Garrett Wilson is my WR1 in this class and it’s not that close for me… am I crazy??

[Anteaters]

MY ONLY POINT IS THAT GARRETT IS GETTING MORE LOVE THAN HE SHOULD AND OLAVE IS CLEARLY NOT.

I dunno, there's two leagues I can't pry Olave off his teams and the startup I just did I ended up buying Olave as the 5th highest WR because everyone wanted him.

kTC has them a late 2nd apart in SF.

KTC also has GWilson as more valuable than Lamb and Amon, and at WR3 overall which I find preposterous. Over the past year, I've learned to not hate KTC but some of its crowdsourced logic doesn't always make sense.

I think, by its nature/design, KTC attracts a lot of rabid (in a good way) very reactionary users prone to recency bias, and always chasing the bright new shiny thing. But I think we all have to separate the fanboy enthusiasm for a player from the actual critical judgement of his production potential compared to other players.

Garrett Wilson has not proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he is now the third best dynasty WR. He hasn't proven he's better (and in a better situation) than Waddle, Olave, AJB or five other WRs. At this point, he's simply proven he's very very good, like almost every other T20WR. I need to see more to determine he's overall WR3 and not overall WR12 or even lower.

And I'm excited to see what he does. But I need to see more.

[81-]

I have seen this game before. GW has all the tools and opportunity to reach your hopes, but trading for his absolute peak is poor dynasty managing. This guy will likely finish about WR 16 and you will be disappointed. Buy him next year when the the expectations aren't unrealistic. I bought Olave for a 2.01 this year. I feel like I stole him. Sure as heck not spending a top 3 pick for GW.

Wow. That's crazy

[CGW]

MY ONLY POINT IS THAT GARRETT IS GETTING MORE LOVE THAN HE SHOULD AND OLAVE IS CLEARLY NOT.

I dunno, there's two leagues I can't pry Olave off his teams and the startup I just did I ended up buying Olave as the 5th highest WR because everyone wanted him.

kTC has them a late 2nd apart in SF.

KTC also has GWilson as more valuable than Lamb and Amon, and at WR3 overall which I find preposterous. Over the past year, I've learned to not hate KTC but some of its crowdsourced logic doesn't always make sense.

Completely agree, but it does give an idea of how people see him. Personally, I do have him over ARSB, but not Lamb. Love ARSB and have him in quite a few leagues, but love GWs outside playmaking ability and think he has more end zone ability.

Whole point was that these guys are both valued highly, and should be.

[mild]

I dunno, there's two leagues I can't pry Olave off his teams and the startup I just did I ended up buying Olave as the 5th highest WR because everyone wanted him.

kTC has them a late 2nd apart in SF.

Same over here. I've tried all manner of offers on Olave for a LOT more than the 2.01.

Positing Olave as worth an early 2nd doesn't really help anyone. It's nice that it happened to someone... aaaaand we can move on.

Weird that we've got an impassioned Chris Olave defense paired with a "Garrett Wilson is overpriced!" paired with a "I paid a 2nd for Olave" post all happening in the Garrett Wilson thread, but I guess things get kinda nutty this time of year. We're ready for football.

Especially when Garrett Wilson is out here looking connected to Rodgers like this.

At this point, health is truly my only concern for this duo.

[BabyChark23]

Garrett Wilson has not proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he is now the third best dynasty WR.

Yet…

[FantasyFreak]

Garrett Wilson has not proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he is now the third best dynasty WR.

Yet…

I mean, Lamb has IMO as of now. I wasn't sold on Lamb early on, but am now. I think Wilson has a good chance to be in the top tier with Chase and JJ by seasons end, he has every opportunity to.

[MacDaddy123]

MY ONLY POINT IS THAT GARRETT IS GETTING MORE LOVE THAN HE SHOULD AND OLAVE IS CLEARLY NOT.

I dunno, there's two leagues I can't pry Olave off his teams and the startup I just did I ended up buying Olave as the 5th highest WR because everyone wanted him.

kTC has them a late 2nd apart in SF.

KTC also has GWilson as more valuable than Lamb and Amon, and at WR3 overall which I find preposterous. Over the past year, I've learned to not hate KTC but some of its crowdsourced logic doesn't always make sense.

I think, by its nature/design, KTC attracts a lot of rabid (in a good way) very reactionary users prone to recency bias, and always chasing the bright new shiny thing. But I think we all have to separate the fanboy enthusiasm for a player from the actual critical judgement of his production potential compared to other players.

