Malik Willis SF 1.01?

[halfbaked88]

The talent level of this draft is so uncertain that the QBs really come down to which spot they go in the NFL draft.

It's pointless trying to gauge where to take them in fantasy drafts right now.

If Malik is a top 8 pick in the NFL he's gonna be the 1.01.

If he goes 10-15 then likely the 1.04...

If he's outside the top 15 then he could be a late 1st round pick in fantasy drafts.

[mild]

This pick seems to be aging pretty well

I enjoyed it when you posted it, and I think it shows the correct amount of foresight for his ceiling in fantasy.

His profile is completely alarming when you dig into it. But no other QB in this draft has the fantasy scoring upside of Malik Willis. If you want to bet on elite athletic traits and take a moonshot swing: he's your guy.

I think so long as he's selected in the 1st round, there will be those that will consider taking him with a 1.01, for sure. Lamar went 32nd; if we redrafted that draft in SF it would be hard to see him not being the 1.02 behind Allen.

If he makes it to the Steelers at #20 then I would tout him as an obvious 1.01. I weigh the landing spot higher than where in the 1st round he is taken; so long as it is indeed the 1st round.

[halfbaked88]

The odds are always against good rookie QBs going to teams with favorable situations. The nature of draft position let's crappy teams take first shots at any good QB prospects.

Mac Jones kinda landed in a dream spot in hindsight. Even without any star talent around him, he inherited a wealth of Patriots coaching, experience and football culture. If Mac ended up with Matt Nagy and the Bears who knows what kind of year he would have had.

I think the question is, does the NFL think Malik is a good QB? I mean, good enough to spend an early 1st round pick on and just "how good" do they think he is? Or Kenny Pickett? Or Matt Corral. Etc etc i.e. who's going first, who's taking them, and when.

A lot would have to happen for Malik to make it to a team like the Steelers... The cost of moving up for a middling/contending team makes it really unfeasible. Recent example being the Niners and Trey Lance. Turns out their team was good enough to make the playoffs and didn't even need him this year. It's rare for a prospect like Lance to end up on a team like the Niners. Also kinda rare that Mac Jones made it to the Patriots.

Without the TLaws, Wilson's, Lances to push Malik down the draft board it's much more likely he just ends up getting drafted by a dumpster fire like Detroit, Houston, NYG versus actually making it to the Steelers or them spending a fortune to go get him.

Realistically, the best case scenario for Malik right now would be Carolina. In which case he's hands down the 1.01.

[MacDaddy123]

I think 1.01 is a bit high for Willis, but if he is your guy, go get him.

[honcho55]

The odds are always against good rookie QBs going to teams with favorable situations. The nature of draft position let's crappy teams take first shots at any good QB prospects.

Nice post, agree with all of it. I cut out this bit, though.

Isn’t this the game we play? Herbert drafted to the chargers, who had something there but I think had 4-5 wins? Burrow drafted to the atrocious bengals. Murray drafted to Arizona, I feel like they were a 3-4 win team prior? Obviously plenty of busts along the way, but it’s certainly not a good idea to dismiss a QB by being drafted to a junk team. This is why I still hold Tlaw and Wilson up for the moment. Fields, a little less sure, really unsure the Bears develop him even though I was super high pre-draft.

Willis in particular I haven’t really dug in on much though so maybe he’s LJax, maybe he’s a WR I’m the NFL, for all I know. I always start with WRs then go to RBs. Dunno why.

[NeverEndingRebuild]

The odds are always against good rookie QBs going to teams with favorable situations. The nature of draft position let's crappy teams take first shots at any good QB prospects.

Mac Jones kinda landed in a dream spot in hindsight. Even without any star talent around him, he inherited a wealth of Patriots coaching, experience and football culture. If Mac ended up with Matt Nagy and the Bears who knows what kind of year he would have had.

I think the question is, does the NFL think Malik is a good QB? I mean, good enough to spend an early 1st round pick on and just "how good" do they think he is? Or Kenny Pickett? Or Matt Corral. Etc etc i.e. who's going first, who's taking them, and when.

