Kyler Murray Thread

[mild]

Just thinking as simple as possible:

- Kyler Murray will be 27 next season
- He's been a good QB overall as a pro.
- There are multiple teams where he would be a significant upgrade (Atlanta, Washington, Tampa, New England, Las Vegas, Tennessee)
- Teams get desperate, especially when they aren't bad enough to draft a strong QB prospect.
- He's under contract through 2028. Team can always restructure to loosen up some cap.

I just don't see why there wouldn't be teams lining up for him. What's the plan to get a QB as good or better?

Very well articulated CG.

I concur on every point.

Add other teams with ageing veterans like Minnesota (Cousin's deal is up, and they'll be picking too high), their division foes in the LA Rams (future is murky for Stafford), hell - even Geno is on a year-to-year contract at age 33 (would anyone be surprised if he returned to being a pumpkin?) - it's highly unlikely that there won't be at least two teams bidding for Kyler, and possibly a lot more.

Never underestimate what a GM desperate to keep their job might do in an NFL offseason.

[Cameron Giles]

Barring some crazy injury, Kyler is going to have a list of suitors a mile long if he's available. Wentz got multiple shots, same with Baker, Teddy B, and plenty of others guys worse than Kyler.

Yeah, but I don't think anybody's arguing that. Of course he's going to get another shot. Disagree with a list of suitors a mile long. He's got a large contract, injury concerns and attitude concerns. Undoubtedly someone will take him, but I don't think teams will get into a giant bidding war over him.

There was a bidding war for Deshaun Watson after all the crap he did. There will absolutely be multiple teams going hard for Murray. QB still rules everything and can save the jobs of a regime falling out of favor.

[Cameron Giles]

Just thinking as simple as possible:

- Kyler Murray will be 27 next season
- He's been a good QB overall as a pro.
- There are multiple teams where he would be a significant upgrade (Atlanta, Washington, Tampa, New England, Las Vegas, Tennessee)
- Teams get desperate, especially when they aren't bad enough to draft a strong QB prospect.
- He's under contract through 2028. Team can always restructure to loosen up some cap.

I just don't see why there wouldn't be teams lining up for him. What's the plan to get a QB as good or better?

Very well articulated CG.

I concur on every point.

Add other teams with ageing veterans like Minnesota (Cousin's deal is up, and they'll be picking too high), their division foes in the LA Rams (future is murky for Stafford), hell - even Geno is on a year-to-year contract at age 33 (would anyone be surprised if he returned to being a pumpkin?) - it's highly unlikely that there won't be at least two teams bidding for Kyler, and possibly a lot more.

Never underestimate what a GM desperate to keep their job might do in an NFL offseason.

Exactly. Murray could have anywhere from 6-8 teams interested and half of those putting in serious offers. He's a good to (sometimes) very good 27 year old starting QB.

[murphysxm]

I hear all these points, but there are going to be atleast two QB prospect in the draft that make Kyler very unattractive, especially if you are a QB desperate team. Do I trade salary and picks for Murray, or just picks for better prospects?. Easy choice.

[murphysxm]

So, need to know more about the contract, not a lawyer, but the medical clause seems prohibitive.

[mild]

I hear all these points, but there are going to be atleast two QB prospect in the draft that make Kyler very unattractive, especially if you are a QB desperate team. Do I trade salary and picks for Murray, or just picks for better prospects?. Easy choice.

Arizona are preparing to throw away their entire 2023 season to ensure that one of those QB's is theirs. Remove one from the board.

Do you really believe that the price is going to be cheaper to get to 2nd overall for the rights to Drake Maye on a cost-controlled contract? I don't think so. (See: SF moving heaven and earth for Trey Lance 1.12 -> 1.03, and yet completely unable to make the Jets budge off of 1.02)

My guess is that a 2nd tanking team will quickly become apparent - and that no amount of offers will make them budge off of selecting Drake. (My candidates at this point are LAR, TB, LV, and TEN)

We've listed a lot of teams that will be "good, but not great" for a reason. They will be stuck in the NFL middle class. Kyler will represent a clear upgrade over their starter.

