Tua Tagovailoa Thread

[murphysxm]

Yeah, but ...

Alex Rodriguez had the Yankees

He was a better player before he was a Yankee, please explain this take?

It's debatable. Difficult to say he was definitively a better player before or after, but I agree it's debatable. ARod won 1 MVP before he joined NYY, and won 2 MVP awards while playing with the Yankees. That's a great starting off point to say he was at least as good with the Yankees as before. Of course, no one would argue the last few years were among his best. But it's safe to say his first few seasons with the Yankees were some great years for him. He was a 7 time All Star with the Yankees. He placed 7 times in MVP voting before joining the Yankees, and 7 times with the Yankees.

But I apologize for the big push on Tua. I was merely trying to list the reasons I think he is a more valuable fantasy asset than many managers realize. I didn't intend to lead anyone to try to defend their reasons why they don't believe in Tua. Every player has supporters and detractors, both fantasy wise and regarding NFL performance.

Maybe my snarkyness got the best of me. Arod was a stud, team didn't matter. I think Tua needs a great team around him to be a stud. He has that . I just don't think he is as "special" as you portray him to be.

[gogobradyarm]

He was a better player before he was a Yankee, please explain this take?

It's debatable. Difficult to say he was definitively a better player before or after, but I agree it's debatable. ARod won 1 MVP before he joined NYY, and won 2 MVP awards while playing with the Yankees. That's a great starting off point to say he was at least as good with the Yankees as before. Of course, no one would argue the last few years were among his best. But it's safe to say his first few seasons with the Yankees were some great years for him. He was a 7 time All Star with the Yankees. He placed 7 times in MVP voting before joining the Yankees, and 7 times with the Yankees.

But I apologize for the big push on Tua. I was merely trying to list the reasons I think he is a more valuable fantasy asset than many managers realize. I didn't intend to lead anyone to try to defend their reasons why they don't believe in Tua. Every player has supporters and detractors, both fantasy wise and regarding NFL performance.

Maybe my snarkyness got the best of me. Arod was a stud, team didn't matter. I think Tua needs a great team around him to be a stud. He has that . I just don't think he is as "special" as you portray him to be.

I remember people saying Tom Brady was not special before Randy Moss and Wes Welker came to town. Truthfully, his stats weren’t eye popping until 2007. Can make similar arguments with Hurts and Allen. QBs generally aren’t going to play at elite levels with nobodies.

So with that said, I’m not sure being special is anything more than being a very good QB and having the talent around you to prove it. I believe Tua is a very good QB, similar to Brees in talent but a slightly worse arm imo.

Sadly I sold in the off-season because I have concerns about his longevity.

[ericanadian]

It's debatable. Difficult to say he was definitively a better player before or after, but I agree it's debatable. ARod won 1 MVP before he joined NYY, and won 2 MVP awards while playing with the Yankees. That's a great starting off point to say he was at least as good with the Yankees as before. Of course, no one would argue the last few years were among his best. But it's safe to say his first few seasons with the Yankees were some great years for him. He was a 7 time All Star with the Yankees. He placed 7 times in MVP voting before joining the Yankees, and 7 times with the Yankees.

But I apologize for the big push on Tua. I was merely trying to list the reasons I think he is a more valuable fantasy asset than many managers realize. I didn't intend to lead anyone to try to defend their reasons why they don't believe in Tua. Every player has supporters and detractors, both fantasy wise and regarding NFL performance.

Maybe my snarkyness got the best of me. Arod was a stud, team didn't matter. I think Tua needs a great team around him to be a stud. He has that . I just don't think he is as "special" as you portray him to be.

I remember people saying Tom Brady was not special before Randy Moss and Wes Welker came to town. Truthfully, his stats weren’t eye popping until 2007. Can make similar arguments with Hurts and Allen. QBs generally aren’t going to play at elite levels with nobodies.

So with that said, I’m not sure being special is anything more than being a very good QB and having the talent around you to prove it. I believe Tua is a very good QB, similar to Brees in talent but a slightly worse arm imo.

