Matt Breida: To the Fins

[Cowboysfan33]

I think he has a little. What surprises me is how after all of the hype that the 49ers offense has had this off-season, other than signing McKinnon, they haven’t really done anything. Maybe Jimmy GQ is that good but with all of the cap space that the 49ers have, I’m surprised that they haven’t been more active.

Niners offense blossomed in a big way in Jimmy G's five starts, and that was without Garcon and with Jimmy just picking up the offense on the fly. With an offseason of preparation and their #1 WR back, there's some reason to be excited. Shany's coached breakout seasons for Cousins and Ryan in recent years, and Jimmy G looks to be on track to continue the trend. This is why people are hopeful.

I agree they could've done more in free-agency, though. I'm guessing Shany just wants to build from the draft.

I think I was just assuming that with all of the cap space, that they would add a top notch WR, because if Jimmy G can do that with what he was playing with, I’m just imagining what he could with a guy like a AROB, etc but you never know, they could make a trade or take a WR in one of the early rounds. If nothing else, at least they can carry their cap space over to next season, I don’t know who all they have as FAs in 2019 but they should be among the top teams in available cap space.

[ninotoreS]

To be fair to Garcon, his PFF grade was quietly excellent last year before the neck injury, and he never got to play with Garoppolo. And Shanahan has a lot of history with Garcon, of course. I'm guessing Shanahan sees Garcon as a more than adequate stop-gap #1 WR for the next one or two seasons, so the Niners didn't feel it necessary to go too hard after Robinson or Watkins, who were both questionable big money investments as free-agents.

[ericanadian]

I think he has a little. What surprises me is how after all of the hype that the 49ers offense has had this off-season, other than signing McKinnon, they haven’t really done anything. Maybe Jimmy GQ is that good but with all of the cap space that the 49ers have, I’m surprised that they haven’t been more active.

Niners offense blossomed in a big way in Jimmy G's five starts, and that was without Garcon and with Jimmy just picking up the offense on the fly. With an offseason of preparation and their #1 WR back, there's some reason to be excited. Shany's coached breakout seasons for Cousins and Ryan in recent years, and Jimmy G looks to be on track to continue the trend. This is why people are hopeful.

I agree they could've done more in free-agency, though. I'm guessing Shany just wants to build from the draft.

Shanahan was long gone when Cousins broke out.

[ninotoreS]

Shanahan was long gone when Cousins broke out.

Oops. I was thinking '13 was Cousins' breakout.

Hmm. I wonder why Shany had such a hard-on for him before landing Garoppolo, then.

[ericanadian]

Shanahan was long gone when Cousins broke out.

Oops. I was thinking '13 was Cousins' breakout.

Hmm. I wonder why Shany had such a hard-on for him before landing Garoppolo, then.

The Shanahan's got fired because they wanted to play Cousins over RGIII. They clearly liked him in practice, but Snyder wasn't having it.

[jman3134]

I understand the draft capital argument and I see it on here a lot, but I think people are way too quick to dismiss this guy. While Alfred Morris has a track record and admittedly looks good, consensus pre signing was that Breida was going to split carries with pre-injury McKinnon.
https://www.49ers.com/news/don-t-sleep- ... ow-in-town

Suddenly, McKinnon is hurt and Alfred Morris (coming in with limited camp time) is the back to own? I am not buying it. Breida is the true definition of a sleeper and I expect him to put up some big numbers this year.

I believe that the dynasty community has been struck by the SPARQ false equivalency bug. Many recent examples of high level athletes have not translated on the football field (DGB, etc.). As a result, coupled with his poor Georgia Southern pedigree and college game tape (which should be written off to an extent due to situational factors), the fantasy world is largely ignoring a player who is situationally primed to have a big year. 138+ ADP for the starting RB on a revamped 49ers club is way out there.

Now, I understand that this will be a committee, particularly given the concerns some have over his weight at 200lbs. I don't think he will receive a full workload, but I do believe that he can thrive in this Shanahan offense.

I believe that the gametape supports this conclusion. His initial burst and acceleration are elite imho. He can catch passes in the backfield, despite some claiming to not see this on his college tape. His vision still does need some work, but if his line can create holes, Breida is an elite athlete who makes defenders miss.

[FantasyFreak]

I understand the draft capital argument and I see it on here a lot, but I think people are way too quick to dismiss this guy. While Alfred Morris has a track record and admittedly looks good, consensus pre signing was that Breida was going to split carries with pre-injury McKinnon.
https://www.49ers.com/news/don-t-sleep- ... ow-in-town

Suddenly, McKinnon is hurt and Alfred Morris (coming in with limited camp time) is the back to own? I am not buying it. Breida is the true definition of a sleeper and I expect him to put up some big numbers this year.

I believe that the dynasty community has been struck by the SPARQ false equivalency bug. Many recent examples of high level athletes have not translated on the football field (DGB, etc.). As a result, coupled with his poor Georgia Southern pedigree and college game tape (which should be written off to an extent due to situational factors), the fantasy world is largely ignoring a player who is situationally primed to have a big year. 138+ ADP for the starting RB on a revamped 49ers club is way out there.

Now, I understand that this will be a committee, particularly given the concerns some have over his weight at 200lbs. I don't think he will receive a full workload, but I do believe that he can thrive in this Shanahan offense.

I believe that the gametape supports this conclusion. His initial burst and acceleration are elite imho. He can catch passes in the backfield, despite some claiming to not see this on his college tape. His vision still does need some work, but if his line can create holes, Breida is an elite athlete who makes defenders miss.

He had one of the worst drop rates in the league last year, I believe. Personally I think that offense is going to be a borderline dumpster fire. I think all parties will disappoint. Breida is basically worthless, so if he can get you flex type numbers, then yes, he's undervalued, but I am not seeing how this offense is going to be good.

