Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[wickerkat1212]

Daniels or Maye, who do you like?

If Daniels WAS and Maye NEP, Daniels, right?
If Maye WAS and Daniels NEP, is it Maye?
Or do you like one better no matter what?

I'm still not convinced that NEP is such a horrible landing spot. Things change quickly in the NFL, the coaching staff is entirely different - particularly the OC. But dynasty has become a "what have you done for me lately" game w/ rookies. I'd prefer to take Daniels but I suppose it's silly to ignore landing spot.

If it does work out that Maye goes to NEP, I think the next question is him or Odunze at 1.05. That's a really tough one. But more and more I think the right call is usually going to be Maye.

I'm really torn on Maye, he's a polarizing prospect.

[trc]

I'm really torn on Maye, he's a polarizing prospect.

Isn’t Daniels the polarising of the two?

[tstafford]

I'm really torn on Maye, he's a polarizing prospect.

Isn’t Daniels the polarising of the two?

Both Maye and Daniels have their detractors. For the most part, the analysts seem high on Daniels and more mixed on Maye. The FF community is scared of Daniels' frame (injuries/RG3).

[wickerkat1212]

I'm really torn on Maye, he's a polarizing prospect.

Isn’t Daniels the polarising of the two?

Both Maye and Daniels have their detractors. For the most part, the analysts seem high on Daniels and more mixed on Maye. The FF community is scared of Daniels' frame (injuries/RG3).

Right. Both have flags which is why I'm not excited to take either at 1.02 in Superflex and will probably take Harrison.

[HippieJuice]

Isn’t Daniels the polarising of the two?

me too and it's not close

Both Maye and Daniels have their detractors. For the most part, the analysts seem high on Daniels and more mixed on Maye. The FF community is scared of Daniels' frame (injuries/RG3).

Right. Both have flags which is why I'm not excited to take either at 1.02 in Superflex and will probably take Harrison.

[tstafford]

Totally fine to take MHJR over the QB2. But to say it's not close, I don't know.

[Hankybro21]

Not everybody else, but I will acknowledge that the perception of him right now attaches massive value.

And the value piece was kinda what I was getting. I'm sitting on a tradeback from Caleb, where I'd get Daniels or Maye and pick up an early 25 1 and a mid 25 1 on top. Excited to see if the draft helps sort this all out a bit better

Does the trade down give you the choice of Maye or Daniels? Or will it yield you the 3rd QB? Asking because I'd for sure do a deal that got me the choice of the QB2 in return for those picks. That's a ton of value. Obviously CW is a terrific prospect but I don't believe the gap for FF is two first round picks. I'd for sure take it if I got to choose b/w Maye/Daniels (and the option for a WR as well). The top of this draft is so good.

Yea it'd give me the choice of QB2 if I moved off of Caleb in this deal

[Shcritters]

And the value piece was kinda what I was getting. I'm sitting on a tradeback from Caleb, where I'd get Daniels or Maye and pick up an early 25 1 and a mid 25 1 on top. Excited to see if the draft helps sort this all out a bit better

Does the trade down give you the choice of Maye or Daniels? Or will it yield you the 3rd QB? Asking because I'd for sure do a deal that got me the choice of the QB2 in return for those picks. That's a ton of value. Obviously CW is a terrific prospect but I don't believe the gap for FF is two first round picks. I'd for sure take it if I got to choose b/w Maye/Daniels (and the option for a WR as well). The top of this draft is so good.

Yea it'd give me the choice of QB2 if I moved off of Caleb in this deal

I think moving from CW to the 2nd QB in this draft along with an early 2025 1st and a mid 2025 1st is a good deal for non-CW side. That seems like an overpay.

Picks can always bust, but that's the type of overpay I'd need to move off of the 1.01 in this draft.

[mild]

Scott Barrett, one of the better analytical/stat based follows, and CEO of FantasyPoints:

If an NFL team paid me $50,000 to do an analytics report on all of the top wide receivers in the class, this is exactly how detailed and thorough I'd go

They didn't. So here it is for you for free:

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/artic ... y-rankings

As close to a must-read as I could recommend at this point in the season.

From the top high-level thoughts:

This is supposedly one of the best and deepest WR classes in recent memory.

The deepest? Maybe. Just be sure to remember that the NFL’s conception of “deep” is much different than ours. In fantasy football, upside is everything; a WR1 like Drake London is still worth something like 1000X that of Tre Tucker, Velus Jones Jr., Danny Gray, and Jalen Tolbert combined. The NFL Mock Draft Cognoscenti can get very excited about WR4s who contribute on special teams, but those players shouldn’t be very high on our radar.

The best? Almost certainly not.

ESPN’s Matt Miller speculated we could see eight WRs drafted in Round 1. But I’d give only three WRs from this class a Round 1 grade. Granted, those three WRs are freaking awesome — I have this year’s WR3 ranked above any WR from the last two Draft classes. But after the Big-3, I’m not seeing any WRs with real WR1-upside. I’m just seeing a whole lot of landing spot-dependent WR2s and WR3s.

The most overrated? Possibly. This is not a great draft class based on the analytics. At the very least, it doesn’t look anywhere near as strong or as deep as 2021.

Genuinely, I don’t ever remember a WR class where the film and analytics were so misaligned. And it almost felt as though the less I liked a player’s analytics, the more highly regarded they were by the Mock Draft Industrial Complex. (The inverse of this was true as well.)