Sadly I sold in the off-season because I have concerns about his longevity.

Brady’s shift seemed to be more linked to McDaniels taking over. In retrospect, I’d also say I think that had more to do with Weiss being bad than McDaniels being good. Brady didn’t need elite talent to show he was a great QB, just an offensive system that let him work. Getting Welker, Moss and Gronk was just icing on the cake in my view.

[gogobradyarm]

Maybe my snarkyness got the best of me. Arod was a stud, team didn't matter. I think Tua needs a great team around him to be a stud. He has that . I just don't think he is as "special" as you portray him to be.

I remember people saying Tom Brady was not special before Randy Moss and Wes Welker came to town. Truthfully, his stats weren’t eye popping until 2007. Can make similar arguments with Hurts and Allen. QBs generally aren’t going to play at elite levels with nobodies.

So with that said, I’m not sure being special is anything more than being a very good QB and having the talent around you to prove it. I believe Tua is a very good QB, similar to Brees in talent but a slightly worse arm imo.

Sadly I sold in the off-season because I have concerns about his longevity.

Brady’s shift seemed to be more linked to McDaniels taking over. In retrospect, I’d also say I think that had more to do with Weiss being bad than McDaniels being good. Brady didn’t need elite talent to show he was a great QB, just an offensive system that let him work. Getting Welker, Moss and Gronk was just icing on the cake in my view.

I disagree and feel McDaniels is overrated. Brady did well in offenses without him, while McDaniels struggled greatly with other QBs.

[ericanadian]

I remember people saying Tom Brady was not special before Randy Moss and Wes Welker came to town. Truthfully, his stats weren’t eye popping until 2007. Can make similar arguments with Hurts and Allen. QBs generally aren’t going to play at elite levels with nobodies.

So with that said, I’m not sure being special is anything more than being a very good QB and having the talent around you to prove it. I believe Tua is a very good QB, similar to Brees in talent but a slightly worse arm imo.

Sadly I sold in the off-season because I have concerns about his longevity.

Brady’s shift seemed to be more linked to McDaniels taking over. In retrospect, I’d also say I think that had more to do with Weiss being bad than McDaniels being good. Brady didn’t need elite talent to show he was a great QB, just an offensive system that let him work. Getting Welker, Moss and Gronk was just icing on the cake in my view.

I disagree and feel McDaniels is overrated. Brady did well in offenses without him, while McDaniels struggled greatly with other QBs.

As I said, I don’t think it was about McDaniels. I think it was about Weiss. I know Weiss was really highly regarded at the time, but his offense was a dinosaur offense.

[frerichs5]

Update through four seasons.

If availability and total season points are your thing (per fantasy pros):
2020: QB31
2021: QB26
2022: QB15
2023: QB9

If you prefer PPG (I tried to eliminate guys who only played one game):
2020: QB29
2021: QB23
2022: QB9
2023: QB19

2023 was Tua’s healthiest year, but took a decent step back from last year in production per game (compared to other QBs at least). Will be interesting to see if 2022 was the outlier as his other years suggest a mid-backend QB2.

[jordanzs]

Update through four seasons.

If availability and total season points are your thing (per fantasy pros):
2020: QB31
2021: QB26
2022: QB15
2023: QB9

If you prefer PPG (I tried to eliminate guys who only played one game):
2020: QB29
2021: QB23
2022: QB9
2023: QB19

2023 was Tua’s healthiest year, but took a decent step back from last year in production per game (compared to other QBs at least). Will be interesting to see if 2022 was the outlier as his other years suggest a mid-backend QB2.

It will be interesting. On one hand we have 2 more years of Tyreek. On the other hand, will we have Mostert running the ball or maybe see more dump off passes to Achane?

[Anteaters]

If you prefer PPG (I tried to eliminate guys who only played one game):

It would be better to set a higher cut-off range. Maybe whatever is the minimum number of games to be considered for postseason awards like MVP and such. To be included in such stat comparisons, a player should start more than three or four games. At least a third of the season, maybe half.

