Is CeeDee Lamb being over-valued right now as WR3 in Dynasty startups?

[MacDaddy123]

I acquired Lamb for what I felt was a fair price in January 2022 because I was aware of Cooper's contract issues (rumors of cutting Cooper), and I knew that Schultz, Gallup, and Wilson were all UFA's, so I felt like Lamb's value would rise.

Well according to KTC, Lamb's value did rise 10% between January and March 31st, however, it has dropped 4% in April.

My concern is that Dak Prescott has never supported a top 5 WR in his 6 year career. The best he has ever done is one year of Amari Cooper as WR10 in 2019 (before Lamb). So in 6 years, Dak has supported only one WR1, and yet Lamb isn't ranked as a low end WR1, like WR10 or WR11. Lamb is ranked as WR3 in most Dynasty rankings. How is that possible?

Sure, I expect Lamb to rise up from WR22 (2020) and WR19 (2021), but I think WR10 is his ceiling.
How can a player be ranked WR3 if he has no chance of being a top 5 WR?
And if the Cowboys draft Burks, or another top WR, I doubt that Lamb can climb higher than high end WR2 territory.

Anyway, so I have tried to trade Lamb away, since I think his value has peaked. There is no way that I think Lamb will ever surpass Jefferson or Chase. However, his trade value does not seem to match his WR3 ranking either.

20 team 1 QB, PPR league, I offered Lamb straight up for 2022 1.01 and was declined.
I then offered CeeDee Lamb + Michael Carter for Javonte Williams, and that was declined.
I would think that a legit WR3 would be able to make either of those trades work.

Is Lamb simply over-rated because he is a Cowboy? If so, why?
Dak hasn't proven that he can maintain a WR1, having only one in his 6 seasons.

[FantasyFreak]

I think so. I roster him, but I don't think he's a true WR1. We shall see soon enough. He really benefited from Cooper, getting slot reps and weaker DB's. I think Lamb is a very good player, but it will really depend on whether or not Dallas takes Burks, because I think they will find ways to use him if they do. If not, Lamb may get a higher target share, but he needs to earn it. He completely disappeared vs SF, and I worry now that he's going to get the top DB from every team, and possibly even bracket coverage, that he will struggle at times. Good WR2 in FF, not convinced he's a WR 1, certainly not top 5 for scoring. I also think AJB is over rated for FF, though great for real football. He's just not in the right offense to really put up top numbers.

[StripesOfKC]

This 20% target share WR2 is barely even a top 10 dynasty WR

Top 3 is hilarious

[Anteaters]

First, I'll say I don't think Lamb is the definitive Dynasty WR3. I'd say somewhere between 3 and 6, and I'm more comfortable at 5-6 than 3-4.

Next, I think there is a difference between Lamb being the Dynasty WR3-6 and Lamb being the overall WR3-6 for the upcoming 2022 season. Part of his dynasty ranking is his relative youth. I don't think anyone is betting Lamb will have better 2022 stats than Adams or maybe not even Mike Evans. But the assumption is those guys have 1-3 more prime seasons left in their career while Lamb should have 5-7 more years left.

Finally, I agree the projections for Lamb are slightly over-optimistic. I think it's a bit ridiculous when people go too far the other way and suggest Lamb is unlikely to finish among the overall T12WR for 2022, but I don't feel confident he'll finish in the T5WR for 2022. The T5 is rare air, where Tyreek's and Davante's best seasons routinely are. It's where Chase routinely looks like he belongs. I haven't seen that sort of consistent explosiveness from Lamb yet -- but he's always had a combination of the presence of Cooper and the extended absences of Dak to hold him back, so it's hard to determine his true value as a team's Alpha. It's certainly possible he explodes for a great 2022 like that, but I think it's more likely he has a solid mid-to-back-end WR1 season.

My projections going into the 2022 season is Lamb should be Dynasty WR5-6, and Redraft WR7-10. In Dynasty, Chase and JJ are going to be the consensus top two. Then I think it's fair if the majority opinion puts Kupp/AJB/DKM above Lamb. Then it's just a matter of age+productionProjection preference as to where Lamb falls with Adams/Hill and maybe a couple of others. But in no logical world is Lamb a lower Dynasty WR than the group including Higgins/DJM/Diontae/TMc.

[Ice]

He has plenty of potential to be a legit WR1 but Dallas spreads the ball too much to be a top 3 WR IMO.

I could see top 6 or 7 based on potential but most don’t realize just how good Gallup is and how Dallas uses their TE’s.

[Patsfan86]

Short answer : Yes

Id still rather have Waddle, Tyreek Hill (even with the new situation) Higgins, Diggs, Deebo, possibly even Metcalf, AJB

If we are solely putting him up as the dynasty WR3 based on vacated targets then that is just not a good way to go about it. IMO vacated targets is a nonsense stat, its one i always avoid. Good players will get targets no matter what, bad players wont get those targets no matter what.

