Isaiah Spiller to the LAC Chargers: 2nd Round Rookie Gem or future JAG?

[mild]

I laid out the Bull Case for Spiller over in the Team Advice section today, and thought it was good enough to warrant re-bumping in the Spiller thread in... here... except... we don't have one?! Imagine my surprise! Breece Hall has TWO whole threads to himself AND a third going head to head with Kenneth Walker (our presumptive/debatable RB2 in the class) - needless to say, I couldn't miss this chance to create what I'm sure will be well reasoned, not-at-all controversial thread full of great, articulate, well thought out posts discussing our lad Spiller.

So alright, I'll lay it out. I can't be the only one seeing all of the below and thinking "this is probably worth a shot for an RB with SOME skill, a little talent, and some well-documented Athletic Drawbacks, attached to Justin Herbert and that offense for the next 4 years"... right?

The Isaiah Spiller Bull Case:

- productive SEC back with 3x consecutive 1100+ scrim. yard seasons. Literally always produced. I love players that were always good.
- 6'1, 215lbs - within the realm of Prototype workhorse size, likely best bet at the GL for LAC in '22.
- Hasn't turned 21 yet.
- Has already been called the presumptive #2 back for '22 by the LAC Beat Writers, based on the weak competition on the depth chart and what they saw at OTA's.
- Has a 3 Down Skillset and is one of the better Pass Protectors in this Class partly thanks to playing in a Pro-Style offense at A&M under Jimbo Fisher.
- IS ATTACHED TO JUSTIN HERBERT FOR FOUR YEARS
- Is running behind a Top 12 (10?) OL that has had a lot of talent infusion the last 3 years.
- Could capture the Goal Line Big Back role right away for what was the 3rd Highest Scoring Offense in 2021.
- Is one medium-to-serious injury away from a potential fantasy Value Spike, league winning upside if he is the starter.
- Is playing behind Ekeler - a 27 year old 5'10 200lb Skill Back who has literally never played a full season of games, and just played (by far) his highest touch season in the Pros. (And openly complained about it)

I caps locked the one that we should care about the most. The fact that a year ago people considered Spiller as a potential for RB1 in this class tells you he's been solid through his career; his production has been a known quantity all three years at A&M. He only got dived ADP wise once we did the underwear olympics - and he was reportedly "hurt" whilst doing so. I know, I know, you don't believe that narrative, face saving, ok. Fine. If this somehow turns out to be the Chargers RB to own, though... and the buy-in price was depressed down to a random 2nd... and that was the only thing that stopped you drafting him? You'd feel bad, right?

It's fine to say his profile is bad athletically, but I personally disagree that he's a JAG. He has some proper "phone box" wiggle, and can force a lot of missed tackles this way by taking good angles of attack. That's all over the tape imo. He's not a home run hitter, but he doesn't have to be. If you think of him as a James Connor type athletically, I think that's pretty spot on - bigger back, 4.6 40, soft hands, can snowplow at the line, and has just enough shake to get extra yards and through contact.

That skillset was enough to make Connor the fantasy RB5 last year on only the 8th highest scoring offense with the Cardinals - and he did that without even having the backfield to himself until halfway through the season. I can't be the only one seeing the immense potential here if Spiller gets any kind of foothold.

I know one thing: he's definitely going to vulture some Austin Ekeler goal line TD's starting immediately in '22.

[FantasyFreak]

I may have commented on that thread in team advice. I've seen him as a very average looking player through the entire process. His athleticism and draft capital just sort of confirm my early thoughts on this player, when I started looking a year ahead on the draft class. He might get some TD's by the goal line, but he has to be on the active game day roster first. Let's see if that happens. A 4th round pick is guaranteed nothing. Just ask all the Hakeem Butler truthers. Playing in shorts and beat writers don't really mean a lot to me. These are the same guys that were going gaga over Joshua Kelley, a few years ago, around the same time.