[frerichs5]

If you prefer PPG (I tried to eliminate guys who only played one game):

It would be better to set a higher cut-off range. Maybe whatever is the minimum number of games to be considered for postseason awards like MVP and such. To be included in such stat comparisons, a player should start more than three or four games. At least a third of the season, maybe half.

I don’t really agree with that. When I’m looking at PPG, it’s generally to see who’s better in my lineup. I don’t need to see someone for a third, or half, of a season to consider putting them in my lineup. That’s why I filtered off one gamers, as I’m usually not starting someone their first game (unless they’re my only option). After seeing it once (and most definitely twice), players will be in consideration for me.

That said, you can change those numbers if you want. It might affect 1-2 places per year. It still tells the same story that 2022 was the outlier thus far. For me at least.

[mild]

2023 was Tua’s healthiest year, but took a decent step back from last year in production per game (compared to other QBs at least). Will be interesting to see if 2022 was the outlier as his other years suggest a mid-backend QB2.

Gotta say, the Dolphins bleeding starters all over the roster (including the OL) this offseason does not fill me with optimism for this scenario.

The bill has come due. Tyreek is 30. Terron Armstead was once again talked out of retiring. Tua is set to play on his 5th year and is due a massive extension.

I think we both agree... this setup looks far shakier than 2022.

[Anteaters]

I don’t really agree with that. When I’m looking at PPG, it’s generally to see who’s better in my lineup. I don’t need to see someone for a third, or half, of a season to consider putting them in my lineup. That’s why I filtered off one gamers, as I’m usually not starting someone their first game (unless they’re my only option). After seeing it once (and most definitely twice), players will be in consideration for me.

That said, you can change those numbers if you want. It might affect 1-2 places per year. It still tells the same story that 2022 was the outlier thus far. For me at least.

No need. This is your list. I was trying to suggest better process as I see it. If you're happy using 2-game sample sizes to make your long term decisions, I will not attempt to talk you out of it. All fantasy managers run their teams as they see best and I think that's great.

[Jigga94]

I don’t really agree with that. When I’m looking at PPG, it’s generally to see who’s better in my lineup. I don’t need to see someone for a third, or half, of a season to consider putting them in my lineup. That’s why I filtered off one gamers, as I’m usually not starting someone their first game (unless they’re my only option). After seeing it once (and most definitely twice), players will be in consideration for me.

That said, you can change those numbers if you want. It might affect 1-2 places per year. It still tells the same story that 2022 was the outlier thus far. For me at least.

No need. This is your list. I was trying to suggest better process as I see it. If you're happy using 2-game sample sizes to make your long term decisions, I will not attempt to talk you out of it. All fantasy managers run their teams as they see best and I think that's great.

Such a lame strawman

[frerichs5]

I don’t really agree with that. When I’m looking at PPG, it’s generally to see who’s better in my lineup. I don’t need to see someone for a third, or half, of a season to consider putting them in my lineup. That’s why I filtered off one gamers, as I’m usually not starting someone their first game (unless they’re my only option). After seeing it once (and most definitely twice), players will be in consideration for me.

That said, you can change those numbers if you want. It might affect 1-2 places per year. It still tells the same story that 2022 was the outlier thus far. For me at least.

No need. This is your list. I was trying to suggest better process as I see it. If you're happy using 2-game sample sizes to make your long term decisions, I will not attempt to talk you out of it. All fantasy managers run their teams as they see best and I think that's great.

I’m not following you at all. I’m not making any long term decisions on anyone playing two games a year. I’m talking about Tua.

The way I look at it, 3 of 4 years, Tua has been a mid QB2 or worse. Would I take him before someone that plays a handful of games a year? Obviously. But it makes no sense to me to value super highly when there are Joe Flacco’s of the world who may pop up and outscore him for a couple months…or Jake Browning scoring the same. It just means he’s more easily replaceable.

Obviously Tua has value as a full time starter. How much value to place in him is the real question, and everyone’s answer is likely different.

