Olave Garden is Back on the Menu

[MacDaddy123]

Olave is better than any WR in this class not named Marvin Harrison Jr. I would absolutely not be selling him to draft Emeka Egbuka lol.

I don't agree with this at all.

I agree that Olave's value is down a little now, so may not be a good time to sell, but perhaps value has just dropped to where it belongs.

I sold both of my Olave shares this past off-season, because I felt he was being extremely over-valued.

In a 14 team SF TEP dynasty league, I traded away London, Olave, and DeVonta Smith for Tyreek, AJ Brown, and C. Kirk.
In a 12 team SF league I traded away Olave for Kelce and a 26 1st.

I have zero regrets for trading away Olave, like I said, IMO he was being over-valued by looking at his advanced metrics.
His advanced metrics showed that the only thing elite about him was his opportunity share.
His productivity and efficiency numbers were below average.

He is basically a very solid WR2 than some feel has WR1 potential.
I see him having a career similar to Robert Woods, very nice, stable WR2, who had one WR1 season in his career (2018 - WR11).

Some feel that Olave and Garrett Wilson are very close in value, I do not.
I feel that Wilson does have true WR1 potential.

Olave was top 10 in YPRR as a rookie putting him in rareified air.

He was insanely efficient; So much so that I was forced to elevate the ceiling I put on his play coming into the league. I thought he'd be a perennial WR2 and had him and Wilson as similar talents with Wilson having significant room to improve his game as he refined his route running.

Flash forward to this year and his numbers are down across the board. Doesn't seem as locked in as his rookie year and you're seeing that both on the field (with him quitting routes) and off-field where he's caught on video trying to get out of a wreckless endagerment level speeding ticket by telling the officers he's on the Saints.

I do think he's about as good as he'll ever be but where he is right now is already very impressive.

That is true, he was WR10 in YPRR.

Olave was also WR42 in YAC, WR56 in fantasy points per target, WR67 in contested catch rate, WR80 in target separation, and WR72 in true catch rate.

Hard to add all of that up to insanely efficient, but whatever.

[Sriracha]

That is true, he was WR10 in YPRR.

Olave was also WR42 in YAC, WR56 in fantasy points per target, WR67 in contested catch rate, WR80 in target separation, and WR72 in true catch rate.

Hard to add all of that up to insanely efficient, but whatever.

Correct me if I'm wrong but do those stats actually correlate to future success?

[FantasyFreak]

There's no metrics for headspace. He's having issues right now, and it's concerning. He's a young guy, doesn't seem like a bad guy, but he's having issues between the ears, no 2 ways about it. He's capable of more, QB agnostic. He's dropped TD's, quit on routes, played soft, and had this off field thing. He's a young guy, I hope he gets it together, he's a really good player, when he's on his game.

[mild]

My gut feel is that Olave can tell he's on a sinking ship, with a QB that would rather try and feed "the Vets" on the team in Slant Guy and Kamara - and who also just isn't that good, to boot.

Just to give this a little more context:

Chris Olave's target share w/out Alvin Kamara (Weeks 1-3) = 30.8%

Olave's target share w/ Kamara (Weeks 4-7) = 21.1%

To quote DLF forum-favourite Matt Harmon:

Having Alvin Kamara (known for his impact as a receiver) as the RB for a Derek Carr (addicted to checkdowns) offense is like dropping a pack of cigs off on a smoker’s bedside table every morning.

Even if he wanted to quit, he has no shot. It’s over as soon as the day begins.

I completely understand why Olave would feel the temptation to check-out given that his QB is addicted to checking down to the RB all the time on this pretty life-less 3-4 Saints team that is currently eyeing it's 3rd straight loss.

[FantasyFreak]

My gut feel is that Olave can tell he's on a sinking ship, with a QB that would rather try and feed "the Vets" on the team in Slant Guy and Kamara - and who also just isn't that good, to boot.

Just to give this a little more context:

Chris Olave's target share w/out Alvin Kamara (Weeks 1-3) = 30.8%

Olave's target share w/ Kamara (Weeks 4-7) = 21.1%

To quote DLF forum-favourite Matt Harmon:

Having Alvin Kamara (known for his impact as a receiver) as the RB for a Derek Carr (addicted to checkdowns) offense is like dropping a pack of cigs off on a smoker’s bedside table every morning.

Even if he wanted to quit, he has no shot. It’s over as soon as the day begins.

I completely understand why Olave would feel the temptation to check-out given that his QB is addicted to checking down to the RB all the time on this pretty life-less 3-4 Saints team that is currently eyeing it's 3rd straight loss.

