Olave Garden is Back on the Menu

[MacDaddy123]

Where do we think his value is in terms of rookie picks?

Early 1st in SF or 2 Random 1sts.

He's already hit. You can be concerned about the last 2 weeks, but to drop him behind a random 2024 rookie WR is silly imo. He was already going behind Caleb/MHJ. I don't think this warrants dropping him below others

Yeah, I'd agree with this. I'd want a top 4 pick to consider moving him, despite the fact I don't think he's going to have the ceiling I was hoping for with him. I still think he's an 80-90 catch guy. High TD upside isn't likely there, due to his play style, but I'd want a top 2 QB, MHJ or Bowers (in TEP) to move off him. He's still on pace for a similar year to last year, despite his issues. He's a good WR2 for your FF team, I'd say. The top 4 guys next year are the only players I'd feel comfortable moving off him for (in my league format)

Sure, top 4 pick in SF is what an Olave seller would want, but a buyer would have to be nuts to pay a top 4 pick for him.
Same issue with almost every player.

How many guys fall into the "Seller wants a late 1st, Buyer won't pay more than a 2nd" category???
Sellers want more than most buyers are willing to pay on the vast majority of players.

[frerichs5]

Olave is better than any WR in this class not named Marvin Harrison Jr. I would absolutely not be selling him to draft Emeka Egbuka lol.

I don't agree with this at all.

I agree that Olave's value is down a little now, so may not be a good time to sell, but perhaps value has just dropped to where it belongs.

I sold both of my Olave shares this past off-season, because I felt he was being extremely over-valued.

In a 14 team SF TEP dynasty league, I traded away London, Olave, and DeVonta Smith for Tyreek, AJ Brown, and C. Kirk.
In a 12 team SF league I traded away Olave for Kelce and a 26 1st.

I have zero regrets for trading away Olave, like I said, IMO he was being over-valued by looking at his advanced metrics.
His advanced metrics showed that the only thing elite about him was his opportunity share.
His productivity and efficiency numbers were below average.

He is basically a very solid WR2 than some feel has WR1 potential.
I see him having a career similar to Robert Woods, very nice, stable WR2, who had one WR1 season in his career (2018 - WR11).

Some feel that Olave and Garrett Wilson are very close in value, I do not.
I feel that Wilson does have true WR1 potential.

Curious, you said you don’t agree with this at all, but went on to explain why you thought Olave was overvalued. Him being overvalued is a fair opinion (as with any player; we all have different valuations).

But that was not the post you don’t agree with. Who besides MHJ in the upcoming draft are you taking over Olave?

[CGW]

Olave is better than any WR in this class not named Marvin Harrison Jr. I would absolutely not be selling him to draft Emeka Egbuka lol.

I don't agree with this at all.

I agree that Olave's value is down a little now, so may not be a good time to sell, but perhaps value has just dropped to where it belongs.

I sold both of my Olave shares this past off-season, because I felt he was being extremely over-valued.

In a 14 team SF TEP dynasty league, I traded away London, Olave, and DeVonta Smith for Tyreek, AJ Brown, and C. Kirk.
In a 12 team SF league I traded away Olave for Kelce and a 26 1st.

I have zero regrets for trading away Olave, like I said, IMO he was being over-valued by looking at his advanced metrics.
His advanced metrics showed that the only thing elite about him was his opportunity share.
His productivity and efficiency numbers were below average.

He is basically a very solid WR2 than some feel has WR1 potential.
I see him having a career similar to Robert Woods, very nice, stable WR2, who had one WR1 season in his career (2018 - WR11).

Some feel that Olave and Garrett Wilson are very close in value, I do not.
I feel that Wilson does have true WR1 potential.

Curious, you said you don’t agree with this at all, but went on to explain why you thought Olave was overvalued. Him being overvalued is a fair opinion (as with any player; we all have different valuations).

But that was not the post you don’t agree with. Who besides MHJ in the upcoming draft are you taking over Olave?

He mentioned it a few pages back. Basically any first round rookie next year. So reroll for a mid to late first in SF when the dust settles on this class.

"...I'd re-roll with Nabers, Egbuka, or Coleman..."

