Dynasty League Football Forum

Mike Clay’s 2021 Projections for the entire NFL

Love this coming out every year, not because he’s so right but rather that he’s so thorough, pretty thoughtful, and that it provides a great basis for discussion.

Enjoy.

Yeah, I have always sought out his projections. You can definitely tell he puts a lot of work and care into them. Projections are obviously conservative in nature, so the outcomes will end up being very different, but I enjoy seeing his projections on workload and target shares.

I appreciate the effort these took but this is literally just players stats from last year in most cases

These are always useful for projecting new situations more than anything.

StripesOfKC wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 1:58 pm I appreciate the effort these took but this is literally just players stats from last year in most cases

I mean, the idea behind projections is to attempt to hit the middle of their potential outcomes. Therefor, they will often look similar to recent years stat lines, especially if the previous year didnt have any huge outlier numbers like 20 tds for a wr or something. Its just something that is inherent in the system. Like Mike Clay says himself, projections are not rankings.

Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 11:58 am Mike Clay’s 2021 Projections for the entire NFL

Love this coming out every year, not because he’s so right but rather that he’s so thorough, pretty thoughtful, and that it provides a great basis for discussion.

Enjoy.

Thanks for posting this. Another interesting resource

*Scrolls to Cam Akers*

Over 1400 total yards and 13 touchdowns!? What the heck, Mike!? Don't you know what's riding on this season ol buddy ol pal!?

*Scrolls to RB Ranks*

Oh, RB11. OK.... so there will be 10 RBs that have a season better than 1400 total yards and 13 TDs?..... I dunno about that.....

dlf_mikeh wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 5:58 am *Scrolls to Cam Akers*

Over 1400 total yards and 13 touchdowns!? What the heck, Mike!? Don't you know what's riding on this season ol buddy ol pal!?

*Scrolls to RB Ranks*

Oh, RB11. OK.... so there will be 10 RBs that have a season better than 1400 total yards and 13 TDs?..... I dunno about that.....

There were 10 RBs that hit a ypg average that would have gotten them there last season, 3 more that were within an eyelash of doing it, and no CMC on the list.

Clay is using each RB playing 15 games with a few at 14 games. Injuries will play a part in how many RBs can hit that total yard threshold, but his total isn’t outside the boundaries of being very reasonable given his games played assumption.