Jahan Dotson is a value in rookie drafts

[Jigga94]

So I'm curious - what would people pay for him these days in terms of a rookie pick in a 12-team, PPR, 1QB league?

Not much more than where he was being drafted. I'd hold a 1st over him for sure. Rookies are going to have more value come May. I'd trade any 2nd for him though. He seems like a solid WR3. The TD are going to be the key for him. Didn't think he'd be a high TD guy but he has 7 in 11 games. When he doesn't score the TD though, his floor is very low. 3, 0, 2.4, 2.6 and 0 are his outputs in non TD games.

Not a bad WR, but not a high ceiling imo.

Edit: was thinking of SF since that's all I play. Considering 1 QB, I'd pay a late 1st for Dotson. Especially from this class if you are set on taking WR

[remedy29]

I see him as a much more skilled player than a WR3. We cant be using his rookie year production to forecast his career, otherwise we'd have to devalue Treylon Burks a lot.

The TDs are not solely Dotson's game, but certainly a moch added bonus.

I think Dotson is the most skilled WR in Washington now. The things holding him back this year was an injury, coming back to a new QB, 2 other talented WRs on the roster and an average QB, not capable of supporting 3 WRs on a consistent basis.

If both McLaurin and Samuel cone back in 2023, Dotson production will be capped. Come 2024, he is likely to be their WR1.

I'd certainly pay a late 2023 1st for him now. I'd need to see more from the 2023 rookies to consider anything earlier, but maybe. The 2023 class seems overhyped, at least from a depth perspective. So maybe the top 3-4 QBs, 3 RBs and 3 WRs are ahead of him, but come 1.10 and later, I'd be looking to buy Dotson. (which gives me a good idea for my late 2023 1st).

[Anteaters]

He's going to be a good one.

How good? Like a WR3? That's pretty much what I see when I watch him

++

Dotson is talented. I just cannot see a near-future (1-3 years) where his ceiling is ever better than WR3. Playing WR2 on a team as offensively challenged as WAS doesn't scream WR18 to me.

Someone asked why Skyy was/is ranked higher than Dotson. Personally, given the option I'd rather roster Skyy than Dotson, and I'm not a huge Skyy fan. The reason is purely based on situation. Skyy is in a more more prolific and consistent offense. Skyy has a QB thirty-eight times better than in WAS. Sky has an identifiable path to being the WR1 on his NFL team - whether or not he actually gets there, the path is open. None of those are true for Dotson.

I'm not into purposefully acquiring a WR I know will never have a chance to be better than a WR3 for the first 4 years I roster him. I target guys I hope have a quicker path to at least WR2, and then I hope for more. But I'm not targeting a guy in the 1st round that I think is going to sit on my bench for 4 years before he gets a decent (touch/target count) opportunity to shine. I might end up with that guy, but I'm not intentionally targeting a guy with that outlook in the 1st round.

And once we get to this point of his first year, I can say I still appreciate Dotson's talent, but I don't plan to target him for acquisition. If I already have him on my roster, sure I'll hold. But I don't see a path to fantasy usefulness unless TMc suffers a serious injury.

[tstafford]

Dotson will be a target for me during the rookie draft (along with London). Depending on how things break I will likely offer 2023 pick or picks to acquire them vs. drafting this year. My situation is complicated because it is a mixed rookie/devy draft (which sort of changes things) and I am a contender. Judging from the forum I am higher on both Dotson/London than consensus so I'll try to buy!

[Jigga94]

I see him as a much more skilled player than a WR3. We cant be using his rookie year production to forecast his career, otherwise we'd have to devalue Treylon Burks a lot.

The TDs are not solely Dotson's game, but certainly a moch added bonus.

I think Dotson is the most skilled WR in Washington now. The things holding him back this year was an injury, coming back to a new QB, 2 other talented WRs on the roster and an average QB, not capable of supporting 3 WRs on a consistent basis.

If both McLaurin and Samuel cone back in 2023, Dotson production will be capped. Come 2024, he is likely to be their WR1.

I'd certainly pay a late 2023 1st for him now. I'd need to see more from the 2023 rookies to consider anything earlier, but maybe. The 2023 class seems overhyped, at least from a depth perspective. So maybe the top 3-4 QBs, 3 RBs and 3 WRs are ahead of him, but come 1.10 and later, I'd be looking to buy Dotson. (which gives me a good idea for my late 2023 1st).

