Dynasty League Football Forum

2nd. I assume most would want a 1st though

Okay, staking my controversial flag. We started talking about this in the week 1 thread, but I thought I would put it out there in its own spot so people can angrily ask me if I watched him play last night all together.

Now into some numbers...

Since 1999 amongst all RBs we have measurements for, only five weighed 179 pounds or less: Dexter McCluster, Dri Archer, Noel Devine, DeAnthony Thomas, and Donnel Pumphery. All of them are basically 2" taller.

Only six were 66.5" or shorter: Robbie Rouse, Jacquizz Rodgers, Darren Sproles, Antwon Bailey, Branden Oliver, and Dion Lewis. All of them weigh around 200 pounds - Sproles is the closest at 187.

And everyone loves the Sproles comparison, but Sproles is a compact box of muscle, with his bench press in the 74th percentile (23 reps). In fact, only 14 RBs since 1999 have done as few bench press reps as Cohen (11 reps): Kenyan Drake, Christian McCaffrey, Donnel Pumphrey, Jahad Thomas, Jon Cornish, Trey Watts, DeAnthony Thomas, Tre Smith, Donald Buckram, Lance Dunbar, Roy Helu, Buck Allen, Keon Lattimore, and Correll Buckhalter. Those 11 reps are in the 1st percentile for RB bench press.

Not a single name shows up on all of these lists... except Cohen. Actually the only ones that show up on even two of the three are Pumphrey and DeAnthony Thomas.

So yes, I'm basing my argument purely on his physical metrics and not on film - I'm a numbers guy. If he can have sustained success in the NFL while being basically record-setting short, light and weak, then he'll be a historic talent. It's possible, and would be pretty exciting if it panned out. But I'll let others sink roster spots into that bet.

(And yes, I watched him play last night and he loked way better than I expected. But one game isn't going to change my mind.)

His size is why I don't own him anywhere.

Also because heavily invested in Howard.

Sooooo I hope he doesn't become a solid 3rd down back

Warrick Dunn was less than 190lbs, with worse BMI than Cohen.

I would like to see Cohen put on 5-10 more lbs before he becomes a 10-15 carries a week guy, but the thing is, he can probably add that much weight pretty easily without losing any speed/burst, and probably will just from being on NFL-regimen weight-training. Cohen's low bench-rep score only seems to confirm that he, like many college players, didn't spend much time in the gym. He will now, because the NFL does a lot more to encourage it.

Dunn is obviously still an amazing outlier himself, but there's your precedent, OP.

Also, as the above all implies, I think you're misstepping putting so much emphasis on height when searching for relevant precedent. Height doesn't make a guy more durable, and other than a minor benefit to pass-catching and blocking ability, it doesn't help RBs. Height correlates with mass, and there's your real key metric here.

If selling I would try to get a first, and assume no one will give. I'll take a 2nd eventually if I cant end up getting a 1st. That's profiting because no way anyone grabbed him in the 2nd. I wouldnt keep, and I wouldnt buy.

Players have a tendency to announce themselves in this league and Cohen has done it in the preseason and now in Week 1, if free I would certainly grab him as a curiosity, but yes I would not go out of my way to acquire/roster him ... What was owning Dunn like in Fantasy?

ninotoreS wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:05 am Warrick Dunn was less than 190lbs, with worse BMI than Cohen.

I would like to see Cohen put on 5-10 more lbs before he becomes a 10-15 carries a week guy, but the thing is, he can probably add that much weight pretty easily without losing any speed/burst, and probably will just from being on NFL-regimen weight-training. Cohen's low bench-rep score only seems to confirm that he, like many college players, didn't spend much time in the gym. He will now, because the NFL does a lot more to encourage it.

Dunn is obviously still an amazing outlier himself, but there's your precedent, OP.

Also, as the above all implies, I think you're misstepping putting so much emphasis on height when searching for relevant precedent. Height doesn't make a guy more durable, and other than a minor benefit to pass-catching and blocking ability, it doesn't help RBs. Height correlates with mass, and there's your real key metric here.

Warrick Dunn is 3" taller, 187 pounds... and was drafted 20 years ago. Sproles seems like a better comp, though I don't have bench press info on guys from 1997 to compare that aspect. Being not-the-shortest-person-on-the-field seems like it matters quite a bit for receiving, all else equal.

Obviously none of Cohen's handicaps are impossible to overcome on their own. But all three together is, as I pointed out, unprecedented.

How much does it change things if it is 1.5ppr for RBs in a ppr league?

I respect your opinion, but I don't see how you can say let other people waste their time with him. Before yesterday he was practically free. And now we've seen his upside. I'm not gunna say he is going to be the next Barry Sanders, but surely there's a spot on your roster for someone who led a team in targets in his first game as a running back and looked good doing it. Metrics be damned

You really have to find the right owner. I don't see long term success so much as gadget back. I'd say he's one of the players that have amongst the most variable values at the moment. Some may scream first, but I can't imagine a single player I'd draft him over in the 1st round of the recent draft and probably not most of the second rounders, so I'd be a horrible team to try to offer him to and an easy one to get to trade him away cheap.

flashgordon12 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:43 am I respect your opinion, but I don't see how you can say let other people waste their time with him. Before yesterday he was practically free. And now we've seen his upside. I'm not gunna say he is going to be the next Barry Sanders, but surely there's a spot on your roster for someone who led a team in targets in his first game as a running back and looked good doing it. Metrics be damned

Well, I am being a little bombastic on purpose. Obviously I would roster the guy if he was free and my other choice was Christine Michael or whatever. But if I sounded too reasonable in the original post then it wouldn't be a proper hot taek.

The problem is your claim is too vague.

What is successful?

Top 10, top 20, top 36?

For one season, or sustained "success"?

Successful generally? Or successful relative to his draft position?

Bc, and you would agree, he scored many points yesterday, and had the opportunity for even more.

What exactly are you saying? He won't repeat yesterday every week? No, of course not, nor will Hunt or Alex Smith...or on the other side of the coin, leveon bell or Demarco Murray who let owners down

dude looks like a fire hydrant charged with electricity ! is that bombastic enough ? being short & lacking prowess at the bench press is not good but being 3 inches shorter than dunn at only 8 lbs. less is a benefit to me , he has crazy quicks and agility , while never a bellcow he has a serious offensive role with his skills IMHO.

Was looking at some box score data, he was targeted 12 times in the passing game, led the team in targets..

I replied to a handful of threads this off season regarding Cohen as I believe he is too undersized to play RB in the NFL and I don't plan to let one week of production alter that take. If he can demonstrate continued success for the bulk of this season, then he's worth consideration. I have no problem if owners want to roster him for "practically free" but he's not someone I'd invest much in and personally not someone I would invest anything in at all.