Valuing Older QBs

[Pullo Vision]

Dipping my toe in SF waters. In 1 QB, you'll struggle to get 1sts for anyone but the elite guys. How do you value QBs in the 30+ age range, whether short term options like Ryan/Brady or the high end producers like Stafford and Wilson?

[zaner75]

One thing to understand when trading QBs in SF is that the trade price is likely to increase if there is no QB going back, especially if the QB being traded is a consistent starting lineup player.

High producing vet QBs like Stafford, R Wilson, Rodgers are, or are likely to be, viewed as QB1s by their managers so their price is usually multiple 1sts value (for example, starting lineup caliber player + future 1st)

Brady is/has been in a unique situation for a while because he is producing QB1 seasons but his trade value is depressed because he has been basically a year-to-year proposition for many people for a number of years. Imo, he is the ultimate win-now QB asset and his trade value is strictly defined by this limited market. Contender 1st is the likely price to acquire. If a contender already rosters Brady, he probably falls into the value range of Stafford, R Wilson, Rodgers above. A desperate rebuild team may take a random 2nd + upside player to realize any value before Brady retires (for good).

The vet QB2 range is pretty vast. At the top are QBs like Carr, Cousins, maybe Tannehill who are likely to be valued in the future 1st and/or upside player. The lower range (Ryan, Wentz, Winston, Goff, D Jones, etc.) are usually unappealing to acquiring managers (for a variety of reasons - limited job security, limited scoring upside, etc) therefore the pieces offered (future 2nds, bench/depth players) are unappealing to the trading manager. My personal credo is that it takes a future 1st in talks for pretty much any projected week 1 starting QB that is expected to hold that position for the year.

The way I roster build in SF, I am a "have" team at QB as I have settled QB rooms, often with depth (4+ starters, many with stable job security). As a "have", I see no reason to move a QB unless the trade helps me with whatever my team goals are as I know the buyer is improving their team by acquiring a starting QB to use in their lineup. Buyers (at least in the leagues I am in) usually do not see that side of the equation, only thinking that the asking price is too high but they are not the ones with the leverage and even if they don't make a trade with me, I see them pay the price I was asking for, or even more, in other trades.

[Pullo Vision]

One thing to understand when trading QBs in SF is that the trade price is likely to increase if there is no QB going back, especially if the QB being traded is a consistent starting lineup player.

High producing vet QBs like Stafford, R Wilson, Rodgers are, or are likely to be, viewed as QB1s by their managers so their price is usually multiple 1sts value (for example, starting lineup caliber player + future 1st)

Brady is/has been in a unique situation for a while because he is producing QB1 seasons but his trade value is depressed because he has been basically a year-to-year proposition for many people for a number of years. Imo, he is the ultimate win-now QB asset and his trade value is strictly defined by this limited market. Contender 1st is the likely price to acquire. If a contender already rosters Brady, he probably falls into the value range of Stafford, R Wilson, Rodgers above. A desperate rebuild team may take a random 2nd + upside player to realize any value before Brady retires (for good).

The vet QB2 range is pretty vast. At the top are QBs like Carr, Cousins, maybe Tannehill who are likely to be valued in the future 1st and/or upside player. The lower range (Ryan, Wentz, Winston, Goff, D Jones, etc.) are usually unappealing to acquiring managers (for a variety of reasons - limited job security, limited scoring upside, etc) therefore the pieces offered (future 2nds, bench/depth players) are unappealing to the trading manager. My personal credo is that it takes a future 1st in talks for pretty much any projected week 1 starting QB that is expected to hold that position for the year.

The way I roster build in SF, I am a "have" team at QB as I have settled QB rooms, often with depth (4+ starters, many with stable job security). As a "have", I see no reason to move a QB unless the trade helps me with whatever my team goals are as I know the buyer is improving their team by acquiring a starting QB to use in their lineup. Buyers (at least in the leagues I am in) usually do not see that side of the equation, only thinking that the asking price is too high but they are not the ones with the leverage and even if they don't make a trade with me, I see them pay the price I was asking for, or even more, in other trades.

Wow. Appreciate the input so much. I've read this reply several times. I usually try to build a pipeline for which position has the most value in a league. Like you mention here, I'm trying to turn myself into a QB have team.

Regarding Rodgers, has he slipped into the year to year proposition, or did the extension kill that? Paying a 1st for Brady for a one year rental seems excessive. Who are considered good value gets? I'm beginning to think Carr should be a target.

[zaner75]

Wow. Appreciate the input so much. I've read this reply several times. I usually try to build a pipeline for which position has the most value in a league. Like you mention here, I'm trying to turn myself into a QB have team.

Regarding Rodgers, has he slipped into the year to year proposition, or did the extension kill that? Paying a 1st for Brady for a one year rental seems excessive. Who are considered good value gets? I'm beginning to think Carr should be a target.

Rodgers' mercurial temperament puts him into the year-to-year conversation as he could decide to retire at the end of any season but his contract details give more insight into how long the Packers are expecting him to play. I think it's 2 years (2022 + 2023) based upon the dead cap hit. After 2023, it looks year to year, imo. (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-p ... ers-3745/ )
I think Carr is definitely being overlooked as he is younger than many of the other vet QB2 types and has more stable job security than the others.
Of the others, one that stands out most is Wentz. He is young enough to be a possible longer-term option but being on his 3rd team in 3 years may have lowered his value significantly. He is someone I'd take a shot on at a future 2nd price tag.
Jameis Winston is another starter that may be acquirable at a good price and has multi-year starter in his range of outcomes.
Barring those, the others are gambles on performing well enough to become more than just a one year plug-n-play (Mariota, Trubisky, D Jones, Mills, Goff) or are backups now that could find an opportunity (Garoppolo, Mayfield, Huntley). I think the latter are likely to be cheaper to acquire and are good stash players at the position.