Rookie numbers are very good indicators though. And I'd say Burks value has fallen a little since being drafted (not that it should have, just saying it has). Most rookies don't live up to the hype. But Dotson is having a fine rookie year. 40+ ypg is solid, but a lot of guys are doing that, so he's not really standing out either.

I included the TD bit because I'm not sold he's going to keep up a pace of 7 TD in 11 games. That's ~11 in a full season. So I'd expect some TD regression there, but he should be able to build on yardage from his rookie year.

I agree he's more talented than Samuel, but he's behind Terry for the long term. Samuel is signed for next year, as is Logan Thomas. It's crowded and QB is a disaster in WAS right now

I see a solid player, but there's A LOT of solid WR2/3s in the league that it doesn't make sense to target any in particular unless they are very cheap. We seem to agree though he's in that late 1st / pay up any 2nd value

[Pullo Vision]

He's going to be a good one.

How good? Like a WR3? That's pretty much what I see when I watch him

++

Dotson is talented. I just cannot see a near-future (1-3 years) where his ceiling is ever better than WR3. Playing WR2 on a team as offensively challenged as WAS doesn't scream WR18 to me.

Someone asked why Skyy was/is ranked higher than Dotson. Personally, given the option I'd rather roster Skyy than Dotson, and I'm not a huge Skyy fan. The reason is purely based on situation. Skyy is in a more more prolific and consistent offense. Skyy has a QB thirty-eight times better than in WAS. Sky has an identifiable path to being the WR1 on his NFL team - whether or not he actually gets there, the path is open. None of those are true for Dotson.

I'm not into purposefully acquiring a WR I know will never have a chance to be better than a WR3 for the first 4 years I roster him. I target guys I hope have a quicker path to at least WR2, and then I hope for more. But I'm not targeting a guy in the 1st round that I think is going to sit on my bench for 4 years before he gets a decent (touch/target count) opportunity to shine. I might end up with that guy, but I'm not intentionally targeting a guy with that outlook in the 1st round.

And once we get to this point of his first year, I can say I still appreciate Dotson's talent, but I don't plan to target him for acquisition. If I already have him on my roster, sure I'll hold. But I don't see a path to fantasy usefulness unless TMc suffers a serious injury.

So this. With McLaurin signing an extension, Dotson is, AT BEST, the team's #2 WR. The current scheme leans hard on the run and doesn't pump Dotson with targets. And that ignores the QB questions. He can't even be confidently started as a WR3 in fantasy and doesn't have a path to up his production floor.

The Skyy comparison is tougher, since Dotson has at least been effective. But, I'd definitely look at what value would be offered to take the dynasty downgrade from Dotson to Moore.

[FantasyFreak]

How good? Like a WR3? That's pretty much what I see when I watch him

++

Dotson is talented. I just cannot see a near-future (1-3 years) where his ceiling is ever better than WR3. Playing WR2 on a team as offensively challenged as WAS doesn't scream WR18 to me.

Someone asked why Skyy was/is ranked higher than Dotson. Personally, given the option I'd rather roster Skyy than Dotson, and I'm not a huge Skyy fan. The reason is purely based on situation. Skyy is in a more more prolific and consistent offense. Skyy has a QB thirty-eight times better than in WAS. Sky has an identifiable path to being the WR1 on his NFL team - whether or not he actually gets there, the path is open. None of those are true for Dotson.

I'm not into purposefully acquiring a WR I know will never have a chance to be better than a WR3 for the first 4 years I roster him. I target guys I hope have a quicker path to at least WR2, and then I hope for more. But I'm not targeting a guy in the 1st round that I think is going to sit on my bench for 4 years before he gets a decent (touch/target count) opportunity to shine. I might end up with that guy, but I'm not intentionally targeting a guy with that outlook in the 1st round.

And once we get to this point of his first year, I can say I still appreciate Dotson's talent, but I don't plan to target him for acquisition. If I already have him on my roster, sure I'll hold. But I don't see a path to fantasy usefulness unless TMc suffers a serious injury.

So this. With McLaurin signing an extension, Dotson is, AT BEST, the team's #2 WR. The current scheme leans hard on the run and doesn't pump Dotson with targets. And that ignores the QB questions. He can't even be confidently started as a WR3 in fantasy and doesn't have a path to up his production floor.

The Skyy comparison is tougher, since Dotson has at least been effective. But, I'd definitely look at what value would be offered to take the dynasty downgrade from Dotson to Moore.

