Rookie WR Production 2021

[Ice]

Josh Palmer has the tools be a breakout player by year 3. Buy him cheap while you can. His usage was increasing starting in the 2nd week of December. Smooth in and out of Routes and Herbert looked to be developing trust in him. 18 of his 33 receptions were from his last 5 games as were 3 of his 4 TD's.

[dondickenson]

Josh Palmer has the tools be a breakout player by year 3. Buy him cheap while you can. His usage was increasing starting in the 2nd week of December. Smooth in and out of Routes and Herbert looked to be developing trust in him. 18 of his 33 receptions were from his last 5 games as were 3 of his 4 TD's.

Good call. Herbert seems to like to toss it up to the big guys too, and Mike Williams could possibly be leaving.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Josh Palmer has the tools be a breakout player by year 3. Buy him cheap while you can. His usage was increasing starting in the 2nd week of December. Smooth in and out of Routes and Herbert looked to be developing trust in him. 18 of his 33 receptions were from his last 5 games as were 3 of his 4 TD's.

Agreed. I was all over Palmer in rookie drafts even though I knew how important rookie year production was and that Palmer was unlikely to do favorably in that area because of the depth chart. His rookie year numbers don't paint a pretty picture but I think he's a really solid player, and if things break right (Mike Williams going elsewhere) his situation with Herbert is fantastic.

[Yarnith]

Josh Palmer has the tools be a breakout player by year 3. Buy him cheap while you can. His usage was increasing starting in the 2nd week of December. Smooth in and out of Routes and Herbert looked to be developing trust in him. 18 of his 33 receptions were from his last 5 games as were 3 of his 4 TD's.

Agreed. I was all over Palmer in rookie drafts even though I knew how important rookie year production was and that Palmer was unlikely to do favorably in that area because of the depth chart. His rookie year numbers don't paint a pretty picture but I think he's a really solid player, and if things break right (Mike Williams going elsewhere) his situation with Herbert is fantastic.

Keenan is aging and Mike certainly played for a big payday this year so thinking you can sneak a WR with Palmer on the cheap isn't a bad idea. Someone has to be that low % guy breaks out later out later.

[gpaok]

Josh Palmer has the tools be a breakout player by year 3. Buy him cheap while you can. His usage was increasing starting in the 2nd week of December. Smooth in and out of Routes and Herbert looked to be developing trust in him. 18 of his 33 receptions were from his last 5 games as were 3 of his 4 TD's.

Agreed. I was all over Palmer in rookie drafts even though I knew how important rookie year production was and that Palmer was unlikely to do favorably in that area because of the depth chart. His rookie year numbers don't paint a pretty picture but I think he's a really solid player, and if things break right (Mike Williams going elsewhere) his situation with Herbert is fantastic.

This would be another interesting category - players that are tucked in deep depth charts that might breakout late! I think Palmer fits that bill and it can be the reason TEs breakout late along with the position challenges. There are exceptions like Chase and Pitts that had people in front of them that they beat out, but
Games playtime are just as important as working off the field or being naturally gifted.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I'm going through all the studs from the under 47ypg group to see if i can identify any similarities or differences.

Of the 15 players I've gone through so far, 14 of them were drafted within the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft.

However, the last 11 players, only 4 of them were drafted within the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft.

So basically, the higher YPG look for higher draft players. Lower YPG take dart throws on later round players?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Alright I did some digging as to why or how studs arose from the lower YPG groups. I ended up coming up with a grading system for a players opportunity. It factors in draft capital, passing volume, target competition, rushing competition, etc. It's not perfect by any means but it did end up aligning with the YPG. In theory, we know all of these players ended up as "studs" but they had wildly different rookie years. Turns out, on average, the more "opportunity" a stud had, the better they performed their rookie season (well duh).

Opportunity score accounts for several factors and assigns a point value to each. The higher the score, the more "opportunity" a player was given. So a low score means a player was screwed essentially, and a high score means they were given things on a silver platter.

YPG --- Opportunity Score
67+ ----- 12.6
57-66 --- 12
47-56 --- 11.9
20-46 --- 9.4 AVG
0-19 ---– 7.9 AVG

I averaged the opportunity scores for each section and you can see the players that performed insanely their rookie seasons (67+ YPG) were also given the most opportunities. Part of that could be because they were so good they "earned" the greater opportunity, as I did include Games Started as a factor. I may have to redo the scores without the Games Started points and see what that does. That said, the lowest opportunity score was an 11 for this group, which is a ridiculously high floor. High score of 14.

After that, things settle down from the 47-66 grouping, with an average opportunity score of essentially a 12 for both. 57-66 had a low of 9 and a high of 15. 47-56 group also had a low of 9 and a high of 15.

The biggest difference is below 47 group, that's where you can see the opportunity for these players was really trampled on.