No clue why this is a controversial take but more power my dudes.

[FantasyFreak]

I hear all these points, but there are going to be atleast two QB prospect in the draft that make Kyler very unattractive, especially if you are a QB desperate team. Do I trade salary and picks for Murray, or just picks for better prospects?. Easy choice.

Arizona are preparing to throw away their entire 2023 season to ensure that one of those QB's is theirs. Remove one from the board.

Do you really believe that the price is going to be cheaper to get to 2nd overall for the rights to Drake Maye on a cost-controlled contract? I don't think so. (See: SF moving heaven and earth for Trey Lance 1.12 -> 1.03, and yet completely unable to make the Jets budge off of 1.02)

My guess is that a 2nd tanking team will quickly become apparent - and that no amount of offers will make them budge off of selecting Drake. (My candidates at this point are LAR, TB, LV, and TEN)

We've listed a lot of teams that will be "good, but not great" for a reason. They will be stuck in the NFL middle class. Kyler will represent a clear upgrade over their starter.

No clue why this is a controversial take but more power my dudes.

But still not good enough and likely costs more. Kyler is in a realm of QB (my opinion of course), that just isn't good enough to battle with the top guys unless he has everything around him totally set up, and that's not likely with that deal. He's a good QB, he's nowhere near elite. He may be an upgrade over teams current QB's, but will also cost more than their current one for that upgrade.

Kyler, IMO, keeps you stuck in middle class. Might make the playoffs, but exited when you face a top end QB/elite team with good QB (49ers type team)

I think one thing is fairly certain, regardless of people's views on Kyler. It is much more likely to be an NFC team that trades for him. That seems obvious.

[mild]

But still not good enough and likely costs more. Kyler is in a realm of QB (my opinion of course), that just isn't good enough to battle with the top guys unless he has everything around him totally set up, and that's not likely with that deal. He's a good QB, he's nowhere near elite. He may be an upgrade over teams current QB's, but will also cost more than their current one for that upgrade.

Kyler, IMO, keeps you stuck in middle class. Might make the playoffs, but exited when you face a top end QB/elite team with good QB (49ers type team)

That's your own evaluation, though.

It won't be the take of the GM's who are out of better options to upgrade at QB come June next year.

And as I've already shown you - that contract is truly not as prohibitive as you're making it out to be.

It's probable that it'll be bringing up the rear of the Top 10 QB contracts by this time next year. That's a perfectly fine price to pay if you think that price is relative to his talent level.

Last time I'll harp on it: with the cap set to jump significantly over the next 3 years - this contract will not be a blocker to any acquiring team once we get to actually having that conversation.

[FantasyFreak]

But still not good enough and likely costs more. Kyler is in a realm of QB (my opinion of course), that just isn't good enough to battle with the top guys unless he has everything around him totally set up, and that's not likely with that deal. He's a good QB, he's nowhere near elite. He may be an upgrade over teams current QB's, but will also cost more than their current one for that upgrade.

Kyler, IMO, keeps you stuck in middle class. Might make the playoffs, but exited when you face a top end QB/elite team with good QB (49ers type team)

That's your own evaluation, though.

It won't be the take of the GM's who are out of better options to upgrade at QB come June next year.

And as I've already shown you - that contract is truly not as prohibitive as you're making it out to be.

It's probable that it'll be bringing up the rear of the Top 10 QB contracts by this time next year. That's a perfectly fine price to pay if you think that price is relative to his talent level.

Last time I'll harp on it: with the cap set to jump significantly over the next 3 years - this contract will not be a blocker to any acquiring team once we get to actually having that conversation.

Don't want to turn this into an economics debate, but if you've seen the predictions of what will happen to the economy, in the next little while, and the NFL is still able to boost it's cap "significantly", we are all getting fleeced, not just the team trading for Kyler.

Any GM paying Kyler in that contract in the AFC will be fired within 2 years, IMO. He's not a top 7 QB in that conference, let alone the NFL, right now.

