Jahan Dotson is a value in rookie drafts

[CGW]

It's a shame, Dotson had a solid rookie campaign. Dotson is running a ton of routes, but not earning a ton of targets... Maybe Dotson just isn't that guy, but seems to me like more of a skill mismatch the the QB who won't throw deep targets or outside the numbers. Curious if anyone has a heat map of Howell's attempts vs Heinicke last season.

[Lumps]

It's a shame, Dotson had a solid rookie campaign. Dotson is running a ton of routes, but not earning a ton of targets... Maybe Dotson just isn't that guy, but seems to me like more of a skill mismatch the the QB who won't throw deep targets or outside the numbers. Curious if anyone has a heat map of Howell's attempts vs Heinicke last season.

Didn't he have an inordinate amount of TDs last year? How do his numbers look this year versus last without the TDs?

[Sriracha]

It's a shame, Dotson had a solid rookie campaign. Dotson is running a ton of routes, but not earning a ton of targets... Maybe Dotson just isn't that guy, but seems to me like more of a skill mismatch the the QB who won't throw deep targets or outside the numbers. Curious if anyone has a heat map of Howell's attempts vs Heinicke last season.

Didn't he have an inordinate amount of TDs last year? How do his numbers look this year versus last without the TDs?

He's definitely taken a step back. He's currently at .74 YPRR which is Quentin Johnston levels of bad and only at a 16.8% target rate.
His rookie year was more mediocre than bad with 1.5 YPRR (60th) with a 17.5% target rate (76th)

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Dotson, I still think he can still carve out a respectable career (I comped him to Tyler Boyd coming out of college), but he's been overrated because of his touchdowns his rookie year. His production (in terms of yardage) last year was not as good as people remembered. And for a player of his size, his open score (46) last year was horrific. It was on par with George Pickens (48), who is infamous for his inability to seperate. But Pickens is a tall, contested catch monster, so he can get away with it. Dotson is just about the opposite of that. The fact that people were refusing to trade him for a 2023 1st at the end of last year, and even referring to him as a "stud" September of this year, was and still is mindblowing to me.

7) Pickens and Dotson have terrible open scores compared to their values. Something to monitor.
8) I've been seeing talk that people wouldn't sell Dotson, Burks, Moore, etc for 2023 1st and I think that is really misguided. Based on the available data, I would feel comfortable recommending to sell any of these players for any 1st I could get my hands on (or transitioning to another player, such as Aiyuk as I outlined above). I understand there will probably be a stud or two out of the sub-47 group, but identifying which ones is going to be difficult. The odds are better with a random 1st round WR next year (~30% odds) as opposed to a WR who had a "bust" of a rookie season this year (~2-10% odds).

[Sriracha]

Dotson, I still think he can still carve out a respectable career (I comped him to Tyler Boyd coming out of college), but he's been overrated because of his touchdowns his rookie year. His production (in terms of yardage) last year was not as good as people remembered. And for a player of his size, his open score (46) last year was horrific. It was on par with George Pickens (48), who is infamous for his inability to seperate. But Pickens is a tall, contested catch monster, so he can get away with it. Dotson is just about the opposite of that. The fact that people were refusing to trade him for a 2023 1st at the end of last year, and even referring to him as a "stud" September of this year, was and still is mindblowing to me.

7) Pickens and Dotson have terrible open scores compared to their values. Something to monitor.
8) I've been seeing talk that people wouldn't sell Dotson, Burks, Moore, etc for 2023 1st and I think that is really misguided. Based on the available data, I would feel comfortable recommending to sell any of these players for any 1st I could get my hands on (or transitioning to another player, such as Aiyuk as I outlined above). I understand there will probably be a stud or two out of the sub-47 group, but identifying which ones is going to be difficult. The odds are better with a random 1st round WR next year (~30% odds) as opposed to a WR who had a "bust" of a rookie season this year (~2-10% odds).

Intersting, do you have a link to the open scores of other receivers, as well?

[Cameron Giles]

Intersting, do you have a link to the open scores of other receivers, as well?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nf ... -rankings/

[Sriracha]

[StripesOfKC]

https://twitter.com/Scott7news/status/1 ... bnGCg&s=19

The Commanders new special teams holder

Amazing how some good TD luck can carry a rookie to WR18 or wherever he was this offseason

[81-]

https://twitter.com/Scott7news/status/1 ... bnGCg&s=19

The Commanders new special teams holder

Amazing how some good TD luck can carry a rookie to WR18 or wherever he was this offseason

Gotta be looking at running a fake. Not often you see anyone outside of a backup QB or punter

[FantasyFreak]

https://twitter.com/Scott7news/status/1 ... bnGCg&s=19

The Commanders new special teams holder

Amazing how some good TD luck can carry a rookie to WR18 or wherever he was this offseason

Dotson looked good last year, it wasn't just TD's. This year, it's a mess. He's still better than Skyy Moore. That guy sucks. I bought in, in a few leagues, and boy as I wrong there. There's almost zero hope he turns it around, IMO. Everything he does looks laboured and off. Jahan has the skill set, I think there's something between the ears going on, right now.

