Kyler Murray Thread

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:10 pm

ericanadian wrote: Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:02 pm Maybe I’m misunderstanding something, but why is Kyler’s contract prohibitive? $37M in 2024 would be peak for the receiving team. That’s Derek Carr money. Not sure how much sense it makes for the Cards to do this as they’ll have to eat the signing bonus and that would make 2024 a challenge even if you are resetting. It’s somewhat assumed you’d want to bring in some guys to help your new QB and trading Kyler before June 1st is adding like $30M.
His cap hit in 2024 is a shade under 52 million. You're looking at his base salary. Carr's cap hit next year is 35.5. Kyler's is almost 17 million more. There's bonuses etc tied into all of this, but Carr's hit to the overall team salary for the year is significantly less. Beyond that it rivals Carr a lot more, but the dead cap is vastly different too. The Saints have way more ability to play around with Carr's contract too, his 2027 cap hit is like 7 million, so if Carr has a decent few years, they can push stuff around (back) way more than anyone taking on Kyler's deal (2027 cap hit of 43.5).

I do agree with Mild, in that IF you think Kyler will be a top 10 QB for say, the next 4 years, this deal is not bad at all, it's just a big leap of faith considering Kyler's current status, and the red flags that are there with him (injury/attitude). If someone sees past that, they will indeed be willing to take that on, but I don't think anybody will pay significant draft capital, knowing the Cards situation, that they need to move Kyler if they want Caleb, so it's a buyers market, not a sellers.
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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Sep 04, 2023 5:48 am

murphysxm wrote: Sun Sep 03, 2023 3:07 pm I hear all these points, but there are going to be atleast two QB prospect in the draft that make Kyler very unattractive, especially if you are a QB desperate team. Do I trade salary and picks for Murray, or just picks for better prospects?. Easy choice.
I don't think anyone is saying that trading for Murray is better than drafting Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

But, Williams and Maye could end up being Top-2 picks in this draft. So, that means there are going to be a bunch of teams who are not bad enough to draft them. And if one of those teams is Arizona themselves, then that means only one other team has a chance at a better path.

That makes Murray appealing to 6-7 teams.

As usual, there will be ownership pressure on a lot of front offices to fix their QB problem.

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby ericanadian » Mon Sep 04, 2023 10:49 am

FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:10 pm
ericanadian wrote: Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:02 pm Maybe I’m misunderstanding something, but why is Kyler’s contract prohibitive? $37M in 2024 would be peak for the receiving team. That’s Derek Carr money. Not sure how much sense it makes for the Cards to do this as they’ll have to eat the signing bonus and that would make 2024 a challenge even if you are resetting. It’s somewhat assumed you’d want to bring in some guys to help your new QB and trading Kyler before June 1st is adding like $30M.
His cap hit in 2024 is a shade under 52 million. You're looking at his base salary. Carr's cap hit next year is 35.5. Kyler's is almost 17 million more. There's bonuses etc tied into all of this, but Carr's hit to the overall team salary for the year is significantly less. Beyond that it rivals Carr a lot more, but the dead cap is vastly different too. The Saints have way more ability to play around with Carr's contract too, his 2027 cap hit is like 7 million, so if Carr has a decent few years, they can push stuff around (back) way more than anyone taking on Kyler's deal (2027 cap hit of 43.5).

I do agree with Mild, in that IF you think Kyler will be a top 10 QB for say, the next 4 years, this deal is not bad at all, it's just a big leap of faith considering Kyler's current status, and the red flags that are there with him (injury/attitude). If someone sees past that, they will indeed be willing to take that on, but I don't think anybody will pay significant draft capital, knowing the Cards situation, that they need to move Kyler if they want Caleb, so it's a buyers market, not a sellers.
The gap in the two is based on the $13M hit for the signing bonus. That’s all dead money for Arizona if they trade him. The receiving team doesn’t bring over the cap hit from the signing bonus so far as I’m aware. If we’re talking about his contract for the Cards, yes, the cap hit is ugly. If we’re talking about an acquiring team, it seems pretty manageable even if they only view him as a mid-range starter.
All I Der Is Win - 16 Team IDP League (Pass TD 6pts)

QB - Stafford, Stroud, Tune
RB - Swift, Hall, Penny, Bigsby, Ford
WR - Pittman, Olave, Di. Johnson, G. Wilson, J. Williams, Metchie, Robinson, M. Wilson
TE - Okonkwo, Schoonmaker
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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Sep 04, 2023 11:26 pm

I nabbed him in a recent 12T Superflex startup, where he went around a mid First range. Seemed crazy cheap even tho I’m absolutely not a believer in him in terms of real life NFL talent
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/DK/G WILSON/D Adams, Pittman, Z Flowers, Evans
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/MINSHEW, Cousins, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
KELCE/KITTLE, LaPorta
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB (Joined in 22)
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE, Pollard
CHASE/G WILSON/AIYUK/DJM, Pittman, Diggs
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE (Started in 22)
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/BREECE, Pollard
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood, Thielen
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert, Chig
/
TEAM G - 12T, SF & TEP (Joined in 23)
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby mild » Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:02 pm

Our short Fire Hydrant King is BACK at Practice...

(Funny how the Modern Warfare 3 beta ended Monday now he's back at practice... hmmm :think: )

The rumblings are of a 2-week ramp up, with a possible debut somewhere around the Week 8 mark. Almost certainly will be back starting by Week 10.