[tstafford]

I don’t really agree with that. When I’m looking at PPG, it’s generally to see who’s better in my lineup. I don’t need to see someone for a third, or half, of a season to consider putting them in my lineup. That’s why I filtered off one gamers, as I’m usually not starting someone their first game (unless they’re my only option). After seeing it once (and most definitely twice), players will be in consideration for me.

That said, you can change those numbers if you want. It might affect 1-2 places per year. It still tells the same story that 2022 was the outlier thus far. For me at least.

No need. This is your list. I was trying to suggest better process as I see it. If you're happy using 2-game sample sizes to make your long term decisions, I will not attempt to talk you out of it. All fantasy managers run their teams as they see best and I think that's great.

I’m not following you at all. I’m not making any long term decisions on anyone playing two games a year. I’m talking about Tua.

The way I look at it, 3 of 4 years, Tua has been a mid QB2 or worse. Would I take him before someone that plays a handful of games a year? Obviously. But it makes no sense to me to value super highly when there are Joe Flacco’s of the world who may pop up and outscore him for a couple months…or Jake Browning scoring the same. It just means he’s more easily replaceable.

Obviously Tua has value as a full time starter. How much value to place in him is the real question, and everyone’s answer is likely different.

Isn't this more or less how most people see Tua? I have him on both an SF and 1QB team and see him as a solid QB2. I'd prefer not to start him in 1QB but will on bye weeks, injury or a particularly juicy match-up. In SF, he's obviously a lock and load every week starter for most managers. DLF ranks him as QB13 and aside from Purdy, there's no one after him that I'd consider taking over him. Watson, Fields, Young, Goff, etc. It's simple - there's no upside because he doesn't rush but there's a decent floor because of the offense/team around him.

[Anteaters]

No need. This is your list. I was trying to suggest better process as I see it. If you're happy using 2-game sample sizes to make your long term decisions, I will not attempt to talk you out of it. All fantasy managers run their teams as they see best and I think that's great.

I’m not following you at all. I’m not making any long term decisions on anyone playing two games a year. I’m talking about Tua.

The way I look at it, 3 of 4 years, Tua has been a mid QB2 or worse. Would I take him before someone that plays a handful of games a year? Obviously. But it makes no sense to me to value super highly when there are Joe Flacco’s of the world who may pop up and outscore him for a couple months…or Jake Browning scoring the same. It just means he’s more easily replaceable.

Obviously Tua has value as a full time starter. How much value to place in him is the real question, and everyone’s answer is likely different.

Isn't this more or less how most people see Tua? I have him on both an SF and 1QB team and see him as a solid QB2. I'd prefer not to start him in 1QB but will on bye weeks, injury or a particularly juicy match-up. In SF, he's obviously a lock and load every week starter for most managers. DLF ranks him as QB13 and aside from Purdy, there's no one after him that I'd consider taking over him. Watson, Fields, Young, Goff, etc. It's simple - there's no upside because he doesn't rush but there's a decent floor because of the offense/team around him.

It is.

When people bring Joe Flacco into a discussion about Tua, it's kind of hard for me to know where to go next without feeling like I'm on an episode of Candid Camera or Punk'd. Hey, I'm the biggest Flacco fan around and have had his back since way back when people were saying he didn't earn his superbowl victory.

But in 2024, Flacco doesn't have a starting job in the NFL, and he didn't go into 2023 with one either. I understand the comparison was not only Flacco, but any random backup QB who might luck into a starting role for three or six games in any given season. To compare Tua to a player like that seems wild. But that is where a lot of people seemingly put Tua's value. As if they'd rather go into a season with a combination of Dobbs/Flacco/Minshew/Tyrod rather than Tua. Or others who say they'd rather trade Tua for the 1.09 (in SF) and have an opportunity to draft the 4th or 5th rookie QB rather than hold Tua.

And I'm cool with that. I have a different valuation of Tua, but everyone is entitled to formulate their own valuation. Not taking a dig at freirich5. Just truly befuddled by the mid-scale Tua devaluation.