Garrett Wilson has not proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he is now the third best dynasty WR. He hasn't proven he's better (and in a better situation) than Waddle, Olave, AJB or five other WRs. At this point, he's simply proven he's very very good, like almost every other T20WR. I need to see more to determine he's overall WR3 and not overall WR12 or even lower.

And I'm excited to see what he does. But I need to see more.

I realized late in 2021 how far off KTC's values are.
I only use the site to my advantage, to know where my rankings disagree with KTC rankings.

I have found that increasingly difficult, as it seems each month more and more people start to realize how out of whack the KTC rankings are.

Seems like the community bases 80% of value on perceived future value, and only about 20% on actual production.

It seems as if the community simply wants to will another WR into the JJ/Chase tier, instead of just waiting for it to happen naturally.

JJ and Chase each averaged over 17 PPG in Full PPR as rookies.
If a rookie WR gets near 13 PPG now, they want to will them into the JJ/Chase tier.

Most of the guys I play with aren't buying the hype.
Like others have said here, if you are buying now, you are buying at the ceiling.
I. and most of my league-mates, are not prone to buying high.

[lukkynumber13]

To be fair, not a start up. He is getting forgotten in the GW wave. Was a 12 team standard league. I did not make the initial offer and it was given to me. It is a pretty hard core league I have been in for years, AR was on the clock and he wanted to bite. My WHOLE point is GW has no value at all, look elsewhere.

So now because you screwed someone over in a trade for Olave means Wilson isn’t going to produce?

Did I enter some kind of FF alternate universe here?

I have been here for a bit. I don't think I push forward bad takes. I accepted a trade I was offered and used it as a counter point to how the community sees GW versus Olave and I am the bad guy? MY ONLY POINT IS THAT GARRETT IS GETTING MORE LOVE THAN HE SHOULD AND OLAVE IS CLEARLY NOT. I was offered the trade.

I get your point, for sure.

I LOVE Wilson, and have him>Olave easily, but I get where you’re coming from.

This is NOT the time to be buying GW. Olave, however, is *generally* being priced at a reasonable tag

[CGW]

Seems like the community bases 80% of value on perceived future value, and only about 20% on actual production.

It seems as if the community simply wants to will another WR into the JJ/Chase tier, instead of just waiting for it to happen naturally.

I think a lot of that is the movement of dynasty players into rebuilding. 10 years ago no1 in my leagues ever tanked to rebuild. Now, theres 4-6 every single season racing to the bottom. What that means is that everyone is buying upside future value because production today means absolutely zilch.

The issue is you cant wait for these guys to produce like a JJ to buy. You have to be in early or you never will be, especially in a rebuild. If you believe in the talent (I had been banging the Wilson and Olave drum since before the NFL draft) and the production matches up, those are the guys to bet on. Buy before they become the elite studs, not after.

[Bronco Billy]

Seems like the community bases 80% of value on perceived future value, and only about 20% on actual production.

It seems as if the community simply wants to will another WR into the JJ/Chase tier, instead of just waiting for it to happen naturally.

I think a lot of that is the movement of dynasty players into rebuilding. 10 years ago no1 in my leagues ever tanked to rebuild. Now, theres 4-6 every single season racing to the bottom. What that means is that everyone is buying upside future value because production today means absolutely zilch.

The issue is you cant wait for these guys to produce like a JJ to buy. You have to be in early or you never will be, especially in a rebuild. If you believe in the talent (I had been banging to Wilson and Olave drum since before the NFL draft) and the production matches up, those are the guys to bet on. Buy before they become the elite studs, not after.

Exactly. If you’re going to wait until these guys “prove it”, you’re behind the curve and way too late. The only way you acquire them then is a significant overpay.

[gogobradyarm]

I’ll put the Jets at 615 pass attempts with Rodgers completing 65% of his passes, which is 400 completions and 38 TDs.

I’m figuring Wilson with 120 receptions (7 per game) at 12.8 ypr for 1536 yds and 12 TDs. That’s based on a 17 game season.

That puts him around WR5/WR6 in a ppr league.

I see that as a ceiling but think he is closer to 100-1300-10 which should put him around WR6-10 range. I guess what i'm getting at is, I wouldn't be surprised to see him on-par/outproduced by a guy like Calvin Ridley who costs almost nothing.

Well, I see Wilson last year catching 6 passes a game when the QB didn’t share his last name, and figuring they now have a QB who will complete a significantly higher percentage of passes than the CF they had last season, it’s not difficult for me to get him to 7 receptions a game. The ypc would be a decrease from what he put up last year.

But if you can get Ridley for almost nothing then do it, but I have no idea why that affects Wilson’s production in any way or why you’d have to choose between the two if they are in fact that far apart in FF value. In other words, how does Ridley have anything to do with the discussion about Wilson?