[Sriracha]

https://twitter.com/Scott7news/status/1 ... bnGCg&s=19

The Commanders new special teams holder

Amazing how some good TD luck can carry a rookie to WR18 or wherever he was this offseason

Dotson looked good last year, it wasn't just TD's. This year, it's a mess. He's still better than Skyy Moore. That guy sucks. I bought in, in a few leagues, and boy as I wrong there. There's almost zero hope he turns it around, IMO. Everything he does looks laboured and off. Jahan has the skill set, I think there's something between the ears going on, right now.

I hear this a lot; almost exclusively from film guys.

Dotson was a weird player where the film just did not match the metrics.

Apparently he was supposed to be a route running savante.. yet he only commanded a 14.2% target rate (88th).

He only averaged 1.5 YPRR. (60th)

He posted a man route win/rate of only 28.3% (86th)

All of those metrics are bizarre for a supposedly good route runner.

My guess is that this is a good example of how subjective film watching can be. His open score as mentioned earlier (which is similarly a film stat) was also surprisingly low. There's a good chance he's a lot like Elijah Moore or Gabriel Davis in that they are able to vividly embarass bad defenders but struggle vs quality defenders with sound fundamentals. Those guys are solid players in the right situation but they're not going to transcend non-ideal situations.

[FantasyFreak]

https://twitter.com/Scott7news/status/1 ... bnGCg&s=19

The Commanders new special teams holder

Amazing how some good TD luck can carry a rookie to WR18 or wherever he was this offseason

Dotson looked good last year, it wasn't just TD's. This year, it's a mess. He's still better than Skyy Moore. That guy sucks. I bought in, in a few leagues, and boy as I wrong there. There's almost zero hope he turns it around, IMO. Everything he does looks laboured and off. Jahan has the skill set, I think there's something between the ears going on, right now.

I hear this a lot; almost exclusively from film guys.

Dotson was a weird player where the film just did not match the metrics.

Apparently he was supposed to be a route running savante.. yet he only commanded a 14.2% target rate (88th).

He only averaged 1.5 YPRR. (60th)

He posted a man route win/rate of only 28.3% (86th)

All of those metrics are bizarre for a supposedly good route runner.

My guess is that this is a good example of how subjective film watching can be. His open score as mentioned earlier (which is similarly a film stat) was also surprisingly low. There's a good chance he's a lot like Elijah Moore or Gabriel Davis in that they are able to vividly embarass bad defenders but struggle vs quality defenders with sound fundamentals. Those guys are solid players in the right situation but they're not going to transcend non-ideal situations.

IDK what you consider Harmon, almost all metrics like the bolded are based off film, to some degree. Here's his synopsis of his rookie year.

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 7809841357

[Sriracha]

IDK what you consider Harmon, almost all metrics like the bolded are based off film, to some degree. Here's his synopsis of his rookie year.

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 7809841357

I like Harmon a lot but he's basically a film guy.

Dotson is exactly like his biggest misses -- Dante Pettis, Elijah Moore and to a lesser degree Skyy Moore.

There's more subjectivity to his process than he wants to believe.

[FantasyFreak]

IDK what you consider Harmon, almost all metrics like the bolded are based off film, to some degree. Here's his synopsis of his rookie year.

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 7809841357

I like Harmon a lot but he's basically a film guy.

Dotson is exactly like his biggest misses -- Dante Pettis, Elijah Moore and to a lesser degree Skyy Moore.

There's more subjectivity to his process than he wants to believe.

Sure, I won't argue that, but "man win rate" is a "film metric", that's my point. You use that as a metric, but it really isn't. It's based on subjective opinion of someone, like Harmon, determining a "win". Dotson isn't trending in the right direction currently, no argument here on that.

[Sriracha]

IDK what you consider Harmon, almost all metrics like the bolded are based off film, to some degree. Here's his synopsis of his rookie year.

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 7809841357

I like Harmon a lot but he's basically a film guy.

Dotson is exactly like his biggest misses -- Dante Pettis, Elijah Moore and to a lesser degree Skyy Moore.

There's more subjectivity to his process than he wants to believe.

Sure, I won't argue that, but "man win rate" is a "film metric", that's my point. You use that as a metric, but it really isn't. It's based on subjective opinion of someone, like Harmon, determining a "win". Dotson isn't trending in the right direction currently, no argument here on that.

fair. Really just adds more ammo to the uncertainty of these stats.