Isaiah Pacheco

[Shcritters]

Time to dust off this thread…

Pacheco missed two games and is RB #13 in my main leagues. He just helped me win a ship, and looks to have started getting some the receiving work (5, 3, 4, 7 receptions in his last 4 games) given the receivers in KC are poor and Kelce seems to have started slipping.

I believe, and think he’s a top 10 back next year as he continues to get more work. Only ways I see him regressing are if he gets hurt (always a risk) or if they bring in another RB… but on the latter they have much bigger holes to fill with limited $’s than RB.

[Anteaters]

I voted no, but after he helped lead me to a championship I am now a full-on Pacheco-head.

[MacDaddy123]

I voted no, but I now believe.
I did have Pacheco on my team in a championship game, but it was not enough to make up for poor outings by AJ Brown and Ja'Marr Chase, could throw Tyreek Hill in there too.

I got 30 points combined between those 3 WR's my opponent had Davante Adams, who posted 37.6 points all by himself.
His Kyren offset my Pacheco.

[StripesOfKC]

I mean if you drafted him or added him then he was a hit by like halfway through his rookie year

This year has just been gravy

But I do think it is time to hop off. Chiefs have two FAs at the position in Mckinnon and CEH. It is almost certain someone is being brought in who is more notable than them

[Shoreline Steamers]

I mean if you drafted him or added him then he was a hit by like halfway through his rookie year

This year has just been gravy

But I do think it is time to hop off. Chiefs have two FAs at the position in Mckinnon and CEH. It is almost certain someone is being brought in who is more notable than them

Not to give you a hard time Stripes, because I do agree that the Chiefs will undoubtedly be adding at RB this offseason. But to be frank, they haven't exactly been nailing their acquisitions at the skill positions of late. Pacheco has backed it up after his rookie season, and Rice appears to have a promising future. But other than that?

I guess my point is, we'll see how much of a threat Pacheco faces once we know who he's competing with. My main concern with him isn't necessarily competition, but his reckless playing style. It's a blessing and a curse. Generally leads to good stats, but subjects him to missed time.

[StripesOfKC]

I mean if you drafted him or added him then he was a hit by like halfway through his rookie year

This year has just been gravy

But I do think it is time to hop off. Chiefs have two FAs at the position in Mckinnon and CEH. It is almost certain someone is being brought in who is more notable than them

Not to give you a hard time Stripes, because I do agree that the Chiefs will undoubtedly be adding at RB this offseason. But to be frank, they haven't exactly been nailing their acquisitions at the skill positions of late. Pacheco has backed it up after his rookie season, and Rice appears to have a promising future. But other than that?

I guess my point is, we'll see how much of a threat Pacheco faces once we know who he's competing with. My main concern with him isn't necessarily competition, but his reckless playing style. It's a blessing and a curse. Generally leads to good stats, but subjects him to missed time.

I don't think it'll be a draft pick. I meant more a veteran RB in the Donta Foreman/Gus Edwards/Kareem Hunt mold

Also if we are counting FAs Juju was a major contributor to a Super Bowl win as was Jerick Mckinnon. Not the stars carrying the team of course but for the cost (Mckinnon especially) no one is unhappy

Pacheco complete took over Mckinnon's role this year though...to his credit

[moishetreats]

From Weeks 1-11, when Pacheco, McKinnon, and CEH all played every game (except for CEH in Week 9), Pacheco played between 42%-68% of the snaps in each game (the most of any KC RB in each game). By average points per game, he was a back-end RB2. Not bad, not great. The data shows a player with high usage who was also catching more passes -- very promising. But he wasn't yet dominating snap share.

In Weeks 12-13 and 16-17 (Pacheco missed Weeks 14-15) with McKinnon out, Pacheco's snap share was 78%, 70%, 57%, 93%. Over those games, he was PPR overall RB3 (give or take depending on scoring system).

In the event that KC does bring in another RB (or two), I think we've seen Pacheco's floor -- weeks 1-11. And that's not bad at all. In the event that KC consolodates some of the playing time -- in particular, with Pacheco getting more receptions -- we've seen his ceiling.

I can't imagine KC being big bidders in free agency. They certainly might take an RB in the early rounds to compliment / compete with Pacheco, and that's a real concern with just about every RB in the NFL. If your philosophy is to always trade away RBs when they have real value because of their fluidiity and uncertainty, then this is an AMAZING time to sell Pacheco.

But, if you're selling because you think he's a reasonable bust candidate, I'm simply not seeing it. We've seen his floor -- and it's pretty high. We've also seen his ceiling -- and it's pretty high, too.

[gmoftheyear]

Got Pacheco in the draft this year and has been real pleased this year and what his potential could be

[murphysxm]

I missed completely on this guy. Thought his lack of vision would be too large of a hurdle. Apparently running like the Tasmanian Devil can overcome that. KC will bring somebody else in, but he's not going anywhere.

[Multiple Scorgasms]

They're obviously adding a RB but no way it'll be anyone who takes significant work from Pach. He'd have to outright lose the job through poor performance and so far he's shown nothing to thibk that likely.

