Thoughts on Rashaad Penny?

[AussieMate]

I agree with Jason that there is potential for MASSIVE workload here, but man. I hated Penny's tape. I know he blew up the combine but I didn't see that athleticism on film.

Man I am right there with you. I am having trouble rationalizing how unimpressed I was with his tape with how gaga NFL teams seem to be over him. He looked like a 3rd-4th rounder to me but Seattle reportedly would have taken him as high as 18, there was another team (rumors are it was NE) that offered to trade from him once he was off the board at 28, and the Browns reportedly desperately wanted him at 33 over Chubb.

I'm with both of you, I'm going to have to go back over his tape after what you said about NE and Brown's. I just didn't see it the first time, hopefully I pick something up on the second watch.

[Pullo Vision]

GM John Schneider on Penny- “He had some really interesting analytics and stats about him with durability, run after contact, run after first contact. He actually, of this group [of running backs], was number one in both categories.”

[Vcize]

GM John Schneider on Penny- “He had some really interesting analytics and stats about him with durability, run after contact, run after first contact. He actually, of this group [of running backs], was number one in both categories.”

Yeah but how useful are analytics like YAC when we are talking about such a different level of competition? If we could make two copies of the same player and stick one in the Mountain West Conference and one in the SEC surely the copy playing in the Mountain West would rack up better YAC numbers even if they were the same player.

[Pullo Vision]

GM John Schneider on Penny- “He had some really interesting analytics and stats about him with durability, run after contact, run after first contact. He actually, of this group [of running backs], was number one in both categories.”

Yeah but how useful are analytics like YAC when we are talking about such a different level of competition? If we could make two copies of the same player and stick one in the Mountain West Conference and one in the SEC surely the copy playing in the Mountain West would rack up better YAC numbers even if they were the same player.

Completely agree. Can't wait until I have time to examine Penny's film to see if I see what NFL teams seem to have.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I just had an epiphany. Penny could get a LOT of passes thrown his way this year. Think about it. They took him round 1 so we know they’re going to use him a lot. Their O-Line is bad (supposedly) so how do you make a rb productive with a bad O-line.... you involve them in the passing game. Their receivers are poor, Baldwin is the only one of note. Their TEs are garbage. All these targets are going to go somewhere. What do you do with a special offensive talent that can’t block a’la Evan Engram.. you say to hell with it and send them out for passes every play. Just reading the tea leaves it seems he might catch an inordinant amount of passes this year.

[FantasyFreak]

I just had an epiphany. Penny could get a LOT of passes thrown his way this year. Think about it. They took him round 1 so we know they’re going to use him a lot. Their O-Line is bad (supposedly) so how do you make a rb productive with a bad O-line.... you involve them in the passing game. Their receivers are poor, Baldwin is the only one of note. Their TEs are garbage. All these targets are going to go somewhere. What do you do with a special offensive talent that can’t block a’la Evan Engram.. you say to hell with it and send them out for passes every play. Just reading the tea leaves it seems he might catch an inordinant amount of passes this year.

I think you mean an epipenny.

[FantasyFreak]

GM John Schneider on Penny- “He had some really interesting analytics and stats about him with durability, run after contact, run after first contact. He actually, of this group [of running backs], was number one in both categories.”

Yeah but how useful are analytics like YAC when we are talking about such a different level of competition? If we could make two copies of the same player and stick one in the Mountain West Conference and one in the SEC surely the copy playing in the Mountain West would rack up better YAC numbers even if they were the same player.

Agreed. Chubb, for instance fought for YAC on some runs where I can't see Penny making.

[Jason3123]

Looking at raw catching stats doesn't tell the whole story. Rotoviz did an article earlier this off-season discussing receiving market share for running backs, and highlighted Penny versus Guice. Guice caught 18 passes, Penny 19, in 2017. But when you consider San Diego State only averaged 19 passes a game, and threw to RB's even less than other teams, Penny actually had 77% of his team's RB's receiving yards. Significantly higher than Guice, who only accounted for 15%. Per Scott Barrett of PFF, Penny also led all combine invite RB's in yards per route run. There's definitely some potential for his receiving ability. He also caught 11 of 13 targets versus power 5 schools.

More fun stats:

3.32 yards per carry when contacted at or behind the LOS. #1 out of 58 RB's scored by PFF.
He averaged more yards per carry (7.5) than Josh Allen did per attempt (6.7), in the same conference.
1,295 yards after contact is the most among all drafted RB's.
His 123.3 elusive rating on PFF was also #1 in the draft class.

[Magic derivative]

GM John Schneider on Penny- “He had some really interesting analytics and stats about him with durability, run after contact, run after first contact. He actually, of this group [of running backs], was number one in both categories.”

Yeah but how useful are analytics like YAC when we are talking about such a different level of competition? If we could make two copies of the same player and stick one in the Mountain West Conference and one in the SEC surely the copy playing in the Mountain West would rack up better YAC numbers even if they were the same player.

Agreed. Chubb, for instance fought for YAC on some runs where I can't see Penny making.

This is a super unfair comparison. Chubb wins in a completely different way than Penny does. Penny has great quickness and vision. Penny's YAC comes from moving out of the way so there is minimal contact where as Chubb runs people over. In this way YAC is a bad measure of Penny since if a defender gets one figure on him then he goes for 10 yards he gets 10Y YAC.