Lamb is a good player but ive seen the theme with him repeated often, a great prospect is expected to eventually become great, so many people buy into them and invest in them so their value obviously inflates wether the player really meets expectations or not. This seems to be going on with lamb. So many people have invested a lot in him so his value has inflated even though he hasnt met expectations. Lamb is still very young and he could become the dynasty WR3 but as of now he is only the WR3 based on this hope he meets expectations and partly this vacated target stat which I think is a nonsense stat.

[Lumps]

Anteaters and Ice nailed the rationale for his ranking. Well done to both of you.

I think a number of WRs (and RBs) have gotten in front of their skis a bit this off season. Kind of the issue though is ONE of them has to be WR3. That just makes the WR6 look more attractive by comparison. A number of those listed by Anteater could be 3 and it’s the same discussion.

You are right to try to cash out in my opinion. I think the problem is with your trade targets - hyped assets as well. Try for something a little less hyped or even just lesser and get some extra added on. Not sure where Higgins is by comparison, but would anyone be surprised if they scored equally? I think Lamb is the better player but I’m not sure fantasy will bare that out for the reasons mentioned.

As a Javonte owner I probably would have taken that Lamb + Carter offer. I really like Carter however (not that I don’t have faith in Williams).

[murphysxm]

I think it's a bit ridiculous when people go too far the other way and suggest Lamb is unlikely to finish among the overall T12WR for 2022, but I don't feel confident he'll finish in the T5WR for 2022.

CeeDee has never had a top 12 season, how is it ridiculous to question he will do something he has never done?

[Sriracha]

I think it's a bit ridiculous when people go too far the other way and suggest Lamb is unlikely to finish among the overall T12WR for 2022, but I don't feel confident he'll finish in the T5WR for 2022.

CeeDee has never had a top 12 season, how is it ridiculous to question he will do something he has never done?

Lamb's always gotten too much hype based on his age and pedigree coming into the league.

Don't get me wrong, he was a phenomenal prospect and had a good first 2 years.. but projecting a superstar WR is very difficult and nothing he's done so far in his NFL career should have people this confident he's going to be a star.

Could he be? Absolutely.. but he's priced at his ceiling right now.. I wouldn't try to sell him, but if anyone is giving you Dyno WR3 value you're taking a big risk not moving him now.

[Anteaters]

I think it's a bit ridiculous when people go too far the other way and suggest Lamb is unlikely to finish among the overall T12WR for 2022, but I don't feel confident he'll finish in the T5WR for 2022.

CeeDee has never had a top 12 season, how is it ridiculous to question he will do something he has never done?

That's the entire premise of "third year breakout." Trying to figure out which young WRs will put it all together in their third (or fourth or second) season and take that step to the next level. With rare exception, no WR comes into the league as a fantasy WR1.

Tyreek went from WR25 to WR9 in his breakout season. Davante went from WR27, to WR66, to WR9 in his breakout season. Kupp went from WR25, to WR51, to WR4. The examples are endless. Lamb was WR22 his rookie season, then WR15 in his second season. That's a better first two seasons by far than Adams and Kupp, and not far off Tyreek's pace of improvement.

If Dak remains healthy all season, it stands to reason that a talented WR like Lamb will receive more opportunity now that Cooper is gone. It's blindingly obvious to me.

[Sriracha]

I think it's a bit ridiculous when people go too far the other way and suggest Lamb is unlikely to finish among the overall T12WR for 2022, but I don't feel confident he'll finish in the T5WR for 2022.

CeeDee has never had a top 12 season, how is it ridiculous to question he will do something he has never done?

That's the entire premise of "third year breakout." Trying to figure out which young WRs will put it all together in their third (or fourth or second) season and take that step to the next level. With rare exception, no WR comes into the league as a fantasy WR1.

Tyreek went from WR25 to WR9 in his breakout season. Davante went from WR27, to WR66, to WR9 in his breakout season. Kupp went from WR25, to WR51, to WR4. The examples are endless. Lamb was WR22 his rookie season, then WR15 in his second season. That's a better first two seasons by far than Adams and Kupp, and not far off Tyreek's pace of improvement.

If Dak remains healthy all season, it stands to reason that a talented WR like Lamb will receive more opportunity now that Cooper is gone. It's blindingly obvious to me.

Is 3rd year breakout still a thing?

In recent years it's been more about the year 2 breakout as WRs are now coming into the league far more polished than they were in years past.

[Lumps]

If Dak remains healthy all season, it stands to reason that a talented WR like Lamb will receive more opportunity now that Cooper is gone. It's blindingly obvious to me.

