Is CeeDee Lamb being over-valued right now as WR3 in Dynasty startups?

[TheTroll]

Man… I traded away CeeDee and my 2024 first (will be 1.06) for JJ and his 2024 first (will be either 1.07 or 1.08). For 2023 this cost me a playoff run. CeeDee has been playing amazing

[tstafford]

Man… I traded away CeeDee and my 2024 first (will be 1.06) for JJ and his 2024 first (will be either 1.07 or 1.08). For 2023 this cost me a playoff run. CeeDee has been playing amazing

I wouldn't regret that deal on long term value. I offered Lamb for Chase after the Burrow injury and was declined.

[tstafford]

As to the initial question of this thread, I think Lamb is very clearly the WR3 for fantasy. I had him in a tier by himself going in to this season and drafted him at the 1.12 in an SF start-up.

I think there's a good learning from Lamb this season - he took a dip after some mediocre FF results and a lot of us (myself included) questioned if he was more appropriately viewed as in a tier with AJB/ARSB/etc. That was wrong and it was reactionary. We need to be more faithful about talent and more patient generally.

Lamb is going to be 25 next season and Dak isn't going anywhere. The only caveat is that I could see Lamb might not be too thrilled to play on the fifth year option. But obviously Dallas needs to sign him to an extension. Of course similar contract risk exists with JJ as well.

[CGW]

Such a good reread to see how terrible we all are at being so extreme with our takes. It's what makes dynasty so frustrating, but at the same time, as much fun as it is. CeeDee was just a WR2. Dak couldn't support a WR1. CeeDee cant win on the outside. CeeDee cant beat primary coverage.

Looks like CD is going to finish as the WR1 or possibly the WR2 on the season if Hill puts up a monster game to overtake him. He's going to get extended in Dallas and be tied to Dak for the foreseeable future. Not sure how he wouldn't be officially the WR3 if not higher at this point.

I think we jumped too quickly from the old standard "it takes three years for a WR to breakout" all the way to "if they aren't a WR1 their rookie year they never will be". Truth is probably in the middle. I want my rookies to perform, but expecting every rookie to be JJ year 1 is a lot. Steady improvements is still a positive indicator, and why I'm willing to continue buying into Olave and Wilson right now despite some of the negatives surrounding their respective situations.

[TheTroll]

Such a good reread to see how terrible we all are at being so extreme with our takes. It's what makes dynasty so frustrating, but at the same time, as much fun as it is. CeeDee was just a WR2. Dak couldn't support a WR1. CeeDee cant win on the outside. CeeDee cant beat primary coverage.

Looks like CD is going to finish as the WR1 or possibly the WR2 on the season if Hill puts up a monster game to overtake him. He's going to get extended in Dallas and be tied to Dak for the foreseeable future. Not sure how he wouldn't be officially the WR3 if not higher at this point.

I think we jumped too quickly from the old standard "it takes three years for a WR to breakout" all the way to "if they aren't a WR1 their rookie year they never will be". Truth is probably in the middle. I want my rookies to perform, but expecting every rookie to be JJ year 1 is a lot. Steady improvements is still a positive indicator, and why I'm willing to continue buying into Olave and Wilson right now despite some of the negatives surrounding their respective situations.

Solid post CGW

[Cameron Giles]

If you ever wanted to read a thread that shows how impatient dynasty has become, read through this one.

[gpaok]

I have to thank Lamb for my last two championships!! He has been solid if not great for years now and almost a trend that after the first 2-3 weeks folks hit the panic button!

[gpaok]

Such a good reread to see how terrible we all are at being so extreme with our takes. It's what makes dynasty so frustrating, but at the same time, as much fun as it is. CeeDee was just a WR2. Dak couldn't support a WR1. CeeDee cant win on the outside. CeeDee cant beat primary coverage.

Looks like CD is going to finish as the WR1 or possibly the WR2 on the season if Hill puts up a monster game to overtake him. He's going to get extended in Dallas and be tied to Dak for the foreseeable future. Not sure how he wouldn't be officially the WR3 if not higher at this point.

I think we jumped too quickly from the old standard "it takes three years for a WR to breakout" all the way to "if they aren't a WR1 their rookie year they never will be". Truth is probably in the middle. I want my rookies to perform, but expecting every rookie to be JJ year 1 is a lot. Steady improvements is still a positive indicator, and why I'm willing to continue buying into Olave and Wilson right now despite some of the negatives surrounding their respective situations.

Solid post and also imagine what Wilson and Olave would do with a

[PPE82]

I can’t see any logical argument for Chase being valued above Lamb at this point.

Look at production for the last three years.

Chase had a spectacular rookie year, but it was propped up by an unsustainable 18 YPR. Since then he has battled nagging injuries and is, imo, very boom or bust.

Tied to a good young QB: Wash
Production Overall: Lamb
PPG Production: Wash
Health: Lamb
Consistency: Lamb
Age: Wash

Someone please explain to me what the arguments would be for Chase > Lamb.

[Jigga94]

I can’t see any logical argument for Chase being valued above Lamb at this point.

Look at production for the last three years.

Chase had a spectacular rookie year, but it was propped up by an unsustainable 18 YPR. Since then he has battled nagging injuries and is, imo, very boom or bust.

