Dynasty League Football Forum

JFever wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.

YUP. Football is the worst sport to try and predict future success based on based statistics.

Well, yes and no Lucky. For some things and some statistics one can make future predictions. But, the thing is, all stats are not created equal. YPC is just way to interconnected and interdependent on so many other variables that it lessons it's actual meaning. When a fantasy owner uses ADP as their primary tool for judging trade value it is also a mistake. Bottom line is some stats are very telling of ability, lack of ability, ball security, etc. Some aren't. It is on you to be able to tell the difference. It grinds my gears when we go on and on about how YPC is telling about a players ability. Perhaps in a very minor way it is. But the other variables must then be mentioned, considered, and weighed. The plays that are called, the opponents, the score, the defensive play called, the health of the defense, the weather, the players that are in the game at the time the play is called, field position, down and distance. I mean.... not all things are as simple as just YARDS PER CARRY. YPC for one rb will have come to exist because of a multitude of factors that do not at all apply to another rb.

In football we take very small sample sizes of data to draw conclusions from. Baseball plays 162 regular season games, football has 1/10 of that. We extrapolate a lot and because of that we loose validity. With small sample sizes of data we should be careful when we label or draw conclusions.

The only things they might have in common is that they are rb that are getting hand-offs in an NFL game. How do otherwise intelligent folks not understand this concept? I'm legitimately curious.

JFever wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.

Come on J, you're twisting my words. My Gordon "hate" is taking him in the 3rd round of a startup instead of the 2nd.

I'm kinda fed up with the way you approach certain discussions. You talk in absolutes like you know exactly what the situation is (see: a certain off-topic discussion that won't go away) and completely disregard other opinions because you've done your research (so you must be right).

We get it, you're better than us. We're just over here with our fingers in our ears saying "lalala I can't hear you."

Well, I wasn't trying to twist your words. The 2nd / 3rd round of a start up thing - well, that's all good. I'm indifferent there. Its the way that you and others use YPC that gets too me. Too funny.... the off topic thread you speak of is a lot of fun. I do enjoy that type of discussion. I, in a way, feel that thread topics like that on are a moral duty of mine. I appreciate truth to a high degree. I'll stand up for it when needed. This one is a bit different as it is more about statistics and understanding where they come from. I don't find it confusing or difficult in anyway. If you continue to miss use or weigh YPC too heavily, I will simply continue to remind you that it doesn't mean what you think it means. By all means, you can continue to do what you like, but you certainly open yourself and your rational up to criticism. Kind of like the Off topic forum. If you make crazy claims of absolutes - you damn well better have the evidence to back your crazy claims up. See, it works here too.

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:46 am

JFever wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.

Come on J, you're twisting my words. My Gordon "hate" is taking him in the 3rd round of a startup instead of the 2nd.

I'm kinda fed up with the way you approach certain discussions. You talk in absolutes like you know exactly what the situation is (see: a certain off-topic discussion that won't go away) and completely disregard other opinions because you've done your research (so you must be right).

We get it, you're better than us. We're just over here with our fingers in our ears saying "lalala I can't hear you."

Aren't you being a little misleading though? You made it sound like Gordon was going to be out of the league similar to guys like Stacy and Richardson due to his poor ypc, and then you say you'd be fine taking him in the 3rd instead of the 2nd?

Goddard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:01 am

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:46 am

JFever wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:07 am I wonder if the day will ever come when people that play fantasy football understand statistics. I've been patient. Yet, day after day, month after month, year after year, people bring up YPC as a measurement of rb skill. Wake up people. It is a statistic that you can reference sure, but it doesn't tell you what you think it tells you. It just doesn't. it is that simple.

Dynastyninja brought up something on the previous page of this thread that made me nearly choke on my coffee. Said something to the effect that he wants "his" running backs to have YPC around 4.5. I hope that was sarcasm.

The Gordon hate is comical and nearly baseless. It shows a lack of a few things. It seems the people that are throwing the most shade at Gordon don't watch his games or don't understand basic concepts of cause and effect within the game of football. I get it that people like simple explanations to things. But, in this case, I firmly believe that you YPC folks are taking it too far and are missing something.

I'm so fed up with the YPC crap. It is like having a long repeating conversation with an over opinionated and under informed teenager.

Come on J, you're twisting my words. My Gordon "hate" is taking him in the 3rd round of a startup instead of the 2nd.

I'm kinda fed up with the way you approach certain discussions. You talk in absolutes like you know exactly what the situation is (see: a certain off-topic discussion that won't go away) and completely disregard other opinions because you've done your research (so you must be right).

We get it, you're better than us. We're just over here with our fingers in our ears saying "lalala I can't hear you."

