Somewhat early 2024 Draft thread

[Cameron Giles]

I get that MHJR not testing is frustrating. But if the NFL doesn't care (as evidenced by his actual draft capital) then I'd argue we shouldn't either. If he drops, then I'm with you.

Also, keep in mind that NFL scouts saw him last year at Ohio State's pro day.

During Wednesday's Pro Day, as Stroud performed the throwing portion of his workout, Harrison Jr. ran routes for his former quarterback. While the young wide receiver isn't eligible for the draft until next year, he still managed to earn the attention of everyone in attendance. According to ESPN's Jordan Reid, one NFL scout stated that watching Marvin Harrison Jr. was “Like window shopping at a Lamborghini dealership for the model that doesn’t come out until next year.”

[FantasyFreak]

Nabers ran a reported 4.34 at the LSU pro day

Further confirms to me that hes still my WR1

Edit he also has a
• Vertical jump: 42"
• Broad jump: 10'9"

Me too.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Not that Williams was a bad prospect or something, but I just don't ever remember him looking like Harrison or being talked about as a similar level of prospect. He's been marked as the favorite to be the first non QB off the board for two straight years and we've seen nothing to make us question that.

Granted, tape isn't everything, but some players are just so plainly elite that you don't even second guess it because of a lack of testing.

Yeah, all fair. If he had the juice, he’d probably want to show it off though. Chase had nothing to gain either but still showed it off.

Or, maybe not. Maybe he just doesn’t give a crap. Very possible. I’m just saying, Nabers is an electric player. And now he’s backed it up. Why not go with the surer thing. Just my opinion anyway

Edit: here’s another hot take. I’d take Odunze over MHJ as well.

I get that MHJR not testing is frustrating. But if the NFL doesn't care (as evidenced by his actual draft capital) then I'd argue we shouldn't either. If he drops, then I'm with you.

Not saying I’m right or wrong, I just don’t like testing dodgers. Who was it last year I was saying I was dropping on my “board” because he refused to test at the combine. JSN I think? Nabers dodged the combine I think? but at least he blew the roof off his pro day.

Anyway, when you have two other players that are arguably just as good on film, similar production, similar draft capital, with off the charts athleticism, why not go with them. Whether he drops or not on an NFL board is sort of irrelevant to me.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Maybe not the place for it, but I've been thinking that analytical/statistical modeling of incoming rookies may become increasingly difficult to do in the future. For the top draft eligible players, they've already been informed by NFL scouting departments what kind of draft grade they're sitting on prior to declaring. It's why some athletes decide to return to school versus coming out early if they don't like what they're hearing.

And, if you know you're already highly thought of what do you have to gain by participating in the combine/pro days? You can prove you're worth the evaluation you've already been given, or have a bad day and sow a little doubt. If this trend of non-participation by top athletes continues, or becomes more commonplace, where does the analytic information on these players come from?

Yeah all this is a bit frustrating. Probably more of a reliance on the in game tracking I would assume. Which, I think that stuff is good, but it’s not a 1 to 1 replacement for the combine.

[mild]

I get that MHJR not testing is frustrating. But if the NFL doesn't care (as evidenced by his actual draft capital) then I'd argue we shouldn't either. If he drops, then I'm with you.

This. And we should all be here anyway, frankly.

via Winks:

The key thing with WR draft modeling is that once you add in draft capital, every stat from our spreadsheets add almost zero predictive power. Eat Arby’s.

Testing and advanced stats is great and all, but Draft Capital remains the biggest of the big kahuna burgers when we talk about WR's and predictive models.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

via Winks:

The key thing with WR draft modeling is that once you add in draft capital, every stat from our spreadsheets add almost zero predictive power. Eat Arby’s.

Testing and advanced stats is great and all, but Draft Capital remains the biggest of the big kahuna burgers when we talk about WR's and predictive models.

That isn't true though when you break down WR's into subgroups. Shorter and taller WR's are not the same. Valhalla's thread about BMI for example. The talking heads of the draft and of fantasy football don't do this type of stuff because it's time consuming and also requires a bit of creativity.

[TheTroll]

Nabers ran a reported 4.34 at the LSU pro day

Further confirms to me that hes still my WR1

Edit he also has a
• Vertical jump: 42"
• Broad jump: 10'9"

Me too.

I love that the LSU studs are all rising right now. A lot can happen but I’m a proud Alumni!

[Cameron Giles]

via Winks:

The key thing with WR draft modeling is that once you add in draft capital, every stat from our spreadsheets add almost zero predictive power. Eat Arby’s.