Man, glad I never played on your team, in my athletics. What a terrible take. Every play matters, whether your the main target or not, your route is a designed piece to an overall play that affects other routes, and the success of the play, whether it goes to you or not. So Carr sucks, don't try, who cares about the rest of the team. Got it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYjCbgM87sQ

[mild]

Man, glad I never played on your team, in my athletics. What a terrible take. Every play matters, whether your the main target or not, your route is a designed piece to an overall play that affects other routes, and the success of the play, whether it goes to you or not. So Carr sucks, don't try, who cares about the rest of the team, got it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYjCbgM87sQ

OK boomer!

I said I understand his temptation to check out. The ball isn't coming his way.

Carr would rather force-feed Alvin Kamara.

Everyone here is saying "his headspace is troubling" - I'm just saying, I'd be troubled too if I was a top-tier WR that was on a losing 3-4 team that was not being targeted like a true #1 WR.

Y'know. Kinda like Davante Adams on the 3-4 Raiders.

His headspace is troubling too, right?

[FantasyFreak]

Man, glad I never played on your team, in my athletics. What a terrible take. Every play matters, whether your the main target or not, your route is a designed piece to an overall play that affects other routes, and the success of the play, whether it goes to you or not. So Carr sucks, don't try, who cares about the rest of the team, got it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYjCbgM87sQ

OK boomer!

I said I understand his temptation to check out. The ball isn't coming his way.

Carr would rather force-feed Alvin Kamara.

Everyone here is saying "his headspace is troubling" - I'm just saying, I'd be troubled too if I was a top-tier WR that was on a losing 3-4 team that was not being targeted like a true #1 WR.

Y'know. Kinda like Davante Adams on the 3-4 Raiders.

His headspace is troubling too, right?

Olave dropped a great throw vs the Pats on a deep ball for a 30 plus yard TD. He's been targeted heavily. He was targeted 15 times last week. What are you talking about?


The temptation, OK, but he's doing it. He's not tempted to do it, he IS. 15 targets. "The ball isn't coming his way".

Adams, likely HOFER. Olave, 2nd year, had a good rookie year. Saints, In contention for first in their division. Raiders.....

Adams, barely targeted the week before. Olave, 25 targets the last 2 weeks.

[CGW]

This is one of the best arguments about nothing I've ever seen.

[FantasyFreak]

This is one of the best arguments about nothing I've ever seen.

Oh, I'm not giving it more of my night. I'm done with it, I see zero credibility in the statements. I've said my piece. Moving on.

[Sriracha]

Y'know. Kinda like Davante Adams on the 3-4 Raiders.

His headspace is troubling too, right?

Did I miss something with Davante? I don't know how asking for more targets is remotely similar to what Olave's doing

[mild]

Y'know. Kinda like Davante Adams on the 3-4 Raiders.

His headspace is troubling too, right?

Did I miss something with Davante? I don't know how asking for more targets is remotely similar to what Olave's doing

Nah, he's just the other guy on a bad team that this place was trying to call a diva recently.

Olave drove a car too fast, and only has 1 touchdown this year whilst being on pace for his second straight 1000 yard season. (1143 pace currently, but whose counting?)

As CGW said, this is a whole lot of nothing about nothing.

Saints bad. Derek Carr bad. Chris Olave good, could probably be better and drive less fast.

News at 6.

[Sriracha]

I don't think anyone's slamming him because he drove too fast.. it's the signs of entitlement that have been cropping up in his play and are overflowing into everyday life.

https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/stat ... 5984319842

Video of the arrest if you care to watch it. I wouldn't be as critical of his "headspace" if he didn't try to play the "I play on the Saints" card to get out of a wreckless driving arrest; And I wouldn't pay too much mind to the "I play on the Saints" comment if his play wasn't already setting off warning sirens.

[CGW]

Reminds me I need to go send out a few offers for him in the two leagues I haven't been able to get him.

[FantasyFreak]

Reminds me I need to go send out a few offers for him in the two leagues I haven't been able to get him.

Go send out a few offers for him in the 2 leagues you haven't been able to get him in.

[FantasyFreak]

Where do we think his value is in terms of rookie picks?

Early 1st in SF or 2 Random 1sts.

He's already hit. You can be concerned about the last 2 weeks, but to drop him behind a random 2024 rookie WR is silly imo. He was already going behind Caleb/MHJ. I don't think this warrants dropping him below others

Yeah, I'd agree with this. I'd want a top 4 pick to consider moving him, despite the fact I don't think he's going to have the ceiling I was hoping for with him. I still think he's an 80-90 catch guy. High TD upside isn't likely there, due to his play style, but I'd want a top 2 QB, MHJ or Bowers (in TEP) to move off him. He's still on pace for a similar year to last year, despite his issues. He's a good WR2 for your FF team, I'd say. The top 4 guys next year are the only players I'd feel comfortable moving off him for (in my league format)