We drop an entire 2.5 opportunity points from the group above to the 20-46 group. In this group we have a low of 5 and a high of 11. So the highest score from this group is still a full point lower than the averages of the higher groups. We know all these players turned out to be studs so this just highlights how important opportunity is with regards to rookie production.

In the 0-19 group, we drop yet another point and a half in opportunity score from the group above. We also have a low of 5 and a high of 11. Again, the highest opportunity score here doesn't even get to the average score of the upper groups.

So I guess one takeaway from this is, if we're looking for potential studs from the sub-47 YPG group, we should look for players who scored 11 or lower in Opportunity Score, or so it would seem. And players with a high opportunity score in the sub-47 group are most likely busts.

Here are all the Studs with the grading system. Btw, feel free to adjust the grading system how you see fit. I just kind of did this haphazardly.

_______________________________________

Opportunity (Games Started)
0-5 - Low: 1 point
6-10 - Medium: 2 points
11+ - High: 3 points

Pass Volume (Passing YPG)
160-189 - Poor: 0 points
190-219 - Low: 1 points
220-249 - Medium: 2 points
250-279 - High: 3 points
280+ - Extremely High: 4 points

Target Competition
Poor: Absolute trash at receivers: 4 points
Low: Not good receivers: 3 points
Medium: Receiver(s) nearing 1k yards: 2 points
High: 1k yard receiver: 1 points
Extremely High: Multiple 1k yard receivers : 0 points

QB Talent: I didn't factor this in the scores but it's self explanatory and I tracked it.

Draft Capital
UDFA - Poor: 0 points
Rnd6-7 - Low: 1 points
Rnd4-5 - Medium: 2 points
Rnd2-3 - High: 3 points
Rnd 1 - Extremely High: 4 points

Rush Volume
Poor: Garbage rushers: 4 points
Low: Not good RB stats: 3 points
Medium: RB nearing 1k rushing yards: 2 points
High: 1k RB Rusher on team: 1 point
Extremely High: 1500 total yard RB: 0 points

_____________________________________________

Ok here are all the studs from 1995-2015


67+ YPG
Average Opportunity Score: 12.6


Odell Beckham Jr.
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - Medium
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 15

Anquon Boldin
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 12
Score with QB Talent: 13

Randy Moss
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume – Extremely High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 15

Terry Glenn
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 14
Score with QB Talent: 16

Marques Colston
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume – Extremely High
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - Poor
Rush Volume – High
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 14

Julio Jones
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 12
Score with QB Talent: 14

AJ Green
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 12
Score with QB Talent: 14

Mike Evans
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Medium
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 14

Kennan Allen
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 15


-------------------------------


57-66 YPG
Average Opportunity Score: 12

Amari Cooper
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - Medium
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 15

Joey Galloway
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 9
Score with QB Talent: 10

Dwayne Bowe
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Medium
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 14

Andre Johnson
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Poor
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 12

Keyshawn Johnson
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Medium
Target Competition - Medium
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 12
Score with QB Talent: 13

TY Hilton
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 14

DeSean Jackson
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - Poor
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 15
Score with QB Talent: 17


-------------------------------

47-56 YPG
Average Opportunity Score: 11.9

Stefon Diggs
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Poor
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - Medium
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 9
Score with QB Talent: 10

Allen Robinson
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 12
Score with QB Talent: 13

Brandin Cooks
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume – Extremely High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 16

Marvin Harrison
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Medium
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 15
Score with QB Talent: 16

Santonio Holmes
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - Medium
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 10
Score with QB Talent: 13

Calvin Johnson
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - Medium
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 14
Score with QB Talent: 15

DeAndre Hopkins
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 14

Torry Holt
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume – Extremely High
Target Competition – Extremely High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 14

Larry Fitzgerald
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 14

Jarvis Landry
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - Medium
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 12
Score with QB Talent: 14

Mike Wallace
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume – Extremely High
Target Competition – Extremely High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 9
Score with QB Talent: 12


-------------------------------


20-46 YPG
Average Opportunity Score of 9.4

Muhsin Muhammad
Opportunity – Low
Pass Volume – Low
Target Competition – Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 9
Score with QB Talent: 10

Greg Jennings
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - Medium
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 10
Score with QB Talent: 13

Darrell Jackson
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 9
Score with QB Talent: 10

Tyler Lockett
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 14

Julian Edelman
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume – Extremely High
Target Competition – Extremely High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - Low
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 10
Score with QB Talent: 13

Terrell Owens
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - Medium
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 14

Laveranues Coles
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - Medium
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 9
Score with QB Talent: 10

Demaryius Thomas
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 12

Roddy White
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - Poor
Target Competition – Poor
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 10
Score with QB Talent: 12

Chad Johnson
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Medium
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 7
Score with QB Talent: 8

Davante Adams
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition – Extremely High
QB Talent –High
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 9
Score with QB Talent: 12