Curious what you mean by" big numbers"? Since you are planting your flag, how about a prediction?

[notweswelker]

I believe that the gametape supports this conclusion. His initial burst and acceleration are elite imho. He can catch passes in the backfield, despite some claiming to not see this on his college tape. His vision still does need some work, but if his line can create holes, Breida is an elite athlete who makes defenders miss.

Breida is the back to own. Hence why Breida has been owned since he was drafted and Morris was on the WW in dynasty leagues. That tells you all you need to know about honest judgment. Everyone who just picked up Morris off the scrap heap is yelling at the top of their homer voice he's the guy to own now. Sure buddies. Breida as a Freshman/Sophomore was rushing for 2+ yards more PER CARRY at the same college as Mckinnon until a coaching change his Junior year destroyed the offense. Breida is absolutely the back to own and it will become obvious in short order.

[jman3134]

Jimmy G is an up-and-coming QB. Shanahan has his speed guys who can stretch the D. Garcon will eat over the middle and Taylor will thrive in a Cole Beasley-style role. This is all barring a Goodwin injury, which will happen at some point given his history. A fully healthy SF 49ers offense is much improved imo.

The only reason I didn't predict anything in the first post is because I had some trouble finding prediction statistics for McKinnon. Going off of Terrell Davis' prediction back in July (https://www.ninersnation.com/2018/7/6/1 ... rell-davis), I think Breida's production will be less. I don't think Davis was accounting for Breida's greater role in the 49ers offense.

With that said, I am still bullish. I will go with 750 receiving yards and 450 rushing yards, or 1,200 total yards. I think this is a conservative projection, given Carlos Hyde's 1,290 total scrimmage yards last season. This accounts for a greater carry split than last season (with a greater RB total output), but I obviously expect Breida to lead the Breida-Morris committee.

[skip]

Jimmy G is an up-and-coming QB. Shanahan has his speed guys who can stretch the D. Garcon will eat over the middle and Taylor will thrive in a Cole Beasley-style role. This is all barring a Goodwin injury, which will happen at some point given his history. A fully healthy SF 49ers offense is much improved imo.

I don't agree at all with your analysis of the offense. This is quite likely the worst group of WRs in the league.

[jman3134]

Jimmy G is an up-and-coming QB. Shanahan has his speed guys who can stretch the D. Garcon will eat over the middle and Taylor will thrive in a Cole Beasley-style role. This is all barring a Goodwin injury, which will happen at some point given his history. A fully healthy SF 49ers offense is much improved imo.

I don't agree at all with your analysis of the offense. This is quite likely the worst group of WRs in the league.

Feel free to disagree. I don't think my basic analysis here is too outlandish though or counter-consensus. While the end of last season is probably a bit of a mirage, why wouldn't their offense be at least more in-line with that production after they get Garcon back from injury? I understand that those games were largely meaningless, but still.

Also, he put up those numbers coming in midseason. You don't think he will have a better grasp of the offense after a full offseason? At the very least you must respect Shanahan.

From a fantasy relevance perspective, Jimmy G put up ~260 yards per game, which would have ranked him 8th amongst QBs a season ago. Where are these passes going to? Or we are expecting a huge mean regression? Based on what?

[FantasyFreak]

Jimmy G is an up-and-coming QB. Shanahan has his speed guys who can stretch the D. Garcon will eat over the middle and Taylor will thrive in a Cole Beasley-style role. This is all barring a Goodwin injury, which will happen at some point given his history. A fully healthy SF 49ers offense is much improved imo.

I don't agree at all with your analysis of the offense. This is quite likely the worst group of WRs in the league.

Feel free to disagree. I don't think my basic analysis here is too outlandish though or counter-consensus. While the end of last season is probably a bit of a mirage, why wouldn't their offense be at least more in-line with that production after they get Garcon back from injury? I understand that those games were largely meaningless, but still.

Also, he put up those numbers coming in midseason. You don't think he will have a better grasp of the offense after a full offseason? At the very least you must respect Shanahan.

From a fantasy relevance perspective, Jimmy G put up ~260 yards per game, which would have ranked him 8th amongst QBs a season ago. Where are these passes going to? Or we are expecting a huge mean regression? Based on what?

Small sample size last year. We don't know what Jimmy G is yet. We need more time to find that out.

[jman3134]

I probably should choose my words more wisely moving forward. Obviously, we can't really draw any statistically significant conclusions from a 16-game slate. And team composition can dramatically change over the years, so it isn't fair to look at multiple seasons on equal footing.

Still, as fantasy owners, we do draw conclusions based on production over the course of one season. Why, then, is over a third of the season too small of a sample size? This distinction seems arbitrary.

For those of you who agree with the above assessment, do you apply the same logic to Deshaun Watson?

[kamihamster]

I see Breida as what Rojo truthers hope Rojo to be. Breida has more wiggle than Rojo, but Rojo has more top speed. Both are too small for my liking to be an every down back, but Shanahan is a smart coach and will use Breida in a way that will maximize his touches. Morris is a good compliment to Breida, but it can become predictable when they see one or the other back out there for the defense and will probably cap their celings a bit. Underrated, yes, but I will be trying to flip him after a few good games for maybe a 2020 1st and a depth guy.

[Irbir]

Jimmy G is an up-and-coming QB. Shanahan has his speed guys who can stretch the D. Garcon will eat over the middle and Taylor will thrive in a Cole Beasley-style role. This is all barring a Goodwin injury, which will happen at some point given his history. A fully healthy SF 49ers offense is much improved imo.

I don't agree at all with your analysis of the offense. This is quite likely the worst group of WRs in the league.

The Bills beg to differ