The biggest question about Penny was if his vision and short area quickness would translate or if it was a result of a small school. The combine, Senior Bowl, and NFL scouts all say yes he can be explosive at the NFL level. I'm leaning on the combine, Senior Bowl, and NFL Scouts over my small school biases .... Oh also Hunt says hi .... Penny says he wants to be the next Hunt (explosive small school player).

I'm pretty sure Penny owes Hunt a 6-pack.

[Magic derivative]

Looking at raw catching stats doesn't tell the whole story. Rotoviz did an article earlier this off-season discussing receiving market share for running backs, and highlighted Penny versus Guice. Guice caught 18 passes, Penny 19, in 2017. But when you consider San Diego State only averaged 19 passes a game, and threw to RB's even less than other teams, Penny actually had 77% of his team's RB's receiving yards. Significantly higher than Guice, who only accounted for 15%. Per Scott Barrett of PFF, Penny also led all combine invite RB's in yards per route run. There's definitely some potential for his receiving ability. He also caught 11 of 13 targets versus power 5 schools.

More fun stats:

3.32 yards per carry when contacted at or behind the LOS. #1 out of 58 RB's scored by PFF.
He averaged more yards per carry (7.5) than Josh Allen did per attempt (6.7), in the same conference.
1,295 yards after contact is the most among all drafted RB's.
His 123.3 elusive rating on PFF was also #1 in the draft class.

YA PFF was obsessed with Penny.

[FantasyFreak]

Yeah but how useful are analytics like YAC when we are talking about such a different level of competition? If we could make two copies of the same player and stick one in the Mountain West Conference and one in the SEC surely the copy playing in the Mountain West would rack up better YAC numbers even if they were the same player.

Agreed. Chubb, for instance fought for YAC on some runs where I can't see Penny making.

This is a super unfair comparison. Chubb wins in a completely different way than Penny does. Penny has great quickness and vision. Penny's YAC comes from moving out of the way so there is minimal contact where as Chubb runs people over. In this way YAC is a bad measure of Penny since if a defender gets one figure on him then he goes for 10 yards he gets 10Y YAC.

The biggest question about Penny was if his vision and short area quickness would translate or if it was a result of a small school. The combine, Senior Bowl, and NFL scouts all say yes he can be explosive at the NFL level. I'm leaning on the combine, Senior Bowl, and NFL Scouts over my small school biases .... Oh also Hunt says hi .... Penny says he wants to be the next Hunt (explosive small school player).

I'm pretty sure Penny owes Hunt a 6-pack.

My point was against SEC competition, I don't think Penny would have nearly the same YAC. I have nothing against Penny, but facing a 1 on 1 with an Alabama LB is a completely different thing to facing a Fresno St. linebacker. I like Penny just fine, but the point is, it's easier to have YAC in Penny's conference vs the SEC.

[Jason3123]

Freak is right, Penny wouldn't have the same freakish #'s against the SEC, that's just common sense. But he also would've had a much bigger stage to show his talent and people would know his name and not hold the small school stigma against him, so it works both ways.

[bucsrule]

I just had an epiphany. Penny could get a LOT of passes thrown his way this year. Think about it. They took him round 1 so we know they’re going to use him a lot. Their O-Line is bad (supposedly) so how do you make a rb productive with a bad O-line.... you involve them in the passing game. Their receivers are poor, Baldwin is the only one of note. Their TEs are garbage. All these targets are going to go somewhere. What do you do with a special offensive talent that can’t block a’la Evan Engram.. you say to hell with it and send them out for passes every play. Just reading the tea leaves it seems he might catch an inordinant amount of passes this year.

This could very well happen. If he achieves ppr status, then his grade goes up again.

Thank goodness I don't have my rookie draft till August.

[ArrylT]

I just had an epiphany. Penny could get a LOT of passes thrown his way this year. Think about it. They took him round 1 so we know they’re going to use him a lot. Their O-Line is bad (supposedly) so how do you make a rb productive with a bad O-line.... you involve them in the passing game. Their receivers are poor, Baldwin is the only one of note. Their TEs are garbage. All these targets are going to go somewhere. What do you do with a special offensive talent that can’t block a’la Evan Engram.. you say to hell with it and send them out for passes every play. Just reading the tea leaves it seems he might catch an inordinant amount of passes this year.

I think you mean an epipenny.

So what you are saying is that the Seahawks plan to use him to treat the Defences who are allergic to giving up Yardage?

[Ruggenater]

Looking at raw catching stats doesn't tell the whole story. Rotoviz did an article earlier this off-season discussing receiving market share for running backs, and highlighted Penny versus Guice. Guice caught 18 passes, Penny 19, in 2017. But when you consider San Diego State only averaged 19 passes a game, and threw to RB's even less than other teams, Penny actually had 77% of his team's RB's receiving yards. Significantly higher than Guice, who only accounted for 15%. Per Scott Barrett of PFF, Penny also led all combine invite RB's in yards per route run. There's definitely some potential for his receiving ability. He also caught 11 of 13 targets versus power 5 schools.

More fun stats:

3.32 yards per carry when contacted at or behind the LOS. #1 out of 58 RB's scored by PFF.
He averaged more yards per carry (7.5) than Josh Allen did per attempt (6.7), in the same conference.
1,295 yards after contact is the most among all drafted RB's.
His 123.3 elusive rating on PFF was also #1 in the draft class.

That's a great stat