Clearly this information is not my opinion, just saving the macdaddy some time.

[frerichs5]

I don't agree with this at all.

I agree that Olave's value is down a little now, so may not be a good time to sell, but perhaps value has just dropped to where it belongs.

I sold both of my Olave shares this past off-season, because I felt he was being extremely over-valued.

In a 14 team SF TEP dynasty league, I traded away London, Olave, and DeVonta Smith for Tyreek, AJ Brown, and C. Kirk.
In a 12 team SF league I traded away Olave for Kelce and a 26 1st.

I have zero regrets for trading away Olave, like I said, IMO he was being over-valued by looking at his advanced metrics.
His advanced metrics showed that the only thing elite about him was his opportunity share.
His productivity and efficiency numbers were below average.

He is basically a very solid WR2 than some feel has WR1 potential.
I see him having a career similar to Robert Woods, very nice, stable WR2, who had one WR1 season in his career (2018 - WR11).

Some feel that Olave and Garrett Wilson are very close in value, I do not.
I feel that Wilson does have true WR1 potential.

Curious, you said you don’t agree with this at all, but went on to explain why you thought Olave was overvalued. Him being overvalued is a fair opinion (as with any player; we all have different valuations).

But that was not the post you don’t agree with. Who besides MHJ in the upcoming draft are you taking over Olave?

He mentioned it a few pages back. Basically any first round rookie next year. So reroll for a mid to late first in SF when the dust settles on this class.

"...I'd re-roll with Nabers, Egbuka, or Coleman..."

Clearly this information is not my opinion, just saving the macdaddy some time.

Thanks. I missed that somehow.

[FantasyFreak]

Early 1st in SF or 2 Random 1sts.

He's already hit. You can be concerned about the last 2 weeks, but to drop him behind a random 2024 rookie WR is silly imo. He was already going behind Caleb/MHJ. I don't think this warrants dropping him below others

Yeah, I'd agree with this. I'd want a top 4 pick to consider moving him, despite the fact I don't think he's going to have the ceiling I was hoping for with him. I still think he's an 80-90 catch guy. High TD upside isn't likely there, due to his play style, but I'd want a top 2 QB, MHJ or Bowers (in TEP) to move off him. He's still on pace for a similar year to last year, despite his issues. He's a good WR2 for your FF team, I'd say. The top 4 guys next year are the only players I'd feel comfortable moving off him for (in my league format)

Sure, top 4 pick in SF is what an Olave seller would want, but a buyer would have to be nuts to pay a top 4 pick for him.
Same issue with almost every player.

How many guys fall into the "Seller wants a late 1st, Buyer won't pay more than a 2nd" category???
Sellers want more than most buyers are willing to pay on the vast majority of players.

Yep, I get it. I would hold Olave over 2 mid/late firsts. Statistically unlikely to hit on both players, and if you hit on one, you have to hope he can produce like Olave. Your likely back to square one at best moving off him for 2 firsts that aren't premium picks, so yeah, he's basically a hold for me, unless I get a top 4 pick.

[Sriracha]

Yeah, I'd agree with this. I'd want a top 4 pick to consider moving him, despite the fact I don't think he's going to have the ceiling I was hoping for with him. I still think he's an 80-90 catch guy. High TD upside isn't likely there, due to his play style, but I'd want a top 2 QB, MHJ or Bowers (in TEP) to move off him. He's still on pace for a similar year to last year, despite his issues. He's a good WR2 for your FF team, I'd say. The top 4 guys next year are the only players I'd feel comfortable moving off him for (in my league format)

Sure, top 4 pick in SF is what an Olave seller would want, but a buyer would have to be nuts to pay a top 4 pick for him.
Same issue with almost every player.

How many guys fall into the "Seller wants a late 1st, Buyer won't pay more than a 2nd" category???
Sellers want more than most buyers are willing to pay on the vast majority of players.

Yep, I get it. I would hold Olave over 2 mid/late firsts. Statistically unlikely to hit on both players, and if you hit on one, you have to hope he can produce like Olave. Your likely back to square one at best moving off him for 2 firsts that aren't premium picks, so yeah, he's basically a hold for me, unless I get a top 4 pick.