[Space Cowboy]

Where there’s smoke there’s fire. He seems like a malcontent who hasn’t developed as a passer. I’d trade him after the year if he hasn’t turned a corner. Can get three firsts and get a 3rd for Murray and a 4 I bet.

[mild]

Don't want to turn this into an economics debate, but if you've seen the predictions of what will happen to the economy, in the next little while, and the NFL is still able to boost it's cap "significantly", we are all getting fleeced, not just the team trading for Kyler.

Any GM paying Kyler in that contract in the AFC will be fired within 2 years, IMO. He's not a top 7 QB in that conference, let alone the NFL, right now.

You've just illustrated why the Kyler contract will be closer to an afterthought in his eventual sale. It's QB money, and the price is the price. It's not even Russell Wilson money.

A rudimentary understanding of inflation and the relative "value" of your dollar is all you need to get there. It might look like a big number - but the actual value of it is decreasing by the day. (And you're right that this process is in danger of really speeding up in the immediate future)

I don't really think we should be worried about whether or not the NFL will increase their salary cap dramatically. It's already happened, it's a $100bn deal - those contracts are already in place, and are effective immediately starting from this Friday.

[FantasyFreak]

Don't want to turn this into an economics debate, but if you've seen the predictions of what will happen to the economy, in the next little while, and the NFL is still able to boost it's cap "significantly", we are all getting fleeced, not just the team trading for Kyler.

Any GM paying Kyler in that contract in the AFC will be fired within 2 years, IMO. He's not a top 7 QB in that conference, let alone the NFL, right now.

You've just illustrated why the Kyler contract will be closer to an afterthought in his eventual sale. It's QB money, and the price is the price. It's not even Russell Wilson money.

A rudimentary understanding of inflation and the relative "value" of your dollar is all you need to get there. It might look like a big number - but the actual value of it is decreasing by the day. (And you're right that this process is in danger of really speeding up in the immediate future)

I don't really think we should be worried about whether or not the NFL will increase their salary cap dramatically. It's already happened, it's a $100bn deal - those contracts are already in place, and are effective immediately starting from this Friday.

Guess my point was, we're supposed to pay for it, one way or another, even though harder times may be ahead for many "regular" people, who are football fans. My streaming service for NFL recently went up to match this stuff, but their service has gotten worse, and we have commercials on top of the network commercials now. All the price we have to pay to make Kyler's deal a bargain. I'm at the point where I am not sure I want to pay much more, if this trend continues. It really depends how much you want to pay the NFL, in the end. I'm at my max, pretty much, if it continues to rise, I'll just phase football out and let others pay their exorbitant costs.

[mild]

Guess my point was, we're supposed to pay for it, one way or another, even though harder times may be ahead for many people, who are football fans.

Weird stance to take on Kyler Murray's future/contract that we're now at "but the Economy!" but ok.

The NFL has never cared about the financial plight of its fans - arguably they've consistently shown the opposite inclination - so no clue why we're expecting that to change now, nor raising it as a reasonable talking point for contract that dried it's ink over a year ago now.

[FantasyFreak]

Where there’s smoke there’s fire. He seems like a malcontent who hasn’t developed as a passer. I’d trade him after the year if he hasn’t turned a corner. Can get three firsts and get a 3rd for Murray and a 4 I bet.

Can you clarify this? You think you can get a 3rd and 4th for Murray, of 3 firsts, a 3 and 4? I feel like this is an omission or something...I think if they landed the 2nd overall pick they could get 3 firsts for it, and if the land the 1, more. If they get 1 AND 2, they could draft Caleb, trade the 2 for 3 firsts plus, and also trade Kyler.

[ericanadian]

Maybe I’m misunderstanding something, but why is Kyler’s contract prohibitive? $37M in 2024 would be peak for the receiving team. That’s Derek Carr money. Not sure how much sense it makes for the Cards to do this as they’ll have to eat the signing bonus and that would make 2024 a challenge even if you are resetting. It’s somewhat assumed you’d want to bring in some guys to help your new QB and trading Kyler before June 1st is adding like $30M.