Aren't you being a little misleading though? You made it sound like Gordon was going to be out of the league similar to guys like Stacy and Richardson due to his poor ypc, and then you say you'd be fine taking him in the 3rd instead of the 2nd?

I think you're talking about someone else. I haven't mentioned Stacy or TRich (and don't think he is a similar story).

^ And, this is exactly why I chimed in. I wasn't just talking to dynastyninja about this YPC thing. It was more of a broad comment. The dynastyninja thing was more on the (I like my rb to have a 4.5 ypc thing, which I almost spit coffee up on my desk about). Because YES, with the way some discuss YPC it is the be all, end all, predictive tool for rb ability, success, and career length (not including injuries of course). Just seems strange to me is all. I apologize if I come across as preaching, it comes natural. It is what I do...

I don't always know more than people. Just some times. lol. I do however come here to learn by reading what others submit.

JFever wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:08 am ^ And, this is exactly why I chimed in. I wasn't just talking to dynastyninja about this YPC thing. It was more of a broad comment. The dynastyninja thing was more on the (I like my rb to have a 4.5 ypc thing, which I almost spit coffee up on my desk about). Because YES, with the way some discuss YPC it is the be all, end all, predictive tool for rb ability, success, and career length (not including injuries of course). Just seems strange to me is all. I apologize if I come across as preaching, it comes natural. It is what I do...

I don't always know more than people. Just some times. lol. I do however come here to learn by reading what others submit.

Yeah my bad, I got a little heated there

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:04 am

Goddard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:01 am

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:46 am

Come on J, you're twisting my words. My Gordon "hate" is taking him in the 3rd round of a startup instead of the 2nd.

I'm kinda fed up with the way you approach certain discussions. You talk in absolutes like you know exactly what the situation is (see: a certain off-topic discussion that won't go away) and completely disregard other opinions because you've done your research (so you must be right).

We get it, you're better than us. We're just over here with our fingers in our ears saying "lalala I can't hear you."

Aren't you being a little misleading though? You made it sound like Gordon was going to be out of the league similar to guys like Stacy and Richardson due to his poor ypc, and then you say you'd be fine taking him in the 3rd instead of the 2nd?

I think you're talking about someone else. I haven't mentioned Stacy or TRich (and don't think he is a similar story).

My bad, had to go back and check. You're right, that was someone else...but you did say you wouldn't invest significant capital, but to me, a 3rd isn't that far off from a 2nd in startups. Saying you wouldn't invest significant capital makes it sound like you wouldn't take him in the first 5 rounds and would probably just prefer him as your RB3/flex. I was also confused about the preference of wanting your RBs to average 4.5 ypc, especially since there are very few RBs that did that last year and most of the top RBs weren't all that close.

I think we all have different opinions on these things and a healthy back and forth discussion is a good thing. I'm ok with anyone not liking a certain player for whatever reason. The thing that gets a reaction out of me is when we take meaning from something when it really isn't there. In this case, I'm just talking about some folks opinion on the YPC thing. It is some thing to discuss and it does give us something to compare rb's to rb's. But, if we don't understand what goes into this stat, then, maybe it isn't as meaningful. I don't think NFL offensive coordinators look at a 3.9 ypc rb and quickly come to the conclusion that he is crap. There are just too many variables. I hope I'm being clear enough on this. I'm really not trying to be a douche bag. Maybe, one day, we can all continue to raise our awareness of just how to use statistics. Bottom line is - in fantasy and in the NFL, YPC really means very little. Sometimes we put a disguise on it and call it "efficiency". Well, it all must be taken into context. This is why you should watch the games. I'm all cool with analytics and looking into as many numbers, and data points as possible, but, if none of that is taken into context, it then looses street cred.

Goddard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:14 am

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:04 am

Goddard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:01 am

Aren't you being a little misleading though? You made it sound like Gordon was going to be out of the league similar to guys like Stacy and Richardson due to his poor ypc, and then you say you'd be fine taking him in the 3rd instead of the 2nd?

I think you're talking about someone else. I haven't mentioned Stacy or TRich (and don't think he is a similar story).

My bad, had to go back and check. You're right, that was someone else...but you did say you wouldn't invest significant capital, but to me, a 3rd isn't that far off from a 2nd in startups. Saying you wouldn't invest significant capital makes it sound like you wouldn't take him in the first 5 rounds and would probably just prefer him as your RB3/flex. I was also confused about the preference of wanting your RBs to average 4.5 ypc, especially since there are very few RBs that did that last year and most of the top RBs weren't all that close.

In my mind there's a pretty noticeable drop-off from 2 to 3 in terms of value. Gordon's current value puts him at right around three random 1sts. I wouldn't feel comfortable paying anything more than two random 1sts.

