Jahan Dotson is a value in rookie drafts

[Dynasty DeLorean]

IDK what you consider Harmon, almost all metrics like the bolded are based off film, to some degree. Here's his synopsis of his rookie year.

https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/stat ... 7809841357

I like Harmon a lot but he's basically a film guy.

Dotson is exactly like his biggest misses -- Dante Pettis, Elijah Moore and to a lesser degree Skyy Moore.

There's more subjectivity to his process than he wants to believe.

Sure, I won't argue that, but "man win rate" is a "film metric", that's my point. You use that as a metric, but it really isn't. It's based on subjective opinion of someone, like Harmon, determining a "win". Dotson isn't trending in the right direction currently, no argument here on that.

Hmm, well there is a difference in that man win rate probably accounts for all snaps and Harmons stats are only from a limited sample. So Harmons would in theory be far less reliable. I don't pay for his stuff but that's my understanding anyway.

[FantasyFreak]

I like Harmon a lot but he's basically a film guy.

Dotson is exactly like his biggest misses -- Dante Pettis, Elijah Moore and to a lesser degree Skyy Moore.

There's more subjectivity to his process than he wants to believe.

Sure, I won't argue that, but "man win rate" is a "film metric", that's my point. You use that as a metric, but it really isn't. It's based on subjective opinion of someone, like Harmon, determining a "win". Dotson isn't trending in the right direction currently, no argument here on that.

Hmm, well there is a difference in that man win rate probably accounts for all snaps and Harmons stats are only from a limited sample. So Harmons would in theory be far less reliable. I don't pay for his stuff but that's my understanding anyway.

Well to be fair, "press" and "man" are 2 different things. Or rather "press" is a specific form of "man" coverage, which most would consider the more difficult to beat.

[StripesOfKC]

You know that week 2 game Skyy had against Jacksonville--something like 4-70 and a TD with a bunch of the yards coming on one broken play?

That's basically what Dotson's rookie season was

And yeah obviously he is better than Skyy. But pricing him as a top 20 WR based off that rookie year was basically betting on lightning like that to strike again

I'd still hop off him for Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Tank Dell, Jakobi Meyers, etc. Some of these rookies are pretty much having the kind of season he did without the TD luck (or even better) and can be had for a fraction of what Dotson cost after his rookie campaign because they don't run cool flashy looking routes or whatever Dotson's special appeal was

I can see him get back to WR3 level production but the value will never be what it was this offseason

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Sure, I won't argue that, but "man win rate" is a "film metric", that's my point. You use that as a metric, but it really isn't. It's based on subjective opinion of someone, like Harmon, determining a "win". Dotson isn't trending in the right direction currently, no argument here on that.

Hmm, well there is a difference in that man win rate probably accounts for all snaps and Harmons stats are only from a limited sample. So Harmons would in theory be far less reliable. I don't pay for his stuff but that's my understanding anyway.

Well to be fair, "press" and "man" are 2 different things. Or rather "press" is a specific form of "man" coverage, which most would consider the more difficult to beat.

I don’t really understand what you’re trying to say. the point is Harmon uses a small sample size.

[Cameron Giles]

Harmon's WR tool is pretty solid and informative. Like any other resource, it's a good piece to use in conjunction with others to build great opinions on players.

There are misses, just like there is with any statistical or subjective analysis, but he has way more hits that he's gone to bat for than misses. He was ahead of players like Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, Michael Thomas, Brandon Aiyuk, and Amon-Ra way before it was trendy. He's also poured cold water on quite a few WRs who were hyped. The limitation to his study is obvious, in that he can't literally watch every single snap of a WR throughout the season and there's always going to be some sort of subjectivity to what qualifies as "open".

He's busier now that he works for Yahoo, but if you've followed him over the years before then, he's written some really great, in-depth pieces on WR prospects that combine subjectivity with statistical analysis. He's pretty well-respected around the Fantasy community as well, so he's got credibility when it comes to this lane.

Dotson's an interesting case, because his Open Score on 538 was slightly below average as a rookie, but Harmon graded him high in success rate vs. zone and press. I'm not really sure what to make of his game right now. He's the only Washington pass catcher seeing a high uncatchable target rate for some reason.

[Sriracha]

Harmon's WR tool is pretty solid and informative. Like any other resource, it's a good piece to use in conjunction with others to build great opinions on players.

There are misses, just like there is with any statistical or subjective analysis, but he has way more hits that he's gone to bat for than misses. He was ahead of players like Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, Michael Thomas, Brandon Aiyuk, and Amon-Ra way before it was trendy. He's also poured cold water on quite a few WRs who were hyped. The limitation to his study is obvious, in that he can't literally watch every single snap of a WR throughout the season and there's always going to be some sort of subjectivity to what qualifies as "open".

He's busier now that he works for Yahoo, but if you've followed him over the years before then, he's written some really great, in-depth pieces on WR prospects that combine subjectivity with statistical analysis. He's pretty well-respected around the Fantasy community as well, so he's got credibility when it comes to this lane.

Dotson's an interesting case, because his Open Score on 538 was slightly below average as a rookie, but Harmon graded him high in success rate vs. zone and press. I'm not really sure what to make of his game right now. He's the only Washington pass catcher seeing a high uncatchable target rate for some reason.

Definitely, Reception Perception is a useful tool that is worth using as a piece of the puzzle -- just not as the whole picture... I wasn't trying to disparage him in particular, more so reminding people that even the good film analyst are subject to the biases that we all fight with. I've just encountered too many people elsewhere that treat his reception perception as gospel when he's also had his fair share of whiffs

I'd also argue that the biggest issue is that it doesn't account for how valuable a particular "route win" is; But I suppose that only matters if you're trying to equate a WR's value solely to getting open. While that is very, very important YAC and explosive plays are also big differentiating factors between the solid and elite WRs.

[StripesOfKC]

Just make him holder permanently

[FantasyFreak]

Finally some signs of life.