Jalen Hurts: What's the verdict?

[dondickenson]

As a Josh Allen owner, I'm worried about this, but I don't see Hurts' running style the same or as risky. To me, he runs more like Lamar.

Injury is definitely a concern with all of them for sure, but Allen and LJax have done more on an individual level with less around them already. Hurts has a ton to prove. Think Hurts’ real skill is his poise and leadership, which fits perfectly with that stacked roster. Similar in that way to Brock Purdy.

The comparison to LJax though is apt as much as it is concerning, with LJax only having played 54 out of his last 66 reg season games - and that’s without a major injury. Hurts has started down that path, playing in 30 of his last 34.

Allen, on the other hand, has shown the best pure arm talent of the bunch and much better durability, missing only a single game in his 5 year career since taking over the starting job, aka playing in 76 of his last 77 games.

LJax injuries have been lower body ... obviously not ideal. My concern with Allen is the injury to his UCL ... & yes, I know that occurred while in the pocket. But in the context of Cam Newton, once his shoulder/arm was shot, he had no chance to develop as a passer. A mobile QB with leg issues still has a chance to be a good passer. Obviously a ton of risk all around, but I'd still prefer leg injuries for a QB than arm issues.

All good points.

[Ruggenater]

Hurts is absolutely the number one sell in dynasty—please send him my way!

I don’t know how anyone watches the Super Bowl and doesn’t come away impressed with Hurts’ passing in the game.

Against a very poor pass defense with absolutely perfect protection. Chiefs relied heavily on their rush to defend the pass this season, but when the rush didn’t get there they completely fell apart. They were the only team in the NFL to give up 30 or more TDs passing, and they gave up 33, which is not good, obviously.

Just two weeks prior playing against a good SF defense(whose weakness is still secondary), Hurts didn’t even put up a legit 100 yards through the air and was completely outmatched, objectively looking like one of the worst QBs the 49ers faced all year. But at least he didn’t have any catastrophic unforced errors like he did in the SB.

And no one has even attempted to address the fact that his situation was perfect in every way, and has nowhere to go but down from here. Roster, specifically OL, will get worse. His rushing ability will deteriorate. NFL isn’t likely to make rules on their scrum QB sneak any more favorable than they already are, likely less. Historically QBs in his position, whether it be on a rookie contract, SB debut loser, predominantly running QB, have regressed, often spectacularly. I guess if people want to bury their heads in the sand on this and make snarky, insightless comments here then that is on them.

It’d be more helpful if you, or one of the other posters that chooses to come here to detract from conversations, could make an argument as to why this isn’t Hurts’ absolute peak in value, or name reasons why Hurts will have a better situation and will gain value moving forward, or name a few better QB sells in dynasty right now.

The arguments in favor of selling Hurts right now make little sense. His value right now could be at a peak, but he’s among the best bets to maintain elite scoring at the QB position over the next few seasons. So if you’re concerned about injuries piling up at some point, selling at age 24 seems extremely early. His pass catchers are under contract for the next few season, and the Eagles have shown not only a willingness but a tendency to continually invest in their O and D lines regardless of “need”. Cam Jurgens was drafted to take over for Jason Kelce when the time comes, and they have recent draftees in Mailata and Dickerson performing at a high level. It would be counter to the team philosophy/history to assume that the OL talent will drop off significantly over the next few years. If you want to sell high, the smarter bet would be to ride Hurts’ production for at least another season or two first.

[Ruggenater]

And the game plan against the 49ers went vanilla/run-heavy once Purdy got injured, so that’s an odd game to draw any conclusions from. There’s nearly a whole regular season of consistent high end passing performances to choose from if you’re unconvinced by him showing out on the biggest possible stage in the Super Bowl.

[Cameron Giles]

Before the season: Sell Hurts, he's not that good! He can only get worse!

After the season: Ok he was good. But sell him, he's not that good! He can only get worse!

[mild]

Before the season: Sell Hurts, he's not that good! He can only get worse!

After the season: Ok he was good. But sell him, he's not that good! He can only get worse!

Exactly.

He's the best QB in the NFC right now. That's not even really a hot take, and it's a lock as far as for fantasy/dynasty purposes.

He's going to get 50m+ per year and he deserves every penny.

[MacDaddy123]

Before the season: Sell Hurts, he's not that good! He can only get worse!

After the season: Ok he was good. But sell him, he's not that good! He can only get worse!

Exactly.

He's the best QB in the NFC right now. That's not even really a hot take, and it's a lock as far as for fantasy/dynasty purposes.

He's going to get 50m+ per year and he deserves every penny.

As an Eagles fan, that is my main concern.
Once a QB gets that 2nd contract, at least since the rookie salary cap in 2011, winning seems to become almost impossible.

Mahomes just a week ago, became the first QB drafted since the rookie salary cap was put in place, to win a Super Bowl while on his 2nd contract.

Eagles have been to two Super Bowls in the past 5 years, both times when their QB (Wentz, Hurts) were on their rookie deals.

IMO, you need a HOF head coach AND an elite QB to win a Super Bowl with a QB on his 2nd contract.

