Odds of Winning a League

[Pac_Eddy]

So I won the title in an empire league last season. If I win again this year, I get the empire pot.

I was thinking, what are the odds of a repeat?

Has anyone seen or created a way to measure the strength of teams to get an idea of chances to win in any league? Maybe someone with a statistics background is needed.

Anyway, post your thoughts on this.

[CGW]

In my leagues its total luck when it comes to playoffs. The teams I feel like are favored going into the season never win. Too many injuries, emerging studs, etc.

I can usually tell if I'm a playoff team. From there i'd say its a 16.67% chance to win it all.

[killer_of_giants]

Has anyone seen or created a way to measure the strength of teams to get an idea of chances to win in any league?

dynastyranker? although it's based on KTC i believe.

[Patsfan86]

This is almost impossible to predict. Think about how many powerhouse teams went up against just Alvin Kamara alone last year and lost because of that one player?

[zuzaque]

12 teams? Your odds are about 1 in 12

[ArrylT]

12 teams? Your odds are about 1 in 12

Basically this is how I calculate the odds atm. Once you're in the playoffs the odds change dramatically - there are DLF articles from past years that show the % being the #1, 2, 3 seed and so forth (assuming 6 teams). But until you actually get into the playoffs I would treat it as a 1 in 12 scenario.

[CGW]

12 teams? Your odds are about 1 in 12

Id say its better than that. In every league I am in there are 2 or 3 who intentionally tank and 1 or 2 more teams that just flat out suck.

[Bronco Billy]

I’d say that your odds are lower than 1:12 right now. With everyone except you wanting to see the Empire pot carry over, there could be some trades during the season, that while not overtly collusive or egregiously unbalanced, would favor a team with a better shot at knocking you off.

[MEuRaH]

I've had two repeat champions in my leagues, which is quite a feat considering it was in a 32 and 96 team league.

That's right. In the 96 team league, a guy won TWICE IN A ROW.

http://www62.myfantasyleague.com/2019/home/68479#0

That's gotta be one of the greatest achievements of all time in fantasy. There's a one in ten-thousand chance that this happens on its own.

[Pac_Eddy]

12 teams? Your odds are about 1 in 12

Id say its better than that. In every league I am in there are 2 or 3 who intentionally tank and 1 or 2 more teams that just flat out suck.

I think there are always a group of strong, most likely to make the playoffs teams. And there are the rebuilds or just bad teams. So if you're a likely playoff team, your odds are better than 1 in 12 right off the bat. I'd say they're about 1 in 8.

[honcho55]

I think the only way this requires a deep dive from a math/stats standpoint, is if you specify all the leagues settings. Footballguys does a ratemyteam thing that gives odds for playoffs, dunno about winning. I’d say you would have to include every single teams rosters, and have some (arbitrary) projections to work from, to get hard odds.

I will say, you’re odds are definitely higher than 1/12. This is super simple math. One team rebuilding means you’re 1/11. One team trading to another contended to knock you off? Gets a little dicey on the math, but at a minimum, we can eliminate that tanking team, no? And the team that got the good end of the deal, did one player raise his odds enough to make up the difference? Unlikely.

Now, if that player was Kamara, yep you lose. But what if it was McCaffrey? I desperately grabbed him hoping for a title game appearance last year, lost the finals (was a bid for back to back too lol). This is how probability works though.

I’d guess an absolute powerhouse team has maybe 25% chance to win, and a baseline contender has about 15% chance, both numbers going down the bigger the league is.

So by that WAG, odds to repeat are 6.25% at absolute best, 2.25 on down otherwise

[Bronco Billy]

So by that WAG, odds to repeat are 6.25% at absolute best, 2.25 on down otherwise

Say what? The independent event is already in the W column, so the dependent event now becomes a single independent event.

[Kelldon]

Dynasty assistant is nice. It gives a number value for total(starters+bench) and a separate value for just starters for each team. Also has other info like average age of positions for each team as well as number value of each position for each team.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Dynasty assistant is nice. It gives a number value for total(starters+bench) and a separate value for just starters for each team. Also has other info like average age of positions for each team as well as number value of each position for each team.

Guessing this is an app? If so I may need to look into it. Could help an owner decide when it's getting time for a team course correction. Or an affirmation that you're on the right track.

[Pac_Eddy]

Dynasty assistant is nice. It gives a number value for total(starters+bench) and a separate value for just starters for each team. Also has other info like average age of positions for each team as well as number value of each position for each team.

Thanks for the tip.

It's free, easy to add my leagues. I'll take a deeper look soon!