I've always thought the people talking him up as a potential RB1 had issues with their TV screen. Honestly never got the hype. Looks like a very average football player to me, and will need everything to fall his way to ever be a real producer. He'll need a lot of volume, and I just don't think he'll ever be the best RB on that roster. He's attached to Herbert for as long as he's on the roster, I might add, not 4 years. Just saying, there are no guarantees players (ESPECIALLY day 3 guys) last their rookie deal, and that's not specific to Spiller.

Now at a certain price point, sure, I'll take him. People were talking about 1.09 in a Superflex, in the thread I mentioned, and that's just really poor process to consider drafting him there, based on historical data.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

Marshall Faulk called him the best rb in the class if he landed on the right team. And he certainly landed on the right team.

I've seen many people draft him in the 1st round. Too high for my liking as those 1st round wrs all look great and will see volume straight away.

[mild]

He's attached to Herbert for as long as he's on the roster, I might add, not 4 years. Just saying, there are no guarantees players (ESPECIALLY day 3 guys) last their rookie deal, and that's not specific to Spiller.

Now at a certain price point, sure, I'll take him. People were talking about 1.09 in a Superflex, in the thread I mentioned, and that's just really poor process to consider drafting him there, based on historical data.

His ADP is the mid-to-late 2nd round currently (in SF - around the QB's usually) - I think we can safely discuss him at that value point. I got him at 2.08, which I personally loved. I didn't want to write anything glowing about him publicly 'til post our draft; and now here we are.

Counterpoint to your well-actually re. 4 years - the Chargers just kept the definition of "a middling talent at running back" all 4 years in Justin Jackson, and then released him. He doesn't -have- to capture "the" role to stay on the roster as depth.

Obviously, I am laying out the bull case, and thus the path for success, though. That would imply staying on the roster. "Being cut some day in the future" is a danger to any player, and goes without saying whenever we draft in rookie drafts - but for the talent versus the price, and where they got him, and what it's going to cost them Salary wise - I could see him hanging around on this roster given the role they have drafted him to fill for at least the first 3 of those years - easily.

[FantasyFreak]

Marshall Faulk called him the best rb in the class if he landed on the right team. And he certainly landed on the right team.

I've seen many people draft him in the 1st round. Too high for my liking as those 1st round wrs all look great and will see volume straight away.

MJD has said a lot of things about RB's that just aren't very accurate. Being a great RB doesn't mean you can scout college backs. Curious what he meant by that, because if he's talking about scheme etc., we don't actually know if it's the right team for whatever Faulk was talking about. I don't know how anybody could see him in the same vein as Hall or Walker. He's just got such a low ceiling, devoid of a ton of volume. He's simply not an explosive player at all.

I've seen him go in the first too, and it's too early IMO (SF drafts). I agree with that. Historically, his profile vs some of the guys you'd be passing on makes it a low percentage play. Like, taking him over a guy like Dotson, which I have seen, for instance. Not saying it can't work, just that the percentage of chance it has of working is quite low.

[FantasyFreak]

He's attached to Herbert for as long as he's on the roster, I might add, not 4 years. Just saying, there are no guarantees players (ESPECIALLY day 3 guys) last their rookie deal, and that's not specific to Spiller.

Now at a certain price point, sure, I'll take him. People were talking about 1.09 in a Superflex, in the thread I mentioned, and that's just really poor process to consider drafting him there, based on historical data.

His ADP is the mid-to-late 2nd round currently (in SF - around the QB's usually) - I think we can safely discuss him at that value point. I got him at 2.08, which I personally loved. I didn't want to write anything glowing about him publicly 'til post our draft; and now here we are.

Counterpoint to your well-actually re. 4 years - the Chargers just kept the definition of "a middling talent at running back" all 4 years in Justin Jackson, and then released him. He doesn't -have- to capture "the" role to stay on the roster as depth.

