1.03 offer (poll)

[saw061600]

Give 1.03
Get Michael Thomas, Friermuth, 2023 first

Loving all the discussion, pounding the table, arguments for which WR at 1.03; interested to see what forum thinks of this.

[Gator Sens]

Unless the 1st has a real shot to be early, I would hold. Zero hope in Thomas and Freiermuth while solid, could go either way.

[saw061600]

Unless the 1st has a real shot to be early, I would hold. Zero hope in Thomas and Freiermuth while solid, could go either way.

Exactly where I'm at even if DLF says it's a smash accept.

[tsarpepe]

I'm taking the package, but I'm not as pessimistic about Thomas as others. I think he comes back to being at least a high-end WR2.

[saw061600]

I'm taking the package, but I'm not as pessimistic about Thomas as others. I think he comes back to being at least a high-end WR2.

Not pessimistic as much as I'm down to Henry at RB and don't feel I have legit chance. If Thomas doesn't come back strong, I'm left holding a 29 year old name without any trade value.

[zaner75]

Only a couple of this year's WRs will return 2023 first round value, imo. Anyone who says they know which of those it will be are fooling themselves (and you if you listen to them). I'm taking the 2023 pick as it has a better chance of being a RB or QB (assuming SF). Thomas and Freiermuth are gravy on top.

[saw061600]

Only a couple of this year's WRs will return 2023 first round value, imo. Anyone who says they know which of those it will be are fooling themselves (and you if you listen to them). I'm taking the 2023 pick as it has a better chance of being a RB or QB (assuming SF). Thomas and Freiermuth are gravy on top.

The irony of this post is anyone who says they know what any player will be worth next year is fooling themselves.

[zaner75]

The trade isn't really close, imo. The pick is a rookie WR. That rookie is close to 50/50 to lose value (based on ADP data shown below - 21/36). Thomas can likely be expected to produce close to the numbers of the rookie, provided he plays. Freiermuth is a young TE who has already produced a decent season. The 2023 1st is in a class that is expected to have more and higher pedigree RBs (and QBs if your league is SF), so the pick has a chance to be one of those premium positions.
I'm not saying which players will lose value, only that the likelihood is that there will be busts and no one knows who those busts will be. I'm firmly on the package side. Your response makes me think you prefer to use the pick, and that's your prerogative. Maybe I'll be wrong and each rookie will be a hit and maintain/increase in value, maybe you'll make the right choice if you use the pick. Doesn't make a lick of difference to me. You asked for input, I gave mine.

Here's the historical data per DLF ADP Over Time tool going back to 2014 as that's the first year data is available for (seems like it's 1QB, so included positional ADP for reference).
* denotes who I think could have been traded for a next year's 1st (top 24 positional ADP - your mileage may vary).
First round (NFL draft) WRs - assuming that at 1.03 you're deciding between the 6 first round WRs and not any of the 2nd rounders

2013 draft class (2014 Overall ADP/Positional ADP) - 2/3
Tavon Austin (95/WR43.09)
*DeAndre Hopkins (33/17.09)
*Cordarelle Patterson (21.82/7.82)

2014 - 5/5
*Sammy Watkins (16.73/12.36)
*Mike Evans (7.36/5.45)
*Odell Beckham Jr. (1.82/1.82)
*Brandin Cooks (22.27/15.18)
*Kelvin Benjamin (33.91/3.36) ? some sort of error with the data with positional ADP

2015 - 3/6
*Amari Cooper (6.33/6.08)
*Kevin White (33.92/23.75)
*DeVante Parker (26.58/19.83)
Nelson Agholor (111.25/56.75)
Breshad Perriman (70.58/41.42)
Phillip Dorsett (95.83/51.33)

2016 - 1/4
*Corey Coleman (42.17/24.67)
Will Fuller (95.42/48)
Josh Doctson (62/33.42)
Laquon Treadwell (114.3/55.08)

2017 - 1/3
*Corey Davis (32.25/16.67)
Mike Williams (75.67/37.25
John Ross (142.25/63.5)

2018 - 2/2
*DJ Moore (35.33/16.5)
*Calvin Ridley (43.58/21)

2019 - 0/2
Marquise Brown (67.5/33.42)
N'Keal Harry (90.25/44.33)

2020 - 4/6
Henry Ruggs (105/51.8)
*Jerry Jeudy (49.83/23.08)
*CeeDee Lamb (12.92/5.08)
Jalen Reagor (105.08/50.25)
*Justin Jefferson (6.42/1.92)
*Brandon Aiyuk (48.75/21.58)

2021 - 3/5
*Ja'Marr Chase (2.5/1.5)
*Jaylen Waddle (14.25/7.5)
*DeVonta Smith (44.75/21)
Kadarius Toney (86.25/42)
Rashod Bateman (68/33)

[BucBuc]

Package

[murphysxm]

Give 1.03
Get Michael Thomas, Friermuth, 2023 first

Loving all the discussion, pounding the table, arguments for which WR at 1.03; interested to see what forum thinks of this.

Easy accept for me

[UnsafeAtAnySpd]

Package. Assuming it's the pick from the team in question, it likely gets earlier giving up those pieces for a rookie.