Tied to a good young QB: Wash
Production Overall: Lamb
PPG Production: Wash
Health: Lamb
Consistency: Lamb
Age: Wash

Someone please explain to me what the arguments would be for Chase > Lamb.

It used to be mainly about Burrow, but I've had Lamb in the top group for a bit. Personally, I don't see much gap between JJ, Chase, Lamb, AJB, ARSB, Wilson, Olave, etc etc. Sure you can have preferences, but most of these guys are all liable to have blow up games and all have strong floors. Situations may change but I view these guys as elite no matter their team and would not spend much of anything to move from one to the other. Getting into this Elite WR tier is a different story. I'm always trying to upgrade the DK and Tee types when possible

[Mike11]

I can’t see any logical argument for Chase being valued above Lamb at this point.

Look at production for the last three years.

Chase had a spectacular rookie year, but it was propped up by an unsustainable 18 YPR. Since then he has battled nagging injuries and is, imo, very boom or bust.

Tied to a good young QB: Wash
Production Overall: Lamb
PPG Production: Wash
Health: Lamb
Consistency: Lamb
Age: Wash

Someone please explain to me what the arguments would be for Chase > Lamb.

It used to be mainly about Burrow, but I've had Lamb in the top group for a bit. Personally, I don't see much gap between JJ, Chase, Lamb, AJB, ARSB, Wilson, Olave, etc etc. Sure you can have preferences, but most of these guys are all liable to have blow up games and all have strong floors. Situations may change but I view these guys as elite no matter their team and would not spend much of anything to move from one to the other. Getting into this Elite WR tier is a different story. I'm always trying to upgrade the DK and Tee types when possible

I hear you but definitely don't think they're interchangeable after JJ/Chase/Lamb. As per usual these guys values will always fluctuate but Olave hasn't done enough to be considered even close to those big 3 and Wilson has shown flashes but again - if you had Lamb/Chase/JJ you're going to need a mid first+ on top of those guys to move off them. That's a clear tier gap even if ranking wise I agree with your list mostly. I think Amon Ra has shown enough with age to be ahead of AJB too but that's a nit pick.

[Jigga94]

I can’t see any logical argument for Chase being valued above Lamb at this point.

Look at production for the last three years.

Chase had a spectacular rookie year, but it was propped up by an unsustainable 18 YPR. Since then he has battled nagging injuries and is, imo, very boom or bust.

Tied to a good young QB: Wash
Production Overall: Lamb
PPG Production: Wash
Health: Lamb
Consistency: Lamb
Age: Wash

Someone please explain to me what the arguments would be for Chase > Lamb.

It used to be mainly about Burrow, but I've had Lamb in the top group for a bit. Personally, I don't see much gap between JJ, Chase, Lamb, AJB, ARSB, Wilson, Olave, etc etc. Sure you can have preferences, but most of these guys are all liable to have blow up games and all have strong floors. Situations may change but I view these guys as elite no matter their team and would not spend much of anything to move from one to the other. Getting into this Elite WR tier is a different story. I'm always trying to upgrade the DK and Tee types when possible

I hear you but definitely don't think they're interchangeable after JJ/Chase/Lamb. As per usual these guys values will always fluctuate but Olave hasn't done enough to be considered even close to those big 3 and Wilson has shown flashes but again - if you had Lamb/Chase/JJ you're going to need a mid first+ on top of those guys to move off them. That's a clear tier gap even if ranking wise I agree with your list mostly. I think Amon Ra has shown enough with age to be ahead of AJB too but that's a nit pick.

My point wasn't about value, but them all being elite talents who could all outscore each other any given week. Obviously Chase is worth more than Olave. My point is, are you really helping your team by giving up Olave+++ for Chase? In most cases, I'd venture no. Any of these guys can get banged up at the wrong time or have their situation around them change in the blink of an eye. Any of these guys could go for 30 any given week, you just need to have enough of them. Speculating on WR2 vs 3 vs 4 is silly. It's never going to work out that way through a whole season and then by the next season, people are ready to do it all again

[murphysxm]

I have shifted my philosophy of "dynasty rankings" for WR's. There are about 10 WR's I think could be WR1 in any given year. About 5 that I expect to be fighting for top 3 if healthy for the foreseeable future. I would rather acquire the ones that are the lowest cost. For example, I think Lamb is more valuable than ARSB, but the acquisition costs make me target ARSB if given the choice.

[Mike11]

I have shifted my philosophy of "dynasty rankings" for WR's. There are about 10 WR's I think could be WR1 in any given year. About 5 that I expect to be fighting for top 3 if healthy for the foreseeable future. I would rather acquire the ones that are the lowest cost. For example, I think Lamb is more valuable than ARSB, but the acquisition costs make me target ARSB if given the choice.

I generally agree on that especially since now isn't a good time to buy Lamb for reference. I do think 3 weeks ago Lamb and ARSB would've been worth a similar amount and not cost nearly as much to tier up but who knows how the owners view them.

[Cameron Giles]

The longer you play dynasty, the less ADP matters. It seems like big trades where people pay Olave+++ for Chase or something just don't happen much.