I don’t really have a dog in this fight (in as little of one it is) but I don’t think people are disagreeing with this. It’s definitely in the realm of possibilities.

However, that’s kind of the point. Possible. He’s already priced as though he’s accomplished it. At least ADP wise, maybe you CAN’T get WR#3 value in a trade? If you CAN, I can see trying to pull something like one of the WRs in the same grouping or similar projection + something else. Like a Michael Carter or a 1st or any other nice piece you have faith in personally. Seems good value to me.

[Anteaters]

That's the entire premise of "third year breakout." Trying to figure out which young WRs will put it all together in their third (or fourth or second) season and take that step to the next level. With rare exception, no WR comes into the league as a fantasy WR1.

Tyreek went from WR25 to WR9 in his breakout season. Davante went from WR27, to WR66, to WR9 in his breakout season. Kupp went from WR25, to WR51, to WR4. The examples are endless. Lamb was WR22 his rookie season, then WR15 in his second season. That's a better first two seasons by far than Adams and Kupp, and not far off Tyreek's pace of improvement.

If Dak remains healthy all season, it stands to reason that a talented WR like Lamb will receive more opportunity now that Cooper is gone. It's blindingly obvious to me.

Is 3rd year breakout still a thing?

In recent years it's been more about the year 2 breakout as WRs are now coming into the league far more polished than they were in years past.

I think it's still a thing. Second season breakouts have always been rare, but it happens. Julio did it. Tyreek did it. But by and large, it's the third season that does it. While it seems more prevalent recently for WRs to break out first or second season, I think it's too early to call it a trend.

For one thing we're basically talking about only two recent players to break out in year 1, JJ and Chase. Maybe Waddle if you want to include him, but he never quite became a WR1 and it seems very likely his numbers dip in year 2. And this has happened before. Look up Hopkins' first couple of seasons, and there was Michael Thomas in 2016. And we can go back to Moss, so it looks like maybe every three or four years there's a 1st year WR1. So for year one breakouts, I think we need to see four or five over two seasons before we can call it an escalating trend. And even the second season breakouts to WR1 are still rare.

I think year three is still the path for fantasy managers to try to track.

[Anteaters]

However, that’s kind of the point. Possible. He’s already priced as though he’s accomplished it. At least ADP wise, maybe you CAN’T get WR#3 value in a trade? If you CAN, I can see trying to pull something like one of the WRs in the same grouping or similar projection + something else. Like a Michael Carter or a 1st or any other nice piece you have faith in personally. Seems good value to me.

I agree there is merit to considering the value proposition. There are other WRs who will deliver production close enough to WR9-12 who will be a lot cheaper to acquire than Lamb. I wouldn't trade Lamb for Carter+1st, but I see the value in basing a trade around Carter or that 1st to get one of the other slightly less projected guys in the WR14-20 range.

[Sriracha]

That's the entire premise of "third year breakout." Trying to figure out which young WRs will put it all together in their third (or fourth or second) season and take that step to the next level. With rare exception, no WR comes into the league as a fantasy WR1.

Tyreek went from WR25 to WR9 in his breakout season. Davante went from WR27, to WR66, to WR9 in his breakout season. Kupp went from WR25, to WR51, to WR4. The examples are endless. Lamb was WR22 his rookie season, then WR15 in his second season. That's a better first two seasons by far than Adams and Kupp, and not far off Tyreek's pace of improvement.

If Dak remains healthy all season, it stands to reason that a talented WR like Lamb will receive more opportunity now that Cooper is gone. It's blindingly obvious to me.

Is 3rd year breakout still a thing?

In recent years it's been more about the year 2 breakout as WRs are now coming into the league far more polished than they were in years past.

I think it's still a thing. Second season breakouts have always been rare, but it happens. Julio did it. Tyreek did it. But by and large, it's the third season that does it. While it seems more prevalent recently for WRs to break out first or second season, I think it's too early to call it a trend.

For one thing we're basically talking about only two recent players to break out in year 1, JJ and Chase. Maybe Waddle if you want to include him, but he never quite became a WR1 and it seems very likely his numbers dip in year 2. And this has happened before. Look up Hopkins' first couple of seasons, and there was Michael Thomas in 2016. And we can go back to Moss, so it looks like maybe every three or four years there's a 1st year WR1. So for year one breakouts, I think we need to see four or five over two seasons before we can call it an escalating trend. And even the second season breakouts to WR1 are still rare.

I think year three is still the path for fantasy managers to try to track.

This is an article tracking WRs from 2000 - 2010

https://www.draftsharks.com/article/whe ... %20rookies.

It defines a top 24 season as a "breakout", but I believe it exemplifies the growing trend that WRs are breaking out earlier than ever before and I believe this trend has only increased since then.

3rd year breakouts still happen but I've personally moved the target year to year 2.