Not necessarily. Dotson has already shown more ability in the red zone, and McLaurin is getting into his late 20's, I can see a shift happening within the next few years.

I don't understand the logic of assuming (not necessarily you, but anybody) that a player who has shown the ability to make big plays and score TD's with his current role, won't be given more opportunities as he develops as a player, since he's shown success being able to do it. Terry is a very good player, but he's not an elite NFL WR. Dotson certainly has a chance to siphon targets, if he continues to progress, show his big play ability, ability to separate and score. He was a Heinecke missed read away from a 2nd TD, and nearly had a long TD on an early pass that he had to adjust to and just lost in the sun, or else he was looking at 150 plus yards and 2 TD's vs the top ranked D.

I'm looking to acquire if people see him, and value him as a WR3, and him being totally capped, because I think the worst you can do is break even if that's the price.

[Anteaters]

I'm looking to acquire if people see him, and value him as a WR3, and him being totally capped, because I think the worst you can do is break even if that's the price.

Out of curiosity, exactly which <28-29yearOld WRs (WR2s and WR1s) would you be comfortable trading away to acquire Dotson? I get the part about being willing to trade other WR3s with no path to being their NFL teams' top WR such as Boyd/JPalmer/Meyers/Hollins. At that point it's kind of like trading like pieces and personal preference.

But would you surrender guys like DJM/Aiyuk/Pittman for Dotson? Would you surrender the 1.07 in 2023? or the 2.01?

Not saying you're wrong (or right) to do so. Just wondering how highly you actually value him. I agree with holding him if you already have him. I agree with acquiring him as a relatively dirt-cheap price. But at some point, we all have an upper limit on where we'd draw the line to acquire. What's your personal line with Dotson?

It's always interesting to me to see where different managers value specific players.

[tstafford]

But would you surrender guys like DJM/Aiyuk/Pittman for Dotson? Would you surrender the 1.07 in 2023? or the 2.01?

It's always interesting to me to see where different managers value specific players.

I'd give the 2.01 for Dotson for sure.

[SoftwoodGrampian]

Early 2

[ericanadian]

I'm looking to acquire if people see him, and value him as a WR3, and him being totally capped, because I think the worst you can do is break even if that's the price.

Out of curiosity, exactly which <28-29yearOld WRs (WR2s and WR1s) would you be comfortable trading away to acquire Dotson? I get the part about being willing to trade other WR3s with no path to being their NFL teams' top WR such as Boyd/JPalmer/Meyers/Hollins. At that point it's kind of like trading like pieces and personal preference.

But would you surrender guys like DJM/Aiyuk/Pittman for Dotson? Would you surrender the 1.07 in 2023? or the 2.01?

Not saying you're wrong (or right) to do so. Just wondering how highly you actually value him. I agree with holding him if you already have him. I agree with acquiring him as a relatively dirt-cheap price. But at some point, we all have an upper limit on where we'd draw the line to acquire. What's your personal line with Dotson?

It's always interesting to me to see where different managers value specific players.

2.01? Like the 13th pick? Yep, probably do that. I’d move Aiyuk, no problem. Pittman seems like a pretty neutral move to me, so probably don’t do it, but it’s pretty comparable value. I like DJ More (yuk yuk), so don’t do that.

[Ice]

.

But would you surrender guys like DJM/Aiyuk/Pittman for Dotson? Would you surrender the 1.07 in 2023? or the 2.01?


It's always interesting to me to see where different managers value specific players.

I would trade any of those assets except 1.7 today to get him.

I might trade 1.7 on draft day for him but would have to study that a bit.

He runs routes like K. Allen.

[j4pac]

Dotson has looked way better than Skyy Moore…was a better college player…and was drafted higher. Really easy choice for me

[StripesOfKC]

He was basically fancy Gabe Davis last year falling into the end zone every third or fourth catch and has been outproduced every week by Curtis Samuel and (when he plays) Logan Thomas this season

Prime evidence for why any rookie who flashes is not all that and it's okay to sell young players at times

[Sriracha]

Dotson and Elijah Moore are prime examples of how overrated 'talented' beta WRs on bad offenses are.

Interestingly, he is drawing opposing defenses #1 Corner while defenses shade safety coverage towards McLaurin; Which is likely why he's (at best) 3rd in production despite being the team's WR2. Still has time to turn things around but if he's looked at like Elijah Moore come 2024 I won't be the least bit surprised.