The bigger concern would be if they add a bunch at WR and want to refocus themselves as a dominant passing attack, and his touches suffer and/or become hit and miss week to week.

[Ruggenater]

They're obviously adding a RB but no way it'll be anyone who takes significant work from Pach. He'd have to outright lose the job through poor performance and so far he's shown nothing to thibk that likely.

The bigger concern would be if they add a bunch at WR and want to refocus themselves as a dominant passing attack, and his touches suffer and/or become hit and miss week to week.

KC was among the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL this year. The risk is fairly low that it’d shift even further from the NFL average and affect rush attempts materially.

[Shcritters]

I missed completely on this guy. Thought his lack of vision would be too large of a hurdle. Apparently running like the Tasmanian Devil can overcome that. KC will bring somebody else in, but he's not going anywhere.

Running like a Tasmanian Devil - I like it

[kmbryant09]

Count me out on Pacheco still at current value, though I definitely didn't think he'd make it through the 2024 season this healthy & productive.

I just think a large reason for that is he was competing with CEH (who will be out of the NFL soon in all likelihood) & a banged up Jerick McKinnon (who will also be out of the league soon because of age) for snaps in an offense that has historically produced elite RB production.

KC may not be in the premium RB market this off-season, although I do think they will consider the right opportunity, but I still see Pacheco as a JAG and I'd happily invest in any of the RB's (Cook / Spears / Jacobs / Javonte / Pollard) or WR's (Rice / Pickens / Adams / Kupp) at a similar price point.

[Jigga94]

Count me out on Pacheco still at current value, though I definitely didn't think he'd make it through the 2024 season this healthy & productive.

I just think a large reason for that is he was competing with CEH (who will be out of the NFL soon in all likelihood) & a banged up Jerick McKinnon (who will also be out of the league soon because of age) for snaps in an offense that has historically produced elite RB production.

KC may not be in the premium RB market this off-season, although I do think they will consider the right opportunity, but I still see Pacheco as a JAG and I'd happily invest in any of the RB's (Cook / Spears / Jacobs / Javonte / Pollard) or WR's (Rice / Pickens / Adams / Kupp) at a similar price point.

You had me until you said JAG

[kmbryant09]

Count me out on Pacheco still at current value, though I definitely didn't think he'd make it through the 2024 season this healthy & productive.

I just think a large reason for that is he was competing with CEH (who will be out of the NFL soon in all likelihood) & a banged up Jerick McKinnon (who will also be out of the league soon because of age) for snaps in an offense that has historically produced elite RB production.

KC may not be in the premium RB market this off-season, although I do think they will consider the right opportunity, but I still see Pacheco as a JAG and I'd happily invest in any of the RB's (Cook / Spears / Jacobs / Javonte / Pollard) or WR's (Rice / Pickens / Adams / Kupp) at a similar price point.

You had me until you said JAG

If you told me that Running Back <insert first name> <insert last name> was being given 15 carries per game and 4 targets per game in the Andy Reid offense with Patrick Mahomes at QB, and he was RB #13 in fantasy with 900 rushing yards and 240 receiving yards on the entire season - and then you asked me to make a list of RBs in the NFL that could currently accomplish those stats with that opportunity / situation?

My list would probably have 50 names on it. To me that's the definition of a JAG at the RB position. Not to derail the argument, but to quickly sum it up: the RB position is unique in my opinion. I'm of the belief that only the top 5 - 10 guys (varies year to year) are worth investing into as football players that make ENOUGH of a difference on the football field. Then there's about 40 guys with slightly varying levels of athleticism, vision, skillsets, etc. that can keep an offense functioning and handle a typical RB workload while not adding a ton of production over expectation but while also not vomiting on themselves - which makes RB #11 a horrible player to invest $$ into and probably makes RB #50 a worthy relative investment. Hope I explained my personal opinion clearly enough there!

Pacheco runs hard. He's a crowd favorite. He's overcome long odds and has already had a more significant career in the NFL than most people thought. But do we really think he's in that first category of guys? That he's some difference maker at the position? Adding value beyond an average / dependable RB? Playing like a top15-20 RB in the NFL? That he wouldn't get out-played by a day-1 or day-2 RB in the near future (not named CEH post injuries) or a Free Agent addition like Jacobs or Henry or Barkley?

KC may not, and probably shouldn't, spend significant draft/cap resources on replacing Pacheco. But they absolutely will do something. And I just think the odds of Pacheco continuing to play head & shoulders above the rest of the RB room to this extent (warranting such a workload) plummets dramatically when the other names in that RB room aren't CEH and a 31-year-old injured Jerick McKinnon.

So if I can turn that replaceable (but likeable!) RB on my roster into a more proven or stable option, I'm cashing out. And I understand there are similar arguments & risks with the RBs I listed in my original post (Cook / Spears / Jacobs / Javonte / Pollard), I do feel more confident in those guys based on a combination of draft capital, perceived job security, upside, & talent.