Obviously, I am laying out the bull case, and thus the path for success, though. That would imply staying on the roster. "Being cut some day in the future" is a danger to any player, and goes without saying whenever we draft in rookie drafts - but for the talent versus the price, and where they got him, and what it's going to cost them Salary wise - I could see him hanging around on this roster given the role they have drafted him to fill for at least the first 3 of those years - easily.

For sure. 2.08 is a very acceptable place to get him, IMO. I just don't think he was very good, in relation to the rest of his teammates at A and M, and also, he didn't really win the job as a freshman, he was thrust into it out of necessity, due to an injury to Trayveon, if I am not mistaken. I am not saying he's "bad", just that he's nothing special. He's an average RB. He can catch, and has some size, which makes him average, rather than bad, because his athleticism is atrocious for the position, relative to the field in the NFL.

[Anteaters]

The Isaiah Spiller Bull Case:

- productive SEC back with 3x consecutive 1100+ scrim. yard seasons. Literally always produced. I love players that were always good.
- 6'1, 215lbs - within the realm of Prototype workhorse size, likely best bet at the GL for LAC in '22.
- Hasn't turned 21 yet.
- Has already been called the presumptive #2 back for '22 by the LAC Beat Writers, based on the weak competition on the depth chart and what they saw at OTA's.
- Has a 3 Down Skillset and is one of the better Pass Protectors in this Class partly thanks to playing in a Pro-Style offense at A&M under Jimbo Fisher.
- IS ATTACHED TO JUSTIN HERBERT FOR FOUR YEARS
- Is running behind a Top 12 (10?) OL that has had a lot of talent infusion the last 3 years.
- Could capture the Goal Line Big Back role right away for what was the 3rd Highest Scoring Offense in 2021.
- Is one medium-to-serious injury away from a potential fantasy Value Spike, league winning upside if he is the starter.
- Is playing behind Ekeler - a 27 year old 5'10 200lb Skill Back who has literally never played a full season of games, and just played (by far) his highest touch season in the Pros. (And openly complained about it)

It's about time Spiller got his own thread. It always seemed an odd overlook to me, when it seems 10 rookie WRs and other assorted rookies have their own threads. Then again, maybe that speaks more to the overall lack of enthusiasm for Spiller.

As someone pondering a Spiller addition (in this thread) you're making it very hard for me to continue to hold off on the acquisition. Every time I think about this, I wonder if I'm the only one who thinks Spiller is destined to be the RB1 in LA ... and maybe put up some decent numbers as the-first-guy-off-the-bench this season. I know I'm not, but it's obvious not many people agree.

Thanks ... and I mean that in a good way.

[Anteaters]

his profile vs some of the guys you'd be passing on makes it a low percentage play. Like, taking him over a guy like Dotson, which I have seen, for instance. Not saying it can't work, just that the percentage of chance it has of working is quite low.

I don't disagree with this point in theory. But with the specific example of Dotson, I don't think it's a bad gamble at all.

Dotson is the epitome of an at-the-turn (1.09-2.05 in 1qb) dart throw. Best case scenario for Dotson is that he becomes the #2WR on a team with middling passing game numbers, and he's stuck with a QB on his third team in three years, on a team playing its 5th "starting" QB in 5 seasons, a team also in all sorts of dysfunction. And even if he hits that best case scenario, he projects to be a fantasy low end WR3 behind Terry. We all know Dotson will be cut bait in fantasy if he doesn't hit that best case scenario.

OTOH, if Spiller stumbles and manages to only squeeze out a short-yardage RBBC role in LA, that will make him playable on many fantasy teams. To me that means Spiller can have value without hitting his best case, while Dotson can only be barely useful by hitting his best case. And of course, if Spiller hits his bcscenario his managers will have an outstanding ROI. With these sort of two risks being on the table, I think it's a coin flip decision, personal preference type of decision. I don't think it's a bad decision to take Spiller over Dotson, or necessarily vice versa.

FWIW, I like Dotson as a prospect. I'd consider him an closer value (value being how I predict his future production, not how the fantasy community feels about him) comp to a RB prospect like Cook and the others.