In SF I'm taking 2 mid 1sts over Olave.

Upside wins championships and while I think Olave is a rock solid asset I don't see him having league winning upside.

[FantasyFreak]

Sure, top 4 pick in SF is what an Olave seller would want, but a buyer would have to be nuts to pay a top 4 pick for him.
Same issue with almost every player.

How many guys fall into the "Seller wants a late 1st, Buyer won't pay more than a 2nd" category???
Sellers want more than most buyers are willing to pay on the vast majority of players.

Yep, I get it. I would hold Olave over 2 mid/late firsts. Statistically unlikely to hit on both players, and if you hit on one, you have to hope he can produce like Olave. Your likely back to square one at best moving off him for 2 firsts that aren't premium picks, so yeah, he's basically a hold for me, unless I get a top 4 pick.

In SF I'm taking 2 mid 1sts over Olave.

Upside wins championships and while I think Olave is a rock solid asset I don't see him having league winning upside.

That's a blanket statement, I really think it depends on team structure, where I have him, I don't need 2 lottery tickets, I'd prefer Olave. What are the chances 2 mid/late firsts land you a guy with league winning upside, really? Not high. I'd rather package Olave and move up to say, Chase, but I already have him on that team. Maybe a package up to JJ, but on a contending team with no real needs, I'm keeping Olave in my starting lineup over 2 dart throws on lesser prospects than Olave, a year out.

[Sriracha]

That's a blanket statement, I really think it depends on team structure, where I have him, I don't need 2 lottery tickets, I'd prefer Olave. What are the chances 2 mid/late firsts land you a guy with league winning upside, really? Not high. I'd rather package Olave and move up to say, Chase, but I already have him on that team. Maybe a package up to JJ, but on a contending team with no real needs, I'm keeping Olave in my starting lineup over 2 dart throws on lesser prospects than Olave, a year out.

I suppose it comes down to your risk aversion but I'd be surprised if you found anyone willing to actually trade two mid 1sts for Olave.

[Anteaters]

I suppose it comes down to your risk aversion but I'd be surprised if you found anyone willing to actually trade two mid 1sts for Olave.

I wouldn't. Then again, I see Olave as a very good low end WR2 who is being overvalued as a midWR1.

At the right price, I'd be very happy to trade for Olave. At current valuations, not so much.

Fantasy managers have to be careful about getting over excited about athleticism and better than average seasons as a rookie. Every NFL WR is athletic and most are rare athletic specimens. There can only be 12 (or 14) WR1s in fantasy. Let's say we push that to 16-18 guys because of fluctuation and close calls. Olave ain't there.

Sure, we can toss out a few old guys in dynasty rankings and try to guess which young guys are going to improve their stats and be next years (or two years from now) T16WRs. But looking forward means not only downgrading old guys like Evans and Adams, it means adding in rookies who will be studs. For all intents and purposes, a second or third year WR who is scoring WR26 in 2023, is going to be a WR who is scoring around WR26 in 2024.

If you see something you truly like about a player that points to growth, go for it. But don't try to force anticipated growth on every player with athleticism, or you'll be chasing ever chick at the bar after catching a glimpse at her from across a crowded room.

Pay for Olave the same as you'd pay for Flowers or Pittman or Kirk. And even that is a bit of a reach for me right now. If Olave's situation presented a higher target share, he'd be on these guys value level. Right now, I put him a smidge below, but close enough for this comparison.

[Menace2010]

This post has inspired me to send out a few offers. Will try to tier up from a lesser WR +1st in leagues where I'm a contender and see if I can get a deal or two done.

[Tvols]

I suppose it comes down to your risk aversion but I'd be surprised if you found anyone willing to actually trade two mid 1sts for Olave.

I wouldn't. Then again, I see Olave as a very good low end WR2 who is being overvalued as a midWR1.

At the right price, I'd be very happy to trade for Olave. At current valuations, not so much.

