Olave Garden is Back on the Menu

[mild]

It sort of reminds me a bit of Cooper's career arc. Coop started off looking like if he improved from his rookie year, he'd be that top end guy, but he just sort of plateau'd, and he was still a very good NFL WR, as I think Olave will be, but he just never really progressed to that elite level many thought he could get to.

I like that Cooper comparison - not because I think he'll top out at Cooper's level as a fantasy player, or anything (they have different playstyles for sure)... but because, I think - just like Cooper - his best years are likely ahead of him on a better, more competitive, non-Derek Carr team.

Players aren't stupid. My gut feel is that Olave can tell he's on a sinking ship, with a QB that would rather try and feed "the Vets" on the team in Slant Guy and Kamara - and who also just isn't that good, to boot. You know when you're playing for a mediocre or lost cause. That's this Saints team to a T - there's no light at the end of the horizon for these guys, everyone that is currently on the team is mortgaged well into the future Cap-wise - the team is the team, and it's not going to get better, it's not going to change.

[Sriracha]

My perception of Olave has changed pretty dramatically in less than a week. I viewed him as a very good, low-risk receiver before. Now with the Carr stuff, alleged lazy route running, and speeding, he's looking like a bit of a diva.

It doesn't hurt him that much for me, but there have been better weeks for his value than this one.

I roster him and I'm starting to get concerned. He's been aloof most of the year, on the field, and now this. Not sure "diva" is the right term, but his compete level, and play ethic are concerning, and this combined with that, is a concern for me, for sure. It may be nothing, he may learn from it and never do it again, but I've been concerned that Olave may not hit the ceiling I thought he could. I just don't think he has shown any indication he has the mentality to be a true top end, target hog type WR. I think he can still be a very good player, but I think 90 catches for 1200 yards might be closer to his ceiling than 110/1500 type thing.

It sort of reminds me a bit of Cooper's career arc. Coop started off looking like if he improved from his rookie year, he'd be that top end guy, but he just sort of plateau'd, and he was still a very good NFL WR, as I think Olave will be, but he just never really progressed to that elite level many thought he could get to.

He brought up the fact he played for the Saints while being arrested going 70 mph in a 35 mph zone. This in combination with him quitting routes makes me believe he's trending towards the "diva" path if he's not already arrived there.

I don't think he's a bad kid but he might be a little drunk on his rookie success. Hopefully he learns from this but man.. I did not see any of these signs out of him before this year.

Players aren't stupid. My gut feel is that Olave can tell he's on a sinking ship, with a QB that would rather try and feed "the Vets" on the team in Slant Guy and Kamara - and who also just isn't that good, to boot. You know when you're playing for a mediocre or lost cause. That's this Saints team to a T - there's no light at the end of the horizon for these guys, everyone that is currently on the team is mortgaged well into the future Cap-wise - the team is the team, and it's not going to get better, it's not going to change.

I'm not saying this was your intention but this came across as way too aplogetic for what is pretty clearly immature behavior. This is the NFL, you're expected to be a professional and the great ones take pride in their play regardless of the surrounding situation. You can sympathize with the human element but this is definitely a bad look. I saw people making similar excuses for Jerry Jeudy when he was throwing Lock under the bus his rookie year. Flash forward 3 years later and he's still making excuses, not holding himself accountable and hasn't improved a whole lot in the NFL.

[ThirdWW]

Where do we think his value is in terms of rookie picks?

[Jigga94]

Where do we think his value is in terms of rookie picks?

Early 1st in SF or 2 Random 1sts.

He's already hit. You can be concerned about the last 2 weeks, but to drop him behind a random 2024 rookie WR is silly imo. He was already going behind Caleb/MHJ. I don't think this warrants dropping him below others

[ThirdWW]

Where do we think his value is in terms of rookie picks?

Early 1st in SF or 2 Random 1sts.

He's already hit. You can be concerned about the last 2 weeks, but to drop him behind a random 2024 rookie WR is silly imo. He was already going behind Caleb/MHJ. I don't think this warrants dropping him below others

I agree he’s worth any non MHJ first (1QB), but I guess what should be added on top?