[mild]

As an Eagles fan, that is my main concern.
Once a QB gets that 2nd contract, at least since the rookie salary cap in 2011, winning seems to become almost impossible.

Will this impact the Eagles magic formula of late, of having minor cap outlay devoted to the QB position whilst spending big everywhere else? Yes, absolutely, of course it will.

Should we be taking your argument in good faith? Nah, not really. Those are crocodile tears, my man.

Having a QB that is so good at football that you simply -must- pay him 50m+ per year asap (before the price increases even further with other pending QB deals) is a problem that the majority of the league would love to have. No-one feels sorry for you because you found your franchise QB of the future, and now you have to pay him.

Reducing the Jalen Hurts contract to a "Superbowl or bust" argument doesn't really apply to us here in fantasy land, either way. As previously discussed: this offense is currently loaded, with all major pass catchers under contract until 2026/27 - there are already potential succession plans in place behind Jason Kelce, Miles Sanders, and others - there are major rookie picks that Howie has squirrelled away... (that 2024 Saints 2nd rounder... Howie is -that dude- in your Dynasty league, honestly)

For a team set to pay their man this offseason, you really couldn't ask for a better setup to keep continuing the success for at least the next year or three. (Especially given that any Hurts extension won't actually kick in until 2024 - he has one final rookie year for '23)

It's not unreasonable to think that this team could be even better in 2023 - even if matching that W/L and postseason run will obviously be harder, they legitimately might be a more complete team this season.

[MacDaddy123]

As an Eagles fan, that is my main concern.
Once a QB gets that 2nd contract, at least since the rookie salary cap in 2011, winning seems to become almost impossible.

Will this impact the Eagles magic formula of late, of having minor cap outlay devoted to the QB position whilst spending big everywhere else? Yes, absolutely, of course it will.

Should we be taking your argument in good faith? Nah, not really. Those are crocodile tears, my man.

Having a QB that is so good at football that you simply -must- pay him 50m+ per year asap (before the price increases even further with other pending QB deals) is a problem that the majority of the league would love to have. No-one feels sorry for you because you found your franchise QB of the future, and now you have to pay him.

Yeah, because opening the bank vault for a QB has worked out so well for Russ Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, etc.

My thoughts are purely real life, since Eagles are my team.

Fantasy value will erode eventually, we might get a sneak preview when we see what the Bengals do with Burrow and Higgins, who are both due to get paid this off-season.
Many rumors that the Bengals trade Higgins so they can throw the bank at Burrow/Chase.

Having already thrown the bank at AJ Brown, if Eagles throw the bank at Hurts this off-season, they may find themselves in a similar position of having to trade away DeVonta Smith after 2023, when he is due to get paid.

Hard to compete with a $50 mil QB and $50 mil on two WR's, which is why Chiefs traded away Tyreek.
Trading away Tyreek did not seem to hurt the Chiefs or Mahomes though.
I still struggle to compare Hurts to Mahomes though, as I think that Mahomes is the only NFL QB deserving of $50 mil/year.

[mild]

Yeah, because opening the bank vault for a QB has worked out so well for Russ Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, etc.

My thoughts are purely real life, since Eagles are my team.

Right, so to be clear: your "real life" stance is that Hurts is not worth 50m per year, and that you wish they would let him walk and roll with Gardner Minschew and/or sign Jimmy G? Sounds like you definitely wouldn't want Josh Allen, as he's an overpaid bum!

And you wish you didn't have to be in this position to pay him the -checks notes- "current market rate" because he is -checks notes- "a very good QB that just took you to the Superbowl in his 3rd season in the league".

Good to know!

Having already thrown the bank at AJ Brown, if Eagles throw the bank at Hurts this off-season, they may find themselves in a similar position of having to trade away DeVonta Smith after 2023, when he is due to get paid.

Hard to compete with a $50 mil QB and $50 mil on two WR's, which is why Chiefs traded away Tyreek.
Trading away Tyreek did not seem to hurt the Chiefs or Mahomes though.
I still struggle to compare Hurts to Mahomes though, as I think that Mahomes is the only NFL QB deserving of $50 mil/year.

*ehhhhh* *incorrect buzzer sound*

Devonta Smith is a first round pick, and as of such, will have a 5th year option, exercisable in 2024.

For an Eagles fan, you sure seem lacking on the finer details of your own team! How is a Giants fan taking you to school on your own team's contract setup?

For 2025, I would suggest the Franchise Tag.

For 2026, I would suggest making a decision between a now-29 year old AJ Brown and a 28-year old Devonta Smith, and keeping whichever one is better. Or drafting/trading for someone new!

All QB's of note are about to earn 50 million a year shortly man. Best look away... you're not gonna like what happens next!

[Cameron Giles]

As an Eagles fan, that is my main concern.
Once a QB gets that 2nd contract, at least since the rookie salary cap in 2011, winning seems to become almost impossible.

Mahomes just a week ago, became the first QB drafted since the rookie salary cap was put in place, to win a Super Bowl while on his 2nd contract.

Eagles have been to two Super Bowls in the past 5 years, both times when their QB (Wentz, Hurts) were on their rookie deals.