Reggie Wayne
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent –High
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Extremely High
Score: 10
Score with QB Talent: 13

Jordy Nelson
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition – Extremely High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 8
Score with QB Talent: 11

Plaxico Burress
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - Poor
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 10
Score with QB Talent: 11

Golden Tate
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Medium
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 12

Brandon Marshall
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Poor
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - Medium
Rush Volume – High
Score: 5
Score with QB Talent: 6



-------------------------------


0-19 YPG
Average Opportunity Score of 7.9

Antonio Brown
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Medium
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - Low
Rush Volume – High
Score: 6
Score with QB Talent: 9

Eric Moulds
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Medium
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume - High
Score: 9
Score with QB Talent: 11

Hines Ward
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Poor
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 8
Score with QB Talent: 9

Derrick Mason
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Poor
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital - Medium
Rush Volume – High
Score: 7
Score with QB Talent: 9

Steve Smith
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Poor
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 12

Antonio Freeman
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume – Extremely High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 10
Score with QB Talent: 13

Rod Smith
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - Poor
Rush Volume – High
Score: 6
Score with QB Talent: 9

Stevie Johnson
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - Low
Rush Volume – High
Score: 5
Score with QB Talent: 6

Joe Horn
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - Medium
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 10
Score with QB Talent: 11

Wes Welker
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Medium
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital - Poor
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 7
Score with QB Talent: 8


-------------------------------

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Here are the 2021 Rookies in the 20-46 group. Remember, 11 is the highest score we've seen to go on to become a stud.

It was easy to grade the players in the past because we already know what they become so it doesn't matter as much what I put, but it's a bit more challenging grading these players going forward given I don't have criteria written in stone for some of the categories. I probably should have come up with a number for the total team rushing, i don't know why I didn't lol. Maybe I will in the future and revise. I feel like Toney was tough, particularly with the rush volume score.

Of this group, even though his offense was the "best", Palmer was given the least "opportunity."



20-46 YPG

Rashod Bateman
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition –High
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 13

Kadarius Toney
Opportunity - Low
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - Low
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 12
Score with QB Talent: 13

Rondale Moore
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - High
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 13

Nico Collins
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume - Low
Target Competition - High
QB Talent – Stud
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Poor
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: Infinity

Josh Palmer
Opportunity - low
Pass Volume – Extremely High
Target Competition – Extremely High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 9
Score with QB Talent: 12


-------------------------------


Here is the 47+ Group. You can see Chase did more with less than Waddle for example. ARSB doing more with less than Smith as well. Waddle getting a monster amount of help, matching the highest opportunity score recorded.

Ja’Marr Chase
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume – Extremely High
Target Competition – High
QB Talent – High
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – High
Score: 13
Score with QB Talent: 16

Jaylen Waddle
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume – Medium
Target Competition – Low
QB Talent – Noodle Arm
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 15
Score with QB Talent: 16

DeVonta Smith
Opportunity - High
Pass Volume – Low
Target Competition – Medium
QB Talent – Low
Draft Capital – Extremely High
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 12
Score with QB Talent: 13

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume – Medium
Target Competition – Low
QB Talent – Medium
Draft Capital - Medium
Rush Volume – Medium
Score: 11
Score with QB Talent: 13

Elijah Moore
Opportunity - Medium
Pass Volume – Medium
Target Competition – Poor
QB Talent – Questionable
Draft Capital - High
Rush Volume – Low
Score: 14
Score with QB Talent: 15


-------------------------------

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I may experiment with reducing or cutting the draft capital points and see what that does as it’s not technically on the field impact. I originally included because obviously higher draft capital does afford more advantages for players to get on the field

[YouMightDieTryin]

Thank you DD.

[wickerkat1212]

Awesome. Thanks.

[NeverEndingRebuild]

That's great stuff as always DD. Thanks!

[AussieMate]

Love this, thanks DD, anything Elijah Moore just send it my way and I'll eat it up

[Ice]

I may experiment with reducing or cutting the draft capital points and see what that does as it’s not technically on the field impact. I originally included because obviously higher draft capital does afford more advantages for players to get on the field

Using Palmer as an example; How does dynamics of those around him play into the formula? Obviously with Allen under contract he is secure but Williams I think is an UFA and with Herbert's big time extension on the horizon, projected usage is a very dynamic parameter.

Palmer actually looks to be in a very good breakout position by 2023 if not sooner given he was very good with the opportunities given and he has the size, speed, and smoothness is route one looks for on the developmental side of the equation.

[gpaok]

I may experiment with reducing or cutting the draft capital points and see what that does as it’s not technically on the field impact. I originally included because obviously higher draft capital does afford more advantages for players to get on the field

Wow you are the man!!!

Does this mean that Nico Collins and Moore might have less chances of being studs vs Toney or Bateman since their opportunity was medium vs low?