[Jigga94]

Where do we think his value is in terms of rookie picks?

Early 1st in SF or 2 Random 1sts.

He's already hit. You can be concerned about the last 2 weeks, but to drop him behind a random 2024 rookie WR is silly imo. He was already going behind Caleb/MHJ. I don't think this warrants dropping him below others

I agree he’s worth any non MHJ first (1QB), but I guess what should be added on top?

Not sure. I don't really like selling good young WR for unknown picks as the main piece coming back. Now if I could "tier down" to Flowers+ then sure

[MacDaddy123]

Where do we think his value is in terms of rookie picks?

I think a mid 24 1st in SF is fine. I'd re-roll with Nabers, Egbuka, or Coleman.
No way I'd pay an early 1st in SF for Olave, but then I am not an Olave truther.

[tstafford]

Not sure. I don't really like selling good young WR for unknown picks as the main piece coming back. Now if I could "tier down" to Flowers+ then sure

This is how I see it too. I'm not selling Olave for just picks unless it's the 1.02 in SF (which is an overpay). Flowers+ or Addison+ seems like a reasonable deal. Those deals would have been easy to get done two months ago. Not sure now. Feels like Olave stock is down and the rookies are up. Possibly just not the time to be shopping Olave.

[CGW]

Not sure. I don't really like selling good young WR for unknown picks as the main piece coming back. Now if I could "tier down" to Flowers+ then sure

This is how I see it too. I'm not selling Olave for just picks unless it's the 1.02 in SF (which is an overpay). Flowers+ or Addison+ seems like a reasonable deal. Those deals would have been easy to get done two months ago. Not sure now. Feels like Olave stock is down and the rookies are up. Possibly just not the time to be shopping Olave.

Really bad time. He's on pace for the same or better stats than last year despite playing in two games where Carr couldn't throw the ball two yards downfield. Just give it some time. He's getting 10+ targets per game, he's going to have some blowup games.

There's no way I'd be resetting on a guy who's going to have two of two 1,000 yard seasons in the NFL for a rookie dart throw (exception would be a once in a decade type player like MHJ).

I do like the idea of Flowers and a first type of deal though. Another WR who will likely put up similar stats, and the value just hasn't caught up to yet.

[Jigga94]

Not sure. I don't really like selling good young WR for unknown picks as the main piece coming back. Now if I could "tier down" to Flowers+ then sure

This is how I see it too. I'm not selling Olave for just picks unless it's the 1.02 in SF (which is an overpay). Flowers+ or Addison+ seems like a reasonable deal. Those deals would have been easy to get done two months ago. Not sure now. Feels like Olave stock is down and the rookies are up. Possibly just not the time to be shopping Olave.

Really bad time. He's on pace for the same or better stats than last year despite playing in two games where Carr couldn't throw the ball two yards downfield. Just give it some time. He's getting 10+ targets per game, he's going to have some blowup games.

There's no way I'd be resetting on a guy who's going to have two of two 1,000 yard seasons in the NFL for a rookie dart throw (exception would be a once in a decade type player like MHJ).

I do like the idea of Flowers and a first type of deal though. Another WR who will likely put up similar stats, and the value just hasn't caught up to yet.

Right. Why re-roll? He had the most YPG of any rookie WR last year and the most of any in the last 3 years not named Chase or JJ. Re-rolling into Egbuka or Coleman or Nabers could work, but no way am I taking them as the main part of the deal. There's just no real reason to move Olave right now

[CGW]

This is how I see it too. I'm not selling Olave for just picks unless it's the 1.02 in SF (which is an overpay). Flowers+ or Addison+ seems like a reasonable deal. Those deals would have been easy to get done two months ago. Not sure now. Feels like Olave stock is down and the rookies are up. Possibly just not the time to be shopping Olave.

Really bad time. He's on pace for the same or better stats than last year despite playing in two games where Carr couldn't throw the ball two yards downfield. Just give it some time. He's getting 10+ targets per game, he's going to have some blowup games.