IMO, you need a HOF head coach AND an elite QB to win a Super Bowl with a QB on his 2nd contract.

I agree with mild. It's like...sure; that's technically true, but what better option do you have? Do you just let QBs walk after they become really good? If the Eagles won't pay Hurts, it's a guarantee someone will. There's a short list of really good starting QBs in the NFL. The Eagles are in one of the best positions in the league. Plus, they have these first round picks they can use to start getting that cheap labor they'll need.

GMs make their living for this exact scenario. Finding the franchise QB, paying him big money, and building a contender anyway.

It may not result in a Super Bowl. Winning Super Bowls is very, very, very hard.

[murphysxm]

with the salary cap continuing to balloon, $50MM means very little. The Chiefs let Hill walk not just because of the money, because they decided at his age the money could be used better elsewhere.

[seahawks506]

The other part of this equation is whether a team that can draft and develop young talent, and identify underpriced free agents and get them on prove-it deals. The seahawks never made it back to the NFCG after paying Russ because they had terrible drafts, leaving their roster littered with holes, and their acquisitions didn't pan out.

[mild]

with the salary cap continuing to balloon, $50MM means very little. The Chiefs let Hill walk not just because of the money, because they decided at his age the money could be used better elsewhere.

Agreed. The Chiefs know that Mahomes is a tide that lifts all ships, and that he's going to make players around them look incredibly good. See: this year's Juju revival, Justin Watson flashing big plays for the first time in his career, and so on...

Kelce hits the Chiefs cap for 14.8 mil this year, 15.5m in 2024, and 19.8m in 2025 (his age 36 season)
Tyreek will cost the Dolphins cap 31.4m this year, 24.8m in 2024, and 28.5m in 2025 where there's an option out (for his age 31 season)

If Tyreek is still a Dolphin on that same contract in 2026, the cap hit is 50.1m which is an obvious of a "he's never seeing that" "fake money" year to boost the overall number as you'll ever see.

So, not all these contracts are created equal, and sometimes their sticker shock isn't as big as the overall deal sounds, because of the voidable years on the back end. The Chiefs didn't miss a beat without him, and went with the more integral player in Kelce.

Hard to compete with a $50 mil QB and $50 mil on two WR's, which is why Chiefs traded away Tyreek.
Trading away Tyreek did not seem to hurt the Chiefs or Mahomes though.
I still struggle to compare Hurts to Mahomes though, as I think that Mahomes is the only NFL QB deserving of $50 mil/year.

Speaking of "not all contracts being equal" let's just shoot this false cow in the field whilst we're here.

Jalen Hurts will get 50m a year, yes.

AJ Brown's cap hits:
8 mil 2023
27m 2024
22.7m 2025 (with a potential out here)
37.7m 2026 (again, with outs)

I don't know how many times I need to keep repeating it, but Howie Roseman is better (at maths, at everything) than you.

Worrying about contracts that are 3 years away from being even close to problematic is a fools errand in the NFL, and no, AJ Brown + Devonta Smith isn't going to even come close to costing you 50m a year until 2026 at the earliest, as I have already laid out.

The franchise tag for a WR this year is 19m. Presuming it's still relatively close to that value in 2025, that's the soonest you have to worry about those two combining for something even close to that number.

Enjoy your incredibly well constructed team, you miserable Philadelphians! Haha

[ericanadian]

Before the season: Sell Hurts, he's not that good! He can only get worse!

After the season: Ok he was good. But sell him, he's not that good! He can only get worse!

Exactly.

He's the best QB in the NFC right now. That's not even really a hot take, and it's a lock as far as for fantasy/dynasty purposes.

He's going to get 50m+ per year and he deserves every penny.

As an Eagles fan, that is my main concern.
Once a QB gets that 2nd contract, at least since the rookie salary cap in 2011, winning seems to become almost impossible.

Mahomes just a week ago, became the first QB drafted since the rookie salary cap was put in place, to win a Super Bowl while on his 2nd contract.

Eagles have been to two Super Bowls in the past 5 years, both times when their QB (Wentz, Hurts) were on their rookie deals.

IMO, you need a HOF head coach AND an elite QB to win a Super Bowl with a QB on his 2nd contract.

Mahomes - 2nd Contract
Stafford
Brady
Mahomes - 1st Contract
Brady
Foles
Brady
P. Manning
Brady
Wilson - 1st Contract
Flacco - 1st Contract
E Manning - 2nd Contract
Rodgers - 2nd Contract

I’m not seeing as how a second contract makes things worse than a first one for winning Superbowls. Seems like the answer to winning Superbowls in the rookie cap era has been to have Tom Brady.

[gogobradyarm]

I'm not even sure what this thread is arguing anymore. Jalen Hurts is not a guy that is going to get paid, and take a fall down the totem poll in talent. All the man has done, is get better and better and he is an awesome guy to watch improve in all facets. He has a solid win now window and when AJB time comes for a renewal, they either resign him or Smith or draft some other talent. Hurts has the talent to make it work with whoever, but having at least one of those guys will make him a star for a long time.

People act like Peyton Manning didn't have Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison for a long time...