A lot would have to happen for Malik to make it to a team like the Steelers... The cost of moving up for a middling/contending team makes it really unfeasible. Recent example being the Niners and Trey Lance. Turns out their team was good enough to make the playoffs and didn't even need him this year. It's rare for a prospect like Lance to end up on a team like the Niners. Also kinda rare that Mac Jones made it to the Patriots.

Without the TLaws, Wilson's, Lances to push Malik down the draft board it's much more likely he just ends up getting drafted by a dumpster fire like Detroit, Houston, NYG versus actually making it to the Steelers or them spending a fortune to go get him.

Realistically, the best case scenario for Malik right now would be Carolina. In which case he's hands down the 1.01.

I like your post, but I'm curious to understand your reasoning behind Willis to Carolina being a good thing.
They have so many issues on the offensive side. From bad coaching to bottom of the barrel offensive line that allows one of the highest pressure rate in the league, lack of draft capital outside of the 1.06. I just feel like Carolina's coaching staff cannot afford to have their 1st rd pick sitting this year, and throwing a raw guy like him out there on day 1 would be a nightmare.

[halfbaked88]

Relative to the teams with draft picks ahead of Carolina. Obviously there's better landing spots. Denver at 1.09 would be the one. I suppose I like Carolina more because of CMC and DJ Moore at least being able to get open and produce. With the rushing upside I'm hoping they can make something happen fantasy wise, but still be pretty bad in real life.

The odds of Malik getting to DEN, or even WAS, is slim to none given the hype and rumors of being 1st QB off the board.

Looking at DET, HOU, NYG, ATL... Do any of those teams sound like a good place for Day 1 rookie QB to start? Detroit sort of pulled it together at the end of the year, but ehhh idk. Dan Campbell is a rah-rah type HC I don't think he has the IQ to be a lasting option frankly. HOU has been sneaky fantasy, over the years but, in a waiver wire darling kinda way. NYG and ATL inspire nothing.

The Jags weren't exactly great for TLaw, and they again have the #1 pick... That's a really disgraceful franchise.

Or the Jets for Z. Wilson, who are also picking with the top 5 again.

Malik to Carolina is basically relative to TLaw to Jax and Wilson to NYJ.... Point being there *realistically* is no great spot for highly drafted rookie QBs short of the stars aligning.

[murphysxm]

Point being there *realistically* is no great spot for highly drafted rookie QBs short of the stars aligning.

I am not sure this is the case. Just because QB's moved up the boards in year's past, doesn't mean they will this year. This class has less QB star power. I can totally see a scenario where there is only one QB drafted in the top 10 and nobody trades up. I think Denver will have choices

[Sriracha]

Point being there *realistically* is no great spot for highly drafted rookie QBs short of the stars aligning.

I am not sure this is the case. Just because QB's moved up the boards in year's past, doesn't mean they will this year. This class has less QB star power. I can totally see a scenario where there is only one QB drafted in the top 10 and nobody trades up. I think Denver will have choices

I don't expect this to happen, but I could easily see 0 QBs taken in the top 10 this year.

[FantasyFreak]

Point being there *realistically* is no great spot for highly drafted rookie QBs short of the stars aligning.

I am not sure this is the case. Just because QB's moved up the boards in year's past, doesn't mean they will this year. This class has less QB star power. I can totally see a scenario where there is only one QB drafted in the top 10 and nobody trades up. I think Denver will have choices

I don't expect this to happen, but I could easily see 0 QBs taken in the top 10 this year.

I could too.

[Ice]

I am not sure this is the case. Just because QB's moved up the boards in year's past, doesn't mean they will this year. This class has less QB star power. I can totally see a scenario where there is only one QB drafted in the top 10 and nobody trades up. I think Denver will have choices

I don't expect this to happen, but I could easily see 0 QBs taken in the top 10 this year.

I could too.

Possible but unlikely; Teams love to draft QB's and about 20 teams would like to take a bite of the Franchise QB apple even if it may poison.