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:55 am

Goddard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:14 am

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:04 am

I think you're talking about someone else. I haven't mentioned Stacy or TRich (and don't think he is a similar story).

My bad, had to go back and check. You're right, that was someone else...but you did say you wouldn't invest significant capital, but to me, a 3rd isn't that far off from a 2nd in startups. Saying you wouldn't invest significant capital makes it sound like you wouldn't take him in the first 5 rounds and would probably just prefer him as your RB3/flex. I was also confused about the preference of wanting your RBs to average 4.5 ypc, especially since there are very few RBs that did that last year and most of the top RBs weren't all that close.

In my mind there's a pretty noticeable drop-off from 2 to 3 in terms of value. Gordon's current value puts him at right around three random 1sts. I wouldn't feel comfortable paying anything more than two random 1sts.

If we're basing this off of ADP, where Gordon is currently at 20, a 3rd rounder seems to be someone like Guice, Cooks, Arob, Davis, Mixon, Freeman, Diggs, Kelce. These guys are all worth around the 1.02-ish, which I'm assuming is where you would rank Gordon based on the 3rd round value. I'd say that's making a significant investment. Heck, even two random 1sts is a significant investment. So either you like Gordon more than you make it sound, or we have different definitions of investing in significant capital. Not trying to make this into a thing, just trying to figure out where you're coming from.

Goddard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:04 am

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:55 am

Goddard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:14 am

My bad, had to go back and check. You're right, that was someone else...but you did say you wouldn't invest significant capital, but to me, a 3rd isn't that far off from a 2nd in startups. Saying you wouldn't invest significant capital makes it sound like you wouldn't take him in the first 5 rounds and would probably just prefer him as your RB3/flex. I was also confused about the preference of wanting your RBs to average 4.5 ypc, especially since there are very few RBs that did that last year and most of the top RBs weren't all that close.

In my mind there's a pretty noticeable drop-off from 2 to 3 in terms of value. Gordon's current value puts him at right around three random 1sts. I wouldn't feel comfortable paying anything more than two random 1sts.

If we're basing this off of ADP, where Gordon is currently at 20, a 3rd rounder seems to be someone like Guice, Cooks, Arob, Davis, Mixon, Freeman, Diggs, Kelce. These guys are all worth around the 1.02-ish, which I'm assuming is where you would rank Gordon based on the 3rd round value. I'd say that's making a significant investment. Heck, even two random 1sts is a significant investment. So either you like Gordon more than you make it sound, or we have different definitions of investing in significant capital. Not trying to make this into a thing, just trying to figure out where you're coming from.

I like Gordon just as much as I have explained so far. Significant is relative here. A 1st round pick can be considered a significant investment, but it's far from significant when I'm buying someone with an ADP of 20.

Paying three 1sts for a player I'm not 100% confident in could really set my team back. Two 1sts seems like more of a reasonable price given that he will probably produce as a RB1 in the short-term.

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:29 am

Goddard wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:04 am

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:55 am

In my mind there's a pretty noticeable drop-off from 2 to 3 in terms of value. Gordon's current value puts him at right around three random 1sts. I wouldn't feel comfortable paying anything more than two random 1sts.

If we're basing this off of ADP, where Gordon is currently at 20, a 3rd rounder seems to be someone like Guice, Cooks, Arob, Davis, Mixon, Freeman, Diggs, Kelce. These guys are all worth around the 1.02-ish, which I'm assuming is where you would rank Gordon based on the 3rd round value. I'd say that's making a significant investment. Heck, even two random 1sts is a significant investment. So either you like Gordon more than you make it sound, or we have different definitions of investing in significant capital. Not trying to make this into a thing, just trying to figure out where you're coming from.

I like Gordon just as much as I have explained so far. Significant is relative here. A 1st round pick can be considered a significant investment, but it's far from significant when I'm buying someone with an ADP of 20.

Paying three 1sts for a player I'm not 100% confident in could really set my team back. Two 1sts seems like more of a reasonable price given that he will probably produce as a RB1 in the short-term.

Makes more sense now. I still disagree and think there isn't much of a difference in value between Gordon and most of the guys I listed going in the 3rd, so I have no problem with someone taking those guys over him. But I still think the investment is around the same for all of them. Either way, I was just trying to figure out where our opinions differed on Gordon, because it doesn't sound like the valuations are that far off. The ypc thing also threw me off because it made it sound like you thought Gordon was a bad RB and wouldn't really have much of a future, even if you didn't actually say it like that.

This thread inspired me to go buy Gordon (2 late 1sts & 2nd), thanks guys; the more I dug into him the more he looked like a great buy low.

I think he is going to do great things behind this revamped offensive line.