Fantasy managers have to be careful about getting over excited about athleticism and better than average seasons as a rookie. Every NFL WR is athletic and most are rare athletic specimens. There can only be 12 (or 14) WR1s in fantasy. Let's say we push that to 16-18 guys because of fluctuation and close calls. Olave ain't there.

Sure, we can toss out a few old guys in dynasty rankings and try to guess which young guys are going to improve their stats and be next years (or two years from now) T16WRs. But looking forward means not only downgrading old guys like Evans and Adams, it means adding in rookies who will be studs. For all intents and purposes, a second or third year WR who is scoring WR26 in 2023, is going to be a WR who is scoring around WR26 in 2024.

If you see something you truly like about a player that points to growth, go for it. But don't try to force anticipated growth on every player with athleticism, or you'll be chasing ever chick at the bar after catching a glimpse at her from across a crowded room.

Pay for Olave the same as you'd pay for Flowers or Pittman or Kirk. And even that is a bit of a reach for me right now. If Olave's situation presented a higher target share, he'd be on these guys value level. Right now, I put him a smidge below, but close enough for this comparison.

are we going put waddle in this category too? or does he fall further? He is struggling this year injury possible? IDk is why I ask? Wilson we going move down he is struggling too? just curious what the break point is? I love any of them on my team, there are only a few "studs" in the league it why they are so valuable and rightfully so. IMO, The top ones are elite talent with elite type situations.

[joeya2001]

I suppose it comes down to your risk aversion but I'd be surprised if you found anyone willing to actually trade two mid 1sts for Olave.

I wouldn't. Then again, I see Olave as a very good low end WR2 who is being overvalued as a midWR1.

At the right price, I'd be very happy to trade for Olave. At current valuations, not so much.

Fantasy managers have to be careful about getting over excited about athleticism and better than average seasons as a rookie. Every NFL WR is athletic and most are rare athletic specimens. There can only be 12 (or 14) WR1s in fantasy. Let's say we push that to 16-18 guys because of fluctuation and close calls. Olave ain't there.

Sure, we can toss out a few old guys in dynasty rankings and try to guess which young guys are going to improve their stats and be next years (or two years from now) T16WRs. But looking forward means not only downgrading old guys like Evans and Adams, it means adding in rookies who will be studs. For all intents and purposes, a second or third year WR who is scoring WR26 in 2023, is going to be a WR who is scoring around WR26 in 2024.

If you see something you truly like about a player that points to growth, go for it. But don't try to force anticipated growth on every player with athleticism, or you'll be chasing ever chick at the bar after catching a glimpse at her from across a crowded room.

Pay for Olave the same as you'd pay for Flowers or Pittman or Kirk. And even that is a bit of a reach for me right now. If Olave's situation presented a higher target share, he'd be on these guys value level. Right now, I put him a smidge below, but close enough for this comparison.

are we going put waddle in this category too? or does he fall further? He is struggling this year injury possible? IDk is why I ask? Wilson we going move down he is struggling too? just curious what the break point is? I love any of them on my team, there are only a few "studs" in the league it why they are so valuable and rightfully so. IMO, The top ones are elite talent with elite type situations.

Yes, let’s move them all down.

[CGW]

I suppose it comes down to your risk aversion but I'd be surprised if you found anyone willing to actually trade two mid 1sts for Olave.

I wouldn't. Then again, I see Olave as a very good low end WR2 who is being overvalued as a midWR1.

At the right price, I'd be very happy to trade for Olave. At current valuations, not so much.

Fantasy managers have to be careful about getting over excited about athleticism and better than average seasons as a rookie. Every NFL WR is athletic and most are rare athletic specimens. There can only be 12 (or 14) WR1s in fantasy. Let's say we push that to 16-18 guys because of fluctuation and close calls. Olave ain't there.

Sure, we can toss out a few old guys in dynasty rankings and try to guess which young guys are going to improve their stats and be next years (or two years from now) T16WRs. But looking forward means not only downgrading old guys like Evans and Adams, it means adding in rookies who will be studs. For all intents and purposes, a second or third year WR who is scoring WR26 in 2023, is going to be a WR who is scoring around WR26 in 2024.