[FantasyFreak]

his profile vs some of the guys you'd be passing on makes it a low percentage play. Like, taking him over a guy like Dotson, which I have seen, for instance. Not saying it can't work, just that the percentage of chance it has of working is quite low.

I don't disagree with this point in theory. But with the specific example of Dotson, I don't think it's a bad gamble at all.

Dotson is the epitome of an at-the-turn (1.09-2.05 in 1qb) dart throw. Best case scenario for Dotson is that he becomes the #2WR on a team with middling passing game numbers, and he's stuck with a QB on his third team in three years, on a team playing its 5th "starting" QB in 5 seasons, a team also in all sorts of dysfunction. And even if he hits that best case scenario, he projects to be a fantasy low end WR3 behind Terry. We all know Dotson will be cut bait in fantasy if he doesn't hit that best case scenario.

OTOH, if Spiller stumbles and manages to only squeeze out a short-yardage RBBC role in LA, that will make him playable on many fantasy teams. To me that means Spiller can have value without hitting his best case, while Dotson can only be barely useful by hitting his best case. And of course, if Spiller hits his bcscenario his managers will have an outstanding ROI. With these sort of two risks being on the table, I think it's a coin flip decision, personal preference type of decision. I don't think it's a bad decision to take Spiller over Dotson, or necessarily vice versa.

FWIW, I like Dotson as a prospect. I'd consider him an closer value (value being how I predict his future production, not how the fantasy community feels about him) comp to a RB prospect like Cook and the others.

These dart throws, by the numbers, aren't the same. One is a dart throw looking straight at the dartboard, the other is one facing the other way, standing on one leg. Not saying they are the same player, but people dropped AJB because of landing spot. Drafting players based on presumed situation in their rookie year isn't a great idea IMO.

I do disagree with you on this. I do think it's a bad decision to take Spiller over Dotson. To me, Dotson is the much better football player, with draft capital to keep him in the league getting chance after chance, at a position of longevity and more stability. I just don't see a long timeline where Spiller would ever be the best RB on his roster, because if he was, that would be a glaring need for the team to address.

[Jigga94]

I can definitely see the case FOR Spiller and in a weak RB class like this, I'm a little surprised he has fallen so far. Pretty much everything on paper pre-combine looked like he'd be a hit. I'm not saying 40 speed is everything for RB, but athleticism is very important so that combine was going to hurt him regardless. Probably should've just sat out. The film doesn't do him a ton of favors imo either.

So we had a polarizing prospect even pre-draft. I assume if he had gone day 2, we would be looking at a late 1st round ADP (probably in the Cook range). We might have been able to overlook some flaws if the NFL did... But now he gets day 3 capital and it seems like everyone is letting him fall, again. So I've been really torn on this player. RB5 behind White and Cook, but theres a lot of WR I'm taking before Spiller (at least 9). There's a few other RB in the mix with Spiller but I still prefer him to the TDP, BROB, Pierce, etc.

He's a mid 2nd for me and I'm not sure I will get to take him anywhere because someone else will for sure be higher on him

[Orenthal Shames]

Don't mind the player, but somebody usually likes him more than I do. He went 13th overall in our league.

[Bronco Billy]

Apparently FFers are learning after getting burned being so high on Sermon last year. Spiller is a terrible athlete. His playerprofiler comp is TJ Yeldon, his burst and explosiveness is turtle- like, and his RAS is between 5.61 and 5.71 depending on the source. This is for a 215 lb RB over his 6’ height. He’s not an overwhelmingly big guy.

You watch him run and it’s readily apparent how long it takes him to get to top speed, and watching him change directions is painful. He requires several steps and comes to a complete stop when he cuts to go a different direction. In the NFL that’s where the D will swarm him and put him on the bottom of the dogpile. He also has questionable ball security that needs cleaning up.