There's no way I'd be resetting on a guy who's going to have two of two 1,000 yard seasons in the NFL for a rookie dart throw (exception would be a once in a decade type player like MHJ).

I do like the idea of Flowers and a first type of deal though. Another WR who will likely put up similar stats, and the value just hasn't caught up to yet.

Right. Why re-roll? He had the most YPG of any rookie WR last year and the most of any in the last 3 years not named Chase or JJ. Re-rolling into Egbuka or Coleman or Nabers could work, but no way am I taking them as the main part of the deal. There's just no real reason to move Olave right now

It's what, a ~25% chance for a first round WR to "hit" and become an WR1. Sure, you get the chance to find the next stud, but I prefer the 100% chance to already have the hit on my roster.

[Cameron Giles]

Olave is better than any WR in this class not named Marvin Harrison Jr. I would absolutely not be selling him to draft Emeka Egbuka lol.

[tstafford]

Olave is better than any WR in this class not named Marvin Harrison Jr. I would absolutely not be selling him to draft Emeka Egbuka lol.

I agree. However I think Egbuka is a very solid FF asset. Could end up as good or better than Olave. But there's no reason to trade out of a guy we've seen do it for one who might or might not.

[MacDaddy123]

Olave is better than any WR in this class not named Marvin Harrison Jr. I would absolutely not be selling him to draft Emeka Egbuka lol.

I don't agree with this at all.

I agree that Olave's value is down a little now, so may not be a good time to sell, but perhaps value has just dropped to where it belongs.

I sold both of my Olave shares this past off-season, because I felt he was being extremely over-valued.

In a 14 team SF TEP dynasty league, I traded away London, Olave, and DeVonta Smith for Tyreek, AJ Brown, and C. Kirk.
In a 12 team SF league I traded away Olave for Kelce and a 26 1st.

I have zero regrets for trading away Olave, like I said, IMO he was being over-valued by looking at his advanced metrics.
His advanced metrics showed that the only thing elite about him was his opportunity share.
His productivity and efficiency numbers were below average.

He is basically a very solid WR2 than some feel has WR1 potential.
I see him having a career similar to Robert Woods, very nice, stable WR2, who had one WR1 season in his career (2018 - WR11).

Some feel that Olave and Garrett Wilson are very close in value, I do not.
I feel that Wilson does have true WR1 potential.

[Sriracha]

Olave is better than any WR in this class not named Marvin Harrison Jr. I would absolutely not be selling him to draft Emeka Egbuka lol.

I don't agree with this at all.

I agree that Olave's value is down a little now, so may not be a good time to sell, but perhaps value has just dropped to where it belongs.

I sold both of my Olave shares this past off-season, because I felt he was being extremely over-valued.

In a 14 team SF TEP dynasty league, I traded away London, Olave, and DeVonta Smith for Tyreek, AJ Brown, and C. Kirk.
In a 12 team SF league I traded away Olave for Kelce and a 26 1st.

I have zero regrets for trading away Olave, like I said, IMO he was being over-valued by looking at his advanced metrics.
His advanced metrics showed that the only thing elite about him was his opportunity share.
His productivity and efficiency numbers were below average.

He is basically a very solid WR2 than some feel has WR1 potential.
I see him having a career similar to Robert Woods, very nice, stable WR2, who had one WR1 season in his career (2018 - WR11).

Some feel that Olave and Garrett Wilson are very close in value, I do not.
I feel that Wilson does have true WR1 potential.

Olave was top 10 in YPRR as a rookie putting him in rareified air.

He was insanely efficient; So much so that I was forced to elevate the ceiling I put on his play coming into the league. I thought he'd be a perennial WR2 and had him and Wilson as similar talents with Wilson having significant room to improve his game as he refined his route running.

Flash forward to this year and his numbers are down across the board. Doesn't seem as locked in as his rookie year and you're seeing that both on the field (with him quitting routes) and off-field where he's caught on video trying to get out of a wreckless endagerment level speeding ticket by telling the officers he's on the Saints.

I do think he's about as good as he'll ever be but where he is right now is already very impressive.