If you see something you truly like about a player that points to growth, go for it. But don't try to force anticipated growth on every player with athleticism, or you'll be chasing ever chick at the bar after catching a glimpse at her from across a crowded room.

Pay for Olave the same as you'd pay for Flowers or Pittman or Kirk. And even that is a bit of a reach for me right now. If Olave's situation presented a higher target share, he'd be on these guys value level. Right now, I put him a smidge below, but close enough for this comparison.

Ok, so first off I wouldn't call Olave super athletic. I don't believe anyone in here has ever said Olave just overpowers defense with pure athleticism. He's a greate route runner and he's fast, but his biggest knock coming into the league was that he's largely not very strong (minimal YAC and contested catch ability). He's actually not been horrible this year in YAC, coming in at WR #18 with 170 yards after catch.

So here's the part i disagree with - he's getting 26% of the target share for the Saints. He's 8th in overall targets on the season. But look a little deeper and see why it's not translating to WR1 numbers this year. Currently, he sits at #81 in catchable target rate at 63.2%. He's getting poop for targets, especially downfield where he's very good. Yes, they come in his general direction as apparent in the # of targets he's credited with, but check-down Carr just hasn't been good.

Olave could certainly be better, don't get me wrong. The mental lapses this year have been annoying. But there is absolutely a path to him being a WR1 for a long time, with a pretty easy floor of WR2. That's pretty valuable for a 23yo and why he's going over guys like Kirk, Pittman, etc. If a single mid to late first can acquire him (the price for Kirk and Pittman in most SF leagues), run as fast as you can to your leaguemates and make that deal now.

[BabyChark23]

So here's the part i disagree with - he's getting 26% of the target share for the Saints. He's 8th in overall targets on the season. But look a little deeper and see why it's not translating to WR1 numbers this year. Currently, he sits at #81 in catchable target rate at 63.2%. He's getting poop for targets, especially downfield where he's very good.

It’s almost as if Carr wasn’t that much of an upgrade. I pointed this out over the offseason. Doesn’t look so crazy now. I am a little surprised at the downfield targets being bad. Is there a stat on that for this year?

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=236124&hilit=Dalton

Did he get that much of an upgrade though? I originally thought so too, but this article comparing Carr’s career metrics to Dalton’s performance last year is interesting.

https://www.rotoballer.com/chris-olave-and-derek-carr-

If you check the charts in the article, his performance last year was in the ball park of his career averages. Comparing 2022 Dalton to career average Carr, the numbers were also in the ball park. Maybe the numbers in the article are wrong. Idk. I’m just curious if anyone has any concrete numbers that show Carr is a clear and significant upgrade over 2022 Dalton.

Edit: the only one I see is that Carr has a better deep ball completion percentage than Dalton did last year. That does mesh with Olave’s skill set nicely.

[CGW]

So here's the part i disagree with - he's getting 26% of the target share for the Saints. He's 8th in overall targets on the season. But look a little deeper and see why it's not translating to WR1 numbers this year. Currently, he sits at #81 in catchable target rate at 63.2%. He's getting poop for targets, especially downfield where he's very good.

It’s almost as if Carr wasn’t that much of an upgrade. I pointed this out over the offseason. Doesn’t look so crazy now. I am a little surprised at the downfield targets being bad. Is there a stat on that for this year?

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=236124&hilit=Dalton

Did he get that much of an upgrade though? I originally thought so too, but this article comparing Carr’s career metrics to Dalton’s performance last year is interesting.

https://www.rotoballer.com/chris-olave-and-derek-carr-

If you check the charts in the article, his performance last year was in the ball park of his career averages. Comparing 2022 Dalton to career average Carr, the numbers were also in the ball park. Maybe the numbers in the article are wrong. Idk. I’m just curious if anyone has any concrete numbers that show Carr is a clear and significant upgrade over 2022 Dalton.

Edit: the only one I see is that Carr has a better deep ball completion percentage than Dalton did last year. That does mesh with Olave’s skill set nicely.

I was wrong on Carr in the offseason. I really though his deep ball matched up with Olaves skillset, but it just hasn't been the case. Some of that is the shoulder injury, but even prior to that it wasn't good. It's been horrendous since the injury.