His saving grace is that he catches very nicely, but with that lack of athleticism I’m not sure he can get open in adequate time to make a serious impact. Like Sermon, he is a slow and unathletic RB who benefitted from an Oline that blew open major holes for him and he had enough size to succeed at the college level. He’s the type of player who looks very likely to be overmatched at the pro level.

You want the next edition of Yeldon or Sermon, have at it. I’ve got my eyes on other more NFL capable RBs who I can draft later, sometimes much later. Less risk with much higher upside guys who have NFL traits.

[Anteaters]

These dart throws, by the numbers, aren't the same. One is a dart throw looking straight at the dartboard, the other is one facing the other way, standing on one leg. Not saying they are the same player, but people dropped AJB because of landing spot. Drafting players based on presumed situation in their rookie year isn't a great idea IMO.

I don't know who is right or wrong and only time will tell us, but I know that at this point, more fantasy managers agree with you than me. At least if we go by ADP and other such indicators.

[FantasyFreak]

These dart throws, by the numbers, aren't the same. One is a dart throw looking straight at the dartboard, the other is one facing the other way, standing on one leg. Not saying they are the same player, but people dropped AJB because of landing spot. Drafting players based on presumed situation in their rookie year isn't a great idea IMO.

I don't know who is right or wrong and only time will tell us, but I know that at this point, more fantasy managers agree with you than me. At least if we go by ADP and other such indicators.

I'm talking about metrics/analytics combined with draft capital, for the most part, here. Doesn't mean Spiller can't be the better FF player, just that the odds are lower.

[ericanadian]

I may have commented on that thread in team advice. I've seen him as a very average looking player through the entire process. His athleticism and draft capital just sort of confirm my early thoughts on this player, when I started looking a year ahead on the draft class. He might get some TD's by the goal line, but he has to be on the active game day roster first. Let's see if that happens. A 4th round pick is guaranteed nothing. Just ask all the Hakeem Butler truthers. Playing in shorts and beat writers don't really mean a lot to me. These are the same guys that were going gaga over Joshua Kelley, a few years ago, around the same time.

I've always thought the people talking him up as a potential RB1 had issues with their TV screen. Honestly never got the hype. Looks like a very average football player to me, and will need everything to fall his way to ever be a real producer. He'll need a lot of volume, and I just don't think he'll ever be the best RB on that roster. He's attached to Herbert for as long as he's on the roster, I might add, not 4 years. Just saying, there are no guarantees players (ESPECIALLY day 3 guys) last their rookie deal, and that's not specific to Spiller.

Now at a certain price point, sure, I'll take him. People were talking about 1.09 in a Superflex, in the thread I mentioned, and that's just really poor process to consider drafting him there, based on historical data.

A 4th round pick almost always makes the roster. I can’t think of one guy in the 2021 class who is not still rostered on the team that drafted them. The vast majority of the 2020 guys are still rostered by the team that drafted them. It certainly doesn’t guarantee Spiller the number two role, but even that wouldn’t be an unreasonable expectation with Stevenson, Hubbard & Carter all basically walking into a number two role last year and all but Stevenson getting significant playing time as the lead back.

Now, the Jets brought in Breece Hall, the Panthers brought in D’onta Foreman and even the Patriots drafted two RBs, so its very possible that these mild success stories are also short lived and the track record for 4th round backs is not a good one. It’s usually where the guys can look like stars if you squint, but have a major deficiency that always leaves teams wanting more from the position. Spiller’s speed seems like it could easily be that major defiiciency. I think there is a possibility that teams are continuing to devalue running backs and we may be seeing that 3rd round cut off extend a bit and maybe we’ll see a better success rate out of the 4th round.

I like Spiller and grabbed him at the 1.17, but like you were saying, there is a big gap between wanting to take him ahead of guys like Rachaad White, John Metchie or Kenny Pickett and taking him over guys like Dotson. I had Metchie ranked ahead of Spiller, but needed RB more than WR, so I’m already nervous about that one.