How feels the forum about this?

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby Anteaters » Thu Oct 19, 2023 2:25 am

Anyone want to sell him to me cheap? I hear some fantasy managers think he's better at video games than playing QB. I'm one of the idiots who thinks Kyler remains a T10QB in fantasy, and I'm the guy you should trade Kyler to.
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, Levis
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JavonteWms, JFord, CEH
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, MWilliams, Q Johnston
TE: Goedert, Friermuth
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, Greenlaw; (DE/DL) ZCollins, BJHill; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates, Witherspoon
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion

TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, AJD, Singletary, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby tstafford » Thu Oct 19, 2023 2:26 am

mild wrote: Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:02 pm How feels the forum about this?
In one word I feel "curious".

I think the range of outcomes here is really wide. On the high end, he's a solid QB starter in 1QB leagues and a great asset in SF. On the low end, he's Russell Wilson (or worse?). Although ARZ is 1-5 they've been fairly competitive. He's coming back to a better situation than we might have predicted. Hopefully Conner is healthy at the time Kyler debuts.

He's only 26. There's a reasonable chance he is valuable is SF. I own him in one league and want to see what I've got.

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby Jigga94 » Thu Oct 19, 2023 3:36 am

mild wrote: Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:02 pm Our short Fire Hydrant King is BACK at Practice...

(Funny how the Modern Warfare 3 beta ended Monday now he's back at practice... hmmm :think: )

The rumblings are of a 2-week ramp up, with a possible debut somewhere around the Week 8 mark. Almost certainly will be back starting by Week 10.

How feels the forum about this?
So much for all those tanking teams who acquired him :lol:

Has to be a positive for the passing weapons, unless he's way too rusty and they're rushing him back. Showcase for a trade?

I've been on the fence with Kyler for a while. He can put up great weeks, but isn't consistent enough. Then there was also rumblings of him being traded out of ARI as if they don't think he's good enough. I still have him in that QB10-15 range, but he's going to need to come back strong from injury

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby killer_of_giants » Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:05 am

can't wait to see him back on the field. he runs like one of those small, springy dogs, you wouldn't think it would be effective.

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby dvpkwys » Fri Oct 20, 2023 7:51 am

Happy is close to returning. Seems he took the rehab very seriously, hopefully a little maturity through this process. I assume his running upside will be limited this year. Seems to have built a good relationship with the coach. I think he stays in Arizona.
10 Team - NON PPR (5 Round Rookie Draft) - Start 2QB, 2RB, 4WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 4DB, 4LB/DL/DB

Burrow/Howell (Murray, Geno)
Taylor/Swift (Sanders, Conner, Gibson, Miller, Spears Lenny)
Adams/Godwin/Higgins/McLaurin (DJ Moore, Hopkins, Tillman)
Kelce (Hockenson)
Budda/Holland/Blackmon/Minkah (Sydney Brown)
Bosa/Bernard/Okereke/EJones (Elliss)

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby 81- » Fri Oct 27, 2023 5:04 pm

Do we think he is going to play and be fantasy productive?

Got an opportunity to acquire him for pacheco....
12 Team, 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex, D, K, 10 Bench
1PPR, 0.5 point per carry.
Burrow, Richardson
AJ Brown, DJMoore, G Wilson, T Higgens, Sutton, Tillman, Melton
King Henry, Bijan, Pacheco, Mixon, Ford, JK
Hockenson, Musgrave
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Niners

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby CGW » Fri Oct 27, 2023 6:35 pm

81- wrote: Fri Oct 27, 2023 5:04 pm Do we think he is going to play and be fantasy productive?

Got an opportunity to acquire him for pacheco....
SF? Smash

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby 81- » Fri Oct 27, 2023 7:12 pm

CGW wrote: Fri Oct 27, 2023 6:35 pm
81- wrote: Fri Oct 27, 2023 5:04 pm Do we think he is going to play and be fantasy productive?

Got an opportunity to acquire him for pacheco....
SF? Smash
Not sf.

But my qb room is putrid with Dobbs leading the way
12 Team, 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex, D, K, 10 Bench
1PPR, 0.5 point per carry.
Burrow, Richardson
AJ Brown, DJMoore, G Wilson, T Higgens, Sutton, Tillman, Melton
King Henry, Bijan, Pacheco, Mixon, Ford, JK
Hockenson, Musgrave
Random Kicker
Niners

Picks in 2024 - #15, #22, #23, #27

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby Menace2010 » Fri Oct 27, 2023 8:17 pm

81- wrote: Fri Oct 27, 2023 7:12 pm
CGW wrote: Fri Oct 27, 2023 6:35 pm
81- wrote: Fri Oct 27, 2023 5:04 pm Do we think he is going to play and be fantasy productive?

Got an opportunity to acquire him for pacheco....
SF? Smash
Not sf.

But my qb room is putrid with Dobbs leading the way
In a 0.5 point per carry league, I can't see pulling the trigger in 1QB. No one selling someone cheaper (Cousins, Goff)?

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Re: Kyler Murray Thread

Postby CGW » Mon Oct 30, 2023 3:06 pm

In a strange turn of events, Gannon has now said Tune or Murray will be starting in week 9 over Dobbs, after saying Dobbs would remain the starter yesterday. Sounds like it won't be long now.


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