Testing and advanced stats is great and all, but Draft Capital remains the biggest of the big kahuna burgers when we talk about WR's and predictive models.

That isn't true though when you break down WR's into subgroups. Shorter and taller WR's are not the same. Valhalla's thread about BMI for example. The talking heads of the draft and of fantasy football don't do this type of stuff because it's time consuming and also requires a bit of creativity.

But isn't the prevailing thought that draft capital already assumes all of this information anyway? The NFL has every stat that we have and more.

I get the frustration from people who love data, but at some point if the league is saying it doesn't matter, then...it probably doesn't matter. We know he's not Mike Williams, because we watch football. We just don't have any tangible combine metrics to know for sure that he's Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, etc.

[Bronco Billy]

via Winks:



Testing and advanced stats is great and all, but Draft Capital remains the biggest of the big kahuna burgers when we talk about WR's and predictive models.

That isn't true though when you break down WR's into subgroups. Shorter and taller WR's are not the same. Valhalla's thread about BMI for example. The talking heads of the draft and of fantasy football don't do this type of stuff because it's time consuming and also requires a bit of creativity.

But isn't the prevailing thought that draft capital already assumes all of this information anyway? The NFL has every stat that we have and more.

I get the frustration from people who love data, but at some point if the league is saying it doesn't matter, then...it probably doesn't matter. We know he's not Mike Williams, because we watch football. We just don't have any tangible combine metrics to know for sure that he's Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, etc.

But but but no one has timed him running 40 yards in a tee shirt and shorts on a track. HUGE red flags!!! There’s no way if we know whether he can play football or not now.

[Jrblaha]

I get that MHJR not testing is frustrating. But if the NFL doesn't care (as evidenced by his actual draft capital) then I'd argue we shouldn't either. If he drops, then I'm with you.

Also, keep in mind that NFL scouts saw him last year at Ohio State's pro day.

During Wednesday's Pro Day, as Stroud performed the throwing portion of his workout, Harrison Jr. ran routes for his former quarterback. While the young wide receiver isn't eligible for the draft until next year, he still managed to earn the attention of everyone in attendance. According to ESPN's Jordan Reid, one NFL scout stated that watching Marvin Harrison Jr. was “Like window shopping at a Lamborghini dealership for the model that doesn’t come out until next year.”

I love MHjr and this comparison makes sense, but doesn’t it also lend itself to issues when the model does come out and no one can test drive it, but there’s other new car models out now this year, that test drive great?

[81-]

We talking test drives? LoL.

Marvin is Marvin. I watched his entire career. Good size, good speed, good athleticism, good hands. Little stiff sometimes if we are knit picking. Good pick.

I would not complain 1 iota if he was on my roster.

Now I am talking myself into trading for him

[Dynasty DeLorean]

via Winks:



Testing and advanced stats is great and all, but Draft Capital remains the biggest of the big kahuna burgers when we talk about WR's and predictive models.

That isn't true though when you break down WR's into subgroups. Shorter and taller WR's are not the same. Valhalla's thread about BMI for example. The talking heads of the draft and of fantasy football don't do this type of stuff because it's time consuming and also requires a bit of creativity.

But isn't the prevailing thought that draft capital already assumes all of this information anyway?

No. Draft Capital is really good but you can improve on it. The NFL doesn't have draft capital when they're doing their analysis but we do. It's an advantage to us. We just have to want to use that advantage. Clearly, some people don't.

[lic217]

Aj green vs Julio jones all over again. It’s a win win

[mild]

Nabers ran a reported 4.34 at the LSU pro day

Further confirms to me that hes still my WR1

Edit he also has a
• Vertical jump: 42"
• Broad jump: 10'9"

FWIW his 40 looks a lot more like a 4.5 than a 4.34.

https://twitter.com/jacoblogginsnba/sta ... 20806?s=46

Doesn't change a thing, of course. The tape is the tape.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Nabers ran a reported 4.34 at the LSU pro day

Further confirms to me that hes still my WR1

Edit he also has a
• Vertical jump: 42"
• Broad jump: 10'9"

FWIW his 40 looks a lot more like a 4.5 than a 4.34.

https://twitter.com/jacoblogginsnba/sta ... 20806?s=46

Doesn't change a thing, of course. The tape is the tape.

Seen someone else say 4.38-4.45, via the video, and says the guy you quoted is wrong. I’ve said this before, but even people doing it via video argue bc when to start the timer is a debate. Anyway, I think anything in that range is excellent. OBJ was a 4.43 for example. 4.50 is still perfectly fine but then we’re not talking about top end speed anymore. Being off by 0.16 is a lot, even for a hand time. 4.38-4.45 is more likely.