That said, the best two players in this draft fantasy wise look to be Treylon Burks and Garrett Wilson in whichever order makes you happy regardless of SF or standard 12 team PPr leagues IMO.

They both look like high floor players with lock WR1 upside.

[mild]

I don't expect this to happen, but I could easily see 0 QBs taken in the top 10 this year.

I highly doubt that, particularly because I'm onto the Carolina Panthers at 6th overall.

I see it as a near-lock that they will take Kenny Pickett. I would gamble on this right now very willingly.

- They're absolutely desperate at the position and want a fix immediately.
- They absolutely can't help themselves with drafting/overdrafting/giving un-earned chances to former Rhule players.
- Rhule had a commit from Pickett for Temple. That relationship is already there. Rhule got the Baylor job; Pickett then de-committed from Temple for Pitt.
- David Tepper is an enormous Pitt booster / alum.
- They absolutely know that they must over-draft him at #6 if they want him. He won't be there in the 2nd, and you can't bank on a trade up being there for you on draft day. (And doing one pre-draft then signals your intent)

This one feels incredibly obvious - at least, to me.

[BabyChark23]

I don't expect this to happen, but I could easily see 0 QBs taken in the top 10 this year.

I highly doubt that, particularly because I'm onto the Carolina Panthers at 6th overall.

I see it as a near-lock that they will take Kenny Pickett. I would gamble on this right now very willingly.

- They're absolutely desperate at the position and want a fix immediately.
- They absolutely can't help themselves with drafting/overdrafting/giving un-earned chances to former Rhule players.
- Rhule had a commit from Pickett for Temple. That relationship is already there. Rhule got the Baylor job; Pickett then de-committed from Temple for Pitt.
- David Tepper is an enormous Pitt booster / alum.
- They absolutely know that they must over-draft him at #6 if they want him. He won't be there in the 2nd, and you can't bank on a trade up being there for you on draft day. (And doing one pre-draft then signals your intent)

This one feels incredibly obvious - at least, to me.

Agreed

[halfbaked88]

Didn't really think about the the Kenny Pickett / Matt Rhule connection. He is the most pro ready QB and it's kinda getting to the point where another poor season and front office / coaching jobs will begin to be in question. Reeks of desperation. They're still licking their chops from the Watson teaser. They're definitely taking a QB.

A few mocks I have seen have Detroit taking Malik and having him sit year one behind Goff. I kind of would prefer that to him being a Day 1 starter. Or vice versa is DET takes Pickett/someone else then Malik to CAR.

But:
-Maybe Davis Mills gets support in HOU and he's their guy.
-Maybe Daniel Jones 5th year option gets exercised.
-Maybe ATL let's Matt Ryan die in their backyard without any plan for the future.
-Maybe Malik makes it to Denver???

That's a lot of maybes. I don't think the Giants let Malik go without taking him at 1.05. I think they're so done with Daniel Jones. They're gonna have to absorb Saquon's contract, probably let him walk in free Agency, and restart the clock on the discount rookie QB contract again and try to rebuild.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't expect this to happen, but I could easily see 0 QBs taken in the top 10 this year.

I highly doubt that, particularly because I'm onto the Carolina Panthers at 6th overall.

I see it as a near-lock that they will take Kenny Pickett. I would gamble on this right now very willingly.

- They're absolutely desperate at the position and want a fix immediately.
- They absolutely can't help themselves with drafting/overdrafting/giving un-earned chances to former Rhule players.
- Rhule had a commit from Pickett for Temple. That relationship is already there. Rhule got the Baylor job; Pickett then de-committed from Temple for Pitt.
- David Tepper is an enormous Pitt booster / alum.
- They absolutely know that they must over-draft him at #6 if they want him. He won't be there in the 2nd, and you can't bank on a trade up being there for you on draft day. (And doing one pre-draft then signals your intent)

This one feels incredibly obvious - at least, to me.

I mean, they though Sam Darnold was good, so anything is possible.