Perhaps it’s just that our most predictive metrics don’t matter as much as they used to, now in the COVID / NIL / transfer portal era. Multiple WRs from this class lost their high school senior season or had a shortened college freshman season due to COVID. This would, understandably, impact age-adjusted production or efficiency metrics – our most predictive variables at the WR position. Furthermore, early declare status (which, mind you, was overrated to begin with) should be considered far less predictive now as players are financially incentivized to stay in school longer. But even with all of this factored in, the class looks massively overrated from an analytics perspective.

Always nice to hear a contrarian take of cold water being thrown on the rookie fever fire at this time of year.

I'd recommend the full read, especially for those still getting a handle on which of the analytics metrics actually matter. (Some of the charts getting spammed around here are pretty niche / hilarious)

[wickerkat1212]

Do any of you guys think Nix or Penix are going to be actual NFL starters? Does it all come down to whether or not somebody takes them in the first round?

[BabyChark23]

Do any of you guys think Nix or Penix are going to be actual NFL starters? Does it all come down to whether or not somebody takes them in the first round?

Nix looks absolutely awful to me. So many red flags. As deep as this class is everywhere else, I wouldn’t touch him until the 3rd round at earliest, even in SF.

[tstafford]

Do any of you guys think Nix or Penix are going to be actual NFL starters? Does it all come down to whether or not somebody takes them in the first round?

Nix looks absolutely awful to me. So many red flags. As deep as this class is everywhere else, I wouldn’t touch him until the 3rd round at earliest, even in SF.

I agree that Nix looks pretty bad. I'm waiting to see what the NFL does with these guys. My hope is they drop and we don't have to debate them as late first round SF picks. But if they go in the first, we have to think about. First round QBs get to start - at least for a minute. Regardless - if I need a QB and I hold a late first I'm trying to trade for the likes of Baker, Cousins, etc.

[TheTroll]

Do any of you guys think Nix or Penix are going to be actual NFL starters? Does it all come down to whether or not somebody takes them in the first round?

Nix looks absolutely awful to me. So many red flags. As deep as this class is everywhere else, I wouldn’t touch him until the 3rd round at earliest, even in SF.

I agree that Nix looks pretty bad. I'm waiting to see what the NFL does with these guys. My hope is they drop and we don't have to debate them as late first round SF picks. But if they go in the first, we have to think about. First round QBs get to start - at least for a minute. Regardless - if I need a QB and I hold a late first I'm trying to trade for the likes of Baker, Cousins, etc.

LV
MIN
DEN

All need QBs now so if they get drafted by any of these 3, they are almost guaranteed to start at some point this season

[FantasyFreak]

I'm just really not all that excited about this class. There's a few excellent WR prospects at the top, but the QB's are iffy, the RB class is weak, and the the TE class looks OK, but overall, I'm just not a huge fan. I've moved up into the top 3 in a SF, and in other leagues, I'll likely try and move out of the late first when the time comes, to punt the pick down the road and get something on top, or move it for a player already in the league.

[Bronco Billy]

I'm just really not all that excited about this class. There's a few excellent WR prospects at the top, but the QB's are iffy, the RB class is weak, and the the TE class looks OK, but overall, I'm just not a huge fan. I've moved up into the top 3 in a SF, and in other leagues, I'll likely try and move out of the late first when the time comes, to punt the pick down the road and get something on top, or move it for a player already in the league.

I agree that this class is overrated. Each of the top 4 QB prospects still have very real significant flaws in their games that would prevent ascension to being elite at the NFL level, and that definitely includes CW the Chosen One. Now, that said I think each of the 4 has enough good qualities that they can all be solid to good long term starters, but they’re all going to have to completely remake part of their game to have any chance of being great, and that’s no small task. The next 2 are very questionable in my mind that they can be more than good backup/part time starters.

The WR class is IMO awesome at the top 3, but after that I see a large group of WRs that have some significant issues and are going to really have to up their games significantly to become impact guys - and some of them simply are not going to be capable of doing it. The real question becomes which are which in that large grouping? There are some guys that are in the 3rd and 4th tier of WRs that I believe are closer to helping FF teams as WR3/flex players than more than a few of the guys at that 2nd level who may flame out when they see what NFL DBs will do to them and have no response.

The RB class is better IMO than what is being projected by many, but then these guys have been a target for derision for quite a while by the FF groupthink. I don’t see a legit stud bellcow in the bunch, but I do see enough guys with enough positive qualities that they’ll be able to earn enough opportunity to become feasible RB2s/flex at the next level. Some FFers are only interested in studs - and everyone wants those guys on their rosters - but there’s very real value in reliable guys that can round out your starting lineup or fill in solidly when your stud goes down. For some reason some FFers just don’t see any value in those kinds of guys.

The TE group is thin. I don’t see Bowers as the generational player many are making him out to be IMO. He’s going to have to be in the right system with the right HC to be more than a situational guy. There are a lot of D players at the NFL level that can run with him and are strong enough to manage his size, and he’s got a long ways to go in his blocking to get on the field full time. The rest of the group has some real questions with the exception of what I see are a couple of guys well rounded enough to play in all situations and athletic enough to earn sufficient targets to fight their way into being top 10 FF TEs, and that will still likely take a couple of years for them to get there. I’m not optimistic than any others can make that leap given their shortcomings. Last year was the year to be scarfing up TEs.

Just my opinion.