I'm not the one that said Garrett Wilson's PPG is unreplaceable lol. My point is, you can get Garrett Wilson production for peanuts on the dollar but people see the shiny new toy and think "gotta have it" or "to the moon"

[gogobradyarm]

MY ONLY POINT IS THAT GARRETT IS GETTING MORE LOVE THAN HE SHOULD AND OLAVE IS CLEARLY NOT.

I dunno, there's two leagues I can't pry Olave off his teams and the startup I just did I ended up buying Olave as the 5th highest WR because everyone wanted him.

kTC has them a late 2nd apart in SF.

KTC also has GWilson as more valuable than Lamb and Amon, and at WR3 overall which I find preposterous. Over the past year, I've learned to not hate KTC but some of its crowdsourced logic doesn't always make sense.

I think, by its nature/design, KTC attracts a lot of rabid (in a good way) very reactionary users prone to recency bias, and always chasing the bright new shiny thing. But I think we all have to separate the fanboy enthusiasm for a player from the actual critical judgement of his production potential compared to other players.

Garrett Wilson has not proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he is now the third best dynasty WR. He hasn't proven he's better (and in a better situation) than Waddle, Olave, AJB or five other WRs. At this point, he's simply proven he's very very good, like almost every other T20WR. I need to see more to determine he's overall WR3 and not overall WR12 or even lower.

And I'm excited to see what he does. But I need to see more.

This poster uses logic. Anteaters for president.

[gogobradyarm]

Seems like the community bases 80% of value on perceived future value, and only about 20% on actual production.

It seems as if the community simply wants to will another WR into the JJ/Chase tier, instead of just waiting for it to happen naturally.

I think a lot of that is the movement of dynasty players into rebuilding. 10 years ago no1 in my leagues ever tanked to rebuild. Now, theres 4-6 every single season racing to the bottom. What that means is that everyone is buying upside future value because production today means absolutely zilch.

The issue is you cant wait for these guys to produce like a JJ to buy. You have to be in early or you never will be, especially in a rebuild. If you believe in the talent (I had been banging to Wilson and Olave drum since before the NFL draft) and the production matches up, those are the guys to bet on. Buy before they become the elite studs, not after.

Exactly. If you’re going to wait until these guys “prove it”, you’re behind the curve and way too late. The only way you acquire them then is a significant overpay.

I agree with this and i'll say that I wouldn't buy Garrett Wilson right now, because his value can really only go down, and he hasn't had that 1500-10 season yet. If someone buys now, at KTC prices, they're taking on risk and i'd rather have some other guys. Good conversation in this thread though, even with some funny trades lol

[FantasyFreak]

Seems like the community bases 80% of value on perceived future value, and only about 20% on actual production.

It seems as if the community simply wants to will another WR into the JJ/Chase tier, instead of just waiting for it to happen naturally.

I think a lot of that is the movement of dynasty players into rebuilding. 10 years ago no1 in my leagues ever tanked to rebuild. Now, theres 4-6 every single season racing to the bottom. What that means is that everyone is buying upside future value because production today means absolutely zilch.

The issue is you cant wait for these guys to produce like a JJ to buy. You have to be in early or you never will be, especially in a rebuild. If you believe in the talent (I had been banging to Wilson and Olave drum since before the NFL draft) and the production matches up, those are the guys to bet on. Buy before they become the elite studs, not after.

Exactly. If you’re going to wait until these guys “prove it”, you’re behind the curve and way too late. The only way you acquire them then is a significant overpay.

I think it's really dependent on what the owner is willing to part with them for. Paying a price with the idea they are already elite producers takes on all the risk. Some, a lot, of Wilson owners are already pricing him in the same vicinity as a guy like Chase. So I might as well trade for Chase, if I have to pay about the same price.

As for KTC, I pay zero attention to it. Never even gone on the site. I read up on it, and that was enough to know it doesn't hold any sort of weight on my decision making or valuation of players. I hold no value to it when people reference it for trade values. Same as when people try and sell me on a deal because of a trade calculator.

[mild]

As for KTC, I pay zero attention to it. Never even gone on the site. I read up on it, and that was enough to know it doesn't hold any sort of weight on my decision making or valuation of players. I hold no value to it when people reference it for trade values. Same as when people try and sell me on a deal because of a trade calculator.

It has value as a reflection of group-think. That's a good thing to have a handle on as a trader imo.

It also has historical data, so it's one of the easiest ways to track a players changing value over time.

eg. this time last year Gabe Davis was WR16 and now he's WR48