka. Russ is a year younger than Stafford, so why not Russ?

Let's hear it for the new line of old-man QBs!!!!

[FantasyFreak]

63/1140 and 5 last year on 106 targets, and had a goose egg in that last game in monsoon vs the Ravens, so he did that in the first 16 games.

Curious the outlook for Pickens, now that he's the clear number 1, with a slight upgrade at QB this season.

[abloom]

63/1140 and 5 last year on 106 targets, and had a goose egg in that last game in monsoon vs the Ravens, so he did that in the first 16 games.

Curious the outlook for Pickens, now that he's the clear number 1, with a slight upgrade at QB this season.

Really depends on how the offense functions. I doubt it's a high quantity passing attack, but I think he should see consistent output. Atleast the AFC north has some good offenses.

[CGW]

63/1140 and 5 last year on 106 targets, and had a goose egg in that last game in monsoon vs the Ravens, so he did that in the first 16 games.

Curious the outlook for Pickens, now that he's the clear number 1, with a slight upgrade at QB this season.

And it's pretty wild he did it while taking several games off mentally. I'd agree, I'd think the change (upgrade?) at QB should give him a bump in stats.

[Bronco Billy]

63/1140 and 5 last year on 106 targets, and had a goose egg in that last game in monsoon vs the Ravens, so he did that in the first 16 games.

Curious the outlook for Pickens, now that he's the clear number 1, with a slight upgrade at QB this season.

It’s not all pluses. He’s also going to draw opponent’s best cover guy, and I’m pretty convinced Pickens is not talented enough to win a game long battle with any shut down corners he’ll face. Being a team’s WR1 is only a plus when the guy is a legit alpha.